"Georgia and Russia" Topic

Links:

Russian "suggestion" that Saakashvili step down:

link

Ceasefire story via CNN:

link

Well, the next few days will be interesting in terms of the finalized deal, and perhaps getting further details of what happened on the ground the last few days. I am just thankful that this did not spiral…..

I am a minority… but at this point I prefer an escalation and some western show of force… I can said "thankfully" we have only lost a democratic nation to a military oligarchy…

we have taken a bad road… this is only part one… I know that this is Blue Fez but I had to say it.

And another thing… Cessationof ostility came from MEdvedev… not from Putin.

Agreed there – when it looked like the Russians might be driving into Georgia I was seriously worried. As it is the consequences aren't going to be pretty, but at least it stopped short of a total meltdown this time….

Thanks for the updates fellas (you especially, Cold Warrior) – let's hope we don't have anything similar to talk about any time soon….

What do you guys see as the biggest threat to a working cease-fire and peace?
That Saakashvili refuses to step down/the Georgians refuse to give him up?
That other groups in and around Georgia take the opportunity to put the boot in while the Georgian army is on the floor?
That Russia makes demands for control over territory that is too important to the West to give up; pipelines etc?

Arrigo – I'm not going to respond fully to your post because we've managed to get this far without the thread being nuked, and I'd rather leave it that way. With that said, what "Western show of force" would be plausible? Turkey's the only NATO country which even has access to the theatre, and their involvement was never going to be more than diplomatic calls for moderation.

Thomas – I think it'll hold; my take is that Russia's done what it wanted to militarily, and can probably just ignore Saakashvili until his government self-destructs, whether that's immediate or takes a while. The real question mark is what sort of government Georgia gets next….

From the perspective of Putin and Medvedev Russia has gained prestige, and engaged in a tit for tat over the west recognizing Kosovo's independence. That, I believe, is precisely what they wanted, to flex their muscles and send a message to the west after years of essentially being ignored on a number of geopolitical issues. Not saying I agree with the sentiment, but I have quite a few friends in Russia, and they have been relaying these concerns to me for a few years now, due to the Kosovo situation, NATO expansion, and the missile shield in Poland & the Czech Republic.

Dom,

if we wanted to send a message depstaching a SAG to the black sea and Staging some fighter squadrons in Romania. Even the indirect move to send AMC trasnports to Georgia ha worried the russians.

If we would have wanted (or still want) to flemxmore muscle put two or three light battlaions on tbilisi with strict ROE. The problem with a collpase of democratic georgia would be such instability that:

1) will transform the region in another quagmire

2) force the russian to move even farther

Putin is many thing but not an idiot… he must have taken into account that possibility of further destabilization. That worries me and that weight agaisnt the "cessation of operation plus attached conditions" delivered by Medvedev… Also In ksosovo NAT never asked or pushed all the way to Milosevich removal… even if the russians conceded it was a "suspicuiously elected leader" (103% of votes is a weird thing…

But keeping on the military option I think the situaiton on the ground is still unclear… until now we have only sybilline announcements from one russian political authority then modified by another and so on… I think we can't still say it has ended… just that.

Bailing on this discussion – line's been crossed….

I agree. We shouldn't get into the politics or 'what next for NATO' conversations. Just the facts reporting.

Looks like this has largely run it's course. Thank you gentlemen for a sensible discussion, especially CW and Dom for the regular updates (and Turkish reporters!)

Dom,

My apologies if anything I wrote in my last post crossed the line in any way, was just providing a rationale as to why I believe the ceasefire will hold.

Geoff is right at any rate, now that the shooting war appears to be ending, we will now have the political fallout, which is unsuitable for this forum.

Thanks to everyone for participating!

Paul

Some interesting info in regards to forces involved in the conflict, including list of equipment, supplied to Georgia.It's in Russian, but it can be babelfished.

