"China vs. USA Scenario in the News" Topic

Granted, hopefully not likely, but I can see a small skirmish, or three around the Senkakus, and the South China Sea:

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I suspect you could use Shipwreck, and the old Victory Games 7th Fleet Boardgame to set up battles, and/or fight them out, with just a little modification.

1/300th or 1/600th scale aircraft for the dogfights, and anti-shipping attacks, using AirWar C21, or other rules.

On a related note, the Chinese carrier has just finished its training sortie in the South China Sea:

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Was it not Einstein who said that he knows not what WWIII will be fought with but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones?

A full scale American-Chinese War would be extremely devastating and I shudder to even imagine. Though I do think it is an unlikely future, I do foresee a lot of cyber attacks and proxy wars in America's future. The Chinese could really wreak havoc on us by propping up South American drug lords even more than the U.S. already does.

The Chinese won't get a chance to prop up SA Drug Cartels. The cartels themselves have already started running pipelines into South-East Asia – the Philippine authorities recently snatched up some mid-level couriers trying to run coke and heroin through the Sulawesi Sea Triangle. China would actually do well to stem the drug trade themselves – a strong drug distribution system could increase crime inside the PRC territories and become a direct threat to Beijing's control – no matter how destabilizing it might be to US and Western interests.

Or China "the corporate state" will decide the drugs are good for business and join in.

VCarter, it's already happening here with legalization of pot a done deal in many states (gotta use baby steps, everyone)

Why not there? Just another tool to keep the masses (sheep) preoccupied and/or numb.

Did the Chinese ever find any aircraft for that carrier?

Why not there? Just another tool to keep the masses (sheep) preoccupied and/or numb.

From what I am told, the Opium Wars are still very much in the Chinese psyche and they have a very strong stance against drug use. I have been repeatedly told that China has no addicts but addicts are executed.

Our sheep (in Colorado) flocked to the new shops.

There's money to be made on it. I would be ironic if the Opium war of the 21st century was to stop Chinese drug trade.

The PLAN stood up an Su-27 (Navalized) Flanker squadron as early as 2011 for use on their new carrier. They had been conducting Field Landing Practice ashore and had been training deck crew on a full-size mockup at a shipyard. They've been very much emulating the US Naval Aviation model, but nothing will replace the institutional experience they will accrue at sea. Some of their pilots might have had close encounters with "The Ramp Monster" while training afloat time-sharing with the Brazilian Navy on their CV, but they need time learning the hard lessons of how to operate away from the safety net of shore fields.

China has a long memory The Opium Wars are very much remembered in China. In Beijing there are the ruins of the former Summer Palace called Yuanmingyuan, destroyed by the French and British in 1860 There is a large sign there that basically states that this is what happens when China was weak,never again.

In 1954, 1958 and as late as 1998 US Carrier forces intervened in the Taiwan Straights when there was a crisis between Taiwan and mainland China. In 1998 the crisis was over the testing of Chinese ICBMs that Taiwan objected to. President Clinton moved in US carrier forces and in effect China had to back down. see Wiki for details This article also provides an idea of what the US did which may be an example for future crises

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Not coincidentally the Chinese purchased the Varyag beginning their carrier development As you know the Varyag is now the Chinese Liaoning

To China the presence of the US fleet in the Taiwan area would be akin to the reaction from the US if Chinese ships were in the Florida Straights or Gulf of California The development in Chinese naval power can be directly traced to 1998 and its main purpose would be to prevent a recurrence.

Admiral Mahan's concept of a "fleet in being will make the US think careful about what they (USN) will and can do.

I would suggest that the Chinese strategy would be to have one or more carrier task forces to the east of Taiwan sitting aside the communication links between the USN and its bases in Japan and other points. Supply and replenishment would become an issue as time went on.

Besides the carrier groups the US and Taiwan would be faced with land based aircraft and missiles putting them in an effective vise.

