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"So how was Historicon and give a grade from A to F?" Topic


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RJPodolsky28 Jul 2012 10:39 a.m. PST

My Grade = F-

Reasons:
1.) The merge lane on I-95S to VA-3 West. You must be a "redneck" if you have to look up with the word "Yield" means in a dictionary. You should also know the traffic laws. Even if I cut you off and you hit my car, you are at fault…lol!
2.) Page 6 of the Convention Book. "The official launch of Bolt Action: World War II Wargames Rules, including the chance to pick up the special-edition launch figure." Osprey told me that I would have to had bought the Rule Set directly from Warlords to get the special-edition launch figure.
2.) Lee Sowers, On Military Matters, and Combat Action Command. Show up for the frakkin' 'Con next time! Okay?
3.) The chairs in the main gaming hall were horrendous.
4.) If you're too fat to be able to see if you're peeing in the urinal or peeing on the floor, you have a lot of mental problems that need proper treatment by trained professionals.

I have been going to Historicon since they were held at the Penn Harris Inn in Harrisburg and, to be honest, other than Reason #1 which is almost as bad as making a left hand turn on Route 30 at the 'Host, it was not that bad of a convention other than it was not that well-attended, definitely had less dealers (Belle and Blade packed up Saturday night) than normal, and definitely had way more "No Show" Gamemasters.

Hopefully, the HMGS BoD will come up with a viable plan to deal with "No Show" Gamemasters (maybe no free admission for a few years?) and to explain why no one got the special-edition Bolt Action launch figure from Osprey.

Double G Supporting Member of TMP28 Jul 2012 12:11 p.m. PST

Thanks Johh, looking forward to it already…….

demiurgex28 Jul 2012 12:48 p.m. PST

Well, totaling up the results to this point, of the people who gave grade scores (didn't bother with + or -, just the grade). I gave the lower if the person give a range (for example, if the person gave a A-/B+, I gave a B).

A: 33
B: 23
C: 7
D: 1 (there's 2 Ds, but Early Persian voted twice)
F: 2

Wasn't sure how to grade Bob w/o his Dog. If he can give an overall I'll update. :)

Pretty positive response overall I'd say.

Edit: Oh, really only 1 F. One of the two Fs didn't go to the convention.

Scorpio28 Jul 2012 1:27 p.m. PST

Wait, someone is actually counting? I replied on the first page, but didn't give a letter.

Let's call it a B. The bathroom situation, those chairs, and the noise levels count for a whole grade, but I would gladly do it over again.

demiurgex28 Jul 2012 1:36 p.m. PST

B:24

:D

Just thought that the grades mattered, as opposed to the bickering about the grades which probably is at least as many posts. :)

Double G Supporting Member of TMP28 Jul 2012 2:33 p.m. PST

My grade for the entire weekend is an A-, only negative for me was no AC in the dealer hall on Wednesday most of the day, that was brutal, but everything else for me was aces……………

civildisobedience28 Jul 2012 8:57 p.m. PST

"I have been going to Historicon since they were held at the Penn Harris Inn in Harrisburg and, to be honest, other than Reason #1 which is almost as bad as making a left hand turn on Route 30 at the 'Host, it was not that bad of a convention other than it was not that well-attended, definitely had less dealers (Belle and Blade packed up Saturday night) than normal, and definitely had way more "No Show" Gamemasters."

I agree completely with this paragraph. It wasn't that bad of a con and the facility wasn't that bad either. But you just can't ignore bleeding GMs, dealers, attendees, and scheduled games (plus lots of cancels).

I just wish all the people dropping easy As around would at least address some of that.

demiurgex29 Jul 2012 8:02 a.m. PST

@Civil – I think the criteria is different. Yours is compared to the ideal con. Compared to the best theoretical con people could ask for, my grade would certainly be lower. However, most people's grade seems to depend on their perception of whether they had a good experience.

As it stands, those giving the Con a 'good' (A or B) compared to 'bad' (D or F) is running 24-1.

I eagerly await your next attempt to convince everyone that their personal opinion is incorrect. :)

nazrat29 Jul 2012 8:12 a.m. PST

LOL!

civildisobedience29 Jul 2012 8:15 a.m. PST

Demi,

I said nothing about anyone's personal opinion. I just said that most (not all) of the A and B reviews were light on details.

