"Historicon Review" Topic

Just FYI, I do plan to attend the con next year. Pointing out costs and attendance is not the same as trying to work actively against the convention or the organization. One thing I have learned in life is that people vote with their feet. Let's see how the vote goes and work from there.

I've been a member since the late 80s.

Doug and Double G, your perspectives are greatly appreciated. I always thought it would be cool to have an all dealer convention and skip the games (other than demo games run by dealers). Perhaps few share that idea, but to me, if it got enough dealers to attend, that would be a con well worth going to. Opinions may vary. :-)

Honestly, this is what is frustrating to me about this debate, much as it was during the BCC fiasco. I have no quarrel with someone's opinion. But I just don't understand why people seem to ignore hard facts.

Historicon 2009
3,565
link

Historicon 2008
3,667
link

Historicon 2007
3,254
link

I know that record attendance was considerably higher, but I cannot find the documentation online, so I have not posted it.

This little blurb might provide some insight… gotten off the Historicon 2007 AAR

While total attendance was 3254 – up about 3% over 2006 (up about 10% over 2005)

History Gamer the UK effectively runs such things (Dealer Convention) and the larger game shows here are more about selling and looking at games with some limited opportunity to play.

What I love about the HCon show is it is more about playing games and the sheer variety and options is outstanding.

I wish we had a show like HCon and have been musing if we could get something like it in the UK. Not sure we could due to several factors, but I won't hijack this thread….

BTW the thread is still making me smile, parts of it is like being back at school, I guess some people are hitting their second child hood in a very public manner….

;)

HG,

Hcon 2008 was 3667 according to the after action report. I realize HMGS counts everybody, including the guy who cleans the bathroom (no joke intended…well, maybe a little one), but that will be true of any published numbers, so we need to compare apples with apples.

Also, I am almost sure peak attendance was over 4,000, but I can't find any figures for late-90s shows, which is when I think it was.

CD:

I am working from memory, so I could be wrong about Pat's number.

Having done an analysis of attendance some years ago and posted it in the HMGS yahoo files, let's just say the numbers are shaky, and I don't think anyone made any effort to correct them till Bob Giglio and his con crews started scrubbing out the double badges issued to dealers, GMs, staff, etc. I would suggest the numbers during his cons are probably the most reliable.

holien:

Funny how we all want what we don't have. I am not advocating dumping our present cons, but the idea of a really big dealer one is appealing to me as I am an impluse buyer and like to see what I am buying first, which is not the case for many.

Kim:

I would urge you and every other member to look at the BOD minutes for 2011 and 2012 (minutes are posted on the open HMGS site), and to look at the financials, especially the treasurer's excellent report which alarmingly (my word) notes a significant decline in convention revenue – which is why this discussion is indeed relevant. Please read over the BOD minutes and look at the financials, then come back and tell us what you think.

"It was also the first year, rather then year 3-4, perspectives on what is affordable change a LOT after that long of an economic downturn. Only those directly affected by a layoff the first year would probably not have gone, by 3-4 years many more who might still be working would tighten up their spending."

Here's the problem. You can create an argument to "prove" any point. But there is no factual basis to support the idea that the economy would have a higher impact in 2012 than in 2009. In 2009, the economy was still losing jobs every month, and had been for well over a year. Job growth since January 2010 has been positive, even if anemically so, and contracts sharply with conditions prevailing when Hcon 2009 was held. In fact, every economic statistic was worse in 2009 than it is now.

This is not a defense of the economy. I think it is appalling that the economy is in the state it is in. But that does not make it worse now than it was then.

Ridicule anyone who is negative on the location if you want but, unless the numbers hinted at are significantly beaten when actual figures come out, a lot fewer people wanted to go to FCC than wanted to go to the Host. Whether it was cost or distance or being upset at HMGS (or whatever else), fewer people chose to go.

Thanks for the comments historygamer, I appreciate it.

As has been pointed out, Salute is the type of show you're referring to, it's a one day event, not sure if it would work for an entire weekend without the games, or even two days, God bless those dealers, that is one monumental set up for a one day show, been there, done that.

The beauty of the three HMGSE conventions is you have the best of both worlds; a dealer hall that is open four days, plus games that run for four days as well, so the show attracts IMO three types of people, those who come just to shop and not game, those who come to game and not shop and a combination of the two who do a little of both.

I don't think the conventions would work without the dealers or without the games, both are needed to make the conventions as successful as they are.

