"Uncle Vladimir is Rattling Sabers..." Topic

link

I would be much more worried if it was a quiet mobilization. Calling a sudden exercise is to remind people of what they did in Georgia not too long ago.

Cossacks vrs Tartars looks like the real powder keg in this scenario.

Yeah … old habits die hard with former KGB types … it will be interesting to what comes of it. But yes, nothing but posturing, blustering and or course the rattling of sabres, the clanking of tracked vehicles, etc, etc. …

If I was the Ukraine, I'd be more worried about getting help from American financial "experts."

if they would really invade Ukraine that would lead to war against NATO !

No NATO only gets involved if Polish forces become involved as Ukraine is not part of NATO at present.

On the other hand… :-)
link

"If I was the Ukraine, I'd be more worried about getting help from American financial "experts." --- choose your poison. better to use the russian model of economics, where you throw a billion dollars at something and 100 million gets there, the rest into the pockets of gangsters?

by the way i wonder what we would be doing if there was an uprising in mexico and a government like hugo chavez was about to set up shop? point is that ukraine is right in russias neighborhood…..

Does no one remember 1939?

. . . and, of course, things didn't go well in 1945 when Ukraine was liberated. Or Estonia. Or Lithuania. Or. . .

Kabrank is exactly right. Nato would not intervene if Russian "peace keepers" entered the Ukraine.

If they did though, its not entirely unrealistic to see Poland get dragged into this scenario, which of course would prompt Nato involvement.

Fingers crossed, Russia just sticks to posturing and doesnt try to "liberate" the Crimea.

Who has the better equipment? Who has more modern equipment? Ukraine or the Soviets? They are Soviets to me until the KGB and the rest of the Reds are gone. A communist by any other name is still a communist.

Just wondering if the Ukraine military would or even could oppose a Russian 'peace keeping' force? I honestly don't know, hence the question, also does Ukraine hold any nukes?

Ukraines military has only mildly been updated since 1991. The Russians have done a much better job of modernising their military. Ukraines T-72 fleet could probably stand up to Russian 80's & 90s but the Russians would likely achieve total air dominance.

If Ukraine weathers this dispute and turns around their economy I would expect to see them update their military with the help of Western Tech, similar to what Poland has done since joining Nato.

Overall I dont think the Ukrainians would put up much resistance. Units with heavy Russian speaking populations would not have any desire to go into combat.

I could forsee a lengthy guerilla war (ala Chechnya) but not a long conventional war.
link

Many thanks Uesugi, the possibility of another Chechnya? Quite feasable, I wonder if it would 'encourage' Chechnyan fighters to redouble their effort, death from a thousand cuts, so to speak?

No, not at all likely. Chechnya is disputed Russian territory. Ukraine has been independent (and acknowledged by Russia) since 1991. While they may not be NATO, I highly doubt the west would accept Russian military forces crossing the border.

Geoff, so, the possibility of 'the West' (Polish?) forces becoming involved or a more covert approach?

Someone will be along soon to pronounce a "red line", which will be meaningless, but obligatory, nonetheless.

Well the U.S. will do nothing. We depend on Russia for our space program.

And, a lot of our Vodka!

Mako, my thoughts too, lots of hot air from the EU, red lines not to be crossed etc, and when Putin's lads cross them in the name of 'protecting the ethnic speaking Russian peoples'what then? What nation, if any, in Europe, including the UK (sorry, I don't class us as European )would have the balls, the capacity or public desire to interfere? The only countries in Europe with anything resembling a decent armed forces are Germany, so not a chance there, France, well they've been very quiet and have eyes elsewhere, Poland, was'nt that long ago that they were under the Russian cloak, so don't think they'd risk anything. Then there's the rest of the EU who probably could not raise a regiment between them, even if they had the political desire, that leaves the UK and the good ole US of A. Well in the UK I think it would be a hard sell, and the main man had his knuckles rapped by the MP's the last time military intervention was advocated, plus the way our dear leaders have been reducing the armed forces, well I can imagine the head of Britain's armed forces reaction if asked on a possibility of putting boots on the ground! Probably send a box with some size 10's in! Then there's America, hard to say, but can't see them getting involved, not so soon after Iraq and afghan, so, what really does Putin have to worry about?
Course on the other hand, he might just grab the crimea and let Europe have the rest, debt and all!

Creating Kosovo opened this Pandora box. I guess Russia can play it nice – wait for local parliaments decision of autonomy, set dates for referendums and wait. If new Ukrainian government will try to stomp this "separatism" (and having that many dire nationalists there, they will most likely try to suppress exactly what they have done on their own in Kiev) Russia might act.
Not that our politicians really want it – as I said in different thread, too much responsibility and hungry people, too little gain, and you still have NATO ar your border.
Crimea is most likely candidate for secession, having Russian majority and Russian troops already…

It's good for the 'what if' gamers, Russia crosses the border, taking advantage of the lack of an effective Ukrainian government and localised anti+Russian sentiment and oppression, rolling towards Crimea.