There were likely fewer attendees. There were fewer dealers. There were fewer scheduled games. It appears that there were more than the normal number of cancellations.

This has nothing to do with anyone's opinion.

If you want to compare numbers, you need to go beyond the posts on one message board. How about 900 people who went to Lancaster and not to Fredericksburg? That's 900-24.

James Arnold29 Jul 2012 8:16 a.m. PST

Because I live in Virginia, state pirde made me hope the con would prove successful. Pre-con talk was that the yankees would not come but that folks from the south would make up for them. Although I am a charter member of HMGS, I did not attend because the new board apparently decided to economize. Whether this is a wise business decision on their part I know not. Strictly from my perspctive, I offered my services early, proposed to give talks and lead a bus tour of nearby battlefields with all profits going to battlefield preservation. I thought it was a neat idea. But, as a freelance historian I could not afford to do it unless they paid for the room. One of the TMP posings mentioned he missed the "historians". Bless him!

Reading the comments, I am astonished that the infrastructure problems, particularly the lack of bathrooms, was not forseen. Stuff like that is not rocket science.

Since that afternoon in Wally's basement, HMGS has witnessed a tremendous surge in popularity, hard work by many devoted people, amazing business bungles ranging from stupidity to graft. From what I can judge from the TMPers, 2012 at F-burg seems encouraging.

James Arnold
Napoleon Books

demiurgex29 Jul 2012 9:41 a.m. PST

Hey James –

One thing I'm interested in. Is there a lot of cross pollination between the history enthusiasts and the minis enthusiasts? In other words, would it be of value to advertise in areas that attract history fans?

One thing I was surprised at was the relatively little advertising I saw in the area for Historicon. I sent a recommendation that we check with local military history museums if they would allow us to put up flyers for Historicon a month or two out. There's SO many in this area. You could even target them. Push civil war history at Manassas, Fredericksburg, Petersburg, Appamatox Court House, Richmond, and Shenandoah battlefields. Push a revolutionary war theme at Yorktown, Monticello, and Mount Vernon. You could look at WWII naval combat at Norfolk and the Nauticus/Battleship Wisconsin exhibit. You could do almost all of them at the Marine Museum. Push the Flames of War Tournament at the Danville Tank Museum.

You'd just need a couple of volunteers and a check with the organization if that was OK.

Anyway, just a thought. I've already signed up the new location at the UpcomingCons (for gaming conventions) web site.

James Arnold30 Jul 2012 5:50 a.m. PST

Dear Demiurgex,

I am unsure how much "cross pollination" exists, but your ideas sound timely. Why not contact the HMGS people and inquire. Hoepfully they will be receptive.

James

Double G Supporting Member of TMP30 Jul 2012 6:00 a.m. PST

I attended a toy soldier show in Annandale in June and handed out about 150 postcards regarding the show, close to 100 of my customers came to Historicon, many of whom are not wargamers.

Just about every one of them were impressed with the size of the dealer hall, the products sold there, the flea market aspect and also the eye candy, ie, the games that were presented while they were there.

Several of them now seem interested in the whole wargaming side of the hobby, asking me questions in that regard and I've done my best to answer them, so maybe some new wargamers will now be a part of the hobby………….

firstvarty197930 Jul 2012 7:28 a.m. PST

The speakers are a "nice to have" feature that many people like, but the way HMGS has been bleeding money over the past few years, I think it's an understandable decision. Perhaps they'll have a better idea of what is affordable once this year's totals are figured out and we'll see more speakers back next year?

kallman30 Jul 2012 7:49 a.m. PST

"Hopefully, the HMGS BoD will come up with a viable plan to deal with "No Show" Gamemasters (maybe no free admission for a few years?)"

