"Saudi Arabia Preparing to Act Against Iran?" Topic

This is an interesting statement, and development, though I'm not sure I believe it, especially them acting on their own:

link

I can see them perhaps acting in conjunction with the Israelis, but don't think they'd want to go it alone against the Iranians.

Interesting. If Iran wanted to take over Saudi Arabia, would it have to strike around the top of the gulf, or do they have significant amphibious capability?

I doubt they have the amphibious capability to really do much.

Sure, they can load up a lot of fanatics in small boats, or perhaps on oil tankers. I don't think they have much in the way of a true amphibious capability, and even if they did, any large, dedicated landing craft wouldn't survive for long.

Of course, supertankers are notoriously hard to sink, supposedly, so, if they filled the decks of one, or a few of those with men, and then just ran them aground…….

I suspect their most likely avenue of attack would be overland, with perhaps special agents, and forces attacking S.A. from within, or from Yemen, simultaneously.

Not sure how loyal the military is to the current Saudi leadership, especially when the fur starts to fly.

It would be a long, protracted war with a mechanized military fighting guerillas if it did happen. A very messy affair that would likely have the U.S. and Russia playing the proxy war game.

Persians vs. Arabs. Shia vs Sunni. This would make the Iran-Iraq War look like a pleasant Sunday picnic. Israel would stay out of it and let them have a go at each other. Finally, I'm sure the US wouldn't look too kindly on any interruption of oil to us OR our western allies. Just my two cents.

Aside from the Saudi armed forces, the Arab bedouin tribes(regardless of how they felt about the House of Sa'ud)would have a field day in the desert with Iranian invaders and their supply lines. *shudder*

Who do you think financed the Pakistani nukes, and has a few dozen sitting in bunkers on call?
I am sure the barcode on them shows who really owns them.

To a Kissinger/Machiavelli/Metternich fan, this is the best possible scenario. No US or Israeli fingerprints on it. Unless you look under the sheets, of course.

Well, given all the energy resources we now have, and those of the Canadians that we could have access to, I suspect any interruption from the Middle East could be replaced fairly quickly, if there was the will to do so.

First, I doubt Saudi Arabia would be able to intervene significantly on the ground. They only have 3 Armored Brigades, 5 Mech Infantry Brigades, 3 Motorized Brigades, an Airborne Brigade, and 5 independent Artillery Battalions. The Saudi National Guard has 3 Mechanized Brigades and 5 Motorized Brigades (mech in name only; most of their equipment are armored cars and wheeled APCs). That's the equivalent of around 1 Armored Division, 2 understrength Mech Divisions, a Motorized division and the aformentioned airborne brigade. The SANG would have the equivalent of 1 Mech Division and 2 understrenght Motorized Divisions. With 6 divisions which are allegedly understrength, I doubt they could say engage in regime change without other support.

Saudi Army: link
Saudi Arabian National Guard: link

Compare that to Iran which may have up to 15 divisions as well as a number of independent brigades/battalions.

That being said, if Iran wanted to invade Saudi Arabia, they'd likely have to transit either Kuwait (which would not cooperate IMHO) or Iraq (which probably wouldn't, but more likely would compared to Kuwait). Any sort of military confrontation IMHO would be either at sea, or with bombing campaigns.

Damon.

I don't know.

The current Iraqi leadership seems to be pretty chummy with the Iranians right now.

Of course, the Sunnis in Iraq would be more than a little put out by any attempts to let them do so.

I imagine the Saudis win the air war, especially with their F-15s, aerial refueling jets, and AWACS.

Not sure who has the better navy.

I agree though, that the Saudis would have to be daft to think they could take on Iran, on the ground, using conventional weapons, without a lot of support from others.

Perhaps the Iranians will unleash their new "monkey rocket" wonder weapons?

Sabre rattling for local consumption. Nothing unusual for this part of the world.