NATO makes lots of noises and protests, but isn't too keen on getting involved directly. Ukraine does its best to mobilise leading to sporadic clashes, but the high volume of Russians within the Ukrainian armed forces unwilling to engage Russians leaves them unable to mount an effective defence.

Then at the request of the current pro-European Ukrainian government Polish tanks break ranks with NATO and cross the western border…

In real terms, however, I can see lots of veiled threats and political rhetoric, but not much action.

South Ossetian declared themselves independent from Georgia. Georgia refused to recognise the independence, leading to military action and Russian intervention. There is too much anti-Russian protest in Crimea for them to effectively declare independence (although they are already an independent trade zone), although I do note the new political regime have declared separatism is a worrying possibility.

What might kick it of is an attempt to attack the Russian fleet.

Unfortunately NATO now being drawn in.

From BBC Site:-
Amid heightened tensions between Russia and the West, Nato has issued a statement saying it would continue to support Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Looks like I was right – Crimean parliament is initiating a referendum on the status of the peninsula. If it comes just to votes, they'll vote for secession or will be bartering for much broader autonomy. In this case Europe will just have to accept the will of the people, right?

I mean how stupid you can be, knowing that you're not too polular in the east and Crimea and start your reign with cutting the rights of ethnical minorities, demands to ban communist party and switching off russian TV….

Looks like some 50 persons[Soviet Spec Ops, local Russians ?] took over the parliament and the Russian flag is flying over it … at least thats what I heard on CNN … still waiting for confirmation …

Latest report is Russian special ops out of the naval base, but could just as easily be local pro-Russian individuals, possibly ex military.

Russian jets are patrolling the border. Yanukovich has popped up in Russia.

Barin, not sure the new Ukrainian government has taken such action or even such statements? – those comments seem to have come from a few vocal individuals on the street. I'm sure I can find a few individuals here with equally radical ideas that may never come into practice, but I agree that such daft comments (from them, not you!) are bound to stir up the wrong sort of reaction.

Russia has said that external agencies (clearly meaning the US and EU) must not interfere in Ukrainian politics. Of course it's in Russian interest if Crimea detaches itself; the lease on that naval base is expensive ;-)

Russia is right; the US should not interfere. No one should interfere; this is an internal Ukrainian problem that they need to work out themselves.

They have already banned special status of 2d language in the regions with high % of non-Ukrainians ( btw, Hungarians, are not pleased with that too ) . Svoboda and Right Sector ultra-nationalists, who are already in the interim government want get rid of Communist party of the Ukraine and Russian TV. ( link ) looks like they want to ban Yanukovich former party too…
Now it is not Yanukovich versus all, it may come to ethnic clashes. BTW, I think Russia shouldn't give him a shelter in any case – on the other hand, if he was caught in Kiev he could have ended like Caddafi…

Oh boy more ethnic cleansing just like Kosovo!
YouTube link
YouTube link
It's a Mistake!
YouTube link

Removing Russian language is a bit like banning English in Wales, romantic idea, but really not practical for a whole variety of reasons. And it can't be done overnight with a wave of legislation either without guaranteeing to stir up the very kind of sentiment they are trying to avoid.

Whether they like if or not, Russian language is heavily ingrained and would take a generation or two to work out. Much like Switzerland, they would likely become a multi-language society. Any Swiss here? How do they handle French/German/Italian with regards official documents and TV across the territory?

I agree, before it was all sides united at removing Yanukovich. While he may have deserved a lot of it, he became the single focus for every problem and illness in the whole system. Now he has gone it becomes much harder to get them all to agree, and we will see a lot more minor ethnic clashes for a while. Its going to need a very good politician who can do that.

Yep, Yanukovich really didn't have much choice other than to leave Kyiv if he wanted to keep his head attached. Heading to Russia was a risky proposition – they might just have easily added a little tap to the head for failing to handle the matter…

(sorry, deleted entry was a duplicated post)

"Nato has issued a statement saying it would continue to support Ukraine's territorial integrity".

Yea, and I'll bet they still want Assad to get rid of all his chemical weapons too, since they and the US heralded that agreement as such a "success". Last I heard, only 5% were destroyed, and now all of that has stopped, and the other 95% is being hidden around the country.

Funny, for some reason, there haven't been any status updates recently about that change, in the news.

Personally, I doubt the USA and/or NATO want to spend, or can afford to spend money on an adventure in the Ukraine, and surrounding territories.

My guess is Russia is better positioned, and more motivated to do that, if needed.

About the only way I see NATO getting involved in any real way is if some countries decide it would be beneficial to raise some large armies in order to put some of their citizens back to work, and to give them something useful to do.

