"Straits of Hormuz Battle Shaping Up?" Topic

Break out your modern air and naval rules again, for another hypothetical engagement in the Straits of Hormuz, since the Iranians are again threatening to close it to all shipping:

link

My guess is if they make good on their promise, there will be more artificial reefs in the region, made from various Iranian vessels, for the local fish and shellfish populations to enjoy.

Still, good fodder for a hypothetical, combined air/sea engagement, and perhaps even the odd special forces raid or two, as well.

Harpoon published a nice supplement on the region awhile back, which no doubt needs updating, but is a good place to start.

Harpoon, or Shipwreck would be good for the naval battles, and I'd use Clash of Sabres for the aerial combat in conjunction with either one of the above.

1/2400th for the ships, and 1/600th or 1/300th for the aircraft.

You could go with 1/1200th scale jets too, which would be a better match for the vessels, if you mount the fighters in pairs, on stands. They'd be a good replacement for counters.

I predict Salamis 2.0 with the Persians on the same losing end

The Iranians have a lot of weird unconventional stuff.
Hopefully, there's a couple of very good reasons no one else uses that technology.

If the Iranians attempt to close the straits, they will come close to crashing their economy.

Iran's economy is in a near-shambles already, and is wholly dependent upon it's petroleum exports. What little excess cash they have they've sunk into their nuclear research, and that's been a money-pit for them these past few years, even with North Korean and Syrian assistance.

Forget about the US in this: Europe, in it's own precarious situation will not stand for any sort of blackmail to it's fuel imports.

The Persians apparently have this genetic thing about clashing with the west. They've been at it for over 25 centuries now.

Sigh.

Gee why is it every time a conflict of nations arise we wargamers seem to be so giddy? I hate to sound preachy but REALLY???
Dennis

>The Persians apparently have this genetic thing about clashing with the west. They've been at it for over 25 centuries now.

That works both ways. This hasn't happened in isolation, where the Iranians undertake this provocation for giggles. The press have carried a lot of rhetoric trying, but failing, to get public support for some kind of strike on Iran. Add to that this US drone ended up on the wrong side of the border

link

All your drone are belong to us, as they say.

Hopefully nothing will happen. The last thing that any of our economies need is another oil shock.

Man. I suppose the helicopter was lucky it didn't crash into the sub.

We waste too much time, blood, and sweat on these guys. The cost of dealing with the Iranians would have us in orbiting Jupiter space stations by now.

Hmm. Aliens could be influencing the Iranians to distract us from getting to Jupiter?!

I suspect the Iranians will continue to sell their oil to their friends, the Chinese, and they and the Russians will play along at the UN, since the increased price of the commodity strengthens them, and weakens the West.

Sure, NATO nations will be peeved, but I can't imagine there is a lot they can do about it, on their own.

The UK doesn't have carriers anymore, or naval jets, and have to share a carrier part time with the French. Most other NATO nations are worse off, and I'm not sure the Spanish or Italians will want to use their carriers in the Persian Gulf.

Not to mention the world economy is in a shambles, and leaning towards a global recession. Spiking oil prices might just make that worse.

It'll be interesting to see who blinks first.

Anyone besides me remember the mines they used last time? They can shut down the oil coming through the Straits of Hormuz. Show of hands those of you that can afford six dollar or more a gallon of gas.
VR
James Mattes

Helos are pretty good at clearing the floating ones.

Neutralizing the bottom mines will be more difficult, and time consuming.

"If the Iranians attempt to close the straits, they will come close to crashing their economy."

And everyone else's. bad all round (but then again, some countries have further to fall).

"The Iranians have a lot of weird unconventional stuff.
Hopefully, there's a couple of very good reasons no one else uses that technology."

Think of a lot of their stuff in the same way we think of IEDs and other asymmetric warfare methods in Afghanistan

Maybe some interesting reading on the subject….

"Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz" with link below:

PDF link

Cheers
M aka WR

If they build a nuke they can do what they want.

Michael,
Thanks for the link I have only read about 1/3 so far and too tired to read it right now but will.

VR
James Mattes

If they build a nuke they can do what they want.

"The United States reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first."

Yeah, we'd eat impossible amounts of bad press for it, but threatening a significant chunk of the world's energy supply will result in seriously bad things happening. Iraq found that out the hard way back in 1991. The US could even make a very pointed example of Iran by simply using the smallest nuclear weapon in the arsenal and publicly stating that. "You screw around with Nukes, there will be consequences."

I'm still leaning towards a more polite solution involving a number of mysterious losses of Iranian ships.

James, here in the UK we already pay over 9 dollars per gallon!

If the current administration (at the risk of getting all political) would ease certain regulations, the US would be a net EXPORTER of oil and natural gas which would diminish the impact of any interruption of the middle East oil supply.

As for high priced gas, that is often more an issue of refining capacity than it is the price per barrel of oil. In recent times, currency values have also had an impact as well.

Timbo W 28 Dec 2011 3:57 a.m. PST wrote:
James, here in the UK we already pay over 9 dollars per gallon!

I hear you! I was stationed in Germany in 1980 we had gas ration cards that allowed us to pay about 1/2 what the Germans had to pay for gas.

VR
James Mattes

Not happening Milhouse. The environmental crowd is just too powerful. The US will be sitting on those reserves forever and the public will be told that we don't have them OR that they are too expensive to get too… or the environmental impact is just too much.

It literally would take $9 USD a gallon to motivate the public to put pressure on the government to ignore the eco-types and to begin production, which would be too little too late when things are literally that bad.

Yeah Timbo, you guys are totally clobbered in gas prices. I visited London years ago to meet my girlfriend's (at the time) family. As we driving to London from Heathrow I saw a gas station and I was surprised to see the gas prices as they didn't look that bad. I pointed that out to my GF who just smiled and shook her head.

"That's per litre, Scott"

Ouch…

And that was 1999.

But as I understand it, much of what you pay is tax when you buy gas over in Europe.

That wouldn't wash in the US. Most Americans live quit some distance from work and have a fairly longish commute- typically 30 minutes or more one way. This is done because housing in the US is really cheap outside cities so it makes great economic sense to live out in the suburbs and commute to work. But that benefit goes away when energy prices go up.

I'm a case in point. I work near Washington DC but I use to live much closer to Baltimore. My apartment in Baltimore was less than $1,000 USD per month and gas prices were reasonable. But then we had the gas shocks a few years ago and I was getting mugged (badly- up to $65 USD a fill up and I had to do that twice a week!) at the gas pump. So me and my family picked up and moved to Prince George's County and cut my commute by more than half. Now I pay over $1,500 USD per month rent but my gas cost is MUCH lower so me and my family saved a lot (now I need to only fill up once and prices are much lower), but now we pay way more in housing and the cost of living here is somewhat higher than in Baltimore County.

I imagine a lot of American families had to take similar measures, many of whom had to sell off their houses to do this… and sell in a buyer's market to-boot. The point of this is that many/most Americans are very susceptible to gas shocks and anything adding to the price of gas is deeply unpopular especially in a time in which many employers have cut payrolls and many employees haven't seen raises in literally years.

Scot I have a 3 1/2 story with full funished basement and two fireplaces, top end townhouse in a cul du sac with garage in Laurel I will rent to you for around 2000.00 a month. Between Powdermill road and and 197 just off BWI Parkway!

VR
James Mattes

Thanks James, that is very generous of you. That's a great price for this region. Sadly it's out of my reach. That would be different of my baby girl didn't burn $600 USD a month in child care… but I'm one of those no pay raise in years guys (but according to a PG County paper I'm well over paid!)

It sounds like it is just down the street from where I live! LOL!

Actually the U.S. is a net exporter as of this year.

link

The problem is that any jitters in the Middle East start the vultures (excuse me, speculators) bidding up the price of oil futures, and the US oil companies use that as an excuse to immediately raise their prices.

After all, they were reporting record profits when the oil futures were at their peak.

"If the current administration (at the risk of getting all political) would ease certain regulations…".

That's not going to happen with the current administration.

They prefer to have foreigners drill for gas, and have even given the Brazilians truckloads of money to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, when American companies were prohibited from doing so.

They've also nixed the gas pipeline from our friends the Canadians, as well, which leaves us more vulnerable to our enemies.

From what I've read I thought the USN was letting their mcm skills lapse since the USSR broke up. Every so often I come across an article that brings it up. The Littoral combat ship, the answer to hostile waters, doesn't look like it's the "disposable streetfighter" it was envisioned to be.

