"DOD deploys troops to South Sudan indefinitely" Topic

"On Thursday, President Obama sent a letter to Congress informing them that 45 U.S. military personnel have been deployed to South Sudan "for the purpose of protecting U.S. citizens and property."

The deployment took place Wednesday, the same day that the U.S. Air Force evacuated 120 people from Juba, the capital of the country, as fighting among local factions escalated. The evacuees included U.S. and foreign diplomats as well as other American citizens. They were flown to Nairobi, Kenya.

…

"This force will remain in South Sudan until the security situation becomes such that it is no longer needed," he said
…"
Full article here.
link

Apart from an interesting scenario for skirmish or taking the embassy wargames, they are not very few?
Which kind of troops they could face?

Amicalement
Armand

They'll probably be facing Jihadis, if anything bad happens in the region, due to all of the religious warfare going on in, and around Africa.

Four of our troops were wounded, when the three Ospreys they flew in today, to evacuate some Americans, came under fire.

Apparently, it isn't clear who fired on them, since supposedly we thought we had worked out an agreement to pull our people out, with both sides, who had been informed of the sortie. It seems not everyone got the word, or if they did, not everyone agreed with the plan.

Supposedly, the Ospreys diverted to another airfield, just over the border, in another country.

I suspect they'll try to get the civilians to the aircraft, via a land route, instead of trying to fly in again.

In a NEO situation (Non-combatant Evacuation Order) like this, I'd suspect that there was some tretgery involved by one (or more) factions. (In the Sudan, there are about 30+)

In a NEO situation, there are 3 basic assumption options: The Local Governing body is friendly, unfriendly, or unknown. When training, it'a always best to go on the assumption that the Local Governing body's attitutde to your presence should be "unknown". The belief here is that you can exercise differing options in case the SIPTREP changes.

In this case, there clearly is no single Local Governing faction with control over the capital.

The US has the capability to get it's people out if the political will is there to mandate it. It is here a wargamer would like to assume that will is there. All the resources are there to make it happen, but what is your plan? How do you extract your non-combantants and combatants out with the least risk/losses? Remember, we are out of the regeme change business. (Heck in DRC, there seems to be a distinct lack of one!)

You see, everyone has planned and practiced NEO under the assumption that there remains a controlling local government that actually held control in some places in the country. Seems that this "assumption" is now a huge variable and just bumped the risk factor off the charts for the existing ways things are done. Again, a chance to game how you would apply "force" in the situation.

The possibilities are only limited by the models you have available to game with. Just remember, there has to be a political aspect to this. If you get out your people amongst great carnage and loss in human life, you loose. Conversely, if you can get your people out with little or no casualties, you win big!

A real world example of using a current event and creating a gaming challenge using real world factors in your game where the histporical record has yet to be determined!

We may be out of the "regime change" business (although I doubt that), but are apparently supporting the current one, since they were warned yesterday not to attempt a coup against their current leader.

Glad to hear according to CNN most if not all Americans (as well as others) have been evac'd. Good to see some of the troopers from the 1ID there. However, I'm sure they'd not want to spend the Holidays there if given the chance. But such is the life of a soldier. Now I understand those were were V-22s that took fire. Were they USMC ? Were those Marines that were WIA or ?

Mako. They already experienced a coup attempt and the suspected leader of the coup is still around and seems to be active. The current regieme leader says he is willing to sit down and talk with his ex-VP (who is expoused to have been that coups' leader.) Long standing tribal rivalries and inequitable oil wealth sharing seems to be feeding this conflict….up to now. They seem ripe for stronger and better organized factions (like Al Kaida) to step in and take advantage. It's pretty ugly there right now. All in my opinion, that is.

Very good comments boys.
Thanks.

Amicalement
Armand

Surely not exactly a ripe breeding ground for AQ given the population is overwhelmingly Animist and Christian?

Christians seem to draw Jihadis in the region, like moths to a flame.

