"WWIII: Germany vs US, Brits, etc." Topic

Recently I read the book Kriegspiel by Todd Stone. It describes a very limited fight between US and German forces in a modern European setting.

And I'm currently working on a near future project with Brits, Americans, and Germans vs Russian-backed regulars for a limited war in eastern Europe.

All that got me to thinking, what would a modern war look like with Germans vs Brits and Americans? Maybe even add in the Russians. Think WWII refought in (nearish+ to distant) future with modern figures.

- How far into the future would it be? In other words, how much time do you think must pass before such a conflict even becomes thinkable?

- What might the circumstances be to set off this conflict? What are its pre-conditions and its drivers?

Or with the Euro, NATO, and other international linkages is this completely impossible anytime in the near future? (25 years? 50 years? 100 years?)

Of course, anything is possible if highly improbable. I think that with time societies tend to forget the lessons of the past and new pressures arise to drive future generations to make the same mistakes their ancestors made.

What scenario background would you write to justify using your modern German figures in a battle against their old WWII enemies? :-)

NOTE: Cross-posted to WWII boards since we WWII gamers might have insights into potential historical drivers for such a conflict.

Unless NATO falls apart it ain't going to happen. If the USA and the UK embarked on another war in Europe they wouldn't only be fighting the Germans. A more likely scenario would be the USA taking on Europe with the UK either fulfilling it's NATO role or sitting it out.

What would trigger such an event? A massive falling out over US support for (how to avoid the DH?)…a non-Muslim Middle Eastern country in the wake of that country's latest faux-pas? Bearing in mind that Turkey is a member of NATO, as is most of the old Soviet bloc.

I really detest being called a "Brit" BTW. If you can type "German" and "American", please extend us the same courtesy. It's "British"

The best place to fight a modern war with such troops would be colonists with modern warfare technology. The colonists could be claimed to have modern army surplus.

You could then give it a time frame of a 100 years.

OT- In person, I don't mind being called a 'Brit' except by the Irish.

I can't really see any situation where we would go to war. For one thing, following the last World War, the US and other allies did a very good job of taking the "German" out of the Germans. The only time you even see true national pride outof them anymore is during the FIFA World Cup. I'm not sure the majority of the civilian population would even support a war.

Actually, it could happen easily with conflicts over monetary and economic policy. The European countries are not happy at all with the USA and our current spending problems. European countries, stupidly I might add, could ask the USA military to leave their countries as "punishment" (who would really be punished here… :) ).

Another campaign blog had a story where the British asked the USA to abandon their bases, etc. and when they didn't they blockaded them. It wouldn't take too much misunderstanding at this point to make it a hot war.

Alliances only last as long as the parties need them to. :)

A more likely scenario would be the USA taking on Europe with the UK either fulfilling it's NATO role or sitting it out.

Question is, what would or even could that NATO role be? Is the UK under any less of an obligation to assist the Continental European NATO members than it is to the USA from the point of view of the treaty? I suppose it would all depend on which side initiated hostilities.

As for Brit, afaiac it's a useful shorthand (and I am one myself).

I really detest being called a "Brit" BTW. If you can type "German" and "American", please extend us the same courtesy. It's "British"

A colleague of mine from England calls himself a "Brit" all of the time. I was ignorant that it could be an issue for some. My sincerest apologies for that.

Back on topic, like Neal I was thinking it could be economics that drive a wedge through NATO. Already there is some resentment in Germany over having to "bail out" other Euro nations. And our own DoD has developed scenarios in which climate change and resource shortages (eg water) drive conflict throughout South and Central America which spill into North America.

Put enough pressure on any group of people and they start looking out for their own first. In Europe a combination of severe economic turmoil, climate change-induced food and water disruptions, and energy shortages might drive the continent into chaos at the very least and perhaps open conflict.

And let's remember NATO was formed to counter Russia. Let's say a future Russia is weakened for various reasons and no longer seen as a serious conventional threat. Throughout history we've seen the removal of external threats cause societies to turn inward with the result being internal strife. In this case it would be the EU, Euro countries, and NATO countries squabbling among themselves.

