"Wargaming predictions where I was wrong" Topic

I was off the mark regarding 3D printing. I thought that everything produced would be in a frothy useless resin.
It seems to me that all that is needed is fine tuning the engineering and polymer chemistry. I am still doubtful about the "set the controls to 100 Old Guard Grenadiers, fill the hopper and come back in the morning", though. Maybe I am wrong, and a $200 USD machine CAN do all that!

I thought that plastics for obscure things like AWI British would be too expensive to tool for, with a tiny rate of return. I was still under the "$100,000 per mold" paradigm, and did not think the Hobby™ was large enough.
I would be curious to know what the cost of a single mold for the above is. If the answer is "none of your business, OFM!", I am OK with that.
It may still be expensive, but I suspect that marketing and planning and modern production techniques can greatly offset that. The sculptors' and company reputation does not hurt either.
With GW, it helps to have it all in shop, and if your mold cutting machine is not working 24/7, it is not earning its cost back.
CAD/CAM also helps.

Where were YOU wrong in your predictions? Honestly!

I subscribe to the approach of that great modern philosopher Paul Gascoigne, who once said:

"I never make predictions, and I never will."

All the best,

John.

If have heard from a good authority that a steel sprue mold costs around £10,000.00 GBP to tool. So your average box of a figure sprue and half command sprue takes £15,000.00 GBP to produce.

Jaz
6sided.net

Every now and then I predict how my dice will roll. That's about it. And my record as prognosticator there ain't too swift.

Plus I'm out of the loop. 3D printers you say? Gotta turn my hearing aid up…

Too many times have I said "I just can't see myself collecting figures for {some period ABC} in {XYZ scale}.", and years later I start buying stuff for that period and scale!

Next week's Lottery numbers are: 3, 16, 29, 33, 48, and 52.

You're welcome!

I predicted that plastics would work for Romans, WWII and Napoleonics, but I didn't consider that a plastic set could also draw somebody into a particular period as Warlord's ECW sets did.

Currently 3D printer quality is not at a satisfactory level, nor is the production speed. I hope this will change in the next few years.

John the OFM is never wrong.
Humble? Yes.
Entertaining? Yes.

Humble?

I was wrong in predicting that the NWS was wrong,it really did snow today.:)

I had predicted that Militia Pete would never develop a droll wit. Boy do I have egg on my face.

On a more positive note, I did realize Gonzaga was seeded much too high.

Ten years ago, I predicted that by now we'd all be using hand-held devices that contained all game rules and functions, scanned barcodes on our bases, and rolled dice for us, so that we'd have true Fog of War and super-fast combat resolution.

Then I realized: "Ah, right… that would require somebody making apps for that, which would need to be a big enough market to recoup his investment and effort. For some reason, nobody stepped up to create that for the historical miniatures hobby, which might have something to do with us being five dozen grumpy near-sighted old farts who are still complaining about color pictures in rulebooks, much less new technology."

I resemble that accusation!

I am a bit of a "now" person as far as the hobby is concerned…

I thought our hobby was dieing out. It can be very good to be wrong, at times.

There has been some dramatic changes in the costs behind injection molded plastic molds. There are a lot of really obscure kits coming out in the 1/35 scale world that I never thought I'd see. I think part of this is due to a dramatic drop in mold cutting technology, or associated technologies. Also outsourcing mold cutting to China doesn't hurt (for some, at least…)

Damon.

Everyone wants to see the big number of what a mold cost but the truth is unless you have a design then you'll never know. Making the mold isn't the issue. It's the engineer that designs it. So Chinese engineers work cheap but they are the not best. Good engineering cost $$$. For some reason, I forgot that tidbit and started a business catering to a niche market…

The problem with injection molding is that no one is designing machines for people like us. You get a mold made and you want to minimize your parts costs. You also have to make 5000 or more units to make back your investment and you'll probably not break even anyway.

I have seen an injection machine that might fit the bill eventually. Last time I checked his latest iteration wasn't automated. So you have to push the button for the injection and then unload the mold by hand and repeat. He told me he had plans to do another version for light small unit runs. The molds are aluminum. LOT cheaper to machine that. They also don't last as long and can't be run as hard. You put an aluminum mold in a 10 ton machine and it will just smash your shiny mold into scrap. Now a 10 ton machine can produce thousands of parts an hour. We need something that can do hundreds per hour.