Ummm…no RJP. First off as a Gamemaster I already spend a great deal of money, time, and effort to run games at conventions to begin with. And if I do say so myself I run some pretty nice looking games and ones that are fun to boot. So the free admission is really not too much to ask if you run games at the conventions. I am all for the requirement that in order to get the free admission deal you have to be a member, which I am. Now I was one of the GMs that had to cancel. I contacted the folks in charge of the PEL as soon as I knew that I would not be able to bring my game to the con, and promptly paid my admission online. I have run lots of games at Historicon and other HMGS venues so you would penalize me this one time for not running my two games???? That would be a great way to make sure I did not run any games in the future and also make me think twice about even attending. Just because you show up at a convention does not guarantee you a game. And by the way there were plenty of games to get into if you wanted. Based upon your profile you could have gotten into any number of WW II games being run by the Fireball Forward gang. And why is it the convention's fault that Osprey did not give out the Bolt Action figure? I ask the same question concerning the traffic, as how can the convention have any control over that factor?

civildisobedience30 Jul 2012 8:58 a.m. PST

I'm definitely against penalizing GMs. I was as frustrated as anyone when games were cancelled, but that isn't the way to handle it.

firstvarty197930 Jul 2012 1:24 p.m. PST

The answer isn't to penalize, but to make sure that they have as many instant communication routes as possible (phone, email, text, etc.) so that if there is a last-minute change to the GM's plans, the event organizers (and the people who signed up to play in the game) will know about it as soon as they arrive on site, preferably even before that through updates on the HMGS site. Maybe there could be a way to have a "Adds/Losses" link after the PEL so that new games and dropped games would be highlighted?

The GM's responsibility is to inform the organizers ASAP if he can't run his game.

Tricorne197130 Jul 2012 4:00 p.m. PST

The main reason I have been going to Historicon (since Harrisburg) is the speakers and to socialize with friends. I have been encouraged in the last few years that more authors are showing up, and we are expanding from a gaming convention to a respectable military history group. To backslide on the author/speaker side certainly cuts out a significant section of HMGS members.
I game once a week at home and can buy pretty much anything overnight on the internet. What I cannot do is see friends, develop new relationships and discuss new books with the authors.
This comment does not argue that Historicon should not be primarily a game oriented event, nor am I against dealers, as I am sure I am in the top 20% of the customer purchase category!

Pat Condray01 Aug 2012 8:49 p.m. PST

Frankly, I was for it based on a lack of options. Now people are telling me about wonderful options. But the facts are hard to pin down.

Actually, Northern Virginia traffic is bad, and real. Coming down from Lancaster I would often hit the Beltway leading to I-95 late Sunday afternoon, and I-95 was a parking lot. My solution was to take the Mt. Vernon Parkway down by Fort Belvoir, then take Rt. 1 south to Fredericksburg then over to I-95. Most traffic lights are avoided by taking the Parkway past George's place.

The facility was not bad. Concrete floors didn't bother me because I habitually wear tennis shoes on non-cermemonial occassions.

Trying to sell stuff, take lots of pictures, and hang out with friends, as well as very occasionally game limits my time and inclination to attend lectures. But giving speakers perks is not the cause of HMGS "Inc." fiscal losses. I see the cuts in this area as part of the cyclic pattern of financial management, "Drunken Sailor" followed at intervals by "Chicken Little."

I approve of neither phase.

Attendance was down sharply. HCON 2008 was a record surpassing even the previous record in 1998.

Advertising was reduced by over 50%, which is probably why there was a sharp drop in attendance. No rational person would economize on advertising when moving to a new venue for the first time.

But there was an adequate number of people to keep things buzzing and buy some stuff. And the program offered 92% as many games as last year. There were perhaps more cancellations than usual but there were some last minute additons.

On site food was unspectacular. It took us more than a decade to train the HOST. And VFCC took the trouble to visit the HOST during HISTORICON for background information. But Wegmans was a short walk away, and they had pretty good food at reasonable prices.

Although there is somewhat more space than the HOST, the problems with the men's rooms are as noted. One mens room was off limits to non-vendors, which was a mistake.

It has been mentioned that the FEC is much more expensive than the HOST. However, it is not formally linked to the nearby hotels. Last year Bob Giglio got massive commissions from the VFCC, perhaps as an apology for their abortive cancellation 90 days out. But Fredericksburg persuaded the nearby hotels to provide substantial commissions, which, in effect, were the equivalent of reduced rates for room nights in a combined facility.

In short, attendance was light, but adequate. I don't think HMGS Inc. will lose any money on this.