Hmmm, even if that were the case, they'd still require local support, which is non-existent. What is now South Sudan fought a decades-long war against an Islamic regime; the appearance of AQ on the scene would in all likelihood end the current tribal conflict immediately in order to deal with a much-hated common enemy.

Independence was always going to be an uphill struggle for South Sudan. The leaders of the SPLA will no doubt find that the consequences of repeating the violent splits of the early 90s are rather different now they're at the helm of a sovereign state. I wish that country well, it really has suffered more than enough.

Things are getting worst there.

"KHARTOUM, Sudan — He sat among tens of thousands of terrified people crammed into the United Nations compound, most of them women and children, taking notes about their desperate rush to safety. Like them, he had come seeking protection.

They came to my house," the man, Biel Boutros Biel, a human rights activist, said of the South Sudanese security forces. "I knew they were coming after me."

After President Salva Kiir announced that his government had headed off a coup attempt by his former vice president last week, South Sudan was tossed into uncertainty and upheaval. Hundreds are believed to have been killed in the capital, Juba, with thousands more fleeing into the bush to escape the violence…

Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Four Hurt As Gunfire Hits US Military Plane Sent To Evacuate Americans From South Sudan.

"Four U.S. military personnel were injured early Saturday when a plane being sent to help evacuate Americans from strife-torn South Sudan was struck by gunfire.

The Osprey CV-22 was damaged while approaching the city of Bor. The mission was aborted and the aircraft diverted to Entebbe, Uganda, a military official told NBC News. The injured servicemen were later taken to a hospital in Nairobi, Kenya, where they were in stable condition Saturday. None of their wounds was considered life-threatening.

The shooting came two days after three U.N. peacekeepers were killed in South Sudan. The Indian soldiers are among 500 people killed and 800 wounded in South Sudan since Sunday night, when gunbattles erupted between army factions loyal to the country's president and his former vice president, who are members of different tribes. The conflict has deepened divisions in the two-year-old nation…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

2 points (actually 3) Those Ospreys seem to be far too fragile a craft it seems, where was the firepower clean sweep backup (chopper gunships?), this sounds like a SNAFU setup, without any prior planning. 2. Let them get on with it, sandbag the oil installations and keep the "spice" flowing tribal/cultural/religious war is in their blood nobody is going to stop it, its Africa after all. Aaand 3. What's with the 'HAT' these guys in charge in Africa??? LOL I wouldn't let that idiot open a door for me at the "Regency Hotel" never mind run a country, can't the oil corporations find a better puppet?

Both V-22s and choppers tend to be fragile … I don't think they thought they were likely to take fire. That goes more to intel than anything else … Quoting/paraphasing from my post on the Blackhawk Down thread – Something we know in all combat ops … Intel is never perfect … I was a Rifle PL and BN Air Ops Officer in the 101, '80-'83. There are a number of tactics and techniques we used to to try to make Air Assault missions "safer". Including what we call SEADS, Suppression of Enemy Air Defense Systems, along the flight route. With FA, CAS, Naval Gunfire, etc. … Having Recon Birds and Gunships leading the Assault chopper flight(s). And along side the flights. Using false LZ(s). Turning the intended LZ(s) and surrounding areas into flatten churned up field(s) with CAS, etc. … To suppress (KILL) any enemy that might be in the area. Of course the #1 lesson we learned is as opposed to attempting a forced entry op. Something that was common place in WWII, Korea and even Vietnam with Paras, Marines, etc. … Land where the enemy isn't … But sometimes you have no choice, like the UBL raid and even in the Mog. Surprise and deception are always a good idea and is preferred in most cases. I'd have a rolling FA and/or Mortar barrage advancing in front of my route. And a couple of Pink or Red Tms flying flank security along the route. As Bn Air Ops Officer in the 101 I know how to coordinate this type of op. It's something like Recon by Fire. Firing along your intended air routes. Cease firing of all assets at a CFL/RFL. Save for SA at ID'd enemy targets from Pink & Red Tms and even the lift ships. Keep the Pink/Reds Tms on station circling the pick-up points. And keep the FA/Mortars on stand-by as well. If the choppers start taking fire, call in the FA/Mortars. I'd extract in a similar manner, once all friendlies are onboard. Basically level everything along the way out. To avoid any hasty ambushes, etc. … But as always things can go bad. Raid/Evac missions by their very nature can be risky. You just have to ensure your prior planning and rehearsals are thorough. They drill that into you at RANGER school. However, again, I don't think any one thought all this firepower would be needed(or was available) for the Bor Evac …