I'll just translate the part in regards to Navy battle:

Black Sea Fleet group had rocket cruiser "Moscow", guardian «Smetlivyi», 3 troops carriers and several smaller ships. 4 georgian rocket boats tried to approach "Moscow"
"Smetlivyi " first warned them with shots, and as the boats didn't turn, sank one of them. The rest 3 turned back. No data whther it was former Turkish, Greek, or Ukrainian ship.

Sorry, the link is here: link

Thank you Barin. I would say if anyone has details on equipment ONLY then it would be worth posting. On the whole we've managed to avoid the deeper reasoning. Let's try to keep it that way.

Paul – definitely nothing you said; thanks again for your posts.

Steering back on track, would anyone have oobs or to&es for the Georgian military forces or Russian 58th Army? Also, I had read that the one of the missile boats in the Georgian Navy was sunk by an offshore missile battery.

Honor,

I have an OOB for the North Caucasus MD, in Cyrillic, however it is mainly a symbols map. If you would like me to e-mail you a copy of that and other maps/docs I have pertaining to the conflict, go ahead and drop me a line at ravenwing71ATyahoo.com (my spam address), and I will reply from my primary e-mail (anyone else that is interested may drop me a line as well).

Regarding the sinking, Abkhazia claimed to have fired an SSM that sunk a Georgian corvette, but Russia claims they sunk it after it approached their task force in the Black Sea…..

Dom,

Good to hear, and thank you as well!

Paul

Just a question what is a Guardina ship? I am familiar with Large ASW ship (usually equiparable to destoyer, but it the first time see Guardian as ship classification for the russian navy).

Also some has a good air OOB?

"By MATTHEW LEE, Associated Press Writer 34 minutes ago

WASHINGTON – The State Department is recommending that all U.S. citizens to leave Georgia due to ongoing Russian bombing of civilian and military targets despite Russia's claim to have halted military operations there. "

then few minutes later seems that Medvedev aggred to the French plan calling for combined withdrawal to early august positions.

No other news.

Arrigo, the Smetlivyi is a Kashin-class vessel. The original Soviet classification was "storozhevoi korabl" (SKR) or literally "guard ship". A Western navy would be more likely to classify it as an air defense missile destroyer. In this ooperation, her role would have been to provide air defense for the Moskva.

The Smetlivyi (Resourceful) has a long service record. She was involved in the 1973 Mediterranean crisis. She was modernized in the 1990s, fitted with anti-shipping missiles. She is the only remaining unit of the twenty-ship Kashin and Kashin-Mod class: the majority have been decommissioned and scrapped (one sunk, one sold, one sold *and* sunk!).

Allen

Ok, thanks Allen,

I could have looked at my files… I have some Kashin in 1/6000 better to paint it :)

Arrigo

"One odd thing – when the Russians label some of their their troops in Ossetia "peace keepers" why do western reporters repeat this identification and thereby give it credence?"

Simply because they had been appointed by the UN ! They WERE a joint Russia-Georgia peacekeeping force. According to Moscow, it all began when georgian peacekeepers shot at russian peacekeepers of the same force. Not something gentlemen do, I must say.

Yes, the Russians were there with a UN mandate. However, I strongly suspect they were hardly impartial.

As noted above, seems that the Russians got their allied militias to cause so much trouble the Georgians responded – the Georgian PM has a short fuse and the Russians played on this.

Frankly, not smart.

Since the Ossetians are nearly all Russians citizens (since Moscow has been doling out passports like confetti) and the assault was bound to cause casualties amongst the peacekeepers, the Georgians neatly gave the Russians all the causi belli they required.

The Georgians fell for it hook line and sinker.

Let's not start with the analysis please – Blue Fez for that.

Oops, sorry. Forgot myself….

That's ok, it's an emotive area. Just trying to keep this thread to facts and equipment.

Why are small countries still using MBT's?
They are expensive, easy to target, prone to breaking down and require a large resupply organisation which is easy to disrupt.
Operationally tanks are best against infantry and rear areas in an offensive capability. Not against other tanks in a defensive role, especially against a far bigger opponent.