My main question would be could the men's rooms and parking (which was barely adequate) hold up if, for example, attendance had been even as high as last year, let alone a record.

Pat Condray

thomalley01 Aug 2012 9:49 p.m. PST

I didn't stay on site. I was on and on site for three days and never notice a single problem parking. At noon on Saturday I went to lunch and Hobby Lobby, came back and had the option of several place right in front of the door. There was plenty of parking in front. The far side was empty and no one use another lot, that was closer than one that used to be behind the hotel next to the Host.
I think you could double attendance and still have plenty of parking.

civildisobedience01 Aug 2012 10:45 p.m. PST

The parking was fine. But, of course, with attendance likely down considerably who knows if it would be fine with near-record attendance (not that this is likely).

Thanks, Pat for the confirmation that 2008 was the record attendance.

Pat Condray02 Aug 2012 10:40 a.m. PST

Thomally

Maybe I am simply prone to finding parking problems where they don't exist. I also did not stay on site. But after cruising the parking lots for a bit I often wound up on the other side of the access road in what appeared to be an overflow lot.

Had the attendance been significantly higher there would have been no room in that lot.

The 2008 attendance was 3,600 or so. This year it was only about 60% of that. I'm not at all sure where Thomally would put the extra cars.

I get the impression that the facility was amazed at how many people came, while those of us familiar with HISTORICON's recent history were perhaps equally amazed at how few came.

As it turned out, the facility was almost adequate for the numbers on hand. Given the savings on advertising and perks for lecturers, and perhaps austere staffing I expect positive cash flow. But to me that smacks of gradually cancellign HISTORICON.

Alpha Geek02 Aug 2012 10:54 a.m. PST

Attendance: 2700

Total events: 550

Budget: In the black

Frankly I find the talk of previous year attendance figures to be disingenuous. Both NASCAR and the NFL complain of reduced (and still falling) attendance numbers so how and why is HC immune to the same factors?

civildisobedience02 Aug 2012 11:24 a.m. PST

Alpha,

How can you casually disregard the fact that the location has changed dramatically as if it is silly to even think that had something to do with the lower attendance? You offer up the NFL and Nascar as comparisons? If I go find two leisure pursuits with rising attendance does that cancel out your two?

I realize that this may not be as compelling a comparison as the NFL, but here are the Origins figures for the same 2009-2012 period:

2009 – 10,030
2010 – 10,669
2011 – 11,502
2012 – 11,332

Up 13% while we are down 25%. By your logic, why is Origins "immune" to the same factors plaguing the NFL?

I'm not trying to give you a hard time, but this is what makes me crazy about this debate. If someone wants to say, "I like the location better and I don't care if we've lost almost a thousand gamers," then fine. No problem, everyone is entitled to an opinion. But this constant need to just absolutely ignore facts or create the most convoluted logic to explain things away is just maddening.

Hcon 2009 took place during the same bad economy as we have now, at a time when virtually every measurable economic statistic was worse than it is now. During the same period that we lost 25% of our attendees, Origins has actually grown. These are facts. They have nothing to do with opinions on bathrooms or whether guys who don't want to drive eight hours are babies. They are FACTS.

Scorpio02 Aug 2012 1:23 p.m. PST

On site food was unspectacular.

The chicken fingers, fries, and soft pretzel I had were fine. Ditto the perfectly acceptable if not exceptional coffee. Better than I expected at any major hall like that. And prices were decent too, better than most exhibitor hallf.

But man, any time you can sit down with a turkey leg and a glass of wine and it's not a Renaissance Festival is good times.

BTCTerrainman Supporting Member of TMP02 Aug 2012 1:57 p.m. PST

Civil <<Up 13% while we are down 25%. By your logic, why is Origins "immune" to the same factors plaguing the NFL?>>

For starters, Orgins only runs 1 show a year vs 3 HMGS shows that are essentially all the same. Folks simply have the option to attend one of the other shows. If you want to attend Orgins, then you only have the one date to do and cannot wait to the Fall or Winter. I think this is a noncomparison.

civildisobedience02 Aug 2012 2:27 p.m. PST

"For starters, Orgins only runs 1 show a year vs 3 HMGS shows that are essentially all the same. Folks simply have the option to attend one of the other shows. If you want to attend Orgins, then you only have the one date to do and cannot wait to the Fall or Winter. I think this is a noncomparison."

