"Georgia and Russia" Topic

CNN just put out an update (again, unconfirmed info on Gori, but more details):

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Additional reports:

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As an aside, Russia Today's site attacked by Georgian hackers (this has been happening to both sides since hostilities began):

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Just a bit of aside recollection here, but does anyone remember the original Ghost Recon game for the PC? Loved that game back in '99 or so, and the strange thing about it, the scenario was US Special Forces fighting the Russian army in Tbilisi and other parts of Georgia. Stranger thing about it, it took place in 2008…..

Was just thinking about that today……

Haven't played Battlefield: Bad Company by any chance?
Odd parallels there too.

A R Garbee,

Nope, haven't picked it up yet, but am a huge fan of the Battlefield series (and still play BF:2 and BF:2142 often).

Recruiting in North Ossetia; no further comment:

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Allen

Cossacks joining the fray…
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News is definitely slowing, just rehash of the days events now.

Personal, non-political, observation on the days events. From a Russian operational POV, if Gori has been seized, along with Zigdidi and Senaki, the rationale could be made that they are creating a buffer zone, putting Georgian artillery out of range of Soth Ossetia and Abkhazia.

This would mean that we are not necessarily seeing a full on Russian invasion of Georgia. Tommorow will be telling in many respects, for one finding out if Gori has actually fallen, and then seeing if Russia attacks any deeper into Georgia.

BTW, there are some interesting pics floating about of an SS-21 that landed in a residential area in the port city of Poti, saved one here…

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Also pics of Georgian soldiers from Iraq disembarking from US C-17's at Tbilisi airport earlier today:

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Cossacks joining the fray…

Reading that article, wow, just wow.

New footage on CNN showed two ZSU-23/4 parked along a road with a maintenance down truck.

First ZOO'S I've seen so far.

Still nothing from the Russian side to confirm they've taken Gori – beginning to wonder if it's Georgian propaganda or panic. Additionally reports that the Russians are "job done" in Senaki, and pulling back now that the airbase is completely hors de combat. I'd really like to know what's going on at the moment, as those two if true could point to Russia not piling in as heavily as feared.

Condottiere – there were reports of Azeri volunteers heading to Georgia a day or two ago (eg. en.apa.az/news.php?id=86553 .) Not really anyone else likely to I suspect.

Dom.

Analysis of Russian motives:

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The mission may well have been accomplished now.

Allen

Are any sources saying anything about the current combat effectivness of the Georgian forces? I imagine quite a few front line units must have been shredded, so I wonder how much of their hardware survived and how big a difference those 2,000 troops returning from Iraq will make.

Jason

Could be right at that. Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence look assured for as long as it takes them to join Russia, Georgia's military has been hammered pretty heavily, infrastructure probably a bit, and there's a reasonable prospect of the government self-destructing. Georgia "wins" in so far as it's still there, but that's about as good as it gets…. The big open question remains which way other countries (especially the Ukraine) lean as a result – towards Russia so as not to it off, or towards NATO in the hope of protection from Russia…?

Hrothgar – not a lot, no. That said, the reports around Gori (Georgians in full retreat, Russians possibly not even attacking them….) *might* indicate they're at breaking point. Hopefully the 2000 men are now not needed, but bearing in mind they're peace-keepers just flown back, unless there's heavy kit in place to much them up with (I doubt it….) they'd probably not be the ideal reserves in the face of mechanised opposition.

Uhm… there is a little problem with Russian actions… they will complicate their position in daghestan… also according to Ralph Peters:

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the operation is much bigger than the Weitz proposes I think that the Russians will push a little farther and Georgia is only the test case…

we will watch the next hours, days, weeks and months.

The big one will be the Battle of Tbilisi if the Russians ever decide to go for the touchdown. The Georgians are scrambling most of their remaining units to defend their capitol in anticipation of this. The 'best' may be yet to come, though I hope it doesn't. I'm a pacifist at heart you see.

Mmph. I thought Ralph had redeemed hismself with me, but he lost it at the end.

Allen

So is the resonable expectation here a residue non-threat Georgia, or will it soon "request" admission to the Russian Federation?