On a side note, CV22s means USAF Ospreys (Marines fly the MV22 version).

One of the things about an Osprey is that it is much faster than any current helicopter. Makes it a bit hard to escort with helos, though I think the USMC's AH-1Z Venoms are only 75 knots slower. The US Army's AH64s are nearly 100 knots slower (the old AH56 was the same speed, ~200 knots). So we really need something that can keep up with an Osprey (top speed of 300+ knots) and that can hover.

Zargon, aircraft are not generally designed to stop small arms ammunition from penetrating the skin. The only ones that have been are the Ilyushin Shturmoviks (Il2 and Il10), the Su25, and the A10.

Despite being hugely overpowered compared to WW2 equivalents, modern aircraft are still weight-limited. IF they are armored, they're usually armored around critical systems only in an 'all-or-nothing' scheme. Either there's full armor protection or there is NO armor protection at all.

Thanks for tha Lion, I didn't know the USAF had already got some V-22s … Just on CNN, 150 USMCs are going into the Sudan. To provide Embassy security and assist in the Evac as needed. And the 4 WIAs on the CV-22s were SEALs … one was in pretty bad shape …

A-10s would make a perfect escort craft.

They can't hover, but are very maneuverable, and can lay down a world of hurt on anyone stupid enough on the ground to start firing.

My guess is they didn't send in an armed escort, since they didn't want to appear to exacerbate the situation on the ground.

For some reason, we keep assuming that the people on the ground will play nice, and then get surprised when they don't, repeatedly.

Time to stop worrying about offending others, and to provide the protection that is obviously needed, right from the start, just in case.

South Sudan Demonstrates The V-22 Osprey Still Faces Operational Challenges

"So…the CV-22 Osprey chalks up more combat experience in South Sudan, with three CV-22 Osprey aircraft apparently taking ground fire on descent into what was probably the Osprey's first noncombatant evacuation operation (NEO). Four of the approximately 46 aboard were reportedly hurt, and the Ospreys aborted their mission and diverted to an alternative landing zone. (A good summary report is here)

Good thing is that the aircraft took hits and kept flying. I don't know where the craft were hit, but the fact that these complex engineering showpieces flew for 550 miles after being hit is, at least, another positive demonstration that the airframe is a bit more tough and resilient than critics expected.

But…the mission was left undone, leaving us to again wonder if we are still seeing the services struggle to slot this specialized airframe into roles and missions for which it is–as yet–unsuited…"
Full article here
link

Interesting to read about the effectiveness of the CV-22 Osprey aircraft in hostile environments.

Amicalement
Armand

South Sudan army set to move on rebel-held town of Bor

"Mr Kiir told parliament the army was "ready to move", adding that the counter-attack had been delayed to allow US citizens to be airlifted out.

Bor, in the restive state of Jonglei, fell to rebels on Wednesday.

A week of ethnic violence has raised fears of civil war. UN humanitarian staff have described bloody scenes, including summary executions…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Both V-22s and choppers tend to be fragile …

" The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously Tuesday to nearly double the number of peace­keepers in the world's newest nation to more than 14,000 and urged swift action to end a violent political and ethnic conflict that threatens to become a full-blown civil war.

Amid reports of mass graves, extrajudicial killings and rapes, tens of thousands of civilians have sought refuge in U.N. base camps that in some cases were described as under siege from ethnically motivated fighters. Hundreds of people, if not several thousand, have been killed, according to witnesses and U.N. officials.