That data is consistent through my example. There were three shows in 2009 as well. that has not changed, only the location of Historicon.

A comparison was made between the NFL and Historicon and my comparison to other gaming shows is invalid?!?

JeremyR02 Aug 2012 4:27 p.m. PST

I thought I would put together my own statistical analysis comparing Origins and Historicon attendance. I wanted to use numbers from 2005 through 2012 as 2005 was Origins best year but the earliest numbers I could find for Historicon were for 2007. Any help with earlier numbers would be appreciated.

The attendance numbers for Historicon:
2007 – 3,272
2008 – 3,667 (+11%)
2009 – 3,565 (-3%)
2010 – 2,980 (-16%)
2011 – 2,958 (-1%)
2012 – 2,700 (-9% from previous year and -26% from 2008 high)

The attendance numbers for Origins:
2005 – 15,000+
2006 – 13,861 (-8%)
2007 – 13,107 (-5%)
2008 – 14,190 (+8%)
2009 – 10,030 (-29%)
2010 – 10,669 (+6%)
2011 – 11,502 (+7%)
2012 – 11,332 (-1% from previous year and -24% from 2005 high)

As I'm sure many of you know statistical analysis can show completely different numbers when the time scale is changed. If one takes only the numbers from 2009 to 2012 it appears that Historicon is dying while Origins is growing. If you change the time scale to include some of the previous years it is plain to see that both of these conventions are in decline. Why was 2009 so devastating for Origins while Historicon was at a near high? Why was 2010 so devastating for Historicon while Origins was growing again?

Alpha Geek02 Aug 2012 7:09 p.m. PST

@civildisobedience:

" If someone wants to say, "I like the location better and I don't care if we've lost almost a thousand gamers," then fine. No problem, everyone is entitled to an opinion. "

Thank you. Consider it said by everyone who has already made their reservations for NEXT year in F'burg.

The comparisons with Origins are also disingenuous. Given the never-ending heated debate about the "historicalness" of some of the miniatures games that are run at HC, do you really want to begin encouraging company-sponsored events, tons of board games, card games and freakin' costumes????

civildisobedience02 Aug 2012 8:56 p.m. PST

Jeremy,

I am not sure what your point is. Looking at the posted numbers, Historicon was growing until the recession hit, then dropped off moderately, then fell off a cliff when it was moved.

Origins was also growing or steady from 2006 until the recession hit, and dropped off rather more abruptly from the economic impact. The reason 2009 was so devastating is that it is the first year impacted by the recession, and the economy was at its worst trough then. If I had to guess why Origins got hit harder than Hcon(and I don't pretend to know) I'd say it is a more expensive show that is less feasible for its attendees to scale back to a day trip. But certainly, the Hcon at the Host held up remarkably well despite the recession that hit Origins (and every other business) so hard. This just reinforces the argument for the Host.

Since the recession hit, Origins has been rebounding and Historicon has been bleeding attendance.

civildisobedience02 Aug 2012 8:58 p.m. PST

Origins is a disingenuous comparison and the NFL and Nascar isn't? Are you kidding?

I think I just had an out of body experience.

firstvarty197902 Aug 2012 9:39 p.m. PST

CD,

A Hypothetical. Given the economic situation, if Historicon had never left the Host, what do you think the attendance numbers would have looked like this year?

foxfoxfox Supporting Member of TMP02 Aug 2012 10:36 p.m. PST

Honestly- to say that Origins is rebounding and H'con has been devistated is a little unfair when you compare that both shows are within 2% points of how much they have both lost from the highest attendance years

H'con off 26% and Origins 24%

If you consider that H'con has moved twice and had the Baltimore miss fire it is amazing that the numbers are that close. Gamers do not like change-

One thing is certian- many of use- myself included have been hurt(badly) by this economy and the 4.00 a gallon gas- which I guess is back again this weekend- oh joy….

I also must comment that some of the personal things being said toward the board (that is trying to make the best decision on behalf of our organization) are very unfair. They are not productive and to be frank- they are rude. If you honestly think you can do better- belly up- get elected- see how much fun it really is.