Any US commander would have a lot of thinking to do before entering such an area. One way to do so would be by a preemptive strike to take out either the sea based carriers or the land air and missile elements Either puts the US into the role of an aggressor so China would have a lot of foreign and domestic support should they retaliate.

This is classic Chinese strategy going back to Sun Tzu and the Military classics. Even Mao wrote "Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed"

BTW my wife watches Chinese internet TV and on the weekend CCTV broadcasted a lengthy documentary of the development of Carrier Aviation. It looks like the original English program was produced by the BBC and was interspersed with Chinese talking heads from the military and universities It also featured lots of shots on the current and planned carriers. One shot they kept on repeating was of crashes on board Soviet Carriers probably alerting the Chinese people that carrier development is not easy and that lives will be lost.

To Praetorian . Despite Chinese claim there is a drug problem in China One of the reasons that China is cracking down in the western areas is the shipment of drugs into that region from the 'Stans and from there on into China.

Frequent road checks catch a lot and the stops are an irritant to the local population who are regularly targeted. Chinese TV has had several stories on major drug seizures It is expected that drug use is increasing in Chin but because of the press control it is hidden.
Hong Kong which has a free press reports that drug seizures in 2012 were up by a third.

When I was in Beijing drugs were available and foreigners are always being approached with offers Of course you would be an idiot to even talk to these guys let alone buy for a lot are government narcs and the penalties, when caught are extreme. A foreigner would not be shot but certainly imprisoned and permanently deported

Reminds me of a book I've read back in the '90's entitled: "The Coming War with Japan" which became a bestseller: link and link . Maybe I'll co-author a book called "The Coming Sino-American Conflict" and see if the money rolls in.

They're not Aircraft Carriers-they are mobile skateboard parks.

Actually, it was supposed to be a floating casino, but someone obviously had other plans.

That article is very optimistic for the Chinese. EVERYTHING literally has to go correctly, and the Chinese have to be absolutely certain to the leave the US, to paraphrase Sun Tzu, "an out."

If they were to succeed as described, the US would indeed carry out a limited nuclear strike. China could not hope to match the US 1-for-1 on this. The US has gone on record as saying that a cyber attack will be met with a nuclear response.

The D-21 missile is overrated based on current intelligence and the author discounts the Aegis systems onboard the support vessels which can intercept them. Those same ships also take out Chinese satellites and they carry munitions capable of neutralizing China's land-based nuclear arsenal and they aren't as dependent upon the GPS system as the author believes.

More to the point, and this is the real reason why China will not attack the US overtly – the Chinese economy is absolutely dependent upon Americans continuing to purchase Chinese goods. The moment something overt happens, the trade doors close and Chinese factories shut down. Beijing is very, very sensitive to the possibility of civil unrest. China holds a very small fraction of US debt compared to that held by the US government itself so that "financial destabilization" tactic that some fear isn't as potent as believed.

What you essentially have are a pair of frenemy economies so intertwined as to ensure peace. Of course, that depends on the leadership of both countries remembering that.

Wyatt

The Chinese would just have to threaten economic measures against the U.S. We cannot afford to pay back the huge amount of U.S. debt they hold.

Also, pot is awesome. It should be legalized.

Sun Tzu is great but hardly the last word in military strategy. They study him and a lot of other treatises. In the end, strategy is simpler than people would think. A couple of feints and the real attack. It doesn't take a military genius to win but it does take a mind that grasps that simple is better and be wary of complication as it can fail.

There aren't many that would support China in any conflict. They have succeeded in alienating almost all of their neighbors and many former allies to include Viet Nam. The U.S. is probably closer to Viet Nam than China is at the moment. China is the 800 lb. gorilla in the East. Many would relish seeing her fail.

The way to defeat China is how it is currently being done. Over-dependence on jobs and funds related to exportation of finished goods. Imagine China with a trade embargo. We could adjust to other manufacturing countries; they could never adjust to just losing the U.S. as an export market at this point.