There appeared to be no sign of a rapprochement between the central players in the crisis: President Salva Kiir, an ethnic Dinka, and former vice president Riek Machar, who is a Nuer, as the ethnic killings threaten to overwhelm U.N., U.S. and African efforts to end the violence…"

Full article here.
link

Amicalement
Armand

More UN troops sent, mass graves, tribal hatred, refugees, etc., etc. … sounds a lot like biz as usual in that region … TIA … You know, growing up in the '60s, seems like in many cases things have not really changed much in region. The players may have changed some but the tragety still occurs throughout. Sometimes I feel the West might just let the locals work it out among themselves in Africa, the ME and SWA … and just keep tabs on Terrorists activities with satellites, drones, etc. … If something looks like trouble – drones, Cruise Missiles, CAS, etc. … and then they can continues the slaughter again on their own … sadly …

"UN peacekeeping mission UNMISS in South Sudan to be reinforced by more troops.
The security situation in South Sudan remains "fluid", the United Nations peacekeeping mission in the country today said, confirming that it is sending reinforcements to areas affected by the current fighting between pro- and anti-Government troops, particularly Bor, Malakal, Bentiu and Juba.


"This is critical to enable the Mission to deliver on its mandate to protect civilians," UNMISS said. It specified that thousands of additional police, military, logistics support and selected civilian staff are being relocated to the affected areas, per the Security Council's authorization.

Three weeks of violence in the world's newest country have claimed thousands of lives and forced about 200,000 people from their homes, many seeking refuge inside UN bases…"
Full article here.
link

Amicalement
Armand

U.S. Mission in South Sudan Shows Limits of Military

"The Pentagon's recent efforts to help evacuate Americans from strife-torn South Sudan and to bolster security at the United States Embassy there underscore the military's ability to more quickly send crisis response forces to emergencies in Africa.
But they also reveal the limitations of American military power there and highlight the remaining gaps in intelligence and communications, according to commanders and independent analysts. One evacuation mission was aborted on Dec. 21 when three Osprey aircraft ran into heavy small-arms fire and four members of a Navy SEAL team were wounded.
In response to the fatal attack on the American diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya, in 2012, the Pentagon created a 150-member rapid response force in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, and sent 500 Marines to a base in Spain, positioning troops, aircraft and military equipment closer to potential conflicts…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

There is no magic wand for everything …

Enemies become friends
The possibility that the war might cut off South Sudan's oil seems to have swayed North Sudan to take sides. The North is in economic crisis, with an inflation rate of more 40 percent and regular protests over government austerity measures.

The regime of Pres. Omar Al Bashir barely held on to power after it had to raise gasoline prices a few months ago. The economic shock induced by lost revenues from the oil trade with the South would put Al Bashir's power in serious jeopardy.

Last weekend, Al Bashir took the unusual step of flying into Juba to meet his South Sudanese counterpart Kiir and declare the complete support of the North for the government side in South Sudan's civil war. Al Bashir foreswore any support for the rebels and the two presidents even went as far as to propose a joint security force to protect the oil fields of the South…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Fleeing South Sudan Violence, Scores Drown in Nile.

"It happened during a panic that has unfolded with frightening regularity in recent weeks. Fighters were advancing. Crowds of civilians fled to the river to escape the violence, rushing into barges to cross the White Nile. Amid the frenzy, officials said Tuesday, more than 200 people were killed when the ferry carrying them to safety went down.
After a month of fighting in South Sudan, nearly half a million people have fled their homes and thousands have been killed. Many have sought safety by crowding onto boats, with witnesses describing passengers' being crushed or falling overboard and drowning in the rush to escape. But the recent accident, which officials said took place over the weekend, is the worst reported in the conflict.
All of the people killed, possibly as many as 300, were civilians, including women and children abandoning the town of Malakal, said Col. Philip Aguer, a spokesman for the South Sudanese military. "The boat was overloaded," he said.
.."

Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand