"Japan first, then Germany. What if?????" Topic

Covert Walrus – don't you mean 1st September for Seelowe? And there is a lot of debate as to whether that would have succeeded or simply killed a lot of German soldiers & sailors. There are several threads on this board.

As to the Middle East – Iran was pre-emptively occupied by the British & Russians; ( link Wikipedia summary) there was a pro-Axis revolt in Iraq in 1941, defeated by the British ( link ) The UK spent a lot of effort keeping Turkey neutral (& vaguely pro-allied, before actually declaring war on Germany ( link ). The Vichy French, although allowing the Germans to stage aircraft sent to help Rasheed Ali in Iraq probably wouldn't have been that keen to allow German land forces to enter (after all, that was against the terms of the Armistice). Anyway, once aware of the potential the British rapidly removed that possiblity from the equation. ( link , link )

Note that these events had all happened well before the US had even entered the war. The question therefore should be – was US support (material rather than troops) vital to the British beating Rommel & the DAK in North Africa? And would a 'Japan First policy have made any difference to that?

Huw, that was the one date that was planned, but Seelowe ( Older transliteration, sorry ) could have been run in a limited version by the May date. As my reference states, the whole of Southern England was cut off by the London attacks for communications and rail transport, so the number of reserves available there would have been limited. A foothold might possibly have been established for at least a battalion perhaps for as long a sa week or tow without much mor ethan local English opposition mostly from Territorial style forces. An interesting idea, I have always thought.

Thanks for the Iraq references – Sounds like the British and Russians did what the US planned for Brazil if the Pro-Nazi army there had staged a coup ( Look up 'Plan Rubber', sorry no links, I read it hard copy in Miniatures Wargames magazine sometime ago . . . ). And yes, all that did occur without US operations, which was kinda my point earlier about the Desert war against Rommel. It only relates slightly to the European theatre question, except for Oil supplies perhaps.

Hang on, that date doesn't make any sense. Are you sure you're not thinking of Kenneth Macksey's alternative scenario for Seelowe, starting in July 1940? What you're suggesting sounds more like a raid, along the lines of some of the early Commando operations into Norway or the Bruneval raid.

On May 1st the Germans were still heavily engaged in Norway or in planning & preparation for Case Yellow, which kicked off only 10 days later. The Fallschirmjager were still rebuilding for their next campaign. The Kriegsmarine was in disarray following it's losses in Norway, having roughly 1 heavy cruiser & a few destroyers only available at that date. The invasion barges hadn't been collected together or modified so there was very little transport available. The Frnech Navy was still intact. The Channel coast was in Allied or neutral hands so any invasion force is going to have to cross the North Sea, without much in the way of air cover, against an alert Royal Navy.

There were no major air attacks on Britain during that period (or on France either). Somewhere I've got a list of all major German raids against the rail network & there was nothing of the sort happening in April-May 1940.

The Germans were still operating from air bases in Germany, so no short (or long) range fighter cover was available. There had been no attrition of the RAF (or of the French AF either, for that matter). The Germans would have no ability to use their dive bombers either, as these also had only a short range (excepting the handful of the Ju87R variant).

Not all the BEF had been shipped to France by that stage either. Even in the darkest days of June-July there were still organised forces available in the UK (eg a brigade of Australians, & the 1st Canadian Division) so any limited local landing could have been dealt with by what was available.