"LOTR SBG: Why archery is almost pointless" Topic

After a handful of games playing LOTR SBG, we've found archery hard to justify having in our army. My friend did some math, here is what he came up with.

.33 probability of hitting a target with a 5+ atk.
.1667 probability of wounding with a str 2 bow vs a 5 or 6 def.
(.33)(.1667)= .0555 or 5.6% chance a moria goblin has of wounding a gondor warrior.

.5 probability of hitting target with a 4+ atk.
.1667 probability of wounding with a str 2 bow vs 5 or 6 def.
(.5)(.1667)= .083 or 8.3% chance of wounding a goblin as a gondor bowman.

.33 probability of hitting aragorn with a 5+ atk
(.1667)(.5)=.083 probability of rolling a 6 followed by a 4 to wound.
(.33)(.083)= .0275 or 2.75% chance of wounding aragorn while he is in heavy armor (def 7)

Alone, archery is almost useless. You have to cluster fire. The odds of landing a wound increase a lot if you can fire at a single target with multiple shots.

Take Legolas triple fire technique.
3+ accuracy = .667 probability of hitting
str 3 bow vs def 6 is still a .1667 probability of wounding
(.667)(.1667)=.111133 or 11.11% chance of wounding someone if he only fires once.
To find the odds of at least 1 of three shots wound you must first find the probability of wounding with all three shots.
.1111^3= .0014 or 0.14% chance of wounding a def 6 character 3 times.
The converse or opposite would be At least 1 of three shots wound. To find the converse subtract .0014 from 1. You get…

1-0.0014=.9986 or 99.86% chance of Legolas wounding a def 6 character at least 1 time with his triple shot! The power of archery lies in numbers. Therefore when using archers, they must all fire at the same target to be effective.

For the most part, it seems like a waste of space. in the last game we played it took 7 archers 3 turns to finally hit Cirion. At least with Evil, it seems archery is almost pointless. thoughts? anyone know how to make it a little more worth it?

anyone know how to make it a little more worth it?

Increase the probability of a hit and/or the probability of a hit causing a wound.

Switch to a d10, or d20 system you will have more room to work with.

Pointless? It depends whether you are an elf of a goblin.

Here is an alternate method for archery that is less harsh to goblins or others with Strength 2 weapons.

link

Needs some rules for "Blinding Light," but that's the gist.

[Edit: I think high Defense characters are intended to be largely immune to archery by design. Not that it is good design, but that appears to be the designer's intent.]

Your Legolas triple shot math is wrong. It's much closer to 30% of a hit.

88.89% chance of missing the first shot
88.89% chance of missing 2nd shot
88.89% chance of missing 3rd shot
(.8889 x.8889 x .8889) = .7024 chance of missing/failing to wound with all three shots.

Doesn't affect your point though.

You're playing a movie, dude. The Good Guys don't get shot unless it's A Very Dramatic Moment™, in which case they have to be shot multiple times in slow-mo.

The lower probability comes with the benefit that your target isn't swinging back at you and that you will often have several shots before they close in for the attack. Finally, if you plan it right you can have good melee troops just forward of your archer so that incoming enemies have to connect with them first.

Volley fire – it works when you have 30 goblin archers out there – you can actually do something to the heroes. I found that my Moria goblins were able to handle things fair enough, until the heroes got into close combat and then things went to heck until I could get one of my heavy hitters in to try to deal with them.

Note that in the game, the number of archers are restricted to a third because the points cost for adding a bow is not balanced. Thus, even though the percentages are weak (but only against high defenses because of the d6), rarely do you see a competitive list that does not include the 33% archers in their warriors. The moral is to shoot at things that are not wearing heavy armor carrying large shields.

I've never used Evil archers, but I've had variying results using my Elven and Ranger archers. They work well when firing in groups, and are effective as support for melee troops…

I guess the intent of the rules is to incourage to get up close and personal with quick and deceicive results instead of getting bugged down in a prolonged shooting match…
The LOTR SBG system is more a game than a combat simulation.

I have many issues with the game, as mentioned above, and with the old west version. Cover rules get wonky. Skills playing almost no role in close combat. The wonky fall back 1" rule. Sigh. Just don't think too much when playing. It is simple though. :-/

I like the falling back 1" rule. It makes the combat a little more fluid. I don't like it when you have two figs that are locked in combat for 2 or 3 rounds and they stay in the same place the whole time.

Bill, TMP's been infected with Mathammer. The only course of action is to burn it to the ground, salt the earth, and start again somewhere outside a 50 mile radius.

-----
Warren B.
minisculpture.co.uk

Archery. Pointless. Ha, ha, ha, I get it!

Try running the numbers against an Army of the Dead and especially the King of the Dead. You have to roll a loooong series of 6's to even stand a chance of wounding him.

There was a reason I also had an Army of the Dead…

A very POINTED discussion indeed, he said with ARCHED eyebrow. And not a FLIGHT of fancy either. I have to BOW to your wisdom and agree as your conclusion SHOT straight as an ARROW to the heart of the matter.

