"Pakistan Shuts Its Border" Topic

"For nearly six months, Pakistan has closed its ground shipping routes to convoys resupplying the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. Getting those resupply routes open is preoccupying U.S. military officers and diplomats as they haggle, sweet-talk, beg and cajole their Pakistani counterparts, since alternative shipping routes are vastly more expensive. Exactly how expensive, the Pentagon won't say, probably because disclosing that figure could undermine the U.S. in its talks with its Pakistani frenemy.

The so-called "Ground Lines of Communication" — GLOCs, pronounced "Gee-Locks" in military parlance — slammed shut after a November disaster in which U.S. troops killed 24 of their Pakistani counterparts during a chaotic nighttime border mission. That's a costly closure. Last year, every U.S. shipping container crossing in through Pakistan cost the U.S. about $6,200 USD, according to Defense Department figures provided to Danger Room. The average container flown in from the air transit route at Manas, Kyrgyzstan cost a whopping $15,800. USD

Military officials won't disclose just how much more it's actually cost to ship goods through Manas. "I have nothing releasable on transportation costs, or percentage of increase in spending," says Cynthia Bauer, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Transportation Command. Privately, they know exactly how much it costs, as logistics are a crucial factor in prosecuting any war.

Jeffrey Dressler, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank with close ties to the U.S. military, explains what the Pentagon won't. "It's pretty simple: if we released a number on how much it's cost us, Pakistan would come back with a number below it, and probably not too far below it," he says. "When dealing with a difficult negotiating partner, you don't want to show your hand."

Talks between Washington and Islamabad to open the GLOC back up don't seem to be going well. "The effort to try to get them open before Chicago" — that is, NATO's big summit on the war next week — "doesn't appear like it's going to happen," Dressler says.

But it's possible to get some sense of how much Pakistan's unwillingness to reopen the gates actually costs.

As Inside The Army first flagged, a recent Pentagon report on Afghanistan cited "nearly 4,194 [Afghan army vehicles] are currently stranded in Pakistan due to the closure of the Pakistani ground lines of communication." (.pdf) That figure was just about Afghan army logistics vehicles, so it's hardly indicative of the total amount of halted shipping. But it does allow for some back-of-the-envelope calculations.

Assume that each shipping container requires two trucks to haul it. That's about 2,100 containers. Each of them costs $15,800 USD to fly through Manas instead of trucked through Pakistan, which costs $6,200 USD instead. Cost: about $33.2 USD million, instead of about $13 USD million. So operating on conservative cost assumptions, the U.S. spent about an extra $20.1 USD million in shipping just for those 4,194 Afghan vehicles idling across the border in Pakistan.

To be clear, the Pentagon won't say how many shipping containers are actually going through Manas instead of the GLOC. And we probably won't know until talks with the Pakistanis on reopening that ground trucking route conclude.

Pakistan has already exacted a cost for its dead soldiers. It kicked the CIA out of a Pakistani airbase used as a launchpad for the drone war. Should the U.S. publicize how much extra the closure of the GLOCs cost, Pakistani negotiators would probably suddenly think of new, costly concessions to extract from Washington in exchange for opening the gates.

The U.S. continues to negotiate with the Pakistanis over reopening the GLOCs. Marine Gen. John Allen, the commander of NATO troops in Afghanistan, met with top Pakistani general Ashfaq Parvez Kayani over the weekend, and the issue came up. But to no avail.

U.S. military officials, including Allen, have consistently said that losing the Pakistani shipping route is a problem, but it hasn't actually affected the war effort. Still, keeping the figure concealed means U.S. taxpayers don't actually know how much the Afghanistan war costs. Congress approved $115.1 USD billion for wartime spending (.pdf) last year, the vast majority of which paid for Afghanistan. But that price has clearly gone up, entirely in secret. Which also means the taxpayers don't know how much Pakistan's intransigence is really costing them."
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With "Allied" like that…

Amicalement
Armand

Just another reason for u to get out of that #### hole. We are just there for high score at this point-there is no such thing as a win in Afghanistan.

^^^I concur with your assessment.

Anyone whos been near this forum couldve told them this is how it would end. I dont think anyones subdued afghanistan since the arabs got there in the 8th century

Pakistan signals end to blockade of NATO supplies
by Staff Writers
Islamabad (AFP) May 15, 2012

Top Pakistani leaders will Tuesday discuss ending a blockade of foreign military supply routes into Afghanistan and repairing US relations, signalling a rapprochement ahead of a NATO summit.

Islamabad shut its Afghan border to NATO supplies after US air strikes killed 24 soldiers in November, provoking a new crisis in relations on top of the outcry from the US raid that killed Osama bin Laden the previous May.

But Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said on Monday that it was time to "move on", conceding a key demand from the West in time for Pakistan to attend the NATO summit in Chicago on Sunday and Monday.

