| Tango01 | 30 Nov 2012 10:09 p.m. PST |
Interesting article here. link Hope you enjoy!. Amicalement
Armand |
| Schogun | 01 Dec 2012 5:56 a.m. PST |
I have a friend who likes games where 6's kill. But like rare dice in Saga, 6's seem impossible to roll when you need them. So I calculated the odds: If 6's kill (or hit or whatever), what are my odds of rolling a 6 with X number of d6s? Or the bigger question -- how many of these damn d6s do I have to roll to get ONE darn hit? 1d6 = 17%
2d6 = 31%
3d6 = 42%
4d6 = 52%
5d6 = 60%
6d6 = 67%
7d6 = 72%
8d6 = 77%
9d6 = 81%
10d6 = 84%
11d6 = 87%
12d6 = 89%
13d6 = 91%
14d6 = 92%
15d6 = 94% I'll stop there. The sad fact is, no matter how many d6s you roll, you're *never* guaranteed to roll even one 6. Unless…only a 6 will cause your troops to break and run away. Then rolling a 6 is a given. But if nothing else, you can remember that you need to roll at least 4 dice just to have a 50% chance, then double that (8 dice) to get to 75%. |
| Tango01 | 01 Dec 2012 10:38 a.m. PST |
Very interesting work my friend Schogun!. Amicalement
Armand |
| MajorB | 01 Dec 2012 11:02 a.m. PST |
Very interesting work my friend Schogun! Just simple mathematics. |
| Cincinnatus | 01 Dec 2012 3:41 p.m. PST |
Simple math but I bet surprising to a lot of people when laid out like that. |
| Patrice | 03 Dec 2012 10:54 a.m. PST |
I confess I still am uneasy with those statistics …although I suppose I learnt it a very long time ago… Could you please remember to us how to calculate this? |
| Cincinnatus | 04 Dec 2012 6:41 p.m. PST |
I should never try to post about math but here goes: There's a 1 in 6 chance to roll a 6. So that comes out to roughly 17% change of rolling a 6 with a single die. Most people get here pretty easily but this is where the train starts to go off the tracks. Since you really want to know the chance of the event happening AT LEAST ONCE, you start with the chance that it won't happen at all and work from that. The chance that you won't roll a 6 with a single roll is roughly 83%. So to get the answer to any specific number of dice, you just multiply the .83 times itself that many times. Then subtract that from 1. |
| Patrice | 15 Dec 2012 3:26 a.m. PST |
So to get the answer to any specific number of dice, you just multiply the .83 times itself that many times. Then subtract that from 1 Thank you! I don't know why I convinced myself that it was much more difficult than this! (probably I had an old trauma from such things as "integrals", "derivatives", etc… and now I believe that they are needed to calculate anything)… For simple dice statistics calculation I use a simple 6x6 table which works for 2D6. I can still manage 3D6 …but it gets difficult for more dice :) |
| Bad Squiddo Games | 21 Jul 2014 3:11 a.m. PST |
I was wondering if how deep the symbols are recessed makes much difference? Or I'm just unlucky in the amount of Norman shields I roll! |
| Last Hussar | 26 Jul 2014 7:41 p.m. PST |
If you want the formula for a spreadsheet it is 1-((f^d)/(s^d)) f = the number of failures there are on a dice (in this case 5, because you only want one number of the 6)
s = number of sides on the dice
d = total number of dice This will give a decimal of between 0 (no chance) and 1 (100%)
Thus .25 is 25% chance or rolling 1 or more what you want So if the dice have symbols A A B X Y Z and you want a B or Z, f is 4 (four failures on the die) |
takes another stab at building a more perfect flight stand.