So let's imagine an economically strong Germany beset with demands for support from weaker Euro nations and plagued by her own resource challenges. In chaos there is opportunity! (At least for interesting wargame scenarios!) :-)

"I really detest being called a "Brit" BTW."

Maybe you want to advise your compatriots who keep referring to us as "Septics"…

Anyhow, as far as your script, suspending one's sense of disbelief for the sake of discussion, a likely catalyst would be energy policy: Russia turns off the gas flow to Western Europe, due to climate change it's a murderous winter, Germans attempt to seize the pipeline switches in Kalingrad, and it escalates from there.

Russia turns off the gas flow to Western Europe, due to climate change it's a murderous winter, Germans attempt to seize the pipeline switches in Kalingrad, and it escalates from there.

Oooh, good one! We've already seen that play out sans German attack in recent years. Even now there are some conflicts within former Soviet bloc countries over pipeline fees. It could even be a third party that blocks access in a dispute with Russia.

EDIT:

Some interesting background material!

link

Oh dear

<<<Maybe you want to advise your compatriots who keep referring to us as "Septics"…>>>

I have as much control over my compatriots using derogatory terms as you do over yours. Good manners should be universal however, and I thank Wartopia for his apology.

<<<Anyhow, as far as your script>>>

It is not my "script", it is Wartopia's. I merely posted a counter argument. This thread has all the appearances of devolving into an anti USA/UK/European rant, so I'm bowing out for now.

"Once all the German were warlike and mean, but that couldn't happen again"

"We taught them a lesson in 1918 and they've hardly
bothered us since then".

I think NATO vs Russia more likely.

I think NATO vs Russia more likely

Definitely!

For my current 20mm moderns project I've setup a conventional European war in a fictional eastern European country.

This former Soviet-bloc state becomes a democracy and grants basing rights to US ABMs with the goal being NATO membership. Russia backs a separatist group plunging the country into a civil war with significant conventional forces on both sides (Soviet equipment) and NATO troops caught up in the fighting.

So you get a near future conflict with opportunities for Brads, Marders, and Warrios vs BMPs (and even BMP vs BMP).

This is an attempt to justify German Marders vs US Brads and British Warriors! :-)

I don't mind Brit (though the phrase 'British English' is wrong and silly). I don't even mind limey- just another acknowledgement about who has the best navy Can I use 'Shermans'? The same root as "Septic" but without the poo analogy.

Well, I am Canadian and I do not mind being called a CANUCK.

For you Americans is "Yank" OK (Southern Gentlemen excluded of course)?

For the British, is "Limey" considered un-acceptable?

I like to know my left and right of arcs here, so I do not offend. I often use expression like these both in forums and face to face conversations. Does anyone wish to retreat to lounge and hash this one out?

I like the Karlingrad scenario. It is pausible, I once talked with a German Lt-Commander whose family once owned estates from the area around Karlingrad, there is alot ill feeling about the German government giving up claims in the Russian controlled area of East Prussia.

In any scrap between the Americans and the Germans, what on earth makes you think the British would side with America?

I can go no further without straying into Blue Fez territory – except to say we haven't exactly been feeling the love for quite a few years now.

You'd have to push the boat out, plot wise. There's a great deal of effort gone into ensuring old European faultlines don't open again.

Anyhow, that said, didn't Tom Clancy do a book on this idea a few years back? I've not read it, well not read him at all, but seem to recall some blurb on the jacket about a new resurgence of German nationalism and a drive to remove foreign troops from its soil following the collapse of the WarPac threat?

The 'gas war' sounds a reasonably feasible one actually, given all the recent arguments between Russia/Ukraine/Belarus about paying the bills. Plenty of predictions about future wars being fought over food & water so fuel seems a legit one. Course we were all supposed to have personal jetpacks by now, so predictions are worth what you pay for them…Conflict over EU barriers to US trade was another one being touted about ten year back I seem to recall, which also worked for round two in the Pacific (the Coming War with Japan or some such title being a US best seller for a spell I think).

You really need some massive fracture in the EU to see the French and Germans going opposite ways, and you probably need to factor the French into the plot, they wouldn't be sat waiting to see who won. You can always argue for Russia imploding into civil war and becoming factionalised, that's another one that was predicted as imminent about twenty years ago. But that would tend to unite Europe behind NATO if there was a real danger of the chaos spreading westwards.