Because unlike infantry, they are relatively well protected against artillery fire. They also have better mobility than infantry, unless in APCs/IFVs, in which case the infantry has the same problems as tanks.
-Kle.

Oh, and thanks for the IDs of the old Russian tanks as Abkhaz/Ossetian. Didn't realize the Russians had armed them that heavily.
-kle.

On Swedish TV a reporter was just now broadcasting live from Tbilisi and there was a party in the streets. People there were celebrating the fact that they had sucessfully resisted a Russian invasion! I thought the Georgian forces had just been smashed and routed? Was there a withdrawal from Abkahzia and Ossetia of the main Gerogian military might? Did the Russians really stop because the Georgians could have stood up to them?
In short, how bad a beating did the Georgians take and how much did they cost the Russians while taking it?

russian losses… that is a thing we are really curious to know, not?

O.k. keeping this about gaming how do we rate the skill/morale levels of the various combatants? From what I can tell the Georgians did well against the Ossetians but pretty much collapsed againt the Russians. However in Abkahzia some Georgains pretty much fought to the death when surrounded by the Russians and Abkahzis.
How much difference did the U.S. trainning make to the Georgians? where the Iraq based troops the best Georgian troops? If they had come home sooner would they have made much difference to the out come?

Cheers Jon

Georgia has small standing western trained army and a larger reserve components… sadly enough we can't still pinpoint what units did X and what units did Y. Also some reports of the russian operations are uhm, less than stellar… now the problem is with rules we use to rate the combatants?

Well I only play AK47 for my modern fix which probably has little bearing on actual modern warfare. Having said that with some new political flow charts you could probably have some fun games of AK47 set in the Cacusus with fictional republics and such like.
In Ak-47 terms I suppose the Ossetians would be mostly militia level. The Georgians a mix of Regulars and militia to represent standing army and reservists. While the Russians would be regulars and proffesionals. The Abkahzis seem better than the Ossetains so maybe classing them as hardened milita would work.

Cheers Jon

Georgians only enjoyed initial success vs the Ossetians due to 12 time superiority in numbers! All or south ossetia is around 70000 population, their self defence force is pretty tiny- despite being equipped with old Soviet armor.
So far reports from BBC that Georgian army is totally smashed. Correspondent( Natalya Antelava) travelled from Tbilisi to Gori- highway was completely deserted and littered with abandoned Georgian armor- not a single Georgian soldier in sight. Gori is without any semblance of government- not even a single cop.Administrative parts of town are in ruins- on the Stalin's square the only thing standing is giant stature to Stalin.No Russians in sight. Locals are cursing Saakashvili. She travelled from Gori to Tzkhinvali- only upon entering into South Osetia she saw large numbers of Russian troops and all sorts of armor.
Russians are claiming to have large numbers of Georgian POWs and some mercenaries- their identity is being established.
Russian troops that entered into Georgia near Abkhazia were BTW Peacekeepers- blue bands on helmets. Their intent was only to prevent Georgian reinforcements to enter Northern Kodori Gorge- they succeded and left.There was no bloodshed. Trapped in Kodori Georgians were either killed or surrendered- fighting was done by Abkhazians, possibly with Russian help.
Sarkozy left for Tbilisi from Moscow with a list of 6 demands from Medvedev.
I will post if any more after 19:00 news.

OK, now the real question : who makes 15mm modern cossacks ?

My two cents…

Russian- Primarily I'd say they would be Trained Conscript (ie: know what they need to do but have not the skills to pull it off consistently) for bulk of troops. A few Regular units leavened by a handful of Elite sums up the overall (based on what I see, at least, as fragmented as everything is)

Georgian- Mix of Green and confident Regulars. In a stand up fight with equal numbers, the Georgians would have done well. Against the numbers thrown at them, I suspect they did a little better than one would expect.

Quantity is a quality all its own remember…

Had the Georgians suspected the Russians were coming into this, I think they'd have faired a bit better. Would still get thumped, but they'd have bloodied the 58th more than they did.