I've been a vendor at the HMGSE conventions for 15 years, starting with one table, building my footprint up to where it is now, 6 tables/2 booths, I've never had a "bad" convention, been lucky to make a profit at each and every one of them, having the added bonus of shopping at the largest "hobby shop" in the United States, being able to look in on some great looking games, plus not to mention having the opportunithy to meet a great number of terrific people that I would not have been able to meet otherwise.

The social aspect of the conventions is what I enjoy the most truth be told……

Facts? OK.

The height of the con was not over 4000.

From the 2008 AAR:
This year's "Historical Miniature Gaming's Biggest Summer Vacation" at the Lancaster Host Resort & Conference Center in Lancaster, Pennsylvania was the largest attended ever for HISTORICON in it's first twenty-four years – a huge success!

Total attendance this year was 3,667 – that's up 12% over the attendance for 2007 (which was 3,272).
historicon.org/HIST2008/aar.asp

So unless the upper boundary is wrong on the official site itself, we can safely say that Civil's remembrance doesn't jibe with reality.

Dynaman's point about the long term impact of a weak economy vs one year trends is well made.

The Fed just released a major data dump last month. It only goes to 2010, as the current numbers haven't been analyzed.

But between 2007 and 2010, median income fell from 49.8K to 45.6K – a significant drop of 6.7% or so.

But net worth, wealth, dropped nearly 40%! Yes, its mostly tied to their houses. But that means more people are underwater, owing more in debt than assets, than ever before.

It doesn't take a genius to know that over time that eats in to your desire to spend money on hobbies, and that the economic recovery in the last 18 months has been anemic at best. The 'jobless' recovery.

20 years of accumulated wealth was wiped away by Wall Street's scam.

Hell, 32% of America has gotten rid of ALL of their credit cards, if you can believe that.

link

I think its safe to say long term unemployment and millions of people being under on their mortgages impacted the hobby – and clearly continues to do so.

That's a very real and tangible reason to understand why attendance was down in 2010 and 2011 – in Pennsylvania, only an hour away from Lancaster.

That's a very real and tangible reason to understand why attendance was down in 2010 and 2011 – in Pennsylvania, only an hour away from Lancaster.

Don't discount the weekends the VCC conventions were held on. We went from traditionally the third week of July to the 4th weekend.

Just to level the playing field, I would have liked to see the FCC convention held the same weekends that the VCC conventions were held.

"20 years of accumulated wealth was wiped away by Wall Street's scam."

Um, actually that was a banking and mortgage industry problem, tied to poor oversight and political pressure to look the other way (by both parties,) not a stock problem. I would also point out that Congress and Presidents from both parties forced Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to take on increasing numbers of high risk loans. Plenty of blame to go around, but don't blame Wall Street for that one.

But, your point is well taken, and again why I have said I have no idea what the numbers would be if it even returned to the Host. But, we can only go by the numbers we have.

Anecdotally, I know some of my friends who had attended Hcon in the past at the Host, but didn't attend the VFCC because of the proximity to the 4th weekend, and they didn't want to drive into a heavily congested area for a weekend get away. Don't argue those points with me (I went to both), I'm just telling you their reasons.

It was always the plan of the organization to move the date away from the 4th when they could.

@History – I'll try to avoid yet another derailing of the thread, but Wall Street is not just the stock market. The term includes the financial giants – indeed, its synonymous with them. LOL, we need a pm feature so we can argue terms on the side.

LOL, we need a pm feature so we can argue terms on the side

Once you become a supporting member, there is a button that allows private messages – in email format.

It was always the plan of the organization to move the date away from the 4th when they could.

I would like to have seen how the attendance would be affected by the physical move and how it would be affected by the date move.

Nothing is going to satisfy those who want Historicon to return to central PA. A few years ago everyone who attended a Baltimore Convention was going to be executed by the gangs. Last year D.C. was a traffic black hole. Neither are true so on we move. Now they're concerned with attendance and next year it will be something else.

Historicon is in Fredericksburg because of the modern facility and hotels, the availability of food and entertainment and shopping facilities including a water park (for wives and children) and the location, next to I95.

Nevertheless, if you are serious and want to move Historicon back to central PA get elected to the HMGS Board. I'm still waiting for the after action reports on the proposed Lancaster convention the N.J. Con. But these guys are critics not workers. Heck many are not even HMGS members.

Bob Coggin

Just made my reservations at Homewood Suites for 2013 Historicon . Hope to see you all there .