I've also seen an injection mold resin. I have no clue how long this kind of mold will last. I'd like to test it some day. It's basically a really high temp resin/aluminum mix that will take the pressure of light injection molding. It's used for short run prototype stuff. So now we have the potential to cast directly from a sculpted master into an injection mold master. You'd need to make your own channels for the injected plastic but we do that with spin cast metal molds already. It's not going to save us all tons in the long run but it has potential for similar mold life/cost as metal or resin but the material costs are a lot cheaper.

I'd love to figure out the process but I just don't have the time or $5 USDk or so that I'd need to finish the R&D for it.

Not so much a prediction, but I hadn't thought I'd be getting into FIW – and now I am – with Foundry figs no less.

I have been quoted £15,000.00 GBP-£20,000 for a Renedra sized mold at a local company.

The Science behind laying out a mold has been improved by flow simulation software.

A smaller mold is not cheaper (usually)

Getting your two part mold to have a good parting line is not easy or cheap. Having a sculptor that can be undercut free and still make a fine figure (multipart or not) is one of the challenges.

I have a hobby injector – personally casting in metal is still easier for the start up.. and for low demand.

Chinese engineers are perfectly fine…if you hire the right ones! I just picked up Trumpeter's new 1/35 BMP-1 kit, and the surface detail is extremely good, much better than anything in plastic we've gotten so far (including IMHO Perry minis). There is also Dragon still active out of Hong Kong. Sure some of them are dreadful, but there are good ones too.

Damon.

Too many times have I said "I just can't see myself collecting figures for {some period ABC} in {XYZ scale}.", and years later I start buying stuff for that period and scale!

I hit the Daily Double with that.
No way would I ever collect 15mm or Russians in WW2.
So, I have 3 large triple drawer boxes of Flames of War Commie horde, and am working on my 4th.

I imagined that miniatures would be replaced by video games or some sort of 3D helmet viewed virtual reality kind of thing. Glad they haven't (yet?)

I doubt they will. While on an elementary level, both are"just games". there is an entirely different mindset to the approaches.
Video games require that everything be done for you, while miniatures gaming requires that you paint solid objects.
theoretically, if a video game of the AWI were ever to be produced (And I do NOT call that thing an AWI game…), one could change the uniform of the 4th Foot to the 5th with a mere click, it's a lot more work with miniatures, and far more rewarding to have both.

I'd actually bet that the reverse is happening now. Video games have peaked and will still be a larger industry but I think we are seeing a much higher attrition rate as teenagers grow into adults and get tired of video games. They now have groups of friends that they can get together with an enjoy a boardgame or two.

Lets face it, boardgames are the gateway drug for miniature games. Pre-painted games like X-wing are helping with that. I'd also like to see more stores holding classes for beginner painting.

More gaming than wargaming, but I was at the Origins wereh Magic the Gathering was unveiled. I watched for a while and then walked away thinking, too complicated, will never catch on.

I am with Timbo – I also thought that minis would be replaced by video, but for the reasons John has laid out I am glad they have not

I also did not think that "niche" periods would be as popular as they are

"I was off the mark regarding 3D printing. I thought that everything produced would be in a frothy useless resin."

Our attached Dental School are using 3D printing to produce replacement teeth and bone sections for maxillofacial surgery.

Hopefully made out of something stronger than resin:)

"boardgames are the gateway drug for miniature games"

Indeed. A friend of mine plays boardgames. About 10 years ago I made up DBA elements from red and blue cardboard, labeling each "spears", "blades", etc. I also made cardboard terrain elements. Once he'd played DBA a number of times with cardboard counters, I showed him the same game with toy soldiers. He now owns DBA 100 years war French and English armies, Seven Years War French, Napoleonic Russians, 1870 Prussians, late Romans and is acquiring a Viking army as we speak.

I didn't think I'd ever play Vietnam or moderns because it was "too close" to present day. I now enjoy Vietnam games and have played several modern scenarios. I relaxed my views when I learned that many of the people playing the modern games are recent vets.

I fill you in on my worst prediction after the commercial interlude.

My worst prediction?

I will never rebase these figures again…..

It won't matter if I have one more pint…