JeremyR03 Aug 2012 2:01 a.m. PST

So a one year attendance drop of 3% is a "moderate drop" while two years of attendance drops totaling nearly 13% and a one year growth of 8% is "steady or growing?"

My point is while it is true that during the years 2009-2012 Origins has grown while Historicon has declined it is also true that both conventions are down about 25% from highs within the last eight years. After reading the other long thread about Historicon in the Conventions and Wargames Shows Message Board it seems Civildisobedience is arguing that the move away from the Host is the major reason for the decline of Historicon. This argument is supported with an attendance comparison between Historicon and Origins that conveniently leaves out the near record attendance numbers of Origins 2008.

If one includes 2008 in this comparison, which would be a more apt comparison to judge how the recession has affected both of these conventions, you see that both have had declines of 20% or more despite the fact that Origins has not made a move over those five years. My guess is that the move from the Host to the VFCC to the FEC has almost certainly negatively affected attendance levels for Historicon. It is also apparent that both conventions have been severely affected by the recession. Would holding Historicon at the Host in 2013 magically bring the numbers back to record levels or would they still be low due to a bad economy?

I found some information that allowed me to come up with approximate numbers for 2005 and 2006. Here are my revised numbers.

The attendance numbers for Historicon:
2005 – 2,929+/-
2006 – 3,156+/- (+7%)
2007 – 3,254 (+3%)
2008 – 3,667 (+11%)
2009 – 3,565 (-3%)
2010 – 2,980 (-16%)
2011 – 2,958 (-1%)
2012 – 2,700 (-9% from previous year, -26% from 2008 record high, -8% from 2005)

The attendance numbers for Origins:
2005 – 15,000+
2006 – 13,861 (-8%)
2007 – 13,107 (-5%)
2008 – 14,190 (+8%)
2009 – 10,030 (-29%)
2010 – 10,669 (+6%)
2011 – 11,502 (+7%)
2012 – 11,332 (-1% from previous year, -20% from 2008, -24% from 2005 record high)

So you could look at the numbers between 2005 and 2012 this way. Origins is down 24% without moving the convention while Historicon, having moved twice, is only down 8% in the same time period. Another way to look at those numbers is average attendance at locations: 3,314 at the Host; 2,969 at VFCC; 2,700 at FEC. This tells us that average attendance was down 10% at the VFCC and 19% at the FEC. What if the convention moves once more, perhaps back to the Host, and attendance drops another 10%?

ECWCaptain03 Aug 2012 6:21 a.m. PST

Guys,

Just so everyone has the correct numbers to bandy about, here are the attendance numbers for HISTORICON since 2005, plus number of vendor companies that attended.

Year Total All Attendance
2005 2908
2006 3180
2007 3272 (up 3% from 2006)
2008 3667 (up 12% from 2007)
2009 3565 (down less than 3% from 2008)
2010 2980 (down slightly more than 16% from 2009)
2011 2958 (down less than 1% in attendance from 2010)

Year # Vendor Companies
2005 86
2006 92
2007 94
2008 91
2009 86
2010 77
2011 64
2012 64

Regards,
Bob Giglio

civildisobedience03 Aug 2012 7:06 a.m. PST

Thanks, Bob! Real numbers are awesome.

civildisobedience03 Aug 2012 7:15 a.m. PST

Jeremy & Fox,

I'm not sure I'm following you. I agree that a head to head comparison between Historicon and Origins is not fair because Historicon was moved. That was precisely my point. If Origins is growing now, rebounding slowly from the 2009 trough of the recession, I suspect Historicon would be doing the same if it had been left in Lancaster. In the context of Origins and Gencon and other shows, I can't think of any other stimulus that applies to Historicon only other than the moves and (at VFCC) the changed weekend. It is the move and the new location that is causing this, because despite the fact that many people like FCC, a huge number of people don't like the location and won't go.

Per Bob's numbers, dealers are also down sharply from 2009.