So Bob, you're not happy with us because we're asking for the attendance numbers?

"The height of the con was not over 4000.

From the 2008 AAR:
This year's "Historical Miniature Gaming's Biggest Summer Vacation" at the Lancaster Host Resort & Conference Center in Lancaster, Pennsylvania was the largest attended ever for HISTORICON in it's first twenty-four years – a huge success!

Total attendance this year was 3,667 – that's up 12% over the attendance for 2007 (which was 3,272).
historicon.org/HIST2008/aar.asp

So unless the upper boundary is wrong on the official site itself, we can safely say that Civil's remembrance doesn't jibe with reality."

-----

No, you can't safely say that. What you can safely say is that you did not read what I wrote. I very clearly said that the record attendance was in the 1990s, but that I could not find data to link to from that period to document it, so I was using that which I could document. This is precisely what I was talking about. Are you so desperate to discredit anything negative about FCC that you find it necessary to misrepresent what I said?

Further, notwithstanding the actual record attendance, you have documented attendance over 3,600 as a recent high, which still presents a troublesome comparison to FCC.

---

"Dynaman's point about the long term impact of a weak economy vs one year trends is well made.

The Fed just released a major data dump last month. It only goes to 2010, as the current numbers haven't been analyzed.

But between 2007 and 2010, median income fell from 49.8K to 45.6K – a significant drop of 6.7% or so."

--

Why do you present a three year period beginning 19 months before Historicon 2009? Do you have data as to monthly or quarterly data points in that? Go to any financial site and look at any data – employment, economic growth, retail sales…you will find that in every particular 2009 is weaker than 2012 to date. I am no fan of how the government has handled the economy in the last few years, but to claim that the economy is exerting a stronger drag on a convention today as opposed to 2009 is to fly in the face of every measurable statistic.

Do you remember 2009? People were spending almost nothing. The retail landscape was disastrous. It's not good now, but to suggest that there is less disposable income going to leisure pursuits now than in 2009 is just outright incorrect.

"Nothing is going to satisfy those who want Historicon to return to central PA. A few years ago everyone who attended a Baltimore Convention was going to be executed by the gangs. Last year D.C. was a traffic black hole. Neither are true so on we move. Now they're concerned with attendance and next year it will be something else.

Historicon is in Fredericksburg because of the modern facility and hotels, the availability of food and entertainment and shopping facilities including a water park (for wives and children) and the location, next to I95.

Nevertheless, if you are serious and want to move Historicon back to central PA get elected to the HMGS Board. I'm still waiting for the after action reports on the proposed Lancaster convention the N.J. Con. But these guys are critics not workers. Heck many are not even HMGS members."

Bob,

Your reliability for providing incorrect and misleading information is impressive.

First, the problem with Baltimore was a lack of logistical feasibility and significantly higher costs. I specifically recall the farcical notion that GMs were supposed to get their cars from a garage, drop off stuff for a game, drive back to the garage to park, run the game, go get the car from the garage, pick up their stuff, and drive back to the garage. Twice a day if running two events, and likely paying each time he left the garage. No one ever answered that, because they didn't bother to seek answers for annoying problems.

For you to characterize the opposition to that utter disaster as a baseless concern about crime is spin of the worst kind. You should go work for one of the political campaigns.

Second, although I know that not having facts never stops you from commenting, I thought for a change you might like to have some. NJ Con wasn't a replacement for Historicon. This past NJ Con was #4, and there was one year it was skipped. I believe the first was in 2008, over a year before the last Hcon at the Host. It's nice that you try to portray people's hard work in putting that con together as some type of anti-Fredericksburg tantrum, but once again, there are those pesky facts.

Your "critics but not workers" statement is classic for you as well. Do you have the slightest idea what anyone who has been critical of the move does or does not do? Or is it just fun to insult a group of people with no evidence or accuracy. For the record, I am an HMGS member, have been for 22 years, have been to all but 3 of all the conventions in that time, and usually run three games. I know LIG has done a lot on the conventions in the past. So I'd ask what you are talking about if I didn't figure you had no idea.

Bob,

The water park was news to me- I assume you mean this one

link

Thank you- it is another thing my family can do at next years H'con while I am working the booth:)

Overall, I would have been there if I could have been. SO I missed it, but did NOT 'boycott.' Just one of those things.

Where do I (and those like me) fall in to the numbers in the great debate over attendance?

Oh, and I plan on coming next year, and bringing a buddy. Maybe even the kids. So that's two, with another two maybes.