You have to go some way to think of reasons for Germany trashing its relations with its neighbours and opting to bomb them rather than sell them BMWs, which has been a nice little earner for a long time now. Some form of entente between an extremist Russian faction with designs on central eastern Europe, and a German govt willing to break it ties with western Europe and the US might work, but you need to eat lots of cheese before bedtime to establish the details…

PS – I don't mind being called a Brit, I've been called worse, and will accept it until devolution deems it a moot point and I'm just English (even if a series of great-uncles were RWFs!)

Limey is acceptable, like Pom or Pommie, as it is not a term coined by people trying to blow the British up in Northern Ireland. That is why to some it is unacceptable.

Septic or seppoe has nothing to do with bodily functions, it is ryhming slang. What would prefer? I know Southern USA gentlemen who take greater offence at being called Yanks or Yankees.

Harold Coyle wrote a book 15+ years ago, "The Ten Thousand". Not a bad read. It's about the rise of German nationalism and the US fumbling an operation in Yugoslavia to secure nuclear weapons after the wall came down. The German gov't get's angered (or thats the excuse they use) about not being involved in missions staged from German soil and demand the Americans leave immediately and abandon all of their equipment. The story is about the American's fight to get to the coast or a border….can't remember. It's been awhile.

Ed G.

The term Brit may have been misappropriated by the IRA but it certainly wasn't coined by them; it's far older than that.

Given demographics of continental Europe, it better happen now or wait for about 100 years if it's Germany versus the US of A

I think that German-Russian is much more likely – the Russians are done with decline and are stretching their muscles again, albeit in their own neighbourhood – especially as the Russians have shown willingness to play the energy card and a renewed interest in using all those tanks and helicopters

You have to go some way to think of reasons for Germany trashing its relations with its neighbours and opting to bomb them rather than sell them BMWs, which has been a nice little earner for a long time now. Some form of entente between an extremist Russian faction with designs on central eastern Europe, and a German govt willing to break it ties with western Europe and the US might work, but you need to eat lots of cheese before bedtime to establish the details…

Good point. Maybe combine that concept with the Gas War concept and a related energy concept.

Iran has been pushing towards an oil bourse which they hope will eventually trade crude oil in non-US currencies (eg the Euro). While it's currently trading petro-derivatives trading crude in Euros has been a major concern for the US and might be the spark for a conflict with the US. In fact, the bourse first went live the Iranians accused the US of interfering with their internet connection! :-)

A resurgent Russia taking on former satellites (e.g. Ukraine, Belorus) now members of Nato seems more plausible than some scenarios -- especially if one posits bad economic times in the west causing defense cutbacks that make the Russians think they can get away with it.

A second Korean War seems more likely than a WW3.

Belarus and Ukraine show no signs of wanting to join NATO, and Georgia won't be allowed to join because frankly if isn't worth defending.

If you want a Russia v NATO flashpoint, look to the Baltics. Their treatment of ethnic Russians hasn't always been entirely fair, and Moscow occasionally uses it as a cause celebre.

But Korea is, as donlowry says, much more likely.

Coyle's The Ten Thousand is set in a resurgent militaristic unified Germany shortly after the end of the Cold War and covers a fighting withdrawal by a US Corp of 2+ Divisions against several Bundswehr Divisions. Some Div commanders consider their orders illegal and sit it out providing a decent duex eh machina as to why the US isn't overrun by superior forces. The usual Coyle techno thriller with most of his usual characters showing up. The flash point early in the book is a joint US/Russian raid to seize Nukes from the new Ukrainian Government not an incursion into the FYR.

link

Another book that could provide a background to this is Larry Bond's (Clancy's writing partner in Red Storm Rising) Cauldron. France with a reluctant Germany begin to dominate Europe economically and militarily. When Hungary and Poland resist they're invaded by the Franco German EuroCorp. The US and Britain side with Hungary and Poland and the Russians pull a 1939 again and invade Poland while most of their army is occupied on their western border. Again not a bad techno thriller.

link

I think Germany vrs. Ukraine would be a more interesting story. Approximately equal size miltaries currently. And Poland might ally with either side. Plenty of storylines u could come up with for why, again assuming that Nato is defunct or inept or otherwise concerned.