Allen,

Yep, I am kind of "hot-cold" when it comes to Ralph myself. Red Army was one of the best techno-thrillers ever written, but I recently slogged my way through his analytic "New Glory" and came away unimpressed….YMMV

5 Hour nap…..the last four days I am living on Tbilisi time. Must have coffee and check the news…..

Russia Today news feed reportin Russian forces have left Senaki:

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Text version:

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Well, so far not a lot of hard facts, just all the analysts and pundits putting in their .02 on many of the major news sites. It's after 5am local time in the region, so hopefully we will soon get some updates on the ground as to what is going on around Gori and in and around Abkhazia.

Why are small countries still using MBT's?
They are expensive, easy to target, prone to breaking down and require a large resupply organisation which is easy to disrupt.
Operationally tanks are best against infantry and rear areas in an offensive capability. Not against other tanks in a defensive role, especially against a far bigger opponent.

"Red Army was one of the best techno-thrillers ever written…"

Yes, it was excellent. To be honest, I haven't read any other of his fiction since.

Then-Major Peters really grabbed me when he made a presentation to a joint Canadian-UK-US conference one year, propounding the idea that as the Soviet Union came apart, our next threat would be fundamentalist Islam, and that the "soldiers" we would be fighting would be of a very different type than the trained, "regular" Soviet/WP conscript. He also flogged the briefing around the Pentagon, where it apparently got a lukewarm response.

I really bought into that idea as a wise prediction at the time. (Unfortunately I failed to foresee that before 2001, it would be a particularly futile exercise to suggest to the Army's training "establishment" that it redirect its focus accordingly. But I learned that lesson the hard way…)

Since retiring myself, I have been a little uneasy at LTC (Retired) Peters subsequent appearances as a military commentator in the media. Without straying into CA territory, it has alarmed me that his analysis has been heavily shaded by a certain political dogma.

In this piece, I was trying hard to ignore such clues (like the Holocaust reference) and focus on the purely military points. And I have no beef with the idea that this event was carefully planned and skilfully set up by the Russians. But I see no benefit in slapping the "madman" label on Prime Minister Putin, unless one is adopting a particular political stance.

Enough on that: the purely military analysis seems pretty sound to me.

Allen

Pat,

Because unless you wargame in larger scales, MBT's are a must! ;-)

Allen,

Without wandering into CA territory myself, let me just say that I agree with you 100% when it comes to Peters, that is one of the reasons I cannot digest any of his recent non-fiction work.

Paul

Regarding equipment, just as those alluded to earlier, with the recent involvement of Abkhazia, we are pretty much seeing everything in the Russian and old Soviet Cold War arsenals, with the exception of ultra-modern kit, such as T-80's, T-90's, BTR-90's, BMP-3's & BMD-3's. The Russian North Caucasus MD generally uses older designs, and AFAIK doesn't have more modern vehicles in service that are mainly being deployed to the far eastern and western MD's.

Another interesting observation from a modelling POV, looking at vehicles in say the Far East and Moscow MD's, you get mostly vehicles painted in the green/sand/charcoal three-tone scheme, so far I have seen just a few vehicles coming from 58th army painted in the three-tone, with the vast majority (including all the T-72's and 2S6 Tunguska's), remaining in overall green. Have mainly seen artillery, recon and some air defense units in the three-tone.

In other words, bodes well if you happen to be a lazy painter ;-)

Okay, NOT politically correct, but a great read and analysis here from exiled online (and should appeal to the modern wargamer in you):

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I thought Ralph Peter's article was interesting but like a lot of the news coverage the context of the last 17 years or so is not so well covered. The original Cold War never went away in Georgia.

One of the papers I had to write at university way back in 1993 was a national security policy for Georgia. Scarily the discussions arising from my presentation back then came pretty close to suggesting events of the last week.

I'd suggest looking for any of Mark Irkali's articles from Georgia written for Sobaka magazine whilst it was in print to balance the Ralph Peter's article. The West has contributed to this catastrophe as well in pursuing its own policies. Lot of miscalculating going on on all sides….

Russian occupation is not the game really is it? Destruction of the conventional Georgian army or reducing it's ability to pose a threat to the secessionists will suffice. It will be interesting to see how long Saakashvili remains in office. How much does his position relies(relied) on the relatively new monopoly on use of armed force (amongst even ethnic Georgians) that the US trained professional Georgian Armed Forces afforded him. And if it's gone….

Shervadnaze never enjoyed that monopoly and his position and life were constantly at threat from paramilitaries like Iaba Ioseliani's Mkhedrioni.

Whilst that far a step back doesn't look likely at the moment I'm fairly sure the Russian government would see any instability in Tblisi and a new leader as acceptable Lentulus but doubt you'll see that kind of request for admission from Georgia.