LOTR SBG certainly is focused on melee and poorly simulates late medieval northern european archers. However, if you think about the goblin archers in the mines of moria scene, nary a hit on the intrepid fellowship with the storm of goblin arrows. Same for the Uruks at Helms Deep.

I try to take a nice combined arms force with archers, infantry, cavalry, a magic user, a named hero, and some Captains to make sure I have some counter to the opponents tricky plans. Sure enough if you don't take archers, the opponent will figure out some safe place to squirrel away his and slowly harras you to death.

OBTW, if Legolas is on the other side you best keep your heros shielded or they will soon be dead heros. Just ask Lurtz….

Lost Pict

Try running the numbers against an Army of the Dead

To be fair, most ghosts are tricky to hit with archery.

LOTR SBG is a skirmish game, with archery represented as close-range snapshots. With the standard scenario table size of four feet by four this means that the furthest an archer can shoot is about 90 metres, based on figure size/ground scale. How many shots could be got away while an opponent rushes that distance across the battlefield?

Shoot enough arrows and the target formation will start to fall apart. An SBG game doesn't last long enough for arrow storms to become effective.

I concur that realism has been sacrificed for a combination of gameplay ('twas ever thus with wargames) and mimicking the films, but it does mean that non-missile armies don't have to spend long, dull turns absorbing incoming arrows while their opponent rolls a squillion dice…

I think Typhoon has the gist of the idea – hurried snapshots against running opponents.

Here is some information on modern pistol combat shooting accuracy from analysis of a number of police fire-fights: link

In comparision, bows also require the shooter the shooter to draw an arrow, nock it, pull the bow, and release all of which should reduce bow effectiveness in comparision to the 1992 combat pistol accuracy of 4.2% at 7 to 15 yards (or 2 to 8 inches for 25mm miniautres).

One slight tweak would be to let a non-heroic archer's make his first shot of the game at +1 with the caveat that he doesn't move.

Lost Pict

Four minor points on the relative strength of archery in LOTR SBG.

1) Archery's power is directly related to the terrain of the game. Even with the meager odds chang1701 presents, on a 6 foot by 4 foot table with sparse cover, cheap archers (goblins, orcs, men) or elves are more powerful than the 1 point (or 2 for elves) sacrificed to equip the unit with a bow.

.33 probability of hitting a target with a 5+ atk.
.1667 probability of wounding with a str 2 bow vs a 5 or 6 def.
(.33)(.1667)= .0555 or 5.6% chance a moria goblin has of wounding a gondor warrior.

Extrapolate this over 4 turns of archery fire…
There is a 22% chance to defeat the 7 point (or 8 point) Warrior of Gondor before close combat. That works out to 1.5 points of loss for the opponent. Cost for a bow? 1 point.
Granted, 4 direct shots is a bit optimistic on most game tables, but even at two shots, a bow is a wash from a point perspective. As it impacts the opponents tactics, even at 0.75 points of loss for the opponent, it might be worth it. David's point about competition forces normally having a maximum of 33% archers is very good.

2) Within LOTR SBG archers are not inferior close combatants. While archers are anemic waifs in many games, in LOTR SBG they hold their own in close combat.

3) Early medieval combat was decided by melee rather than ranged combat. Only Tolkien's elves are portrayed otherwise and they are very effective with archery.

4) By historical standards, LOTR SBG archery is withering. Imagine the LOTR version of Pickett's Charge. The goblin defenders of Cemetery Ridge have a range of 18" with bows and 36" with volley. The pride of Gondor under General Pickett move 6" per turn. Say 200 points of goblins, 40 models. Gondor would have 29 7-point men with shields and sword.

Volley fire is 50% as effective as direct fire.

Turn 1…Volley…2.24 men fall
Turn 2…Volley…2.24 men fall
Turn 3…Direct…4.48 men fall
Turn 4…Direct…4.48 men fall
(It is more likely that one or two more turns of fire would be inflicted including another of direct fire, but I estimated everything to Gondor's favor.)

16 men make it to the top of Cemetery Ridge. They are outnumbered 40:16 against quite capable opponents.

Confederate Gondorian casualty rate? 45%
Estimate of historical Pickett's Charge casualty rate? 50%

As written, LOTR SBG archery used against armored foes from the weakest force (goblins) is almost as effective as Union artillery and firearms used from prepared positions.

[Edit: I was composing this as typhoon and Lost Pict were making points. Very good points.]

Again, I love this about TMP. Well reasoned, excellent points.
This is still my favorite quick and dirty set of rules.

I always thought that they were pretty realistic. In comparison to Warhammer Fantasy, it's not. WHF so way overpowers archers.

Your Legolas triple shot math is wrong. It's much closer to 30% of a hit.

88.89% chance of missing the first shot
88.89% chance of missing 2nd shot
88.89% chance of missing 3rd shot
(.8889 x.8889 x .8889) = .7024 chance of missing/failing to wound with all three shots.

Doesn't affect your point though.

Thanks for the math correction