Re "we haven't been feeling the love for quite a few years now"

The Scots might say the same.

Or, step it back 25 years.

West and East Germany launch a re-unification drive without the blessings of Nato and the Warsaw Pact. Two W. German Panzer plus a PZ. Gren. Division, or two, cross the border and are welcomed by E. German units.

Soviet Forces Germany surrounded, in their positions, and assailed by both NATO and WARPAC armament, or involved in numberous meeting engagements.

Frantic movement and mobilization of Soviet A and B divisions in Poland, the Baltics, Hungary, Ukraine and Russia proper.

NATO limited to the units on hand.

Does Nato side with the Germans? Only attempt to block aggressive WARPAC units? Stand down? Attempt to block German resupply?

Uesugi Kenshin – certain Scots may say the same, but since the vast majority of them vote for Unionist parties, and Scotland does well out of the Union, I'd say such voices are the minority.

Can't think of a reason for a German/Ukraine confrontation if only for a lack of a common border.

A civil war in Ukraine between those who look to Moscow and those who look to the EU might be feasible.

But really, sorry to disappoint, but Europe looks fairly peaceful right now.

"But really, sorry to disappoint, but Europe looks fairly peaceful right now."

I don't think Wartopia was looking for a critical analysis of current European relations and the possibilities of an outbreak of war. I believe he was looking for hypothetical justifications to game such a war Stu. Your analysis doesnt "disappoint" so much as it shows a lack of imagination.

"Ukraine show no signs of wanting to join NATO"

You need to recheck your facts. Many in Ukraine would love the potential added security and economic benefits of joining Nato.

"In any scrap between the Americans and the Germans, what on earth makes you think the British would side with America?"

What makes you think we'd have you, ya Limey Brits!
;-)

"We need a What If Board."

True dat.

UK&US v Germany – not going to happen in any foreseeable future, but just for laughs…..

10-20 years in the future ~~~~wobbly lines~~~~

The UK has joined the euro and the EU has become a super-state, taking all the legislative powers of the national governments. Suddenly crazy eurocrats do something shamefully unthinkable like outlawing flavoured crisps, reclassifying the British sausage as a fat-filled-offal tube, raising the duty on tea or, horror of horrors, forcing us to drink half-litres instead of pints.

Naturally Britain rebels, and fights a war of seccession with the support of all right-thinking nations that prefer Imperial measurements and/or cricket, ie USA and the Commonwealth, even the Irish might join if the pint of Guinness is under threat.

If it was just the Germans, well,

we have got
the Bomb and they do not

Unfortunately there's the French

After the climactic battle on the Field of Waterloo, the Belgians will be blamed

Doktor Evil of course! ;-)

Uesygi- check YOUR facts. Many in Ukraine speak Russian and want nothing to do with NATO or EU. The ones you speak of are for the most part now in Russia- as gastarbaiters. Any conflict between NATO and Russia- think MUSHROOMS.

Didn't read through all the messages, but I've been considering a modern replay of the opening stages of WWII – Germany vs. Poland or France. Thought it would be rather fun with modern equipment and could create a plausible enough background for it.

I think more likely scenarios in the near term are related to the financial crises, and rioters getting out of hand and overthrowing their government.

That goes bad quickly, there is no stable government in charge, or what government there is over-reacts and their military or security troops create a massacre. Roving bands of refugees attempt to cross a border to escape, or to steal to keep food on the table, or get weapons to help consolidate power with local warlords.

Other nations try to intervene to help calm the situation, and the current government(s) resent that.

Firing occurs, and some don't like others shooting at their citizens, or military/security personnel.

Things then go downhill from there, as the infrastructure crumbles, and countries try to keep refugees out, to protect their borders and way of life.

Obvious flashpoints appear to be the anarchists torching cars in France, Greece's economic meltdown, etc.

Germany can stand it no more, and decides to attack all nations producing inferior beer, and/or bratwurst, since there are standards to be kept.