Civil,

The convention was never held, thus, it is impossible to know whether or not it would have been a disaster. As I recall there was to be a safe-room for the storage of gaming stuff, just as there is a safe-room at Origins. No one would have been required to make multiple trips to a parking facility. But then we'll never know the convention was never held.

Because of that, because the then Board was hustled into moving to VF the Society wound up paying something like $70,000 USD and you guys got your convention. Had the conventin been held in Baltimore, the good reputation of HMGS would not have been severely damaged and the loss given no one would have attended (at least according to you) would have been a maximum of $35,000. USD So, for your convenience because you and the masses were so insistant HMGS spent $35,000 USD unnecessarily.

I stand corrected regarding your attendance. Though I would note gamers who host a number of events do not pay. Your continured opposition to the organization's decisions regarding the location of conventions leads me to think you are not a good member.

There is nothing wrong with vociferously advocating a position and you are certainly welcome to stand for the board and/or gather political support for your beliefs. Once a decision is made members can either support it or get off the train without continuing to attempt to undermine the decision. That is, if one cares for the goals of the Society.

So I reiterate, run for the board and advocate returning Historicon to PA rather than constantly hectoring HMGS because it won't do what you want.

Bob Coggins

"The convention was never held, thus, it is impossible to know whether or not it would have been a disaster. As I recall there was to be a safe-room for the storage of gaming stuff, just as there is a safe-room at Origins. No one would have been required to make multiple trips to a parking facility. But then we'll never know the convention was never held."

The primary point is that there were serious logistical problems that were inadequately addressed plus rebellion by dealers, etc. Your attempt to blame the debacle on a few malcontents just doesn't hold water. My understanding was that the contracts that were signed were inadequately vetted and that there were other costs and operational issues.

And, btw, I love the Baltimore location myself. I'm all for an urban location with lots of stuff in walking distance. The problem is, it just doesn't work for our needs. It is too expensive and too logistically challenging.

"I stand corrected regarding your attendance. Though I would note gamers who host a number of events do not pay. Your continured opposition to the organization's decisions regarding the location of conventions leads me to think you are not a good member. "

What is your definition of a "good member?" One who mindlessly and blindly supports anything those in power do? By some pretty clear and measurable statistics, the BOD in the last four years has led the organization disastrously. Squandered funds, bad feelings, plunging attendance, fewer dealers, fewer games.

As a member I paid my dues, attended almost every convention, and ran multiple games at each. But I guess if you don't kiss the rings of the BOD you are a "bad" member.

I'm also not sure why you found it necessary to take some kind of shot at the NJ Con guys, who ran their first show before HMGS even moved Historicon.

Bob

"Your continued opposition to the organization's decisions regarding the location of conventions leads me to think you are not a good member. "

Bob really? Please read that part of your post again and think it through.

Approximately 150 to 160 members votes were counted in latest election. All the winners were from the South. The vast majority is not involved politically in the "Organization". RICO was set up for such organizations.

Seriously though if you want (and I suspect that you don't) the majority more involved in the management of the organization then what we need is a new online voting system and more communication between the Board and members both emailed minutes of meetings and an active and uncensored message board for discussion would be a start.

Racketeering? Sure, Gil, sure.

Did you vote?

Did you run?

As far as the Southern 'conspiracy', a quick glance shows that the 3 people elected in the most recent election are the only ones that bothered to provide bios and platforms for the consideration of the members.

Unless you can prove that people were left out of that, its hard to see how there's any conspiracy when these three people were the only ones bothering to campaign.

Oh, and its been said before but it bears repeating – anyone who lives in the DC Metro area knows that Northern Virginia isn't the South.

The DC Metro area however is the single largest concentration of membership.

A few facts may help everyone in this discussion.

Here's a link provided by our Treasurer, Kevin Kelley:

link

Note that the map counts *addresses* and NOT individuals, so if two members live at the same address, that's only one hit.

Same people, same themes, same gripes, and it all boils down to waa…waa…waaa.

sma1941,

You know what is more tiresome, whiny, inexplicable, and utterly valueless than people still debating this? It's people who have nothing better to do than come on here and post nothing of substance, but just to whine about the debate itself.

That demographic map is interesting. You can see why Lancaster was a good location, as it is a reasonable distance from most of the concentrations of members.

On the other hand, Fredericksburg, while not inconvenient for DC-area members, is a greater distance for most of the others.