I get a kick out of how the Chinese brag about taking the long view on things. What do they think opening trade with the U.S. did? Certainly a long term view of how Capitalism eventually will undermine the most entrenched Totalitarian regimes. It wasn't just the 1980s arms race that did in the USSR, it was the need for trade and Capitalism. No other system produces the wide reaching innovations that free markets create. What China does have is increased buying power. This is their true weapon.

@Weesparky, the debt that China holds is a double edged sword. You also haven't been paying attention over the last couple of years. China does not hold the bulk of the U.S. debt. I believe that Japan and other countries do.

Regarding pot; talk to long term abusers of the drug and you will change your mind on the subject. Just as long term tobacco use is bad. The long term use of pot is bad for your brain and the smoke is probably worse for your system when unfiltered as well. The side effects of pot are numerous and many of them cause irreparable psychological effects to include brain chemistry alteration. Those that champion its use understand very little about it. There are numerous medical studies that do show pot to be harmful. Is this true for light usage, who knows? Do I want patients to have it for true medicinal needs? Sure, but a pill form would probably work just as well.

Great analysis Wyatt and I agree.

Mapleleaf, thanks for the overview of Chinese society and drug use. Most of what I know about China is from passing conversation with Asian historians or from news articles. I researched Yuanmingyuan and it has made my list of places I would like to visit. It must have once been a beautiful palace. Though when I read the reason for its destruction I could not blame the British and French.

I always hear that China will crush us when they pull the strings on the US debt they own. Yeah, right… Unless the Chinese elites have some deep abiding death wish, there is no way they would launch economic or cyber warfare with the intent of crippling the US (or the West in general). It would have the effect of slitting their own throats and throwing their own economy into chaos.

You also haven't been paying attention over the last couple of years. China does not hold the bulk of the U.S. debt…

Thanks to fractional reserve banking practices, only 3% of Dollars are backed. How much debt does China hold? Is it near 3% of Dollars in circulation? Is it greater than our GDP?

Also, here is a link to recent developments with the legalization of mara wahoochie in Colorado.. link

China Army plans to merge its 7 military regions into two districts to better coordinate all the forces.

"China army plans to merge four of its seven military regions into two districts to better coordinate the Army, Navy, Air Force and the Second Artillery Corps in a future combat environment, reports the Tokyo-based Yomiuri Shimbun, citing a source from the People's Liberation Army.
The source claims that the Jinan, Nanjing and Guangzhou military regions will be spared as they are necessary regarding any potential escalation of conflict over the disputed East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. However, the Beijing, Shenyang, Lanzhou and Chengdu military regions will be merged into two, reducing the country's seven military regions to five…"

Full article here
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Amicalement
Armand

"We cannot afford to pay back the huge amount of U.S. debt they hold".

Sure we can, as long as the printer ink and paper reserves hold out.

Or, would you prefer a freshly minted, Trillion Dollar coin?

@ancientsgamer long-term use of any "substance" including alcohol will have ill effects, not so? So no preaching (BTW) I am not a user of this or any narcotics,and of fairly sober habits (each to their own if it does not impact on any others I believe). I am of the opinion that the Chinese will do what the Iranians and others have done with ther not in my own back yard but business anywhere else goes (especially in the US) so legalizing these products in line with Alcohol and Tobacco will pull the plug to a large degree on these plans (and a large tax generation as well I might add as the price with tax is equal to street value without the stigma amd dangers involved either.) Of most concern to me is the imbalance of male to female ratio in China due to her previous population polices, they have a lot of frustrated youngsters out there needing an outlet and a lot of them like and use computers.. Cyber attacks will be the 1st start and ity will become a shooting mach (although limited and all about 'saving face' at a later stage) again many ways to play this one but played it will be. Cheers

Actually, it was supposed to be a floating casino, but someone obviously had other plans.

LOL.

Actually, that's not a bad idea. Probably more effective in the long run as well.

is the imbalance of male to female ratio in China due to her previous population polices, they have a lot of frustrated youngsters out there needing an outlet

And fed on a steady diet of pretty hostile "strategic communications" about Japan and the U.S.