I still think that very unlikely, though.

My guess is Yanukovich assumes he's more valuable as a puppet to Russia than dead, since he can stand as an exiled leader of the "legitimately elected" government.

Besides, where else could he go?

Few tyrants opt for suicide, when it comes right down to it.

Preparing for war: Putin puts 150,000 troops on standby as Muslim supporters of Ukraine's new government clash with pro-Russian group in Crimea.

"
Vladimir Putin mobilised more than 150,000 troops and an armada of ships yesterday for a drill to test the combat readiness of forces in western Russia as tensions over Ukraine continue to grow.

In addition to the soldiers – nearly twice the British Army's manpower after planned cuts – 880 tanks, 210 aircraft and 80 warships will take part in the operation.
The manoeuvres raised fears that the Russian president may be planning to send forces into Ukraine after the toppling of its Moscow-backed president Viktor Yanukovych…"
Full article here.
link

Bad news.

Amicalement
Armand

Incidentally, someone mentioned Ukrainian equipment further up. I believe the Ukrainians are still the only remaining users of the T-64 (which has been upgraded to a new standard), as well as the T-80 and their own upgraded version called the T-84 (IIRC new welded turret with a turret bustle), so it wouldn't be just T-72s plugging away at T-80s and/or T-90s…

link
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-84

Damon.

Saw on the news that the "exercise" is now taking place in Western Russia, just outside the Ukrainian border.

Apparently, they're putting on quite an air show.

Awful lot of Ukrainian countryside to drive through to get to Crimea…?

Good quick read. Mentions Crimea:

link

The Thai Army recently acquired some T-84 Oplots as part of quite a substantial order

YouTube link

Dunno if it's any good, but I do know I'd like to see one in 1/300th.

What are the odds that Cold Wars 2015 will have a game (or two) based on the Russo-Ukrainian Clash of 2014?

I'd say it's 50-50 at this point.

Putin may not even wait for Historicon. By July this could all be over, one way or another.

We'll see.

"Awful lot of Ukrainian countryside to drive through to get to Crimea…?".

Unless you go by sea, or air.

I wonder if it will go along the lines of;
'Pro Russian people in the Crimea attacked'
'Russian troops requested to assist police in quelling attacks in the Crimea'
'Crimea declares itself independent state'
'Russia recognises new independent state' and at the same time sends 'police keeping forces'
Russia keeps its naval base, puts a marker down to the EU and NATO and gets a springboard for any further 'requested' intervention.
Just wondering like!

Just heard the airport in the Crimea has been occupied by pro – Russian forces, I wonder if they've had any assistance, if you know what I mean?
Radio / TV stations next?

Cue the Russian airborne troops to fly in to the airport….

;-)

Cue the Russian airborne troops to fly in to the airport….

logical next move

Militants has left Simpheropol airport.
BTW, local Black Sea fleet has plenty of manpower of their own, including marines. I also have some doubts that all sailors in Ukrainian Black Sea Fleet will be keen to follow the orders from Kiev. Still hope that the situation will be going around referendum route without any military intervention from Russia or new Ukrainian government…

- Update, now it is not unknown militants, but Russian troops in Sevastopol ariport. Looks like militants were actually from another side ;)

Arrgh, I hate civil wars, I really do…

Reported as 'armed troops in uniform, but without markings'?

If they are Russian, then Russia should be saying why they are there, especially in light of confirmation yesterday that Russia will respect Ukrainian territory.

But what does "respect" really mean.

Reminds me of the question of what the definition of "is", is.

Politicians and dictators are superb at splitting hairs (usually of someone else) and parsing words.

The Black Sea Fleet has said they are not involved, but have stepped up security. Given that it is a military base, that is to be expected.

BBC News in Sevastopol reports that they have had no interaction so far with forces that occupy the main approach to the Sevastopol airport. They seem to be military, in unmarked uniforms, but not open to questions. Of course they may just be preventing any attempt (from either side) to access more serious military hardware.

Sevastopol is owned by the Ukrainian ministry of defence and is home to Ukraine's Mig 29s. Curious to know where the pilots and flight crews are based.

"…it would be of no real consequence that soldiers are guarding a military base were it not for the fact no-none knows whose orders they are obeying, and of course it follows a pattern."

Well, that was rather quick, wasn't it.

My guess is that we're at pre-bargaining stage. Russia wants to prevent Svoboda and RIght Sector militants getting to Crimea. Local militia is already controlling roads from Ukraine to Crimea, as well as railroad. So that leaves only airport. I guess it will be announced that Russians troops withdraw, but Moscow has no control over local militants…so they'll be staying there to prevent outside help. Final idea will be a guaranteed security for referendum, that will either result in independence of Crimea, or demands for further autonomy. At this point if Ukraine is not coming up with anything apart of nationalist militants, we'll see next round of confrontation…