Of course, not all attendees are members, so we don't know if it would be a little less lopsided if all attendees were shown. Still, if looks like FCC has a significant demographic hurdle to overcome.

CD,

I don't think it's as bad as you think. As I pointed out some time ago, Virginia is over-represented on TMP versus other states. It's the number 12 state by population but the number 5 state as self-described by TMP account-holders. No other state varies by that much. And I can nearly guarantee you that the vast majority of that pool of potential attendees is in the I-95 corredor. Fredericksburg is in the middle of multiple military posts (Pentagon, Ft. Belvoir, Quantico, Ft. Lee, Norfolk Naval Base, Andrews AFB, Eglin AFB, the list goes on…) and has an educated population, many in the Computer IT field. I don't think many Amish are attending shows in Lancaster, so the FCC probably has a greater one-day/new attendee potential.

Firstvarty,

You are probably right about day trips. I would say Lancaster is moderately convenient to more people, but very convenient to few. Fredericksburg seems very convenient to more than Lamcaster, but moderately to fewer. If I managed to get that point out coherently, which I'm not sure. Lol.

Bob, how do we know what kind of job the BOD is doing, as they have hit an all time low (or high) in not posting minutes – a year and a half.

It makes it impossible to be a good member when the minutes haven't been posted in so long – including the deliberations of how they got to the FCC. Are they hiding something again?

How on earth are we, as members, to exercise due diligence (or hold our voices) when there is zero transparency going on? It makes it even more ridiculous to tell people to run for the BOD, as I have no idea what anyone's opinion is on the BOD, who is in charge of what, or what they are doing and why?

Getting elected to the BOD guarantees fixing nothing. Ask some former BOD members about their experiences.

Honestly, an an organization, I think it has jumped the shark, and has even me questioning my continued membership.
:-(

From the Demographic Map it is interesting That for the weight of the membership its seems that the geographic center would be around the Lancaster area. (What are those crazy guys in Cleveland and Columbus thinking--glad to have them though and Hawaii? wow) Lancaster seems to provide everything we need for our strange predilection at less cost then is reported for the other locations.

Anyway one thing that often gets missed in assessing locations for the con is that our conventions should be about gamming and shopping and the things that really go with it. They should be about dining, accommodations; Street Presence or sightseeing. These conventions are for us to gather in a Big Tent Right wing, left wing military; hippie but just for the joy of playing with our toy soldiers. As for our purpose as and Organizations HMGS should remember how it was born. The real way to get new gamers is at out local gamming stores or get togethers. New recruits should be infected slowly; not forced to make the investment of a Con just invite interested folks to join in at your Store or when you get together in each other's homes etc. Remember "The first taste is free" share the lead guys.

Gil,

I agree. I've said many times, the Host is a dump, but it suits the needs of the convention. I'm continually amazed at the perceived need for a nicer hotel when, frankly, I'd just be happy if half the attendees took a shower once during the weekend.

I actually liked FCC and the surrounding support businesses. I really disliked being so far offsite, and I hated the fact that so many people weren't there. If I am onsite in one of the hotels and all the lost attendees were convinced to go, I'd be fine with FCC.

That's what frustrates me with some of the pro-move posters (not all, just some) because they just rate everything in FCC as fantastic because they are in favor of the location. At the Host they don't clean the bathrooms; at FCC the gamers pee on the floor. At the Host the tables are uneven; at FCC the only people who have a problem with the chairs are obese gamers who don't fit. The Host is insulated from the recession; FCC only has lower attendance because of the recession. Route 30 is a death highway; 95 and the DC area don't have traffic issues as long as you have a GPS to "sidestep" it.

For all that I think the move was a bad idea, I can say nice things about FCC when they are warranted. If you want to make yourself into a cheerleader because you like the location closer to you, so be it, but you don't add anything meaningful to the debate.

"I'm still waiting for the after action reports on the proposed Lancaster convention the N.J. Con. But these guys are critics not workers. Heck many are not even HMGS members."

Bob Coggins

Being one of the original NJcon founders and organizers I will try not to take this barb too personally.

Civil: Thank you for noting that we have been running our convention since 2008 and we will be hosting NJcon5 in 2013.

I can tell you the organizing members of NJcon are all dues paying members of HMGS and attend all 3 of the major annual conventions without exception since 2006. We have also attended The Williamsburg Muster since it was founded.

My wife has accused me of being too critical and not doing enough work around the house so Bob may be right in that regard.

If you wish to find out more about NJcon you will just need to come see that for yourself.