"Of course, supertankers are notoriously hard to sink, supposedly, so, if they filled the decks of one, or a few of those with men, and then just ran them aground……"

They are, but attacking just one could derail the world economy. Remember the attack on the Limberg? The financial impact of that one boat bomb that damaged but did not sink a tanker was greater than 9/11 due to what it did to oil prices and international shipping costs.

Saudi Arabia "has no choice but to become more assertive in international affairs: more determined than ever to stand up for the genuine stability our region so desperately needs."

Umm, good! We'll be rooting for ya,

Now. where is the popcorn and banana chair.

Well, given all the energy resources we now have, and those of the Canadians that we could have access to, I suspect any interruption from the Middle East could be replaced fairly quickly, if there was the will to do so.

Oil is a commodity, so any impact in the Middle East still has an effect on oil prices. Unless the US is somehow both willing and able to start producing enough oil to cover for the oil not coming out of the Middle East.

Umm, good! We'll be rooting for ya,

Now. where is the popcorn and banana chair.

Don't forget the appropriate beverages!

Some other interesting facts, Afghan Leader Karzi is friendly with the Persian Gov't. And Saudi Arabia footed 1/2 the bill for arming the Muj against the USSR … Plus the US gets more oil from Canada and Mexico each, then the Middle East percentage-wise. However, the situation could affect the US's allies … And a Saudi-Iranian War would draw every islamist fanatic loony and a few other types in the region like flies on . Just like in Syria … Of course, the Saudi's would have to buy a fleet of Landing Craft(which they probably could !) and/or get Iraq's permission to get to the Persians for a land war to happen. @ John OFM … I've learned [in my youth] sometimes to turn off the lights "before you look under the sheets" …

The evil part of me says I'd gladly pay the $10 USD/gallon for gasoline just to watch. I couldn't think of a better match in hell.

Arguably, the last round was in the '80's with the Iraqis fighting for the Saudis by proxy, and we all know how ugly that was.

pjm

Yea, a war in the region would be much tougher on Europe and Japan than on the USA, energy-wise.

"And a Saudi-Iranian War would draw every islamist fanatic loony and a few other types in the region like flies on Bleeped text."- Legion4

We can only hope that is our end game.

The evil part of me says I'd gladly pay the $10.00 USD USD/gallon for gasoline just to watch.

Some of us already do…. :)

I agree Dragon … I agree … @ stu … I don't feel so bad now only paying $3.00 USD/gal …

Even if the US could survive on oil from its own continent and other suppliers, the loss of much of the Middle Eastern oil supply would still see a significant rise in oil prices and prices in general.

From a purely military perspective, it would be an interesting war; the Saudi military is very well equipped with the best equipment that their money can buy but is relatively small and of poor quality and poorly motivated, while the Iranian military is poorly equipped, much larger and of variable quality. I suspect that everything would depend on how much both sides' "friends" became involved. The supply lines would be very interesting for the attackers to deal with as they would be long and wide open to interdiction; a few special forces could make it very difficult for either side to keep the war going at any decent technological level.

If it could be arranged that the war was fought in the vast empty areas of Saudi Arabia and that "every islamist fanatic loony and a few other types" could indeed be drawn in, that would be a decent outcome as long as the oil issue was manageable.

Jurgen

@Stu: those higher fuel taxes tend to pay for things like public transportation that actually works.

most of the US doesn't have functional public transit systems, and is unwilling to accept the higher fuel taxes to fund adequate numbers of buses and stops or trains/subways.

It's probably the thing I miss most from Japan. Crush hour sucked, but I could go to almost anywhere in the country by train.

" … as long as the oil issue was manageable.", that truly is the "bottomline" … The Western Capitalists Democracies, really don't care about your religion, ethinicity, tribe, sect, eye color, if you like liver, etc., etc. … "It's all about the Benjamins."

Legion 4,

"It's all about the Benjamins." I am baffled!

Jurgen

Thank you, kyotebluer; strangely, German currency between 1945 and the introduction of the Euro avoided pictures of famous German leaders;). Now, we just have mundane Euros and are all trying to avoid hanging on to ones whose serial numbers start with a Y.