We depend upon the European navies to supply most of the MCM vessels.

However, we have fast minesweeping helos, which tow a sled behind them, and can clear fairly large swaths of water fairly quickly using this method. The plus side is that the towing ship isn't even in the water, and the sled is towed far behind the helo, keeping it out of the danger zone.

Aren't European navies decreasing in size (I think the Dutch no longer have one)?

Yes, as is the USA's too, that's part of the irony…..

A bit of an exaggeration, but Somali pirates could probably wreak havoc in European waters for awhile, if they had proper cloudcover to keep the jets and helos at bay.

You all do realize we in North America import most of our oil from South America and Nigeria, rather than than through the Straits of Hormuz, right?

And never fully tapped ANSCO, right?

Just saying.

Eric

Gee why is it every time a conflict of nations arise we wargamers seem to be so giddy?

More gaming potential. Better data on equipment and manpower performance. Wargaming is not for the squeamish.
-Kle.

Actually we get the highest percentage of our oil from Canada. Since we are exporting gasoline right now, I suppose we could just stop exporting it.

As for Keystone, Nebraska has objected to the route through the Sandhills area of the state. So a new route has to be developed

link

If the pundits on TV are correct, the world gets about 33% of its oil from the region, and we in the USA get about 20% from there.

On the plus side, while our troops may be home from Iraq, I'll be a lot of heavy armor is still in the region, so will be ready, if called upon.

A new route has already been proposed in the USA, and it appears agreed to by many in the region.

Here's where we get the oil from.

link

Saudi Arabia has said it will make up any shortfall if the straits are closed. Closing the straits also cuts off Iranian oil since they ship most of it thru the straits. Wonder what China would do if Iran closed the straits as they are a major importer of Iranian oil.

I imagine they mean cutting off the straits to others, and not themselves, or China.

Cutting off the Straits to others and not China will also make China very mad, because that just made China party to an act of war against the rest of the world.

If I was Iran, I would *not* want the Dragon angry. What's that line? "Do not meddle in the affairs of Dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup."

Well, given all the money we owe them, I'm guessin' we wouldn't really press the issue, and be willing to overlook that "minor" detail.

If you mine the straits, which is the only way to really close it, you close it to everyone. The narrowest part is only 21 miles wide. All it would take would be one tanker hitting a mine and insurance costs for operating in the Gulf would skyrocket.

They are using dirigibles?

Worse, politicians!

Maybe we can make a deal with the Greek government: We'll payoff your debt in return for the Greek navy clearing the Straits of Persian trash…just like the old days.

Yeah?

Maybe we can make a deal with the Greek government: We'll payoff your debt in return for the Greek navy clearing the Straits of Persian trash…just like the old days.

LOL

The problem with the XL pipeline is that its not for American consumption, its designed to pipe its to the Gulf for export. Oil is fungible, any oil shock prices will go up world wide, we may have a tap in the US, but they (the owners of the oil) will sell it to the highest bidder.

@Windward *bows*

Even the Saudis have privately given us the go ahead to 'do' Ahmadinijad (sp?). The Iranians were one of the first to take it to the streets and were the most brutally repressed. The footage of that poor teenage Iranian girl being killed by government snipers was heartbreaking and sickening.

My guess is that the US and its allies are currently conducting an extensive covert war.

Sickening as it was, it's happening dozens of times a day in Syria and no one seems to care…

True that Bangorstu. It's a travesty. There was even a story that Iranian had 'lent' some of their snipers to Assad for crowd control.

Given relations between the governments, more than likely. I've heard (but can't know for sure) that Hezbollah are helping out as well.

Bangorstu is spot on. It is going on every day and the west looks the other way.
VR
James Mattes

The problem with Syria is there seems to be no armed resistance to support. We can tell them to stop all we want but we aren't about to commit troops. Maybe the Europeans should put forces on the ground. Use Turkey as your jumpoff point.

I'd like to see No-Fly and No-Armored Vehicle Zones imposed from the air by the US and NATO, since that way, at least those on the ground would have some sort of a fighting chance to overthrow Assad and his cronies.

Iran has warned the USN to stay out of the Arabian Gulf, or else (same one as the Persian Gulf, but they hate when you call it by its other name).

I doubt they will back up their threats, but if they do, it probably won't end well for them.

How many Syrians are equal in valueto one pomeranian grenadier?