Regards,

TRU

I realy like the FCC and think we have a good site. Of course I like conventions on battelfields.

So as an aside the only thing I miss from conventions sites past is Gettysburg in the fall.

Cheers,
Joel

Civil:

Where did you find the links to the Hcon AARs and are there any numbers in them for 2010 and 2011? It would be nice to see a five year trend when the numbers finally come out.

Any help appreciated. :-)

HG,

link

Just change the year in the url. I couldn't find any links off of the main Hcon site. Also, they are only posted for so many years back. I'm pretty sure the peak was late 90s, but they don't go back that far.

Thanks, got it. Here is the five year attendance trend for Hcon:

2011 – 2,958
2010 – 2,980
2009 – 3,565
2008 – 3,667
2007 – 3,272

I look forward to seeing how the FCC did, as some are claiming it did very well.

If it breaks 2500 that would be good enough for me, but a shame that it would be 1000 less than 3 years prior.

Botched attempted move to Baltimore, last-minute change to Valley Forge, move to weekend after July 4th, and redevelopment of the VFCC as a casino were all body blows that HMGS and Historicon managed to survive. It's a good thing they had saved up all that money – it sure was put to
"good use"! :(

" That demographic map is interesting. You can see why Lancaster was a good location, as it is a reasonable distance from most of the concentrations of members."

The membership demographic is a consequence of holding the conventions in the Lancaster area for .. what .. 15 years.
If I get some time this spring I will redo it and see if there is a noticeable shift.

Kevin

@Civil

Any recovery in the economy to this point is minor. Check out the CCI and correspond it with the numbers sited above. Your glory days of the con were held in a stable environment when consumer confidence was through the roof.

If anything, this shows that moving the con to Baltimore was a) incredibly badly timed and b) an amazing success considering how likely people were to spend on non-essential goods and services in 2009. The reasons it failed were other than attendance, which was strong considering the economy.

We'll see what the numbers are for 2012, but no, comparing them to 2005-2007 isn't valid – the economy is in a totally different place then compared to now.

Consumer Confidence Index (July)
2003 83
2004 105
2005 105
2006 107
2007 112
2008 52
2009 48
2010 51
2011 59
2012 65

My guess is attendance will be in the 2800-3000 range. Yes, less of the old guard probably attended, but more new people likely showed up. With 2 cons at the Host for the folks that don't want to travel, that means more overall members for HMGS, which is a good thing.

So, based on our last year at the Host (which was not the highest number we can find so far),

in 2010, at the VFCC, attendance declined 16%

in 2011, at the VFCC, attendance declined 17%

if we get 2,600 attendees at FEC, that would be a decline of 27, or, another 10% loss beyond VFCC%.

That's if the number of attendees was 2,600.

Here is the other thing, if the BOD today does not put a place holder down for the Host in either 2014 or 2015, you can forget returning there in the next couple of years. In other words, the BOD today is making decisions that will affect years to come.

My grade for Historicon is an A-. There were a few things I'd change, but compared to previous years at the Host, it was great. I'd give the Host a C- by the way. It's just too grotty there, but I have some fond memories of the place. I can't see returning there for the other cons either. I'll just stick to Historicon from now on, which will hopefully stay at the new venue for a while. If the organizers and venue can iron out the few kinks, it will be great.

Demi,

I'm really not trying to be argumentative. I'm not. But you own numbers prove my point. CCI dropped off a cliff between 2008 and 2009, yet attendance was still over 3,500. You keep saying the days of higher attendance were during a better economy, but the cold, hard, numerical fact is that isn't true. The only two variables since 2009 were the location and (for 2010 and 2011) the changed weekend.

You will note the consumer confidence number you posted for 2009 is actually lower than the one for 2012. Again, the 3,500+ at the last convention happened when confidence was lower than it is now. Other numbers, such as retail sales and economic growth, would show an even starker difference, with 2009 numbers significantly worse.

As far as what attendance was, I guess we'll see. I've been to over 20 Hcons, and it felt light to me. There were fewer games, and more of them were cancelled. I really don't see how it's possible that attendance wasn't lower than last year, but we'll see.

HG,

Good point. They keep blowing off talk about the Host, saying it's not available. But if they'd reserved it a few years out in 2010 they'd be back already. They could reserve for 2014 or 2015 or whatever is available and stay at FCC in the interim. So unavailability of the Host is an excuse, not the reason it doesn't go back. There is an agenda at work.

Never attribute to conspiracy to that which incompentence can explain.