For years, the Chinese government operated/has been operating on the belief that they can manipulate and control all aspects of society, including a monopoly on offensive power. That could have some serious repercussions.

It's not hard to envision freelancers (a nationalistic Chinese version of Anonymous, for example) launching major DDoS, etc attacks on Japanese and/or US government or infrastructure networks. Given the history of government-instigated attacks from China, it would easy to mistake these for "official" acts and provoke a response.

The Chinese would just have to threaten economic measures against the U.S. We cannot afford to pay back the huge amount of U.S. debt they hold.

China owes the US roughly a Trillion dollars, in the shape of loans to the previous governments of China (and I'm not talking about Taiwan). The current leadership of the PRC has this funny idea that because the money wasn't loaned during their leadership, the current government doesn't have to pay.

The entire rest of the world disagrees with that position.

From an article by Tom Murse on the about.com website. link

China and U.S. Debt

The largest portion of U.S. debt, 68 cents for every dollar or about $10 USD trillion, is owned by individual investors, corporations, state and local governments and, yes, even foreign governments such as China that hold Treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign governments hold about 46 percent of all U.S. debt held by the public, more than $4.5 USD trillion. The largest foreign holder of U.S. debt is China, which owns more about $1.2 USD trillion in bills, notes and bonds, according to the Treasury.

In total, China owns about 8 percent of publicly held U.S. debt. Of all the holders of U.S. debt China is the third-largest, behind only the Social Security Trust Fund's holdings of nearly $3 USD trillion and the Federal Reserve's nearly $2 USD trillion holdings in Treasury investments, purchased as part of its quantitative easing program to boost the economy.
Criticism of China Owning U.S. Debt

To put China's ownership of U.S. debt in perspective, its holding of $1.2 USD trillion is even larger than the amount owned by American households. U.S. citizens hold only about $959 USD billion in U.S. debt, according to the Federal Reserve.

Other large foreign holders of U.S. debt include Japan, which owns $912 USD billion; the United Kingdom, which owns $347 USD billion; Brazil, which holds $211 USD billion; Taiwan, which holds $153 USD billion; and Hong Kong, which owns $122 USD billion.

And from an article by Kimberly Amadeo on the same site..

Holding U.S. Debt Gives China Political Clout:

China's position as America's largest banker gives it some political leverage. Every now and then, China threatens to sell part of its debt holdings. It knows that, if it did so, U.S. interest rates would rise, which would slow U.S economic growth. For example, in June 2009 China called for a new global currency to replace the dollar, which is used in most international transactions. China does this whenever the U.S. allows the value of the dollar to drop, which makes the debt China holds less valuable.

What Would Happen If China Called In Its Debt Holdings?:

First, China would not call in its debt all at once. If it did so, the demand for the dollar would plummet like a rock. This dollar collapse would disrupt international markets worse than the 2008 financial crisis. China's economy would suffer along with everyone else's.

It's more likely that China would slowly begin selling off its Treasury holdings. Even when it just warns that it plans to do so, dollar demand starts to drop. This hurts China's competitiveness, as it raises its export prices, so U.S. consumers start buying U.S.-made products instead. China must further expand its exports to other Asian countries, and increase domestic demand, before it can call in its U.S. debt holdings.

It doesn't matter how much they owe us from previous deals, they can collapse our economy instantly. Any "what if" scenarios should start with them destabilizing the U.S., waiting a month, and then a methodical campaign of winning the hearts and minds of the U.S. citizens.

'The Chinese could really wreak havoc on us by propping up South American drug lords even more than the U.S. already does.'

Despite what they say officially, they have their own drug problems, no less severe than the US.

Today's SCMP had a report of 3,000 police, at least some of whom were armed, raiding a small village in Guangzhou, arresting 182 people and seizing 3 tonnes of meta-amphetamine – 'ice' I think it is called. The stuff on 'Breaking Bad'. According to reports, about 20% of the village, including the local party chief, were involved.