The convention directors and staff have, as always, worked hard to put on a good show. With regard to the BOD, I stand by what I said. Have they even posted the minutes of the meetings in the last year+? These gusy think they're the politburo.

civildisobedience03 Aug 2012 7:20 a.m. PST

Firstvarty,

If the event hadn't moved I suspect it would be at similar levels to 2009. Origins lost more from the recession, probably because it is not possible to go there as cheaply as Historicon (i.e. it is pretty easy for someone to do a day trip to Hcon if money is tight rather than stay all weekend).

Because Hcon lost less, I would expect any rebound to have been smaller as well, so that is why I guess it would be around the same as 2009.

This is just my guess, but based on the people I know who didn't go and would have gone to Lancaster, it seems reasonable. But who knows. I try to stick to facts. I blame the move for the drop because it is the only identifiable variable between 2009 and the present.

thomalley03 Aug 2012 8:58 a.m. PST

And left out of this is the growing hobby of playing Angry Birds on your IPad. I would think a lot of what would have been war gamers 20 years ago now are video gamers. Not Angry Birds, but POV games and even computer war games. We were always a small hobby and there's even more competition now. Even TV and movies are hurting.

JeremyR03 Aug 2012 2:11 p.m. PST

Bob, thanks for posting the actual numbers for 2005-2007. I was somewhat confused about the number for 2007 as the 2007 and 2008 After Action Reports have conflicting numbers. The 2008 report says 2007 attendance was 3,272 while the 2007 report says attendance was 3,254. I used the 3,254 number to extrapolate attendance for 2005 and 2006.

Civildisobedience, I'm not sure I understand your point now. You say that a head to head comparison between Historicon and Origins is not fair because Historicon has moved while Origins has not but you were the one to make this comparison in the first place. If your initial point with this comparison was to say that it was an unfair comparison I certainly missed that the first time around.

You say that you try to stick to facts but you seem to operate on assumption even more. Your assumption seems to be that since Origins has had two years of growth and one year of decline that it is rebounding from the recession while Historicon, after three straight years of decline, has not been affected by the recession and a slow recovery but only by the moves away from the Host. If you only look at the numbers between 2009 and 2012 it certainly might seem that way. If you look at longer-term trends the numbers show that both conventions have been in decline.

I will state this point one more time. I think that the move away from the Host has probably hurt the attendance levels for Historicon but it is also clear that the recession and bad economy over the last three or four years have negatively affected both Origins and Historicon. To say that the move away from the Host is "the only identifiable variable between 2009 and the present" seems rather myopic to me.

Maybe the decisions made years ago to move away from the Host were bad ideas but those bad decisions are now in the past. What steps can be taken to improve Historicon in the future? Some suggest that a move back to the Host would be best for the convention. If that is what people want in the future it is fine with me but as I understand it the facility is not available for a few years to come. Maybe leaving the convention at Fredericksburg for the next few years and trying to grow the convention there would be the best option for now. When the Host is available again in 2015 then maybe the convention can move back.

foxfoxfox Supporting Member of TMP03 Aug 2012 2:45 p.m. PST

Civil,

I am stuggling to have you say Origins is growing now when they actually had a slight reduction in attendees this year. Stable- maybe and just an FYI they gave us all a pretty significant price increase for 2013 so don't be surprised if you don't see tumbleweeds in the vendor hall next year.

Perhaps a better comparison might be examining another show that has very similar attendees and has had a major move during the same time period- Little Wars. This years sales for me were 1/3 what they were in 2008(truth) and I can tell you the attendance is a shadow of what it was during its high point.

This is not a knock to the people that run Little Wars-things like the economy and being forced to move are completely out of their hands- They work hard every year and the show will recover.

BOB- glad to see you are following some of this- question which you might not be able to answer. Of the 64 dealers still attending do we rent about the same amount of total space and or dollars rented? For instance I could not expand any at the Host(could only get 2 tables) but I have almost doubled my booth at both the last 2 locations and have more than doubled what I send HMGS in booth fees.

I realize that it might be a difficult number to find(or maybe not). Can anyone tell if it is easy to see what the vendor hall revenue was for the same time period? I think that number is extremely important and I have no idea what it might look like.

civildisobedience03 Aug 2012 3:22 p.m. PST

"Civildisobedience, I'm not sure I understand your point now. You say that a head to head comparison between Historicon and Origins is not fair because Historicon has moved while Origins has not but you were the one to make this comparison in the first place. If your initial point with this comparison was to say that it was an unfair comparison I certainly missed that the first time around."