Jurgen

Sorry Jurgen, yes, it's US street slang for $$$ … Another one is "Dead Presidents" … and the old '60s term – "Bread" … and before that – "dough" … All "colorful" street venacular for

Actually, a significant portion of government revenue in the UK goes on the welfare state. In fact some argue this cradle to grave system, including universal healthcare, is a way of restraining a countries ability and desire for power projection.

As for transport, I drive and am pretty sure, my road tax does not go on the roads!!

Doesn't Saudi Arabia use mercenaries.. or rather Private Military Contractors? Or maybe I'm thinking of the UAE? Anyway, I'm pretty sure that your average Saudi citizen is way too wealthy to actual don fatigues and go to war.

Mkultra99,

Saudi combat forces are nearly entirely Saudi nationals but most of the technical services are led by Westerners. There is a very good article on the Saudi military and some of its issues here:

link

Jurgen

Milites,

Road tax has not existed in the UK since 1937:

link

However, you are correct that Vehicle Excise Duty is not directly spent on roads.

Jurgen

Ah Jurgen, I'm a bloody foreigner so I just repeat what the locals call it. Bit silly, because most Brits have very little idea about their own country, I blame the teachers myself! See, I even talk like them now!

Milites,

Which version of foreigner are you? I do agree about most of the locals not actually knowing much about their own country; it is something that I find quite odd.

Jurgen

Lived here since 74, I hail from Scandewegia (deliberately vague as I like the anonymity of the web) but moved around a lot as a youngster including three years in a Communist country. Which, to a five year old, was one exciting experience after another, less so for the majority of residents though!

I do wonder, in moments fuelled by middle-aged dark anxiety, if the lack of knowledge is inevitable or engineered to some degree. Then again, most of my students knowledge about any country is pretty woeful.

I suppose a Saudi-Iranian war would give jihadists another option for travel destinations and inspiration to the apocolypse crowd. I'd probably buy that 4 cylinder, diesel I've been thinking about buying.

When I lived in Europe, I paid $8 USD-10/gallon on occasion for various reasons, and didn't like it very much. I suppose it isn't such a big deal if you're used to it. My old LandCruiser gets 12-15 miles per gallon and has a 25 gallon tank, so filling it was an emotional experience.

pjm

"nd are all trying to avoid hanging on to ones whose serial numbers start with a Y."

Now it's my turn to miss a reference; I don't understand that at all.

If the Iranians tried to repeat Saddam's blitzkrieg of the First Gulf War, they would quickly move out of the wetlands around Basrah, through Kuwait and on into open desert, which would be ideal territory for Saudi equipment (outnumbered but technically superior).

The Gulf would be the really active theater, for naval and air forces. Both sides' strategic rocket forces would get a workout.

tuscaloosa,

Greek issued Euro notes have a serial number beginning with Y; some people are concerned that the notes will become invalid if Greece pulls out of the Eurozone so they try to avoid having those notes.

While the Saudis are well equipped, I believe that there are huge questions about the military's competence to fight a real war; one or two people that I have met who have worked with them are pretty much convinced that they would collapse quite quickly without foreign military assistance.

Jurgen

Look at their pretty abysmal record in the first Gulf War, USMC aircraft providing CAS, during the Khafji battle, had to fly at higher than normal orbiting altitudes due to the number of rounds going high in the fighting. Observers said it was difficult to see who fought in the most incompetent manner and this was after decades of Western military support.

The SAF at least showed a modicum of competency, though F-15;s v's F-1's is not really that much of a workout. The Saudi will most likely buy a nuke and test it shortly after the Iranians. Shame the regions pacifier, Saddam, is not around, he'd have stabilised the situation quickly!!

I see, thank you.

My old Army buddy came back last year from training the Saudi NG. He was a CE in the US Army back in the day. So he was OIC of a US private contracting team from Vinnel Corp. (IIRC) training the SANG CEs … And NO … they are not Mercs … just trainers …

Those crazy Saudis !!! What a Hoot !!!