Pakistan has called in vain for an end to US drone strikes targeting Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants on its soil, and a formal apology for the November killings.

But analysts say Pakistan has no choice but to reopen the border when US cash is needed to help boost its meagre state coffers, at a time when major NATO discussions are underway affecting its own strategic future.

"It was important to make a point, Pakistan has made a point and we now need to move on and go into a positive zone and try to conduct our relations," Khar told a news conference.

"We are trying to put this relationship, you know, in a positive zone and I am quite sure that we will be successful in doing so," she said.

The Pakistani cabinet's defence committee, which groups senior civilian and military figures including the prime minister, army chief of staff and intelligence chief, will convene from 1430 GMT on Tuesday.

A meeting of the full cabinet is expected to follow on Wednesday, officials have said.

Pakistan's involvement in the Chicago summit could boost the country's leverage over the future of Afghanistan, as NATO countries pull out their combat forces by 2014 after a decade of increasingly unpopular war.

Asked whether Islamabad would allow a resumption of NATO supplies, Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira said on Monday that a decision would be made within days but refused to go into detail, citing "sensitivities".

The US State Department said both countries had made "considerable progress" on ending the blockade, which has held up lengthy convoys of fuel and supply trucks all the way to the Pakistani port city of Karachi in the south.

Pakistani and US officials spent the weekend locked in talks in Islamabad on reaching an understanding to govern fees, logistics and other obligations should trucks again carry NATO supplies through Pakistan.

The supply line negotiating team arrived in the country with US special envoy Marc Grossman, who visited in April, and stayed on after he left, officials said.

"They are not yet finished with the Pakistanis," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters.

"But we're having a full review with the government of Pakistan on how this transit system works and all of the issues are on the table in that context."

Islamabad reiterated Monday that it would still like an apology for the November air strikes, with the foreign minister saying it was "on the table".

The United States has expressed regret for the deaths, which an American and NATO investigation said stemmed from mistakes made on both sides during fighting on the Afghan border with Pakistan.

In a further sign that tensions are easing, Pakistan on Sunday hosted the most senior talks with NATO and the Afghan military in nearly a year, focused on improving border coordination"

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"They are not yet finished with the Pakistanis," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters.

I wish this was being delivered by someone like Darth Vader. It would be a lot more menacing and meaningful.

Really, though, it's better to take our toys and go home. I don't want to want to wargame a Pakistani COIN war: far too much like the last ten years of gaming.

And we ARE talking about wargaming, right? Because it would be crazy to talk politics.

Politics or Logistics? . You are right. I wouldn't want to game a COIN campaign either. It would be the same 'cept for possible Nukes. Robert

I wonder what had a bigger influence?

The taliban losing all their income from trucking companies and highway robbery, or, the Pakistani government running out of cash to pay for chinese MRBMs and North Korean nukes?

I can picture the latest the latest iteration of Kim standing with his hand out, "No credit! Cash only!"

I can picture the latest the latest iteration of Kim standing with his hand out, "No credit! Cash only!"

I'm so glad I wasn't drinking anything when I read that!

Well, as a strategy for the "wargame", I'd hint strongly that the cash payments they were to get are distributed over the inbound convoys scheduled for the next year or so, and that should there by any delays, then delivery of said aid might unreliable in the future.

The April issue of Current History is devoted to the area. Thre are several articles on the relationship between the US and Pakistan which are quite interesting.

Pull out of Afghanistan and leave Pakistan … drop all US aid to both Afghanistan and Pakistan … Double orbital surveillance … Flood their air space with drones … and blow up anything that could possibly be a terrorist threat … Not much of a wargame though …

I'm trying to find the article but recently in the past month I read where Russia and country to the north of Afghan agreed to allow more supplies to fly into one of their old bases to the north of Afgahanstan and truck them south.

There is an agreement to establish a logistic point for air supply route in Ulyanovsk (Volga region). It actually created quite a storm in media as all preparation stages were kept under a high level of secrecy, so a number of parliament deputees announced that the government is selling the country to NATO and allowing foreign troops on Russian soil.
As far as I know, USA is also toning down its human rights violation rhetorics to get a better foothold in Kirgizstan and Uzbekistan as back-up.

Last 'successful' conqueror of Afghanistan was Timur Lenk, he of the pyramids of skulls, not even a stray dog left alive policies. They still haven't really recovered from that one.

The British were really only trying to convince the Afghani to play nicely when they were around, and they had to take to big stick out repeatedly, but didn;'t really try to stick around after the first big disaster – Maiwand was just a punitive mission that went badly wrong.

I hope the US government didn't pay too much money to the Pakistani's to get their cooperation, as that would have been a bad investment.

It is sort of amazing to me how brazenly the Pakistani government is playing both sides of the coin.