I posted the comparison because someone posted a comparison between the NFL/Nascar and Historicon along the lines of, "if NFL attendance is down then how could Hcon not be. So in response I posted what I believe to be a more reasonable comparison.

My point was to show a similar event where the only major variable between 2009 and today was that Hcon moved away from its normal location and Origins did not. Period. That is all I meant, and I think the comparison is spot on for that purpose.

civildisobedience03 Aug 2012 3:28 p.m. PST

"When the Host is available again in 2015 then maybe the convention can move back."

The problem is it won't be available for 2015 in the summer of 2014 when we are having this discussion again. If they admitted moving was a mistake and reserved Lancaster for 2015 they could move back. But instead someone will be on here in a couple years saying, "the Host isn't available until 2018"

JeremyR03 Aug 2012 3:39 p.m. PST

And I contend that your comparison conveniently leaves out the fact that Origins experienced a nearly 30% drop in attendance between 2008 and 2009. In fact this drop in attendance of 4,160 people represents more people than have ever attended a Historicon. If my contention is unwarranted please explain.

Herr Raisin03 Aug 2012 6:20 p.m. PST

Some of us think that moving from the Hole to a better venue wasn't a mistake. If it moved back there, I wouldn't bother going.

civildisobedience03 Aug 2012 11:20 p.m. PST

Jeremy,

I'm not leaving anything out. The 2008-2009 comparison for any event will reflect most of the impact of the recession. Historicon lost some attendance as well, but not nearly as much. Please note the convention did not move for 2009.

If you read my earlier post, I offered some speculations on why Origins lost more people in the recession than Hcon. Of course, these are just guesses, as none of us can know for sure. But Origins is more expensive than Hcon (and Hcon at the Host was cheaper, especially for dealers). Hcon drew the majority of its attendance from 1-4 hours away (not all, but the largest portion) so I imagine it was relatively easy for a gamer who needed to cut expenses to go for a day trip or a shorter stay. Origins, conversely, draws most of its attendance from greater distances, making it harder to convert a normal visit into an economical one.

Nevertheless, I fail to see how this affects the comparison during our relevant Hcon move period. The point is that some have raised the economy rather than the location for the drop in attendance. My point was simply that 2009 was that the economy was worse in 2009, which was the last year at the Host. This strongly implies that, while attendance would likely be higher anywhere if the economy was better, it is highly unlikely that this is the cause of drops from 2009 to 2012.

Also, I offered the Origins comparison as an alternative to a fairly bizarre commentary proposing the NFL and Nascar as comparisons.

civildisobedience03 Aug 2012 11:21 p.m. PST

Herr,

I respect that opinion.

There are also almost a thousand attendees who have the opposite view, and who expressed it by staying home this year. I wasn't one of them, as I did go. But I do think the convention is lessened because of the absence of so many good gamers and GMs.

holien04 Aug 2012 2:35 a.m. PST

CD

"There are also almost a thousand attendees who have the opposite view…"

Rubbish….

It is your view that is the case but not the truth from anything I have seen on these threads.

Supposition not fact!!

It is really good to see there are those that will engage you in debate and challenge your view.

BTW I am a member I signed up and paid when I came this year so I can express my view.

holien04 Aug 2012 2:48 a.m. PST

BTW – I did not rate the VFCC hotel / location but still enjoyed the game.

I rate highly the FCC venue and choice of hotels / location and still enjoyed the games. It is way way better than the VFCC location / venue.

If from what I have heard the Host is worst than the VFCC (Host described as a dump by some) then if I were given a vote I would go to FCC as long as it covers it costs.

What is wrong with an event that covers it costs and as has been mentioned time and time again on this thread has better facilities / hotels etc….

Your perceived view that a thousand gamers have been lost is IMO wrong and nothing I have seen on this thread or the other has persuaded me you have it correct. Plenty of other reasons for the decline have been offered and are all plausible.

This is from someone who is really quite independent of the arguments in years gone by but likes a bl**dy good gaming holiday…

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