"How difficult is to find a ford? " Topic

"During the Bunzlau scenario, the Karpov's Cossacks were trying to find a ford upstream the watermill. If they had found it, they could have crossed the river Bober outflanking the French defense.
Although the capabilities of irregular cavalry units in Lasalle are quite limited (despite my home rule), the presence of this force in the area had surely hampered the French defense of the bridge and would have contributed, in combination with the frontal attack of Prussian infantry, to the Allied victory.
To find a ford, the Cossacks were to be in contact with the river for a full turn without doing anything else, and roll a die. A result equal or greater than 4 would mean that a ford had been found, and the Cossacks could have passed the river the next turn. However, they were seeking for a ford for 6 consecutive turns with negative results!
The chances of such an event can be found by means of statistics. The problem is based on the binomial distribution, B(n,p), that gives the probability of the number of successes in a sequence of n independent yes/no experiments, each of which yields success with probability p. In our case, n=6 and p=0,5 (a ford is found by rolling 4, 5 or 6 with 1D6). Using the adequate formula, the probability to achieve 6 failures in 6 successive rolls can be calculated as 0,5^6 = 0,015625 = 1,56%…"
From my friend Rafa link.
link

Amicalement
Armand

Well, as the old sage said: "If you can't afford a dodge, dodge a FORD."

Naw. In all seriousness, in any unfamiliar territory the first thing scouting light cavalry would do is seek out a "volunteer" local guide. You just explain that you intend to chuck him into the river, with his hands tied. If he can find a shallow bit he stands more chance. Works every time. I am only half joking……….local knowledge for pathways, tracks, fords, bridges…..cannot be beaten and was an immediate priority.

You are right deadhead.

Amicalement
Armand

nice one…….

Also fords often have tracks leading into and out of them because they are used, Often by cattle.

I've used similar "dice to find a ford" rules in scenarios – a lot of my ganes have rivers in them I've noticed – they produce choke points for an advance and I guess I find that interesting. However, in reality it's often very easy to find out if a ford is not there – a fairly cursory glance will show banks that are not broken down and that the water is either deep or fast or both.

Implicit in the search rule is that there may be a ford. If the river is truly unfordable (as the cossacks in this example in the OP found) then perhaps they should have found that out quicker. If the argument is made that it's marginal then there should be an option for finding a ford that reckless people might use, or a shallow enough place to swim horses across even if it too deep for foot.

I'm going to have to think about this….

Hi
Evidently 20thmaine is right: "may be a ford" was the formulation of the rule. The rationalization of the failure could be, for example, a nearby pub loaded with local friendly girls ;-p

When I was doing my military duty I sucked at using the compass to find my position on a map (azimouth or what have you not). So one day one of the lieutenants chided me and told me how are you going to find your way in unknown territory. As the terrible human being I am I said with all innocence, I will go to the first human habitation I find, grab the first adult I find, and force them to show me or buy them to show me depending on how much stuff and if I am in a good mood. That probably makes me a potential war-criminal. The lieutenant did point out that they may lie. In perfect innocence I answered, well then, I probably will die.

That is the answer a lot of us tended to give to our officers when they asked us things we could not answer. Like

What will you do if you run out of ammunition: We die

What will you do if you are attacked by aircraft: We die

What will you do if war happens: We surrender and then die.

What will you do if you do not have a map: we die

Generally speaking as on old lieutenant who rose through the ranks told me the Greek soldier is not half bad: he mumbles and whines a lot but does what he is told, and he is very stoic about death it seems :p

Ah, military service. Such a lousy and fun time.

Well 300 of your chaps seemed to do OK according to this awful film that keeps appearing on Sky TV. They meurt, mais ne se rend pas or what ever Cambronne said. Despite wearing very skimpy leather shorts and showing some very disturbing tendencies they still held out against what look like ninjas in the Persian army…led by a very dodgy chap….and a character with crab's claws.

Must be my age. I do not understand a word of it. Not enough nudity (well female anyway) or decent battles, so I'll stick to GoThr or LOTR or Rome….

I still say it is self evident and universal practice to this day. Find a local and tell him you will chuck him in…….you will soon find the ford.

The same happened to the russian army at the berazina river? greetings serge joe