I think people vastly overestimate the influence of Moltke junior in German Decision making, and vastly underestimate how trans-formative of the internal political balance of power in Vienna the assassination was. Clarke does a good job of putting these things forward. All my academic life I had the German guilt hammered into me, but in light of these two books (Clark and Pointing's "13 days"), this is a argument that is simply indefensible.
Moltke was simply one player in the German side, and until the very end of the crisis was out of the loop. Bentham Hollweg was running the German show, and he seems at least from the Pointing and Clark narratives to had kept a firm hand until the Russian mobilization. Yes he gave the Austrians a blank check early on, but he never believed that the war would diffuse. Moltke only becomes important after Russia has started a de-facto full mobilization in which case he gains leverage for the war. But until then there is no clear dominant war-party in Berlin.
In Austria on the other hand the assassination of Franz-Ferdinand takes out the peace party in the Austrian government and loosens the hands of that criminal Conrad. The assassination was decisive not as a pretext but for making the war-party dominant in one more great power capital.
But to simply point the finger at the two Central Powers and their lucky war-parties simply ignores the pretty well entrenched war parties running France and Russia by 1914. Let us see
In France Poincare, a man openly looking forward to a war, and one who gives a huge blank check to Russia comfortably heads a war-party that has gained the upper hand in French politics. Sure you have token peace party members like Viviani around, but as the Clark and Pointing narratives point out they are browbeaten by Poincare. So in 1914 French policy making is dominated by a war-party.
In Russia after Stolypin's assassination you have an acceding war-party around those other criminals Sukhomlinov and Krivoshein that in 1914 pulls out a coup and leads to the dismissal of Kokovtsov, the last serious peace-party leader in Russia.
And in the UK you have Grey agitating for a de-facto blank check to the Entente, who in 1914 is lucky enough to have the Irish Home Rule crisis give him a Tory alliance to overcome the peace-party in the cabinet.
So by 1914 of the 5 powers in question 2 have dominant war-parties (Russia and France), 2 see unanticipated events that give the war-parties the upper hand (Austria-Hungary and the UK), and 1 is in flux (Germany). Really speaking why would anybody expect to avoid war when 4 of 5 players are spoiling for a fight.
What the Clark book nailed to me is the ultimately wars do not happen because of systems and so on. They happen because people who want war come to dominate the policy of states. Systems and other conditions may make it more likely that war-parties gain power, but sometimes it is blind stupid evil luck (as in the case of the assassination of Franz Ferdinand).
And that while collective quilt may make sense in WWII, it makes no sense in WWI. There were specific people who pushed to war, pushed for war despite being pretty sure it would be terrible. They were criminals.
For me
Poincare and part of the French diplomatic corp, Kirvoshein, Suknomlinov, Conard von Hotzendorf, Apis (Dragutin), Wilson, Moltke are Criminals who intentionally sought a world war. They should be treated like that by history and for posterity.
Sazonov, Nicholas II,Berchtold, Francis-Joseph were accessories to crime in that while they did not intend it once it was offered they went along knowing the consequences.
Hollweg, Wilhem II, and the Russian general staff beyond Suknomilov are at the least guilty of criminal incompetence. Especially the Germans
Pasic and Franz-Ferdinand for me are innocent. Pasic could not do much in the country he was in, and though he was a Big Serbia advocate and knew that this could only happen in the context of a European war, he was not willing to be the one to trigger that war (unlike that murderer Apis). At least from the Clark and the Pointing narratives, Franz Ferdinand does seem the key for a permanent shift in Austria towards peace-party dominance.
And the important thing in Clark is his reference to the Stolypin affair.In a Europe in which both Stolypin and Franz Ferdinand are alive and in power, WWI becomes less likely, since both cared more for internal reform than the Balkans. Two bullets killed 1800000 people and a whole civilization. Not one.
Or that is my quite polemical view.