OK here's a warped scenario…

Instead of assuming Germany somehow regresses and begins to display expansionist tendancies, how about a near future Germany taking the lead in peacekeeping/humanitarian aid following open conflict between Russia and one of its western neighbours. Assume this had lead to a weakened central govt from Moscow so no meaningful response to a German led NATO mission to pick up the pieces of the conflict.

As we've seen, once you get sucked into a war for one reason, you can end up staying in it for another. Those gas supplies mentioned above are pretty damn important, there's a danger of a large population shift from east to west to escape the after effects of the 'whatever' conflict, and their first likely port of call will be Germany's eastern border.

NATO might decide once the initial crisis is passed to get the bleep out of Dodge before they end up stuck there; fine for the UK, fine for the US, even Canada depending on who you might want to say went in to help. They have varying degrees of physical separation between their borders and the possible waves of refugees who might be wanting to get out of Dodge themselves. A near future Germany might see things differently and decide to stick around to control the situation.

As we've also seen, peacekeepers/liberators one day can be occupying forces another, especially if the political situation isn't resolved and seemingly proxy leaders are installed. There are plenty of weapons doing the rounds and with lots of blokes unemployed and increasingly angry about life in general, at some point things could turn bloody.

Two or three years in to a nasty counter insurgency campaign against possibly an array of armed groups, that early well intentioned intervention is starting to look like an occupation to much of the world, particularly if natural resources start to be taken into 'protective states' due to terrorist attacks against pipelines pumping gas and oil westwards.

Throw in a political or economic crisis that unbalances western Europe, and you may see one of those old fault lines opening up again. Instead of a Franco-German view on Europe, you have an Anglo-Franco view on one side, and a previously (say ten years ago) unthinkable Neo Russo-German one on the other. A very long and costly involvement in the east could see a near future Germany decide, in combination with other factors, that that is where its influence is best exercised.

You'd still need some major event to turn it into a shooting war between former NATO allies, when western interests were threatened. That doesn't have to be on the Franco-German border of course, but I'm out of cheese and can't think of what might light the fuse…

"gastarbaiters' ? :-O

"At the April 2008 summit in Bucharest, Romania, NATO agreed to the accession of Croatia and Albania and invited them to join. Both countries joined NATO in April 2009. Ukraine and Georgia were also told that they will eventually become members."

With Georgia, it will not happen until they agree to give up all territorial rights to Azkhabia and S. Ossetia. With Ukraine, I think its a certainty…regardless of what a Russian minority population therein wants.

How about this scenario,europe explodes into fifa world cup envy bloodbath…the dutch try to steal it via an invasion of France.A hard pressed Spain appeals to Germany with hat in hand…Italy,upset at the early route attacks the former Yugoslav states for the fun of it.To make things worse ,those stubborn poles who never qualified take crusader oaths and assault the turks just for the fun of it.

In the original Twilight:2000 fluff, WWIII starts in europe when the East Germans tired of getting drawn into the war between the Soviets and American/Canadian backed Chinese secretly open talks with West Germany about reunification. The East Germans, after literally losing a whole division in China decides to pull their troops from the invasion force and offers the Soviets that they'd back up garrisons in East Germany to free up Soviet forces stationed there. Afterwards, West Germany launches airstrikes on the remaining Soviet garrison bases there while East Germany stages a whole rebellion kicking out the Soviets. They announce a newly reunified Germany which is immediately recognized the the US, Canada, and Great Britain, and send support to bolster Germany against a Soviet invasion. But France, Greece and a number of other NATO countries refuse to recognize it and do not want to be drawn into the conflict and withdraw from NATO. This results in a fragmented NATO and local rivalries stir up as the war heats up in europe resulting in some countries trading sides in the chaos. Yugoslavia, Hungary and Romania side with NATO while Greece and Italy side with the Warsaw Pact while France sits out of it and closes their borders when the nukes start flying.

In the 2nd Edition Twilight 2000, written in the early 90s, ethnic unrest is shaking up europe. Things really start to fall apart when Germany mounts an invasion of Poland after widespread persecution of ethnic Germans in Poland spills over into Germany.