Granted, its an opinion but no less valid.

who makes 15mm modern cossacks

None that I know of – how would you identify a modern Cossack?

As I saw on NTV- cossacks were in Kamysh camouflage pattern- not much body armor- 47s…
Here are my 2 cents.
Judging by casualties and speed of operation
58th should be regular/professional
Airborne- professional
Russian spetznaz-elite
South Ossetians- hardened militia
Abkhazians- regulars/militia
Georgians- mix of professional ( georgian spetznaz), regulars and conscripts- reservists.
Numbers in this situation are a nonplayer- terrain is extremely rugged with only few approaches and small valleys with dence vegetation- check out the map. One can only pack in so many troops in that space.

Numbers in this situation are a nonplayer- terrain is extremely rugged with only few approaches and small valleys with dence vegetation- check out the map. One can only pack in so many troops in that space.

True but numbers still play a role the Russians can afford losses that the Georgains can't even if numbers are even on the front line knowing that you can replace lost tanks and men when your opponent can't is an advantage. Of course it would appear that russian airpower played a big role to.

Reporters seem to have been the Russian airforces main target during this spat:)

Whereas we don't know the casualty figures, it would seem we have the first occurence of a Russian army smashing a western-trained one.

And they didn't I don't think have overwhelming numbers on the ground, though the Russians did have overwhelming air power.

Still, it seems a truce has been agreed.

link

As for the Georgian army – I've heard reports concerning a Georgian POW stating 80% of his armoured unit had been killed.

Not sure if I agree with Segeis assessment that morale is bad – armour can be abandoned for lots of reasons, such as mechanical failure.

PLZ read my above numbers on Russian losses to date- rather small, but verifyible so far/ I did check some sites and numbers are consistent at least.
Ok, just watched latest news. Some interesting info.
Press conf with Gen Nagovnitsyn- there are no conscripts taking part in conflict on the Russian side- only paid professionals.
Russian army never left the immediate zone of conflict- ie South Ossetia. later said in the news that Russian peacekeepers are holding Senaki airport and disarming local georgian paramilitary police- taking heavy weapons issued recently and leaving earlier issued sidearms.
Abkhazians are regular abhkhazian army supported by reservists. There are still pockets of georgians in upper Kodori- those are surrounded and dealt with. Today Abkhazians report 2 WIA. 2 Abkhazian attack helicopters were fired at- no damage. Russian peace keepers aparently not in Kodori- they are guarging georgian border on river Inguri in the south.
Interesting episode- Russians found wounded georgian soldier near Tzkhinvali- while he is being cared by russian medics in the field- he chats on the cellphone with mom in Tbilisi: " I am fine!"
Just to point out the terrain in the vicinity of Kodori- mt Elbrus- 5642 meters, in South Ossetia- mt Kazbegi-5033meters, Mamisoni pass from North to south Ossetia- 2819 meters above the sea level.

As I saw on NTV- cossacks were in Kamysh camouflage pattern- not much body armor- 47s

So… looking pretty much, old (1970/1980) Soviet then?

Whereas we don't know the casualty figures…

Sorry to pick on you again Stu (I know you were only picking up on an earlier comment) but can I respectfully suggest we don't get into discussing casualty counts.

Geoff

Russian airforce had not hit much? Hmm, why then the reports of devastated Georgian infrastructure.
Abandoned armor all malfunctioned- boy, those Ukrainian built tanks are REALLY unreliable!

Referring to comments made earlier by CW, the propaganda war remains with conflicting comments about troop locations/advancement made by Russian, Georgian and western reporting (I haven't checked the Turkish one!) so I tend to take reported claims about where troops have been/not been as slightly dubious. ;-)

I think kamysh pattern is around 1995… It has black simulated blades of reed grass on green/khaki background…

But that's just down to the paint-job, doesn't affect me sculpting (no, I'm not sculpting on blades of grass!!)

I am sure one can use Soviet regulars as cossacks. Donno how you do 15s anyway- I sculpt 25mm- enough for me… :-)

…smaller scalpel blade ;-)