The SCMP is pay-walled, but here is a somewhat condensed version from the BBC.

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The longer South China Morning Post report contained some more interesting details, including that the village appeared well-armed with AK-47 knock-offs and hand grenades, and had actively resisted police raids in the past, though the weapons were probably more meant for protection against rival gangs than the police. It included an interview with a local farmer who said he could earn perhaps 700 RMB a month legally ($US115 or thereabouts) and that young people were tempted by the big money in drugs. It is a family, clan, and village based business, and this is just one village out of goodnesss-knows-how-many. Outsiders would stand no chance of infiltrating or doing business without local approval.

I have personally been offered drugs on the street of both Beijing and Shanghai. They are not rare. You can google where to buy drugs in Hong Kong (ChungKing Mansions). The only Asian city which I have visited where I have NOT been offered drugs on the street was Singapore. They are bad-ass.

The SCMP sometimes reports on HK street prices for drugs. I will keep my eye out to see if this raid has any effect on prices. I kind of doubt it.

Ahhh (update) here is the SCMP article btw. You are apparently allowed 10 free views of articles before the pay-wall kicks in, so you should be able to see it.

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Btw. The US 'debt' to China gives China every reason to hope for and support a strong US economy. Do you invest in something hoping it will fail?

'China owes the US roughly a Trillion dollars, in the shape of loans to the previous governments of China (and I'm not talking about Taiwan). The current leadership of the PRC has this funny idea that because the money wasn't loaned during their leadership, the current government doesn't have to pay.
The entire rest of the world disagrees with that position.'

Of course Taiwan (or the 'Republic of China' as they prefer) also claims to be the legitimate heir of all previous Chinese govts and to be the legitimate government of China, so they would be just as liable.

Ah, but the US is not recognizing Taiwan as the legit government of China and legit heir to all those loans that have never been paid.

So China could call in their US debt and the US could tell China "we'll write off the $1 USDt you owe us, and pay the remaining few billion by handing you a few $1 USDbn platinum coins."

The Chinese will scream, and the rest of the world will say, "ouch, sucks to be you guys!"

China's new president has to make some severe internal course changes this year or risk economic stagnation (or worse). China's Central Government spent 10% of GDP during the recession means to stave off the effects of the recession (hence the new-built ghost cities). The total amount of public and private debt is 200% of GDP and some percentage of those loans are bad, thanks to cronyism, etc. This is the same sort of financial practices that put Japan into a 20-year downturn. While it's easier for the Chinese to defend their borders than it was for the past 2000 years, that same technology lets the people communicate far easier. Chinese unrest is big simply because the country is big – and that's what keeps Party members up at night.

Wyatt

Good point! But I suspect such a plan would amount to financial Mutually Assured Destruction.

Post-USSR Russia ultimately recognised and repaid Pre-USSR debt, but I don't think that included 70 years of compound interest. It remains possible that Pre-PRC debt will be recognised.

' … and that's what keeps Party members up at night.'

That, along with their mistresses, the sumptuous banqueting, and the fact that casinos don't have clocks.

… you got that right Whatisitgood4atwork …

there is a lot of countries out there who would love if there was a us trade embargo with china, = new manufacturing plants and jobs in their own countries

That too, Wardog.

I have personally been offered drugs on the street of both Beijing and Shanghai. They are not rare.

No doubt. Those drug dealers are a bold bunch. So are the ones in Yunnan/Kunming. The only merchants I've ever seen that were more aggressive with their wares were the souvenir sells folks outside the Forbidden City! It would be easy for an addict to get their fix in the PRC.

WWW III is already being fought – and lost – with China with Stocks, Derivatives, and Real Estate, and the casualties are the 2 Million Americans unemployed due to outsourcing.

But there are lots of opportunities for skirmishes with Taiwan and Japan to have some sort of (reluctant) US involvement.