In the Fleet Action 2: Turning Point fluff, the United States decides to militarize the International Space Station (a fully developed and very large station by then)after a terrorist bomb goes off damaging the station. A number of countries are upset over being suspected in aiding the terrorist getting access. The US closes off parts of it's station and puts Marines on board as security. Cooperation amongst the original partners runs an all time low as loyalties are questioned and fingers are pointed.

The actions on the station alarm some radical elements in some european countries and Europe is swept up in an anti-American fervor. NATO is dissolved in favor of a more powerful European Union alliance lead by France. Claims the that US is planning on taking over the station and militarizing space are made. Germany calls for the ouster of American forces from it's soil. However the US refuses to simply hand over it's bases and starts dismantelling them. The Germans are furious and send their military to take the bases by force. This results in some live fire as German tanks storm the American bases. The Americans pullout of Europe and a great rift between widens. France (and I think Russia) widens it's influence over the EU, Great Britain finds it's getting the short end of the stick.

An asteroid crashes in the Iraq, it's shockwaves destroy most of the oil infrastructure throughout the Middle East. Oil prices skyrocket and the EU decides to take control of all of the North Atlantic Oil Fields. Great Britain protests and announces it will pull out of the EU. An EU naval fleet is sent to the North Atlantic to secure it. The EU fleet is met by a combined British, American and Canadian fleet. The US, UK and Canada announce the Alliance of North Atlantic Nations.

Although things don't turn into a hot shooting war, it goes on that these two superpowers begin taking in other countries into their alliances and eventually expanding into space. Eventually conflicts within our solar system erupt between the two superpowers.

In the fluff for 2300 AD, the sequel to Twilight: 2000. France becomes the dominant superpower with the US and Manchuria close behind.

The US has pulled all of it's remaining troops out of Europe to put down a civil war and a Soviet/Mexican invasion. France, not being involved with WWIII, aggressively closes it's borders to refugees, bandits and all other outsiders. While the worlds powers recover from 3 nuclear exchanges and multiple civil wars, France emerges from it's borders and annexes Belgium and then sends peacekeepers to occupy Germany. The Soviet Union is no more and China is in ruins.

France dominates Europe for the next century, and the Germans resent still being occupied. Eventually the Germans revolt in a quick war between France and Germany with the Germans winning their freedom and becoming a soverign nation again. By the late 23rd century France and Germany are allies but strong rivals. While most of France's allies use French made or designed products, Germany insists on it's own designs.

The United States recovers from the third world war trailing behind France's gains. It forms a very strong tie with Austrailia and Japan but has a very hostile relationship with Mexico.

Manchuria, having the most industry still standing in asia, rises from the ashes of a Soviet invasion and nuclear war and takes over the rest of what was China and dominates asia. Manchuria forms strong ties with Canada.

I read somewhere that the results of this fluff was based on a game that the guys at Game Designers Workshop made to similate what would happen after the events they created in Twilight 2000.

If you're looking for a WWII replay with some tether of truth to it… well… there isn't much to grab on to.

However you might get some satisfaction from maybe a NATO vs. Russian (or is it Neo-Soviet now?) clash over the Ukraine or Poland. Georgia could erupt again which could be a small scale fight.

These two scenarios are probably the most likely ones but I would doubt that they would ever happen. But then again, most sensible people said in the '30s that there would not be another world war.

Vcarter tossed out this classic quote:

"Once all the German were warlike and mean, but that couldn't happen again. We taught them a lesson in 1918 and they've hardly bothered us since then"

That was said during either the '20s or '30s. So never say never!

"NATO vs. Russian (or is it Neo-Soviet now?) clash over the Ukraine or Poland.'

Pretty much what Im doing in 15mm right now. Except not Nato. Ukraine & Poland V. Russia and Belo Rus.

Didn't read through all the messages, but I've been considering a modern replay of the opening stages of WWII – Germany vs. Poland or France. Thought it would be rather fun with modern equipment and could create a plausible enough background for it.

That's the gist of it. I have friends who are die hard 20mm WWII gamers. Our usual fare is British or Americans or Russians vs Germans. We also have some Cold Warriors in our group (eg folks who participated in REFORGER). So how might one provide a plausible background to refight WWII using modern wargame figures and rules? This is really just a wargame project so one shouldn't take it seriously! :-)

Instead of assuming Germany somehow regresses and begins to display expansionist tendancies, how about a near future Germany taking the lead in peacekeeping/humanitarian aid following open conflict between Russia and one of its western neighbours. Assume this had lead to a weakened central govt from Moscow so no meaningful response to a German led NATO mission to pick up the pieces of the conflict.

This shows promise. If you have a strong Germany and surrounding neighbors in economic chaos perhaps German intervention across their borders starts as stabilization efforts and flows into occupations which are ultimately resisted by locals and then actively opposed by other nations.

And as someone else has pointed out eastern Europe might have neat borders drawn on maps but that's not always the reality on the ground. We have a very good friend who grew up in Stuttgart, his father fought in the German army in WWII, his family speaks German and are German citizens, but their last name is clearly Polish in origin.

My wife's ancestors came to America in the late 17th century, were from Alsace Lorraine, spoke French, considered themselves to be French, but their last name is clearly German.

So add emotional ethnic tensions to any of our egg-headed discussions about economics and energy resources and maybe such a war is not as unthinkable as one might assume.

If so many people can get worked up over a world cup soccer match just imagine how they might feel and act when the stakes are even higher! :-) Heck, even the octopus which predicted the world cup has received death threats!!! :-D

The French, having grown weary of being attacked by Germany repeatedly, launch a pre-emptive strike. Things go downhill from there.

Iran attacks Israel, prompting military aid, and retaliation against them by the USA and what is left of the IDF.

The EU, Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil, Turkey, and China side with Iran.

The UK and Australia side with the USA.

Now thats a fight! How about the Irish…can we have the Irish too?!

Potential flash points, the Balkans for a start, Russian backed Serbia decides it is now powerful enough to get Kosovo back, NATO is slow responding and so the tensions escalate. Iran finally launches its attack on Israel, Syria and Egypy see a chance to join in, and Iraq revolts against the US forces still there.

The US now has a war on 2 fronts, NATO is commited to the europe fight and Afganistan deployments.

Germany in exchange for its old East Prussia estates, stays out of Russias decision to annex Belarus. Once this becomes public Germany expelled from Nato, and makes a grab for the German speaking parts of Poland.

The whole thing could easily domino from there.

Uesugi, I suggest you get more information on Ukraine and their "willingness" to join NATO.

First of all, the government/president that wanted be closer to NATO are both gone. Yushenko got less than 10% at the latest elections if that rings a bell to you. "Russian-speaking minority" is in fact the majority, 'cause even hardest westerners in Lviv still speak Russian. All eastern part of Ukraine and Crimea (and it is where most of their heavy industry is) would never support joining NATO. When Ukraine was hit hard with the crisis and had no money to pay for gas, they got little support from EC. Several polls are showing that less than 30% of Ukrainians want to be in NATO (while more than 50% would like to join EC)
Frankly, I see Albania in NATO as a pure political decision as they don't comply to many standards that are expected from NATO country.

FreddBloggs, Russia will never go to war for Serbia again. They're just not worth it. Our elite is very concerned with business, and antagonizing the whole Europe for no real reason or benefit is not on their "to do" list.

Indeed, Europe now has so many mechanisms to ensure things don't get out of hand that any kind of major conflict seems unthinkable… though that may well be my lack of imagination….

The one thing that might possibly do it is the thing that usually does it – economic hardship. If the Euro implodes in a particularly spectacular fashion, leading to mass unemployment etc then there may be some unrest.

But even then state-on-state violence seems unlikely except in the Caucausus.

How about Germany decides it wants its pre-WW2 frontier with Poland?

Gas war is rather more likely or course.

Umm, how about Germany is required to bail out the profligate public spending by certain irresponsible Mediteranean countries and decides it is time to raise to flag over the Acropolis once more, just for old times sake and to preserve its investments….

Britain naturally leaps to the defence of Greece in the tradition of Byron, Churchill et all.

Much throwing of towels over pool loungers ensues.

Now. I could tell you a good story about pool loungers and beach towels and our German pals. But I won't, in the interests of international amity.