Just to add to largely Cold Warrior's data here…
As of Monday morning Russian reported total of 18 ( 12 russian peacekeepers)KIA, 160 WIA- with 60 hospitalised and 14 MIA.
As of Sunday morning Georgia reports 146 KIA and 768 WIA- has to be MUCH higher by now.
Russia admits to the loss of 4 airctaft to AA fire, as of sunday morning it was confirmed that 2 Georgian planes shot down- one in a dogfight, one by AA fire. All pilots are MIA, except one georgian pilot who was riddled by automatic fire from the ground after ejecting.
At this point Russians have complete control over Georgian airspace and deliver some serious pounding to Georgian military instalations and columns of georgian troops.
According to Reiters Russians took Gori, effectively cutting Georgia in half. Russians dispute the info categorically. There are no sitings of Russian troops in Gori, however Georgian troops fled in panic, in civilian cars, making signs of a cross and yelling: Run for your lives!- according to Reuters correspondent on the ground.
Senaki was apparently taken without a shot fired. I saw on NTV a meeting between Russian, Abkhazian and Georgian commanders- where it was agreed not to spill blood. Russian tanks rolled in shortly. Only fighting was apparently in Kodori gorge by surrounded georgian force that refuse to leave and was liquidated by Abkhazians and Russian commandos.
Initial push into South Ossetia was by 2 motorised divisions with support of tank detachments- all parts of 58th army. On friday night they were reinforced by Pskov Airborne, on saturday reinforced by Tver' airborne and Moscow speznaz. There are also 10000 Terek cossack volunteers massed in South Ossetia already- armed and chomping at the bit to set on Georgians in revenge for Ossetian victims. Don cossack host is also mobilising.
Russians are doing their best to hold them back but admit that it is increasingly tough on such a small piece of land.
If these guys will ever go in there will be rivers of blood- since those are all smaller caucasian nations that hate georgians for centuries. Georgia itself is a patchwork of very independent minded nations- Svans are a good example.
Mingrelis- largest nation in Georgia are not on best relations with others.
At this point Western media calls it a Russian blitz and that Georgian army is broken. I whould say that so far Russian army showed a pretty fast and skilled responce to initial Georgian assault- in a very tough mountainous conditions.
It looks like Saakashvili rolled the dice and lost horribly.
Due to initial georgian shelling and apparent atrocities vs Ossetians- Abkhazia and Ossetia are lost to Georgia forever.
Russian might try to play on independance of other Georgian nations and hopefully peel off some more satellite states, leaving georgia much smaller place- with people very angry at Saakashvili. I doubt there will be a drive on Tbilisi- if there is more mayhem created- like the Gori episode- Saakashvili might be deposed by georgians themselves.

Sergeis,

Thanks for adding some additional details!

Report that Russian troops have entered the Georgian port city of Poti:

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Gents, scary as hell footage of a Frogfoot attack on a BBC (or near a BBC) crew from yesterday near Gori:

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LOL!

Hysterical Turkish TV reporter during the evacuation of Gori:

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I will try to add more info from NTV news tomorrow at 7:00 pm ET- if there will be any more interesting stuff. Initally it was a mess and very hard to determine who is who. Georgians are largely Western armed and uniformed, Ossetians have their own tanks and APCs, and of course Abkhazians are armed to the teeth with their own airforce, armour and navy. It seems that all the abandoned/destroyed armour in Tzkhinvali was Georgian- judging by markings…
So far I do not see much victims amongst Georgian polulation- some are due to Russian bombing. But nothing like some very graphic scenes from Tzkhinvali with dead childen on the streets- according to locals shot by georgians. Refugees reporting from Northern Ossetia that georgian soldiers kicked them out of houses- "flee or die- this is not your home!"

As of now Ossetians claim 1600 dead and 3500 wounded civilians, with numbers to climb.
Georgians report around 350 dead and wounded civilians.
Georgian dead and wounded civilians are apparently largely relatives of military personnel residing on or near military bases bombed by Russians.

Sergeis,

Thanks for the update from NTV. Just one caution however, we should refrain from bringing to the table discussions of the civilian casualties and the accompanying claims and counter claims attached to it, as this is (understandably) emotional content that will lead us to CA territory if we are not careful. I can only imagine the kind of discussions on this over at the "Blue Fez" (not signed up for it so have no idea how heated it has gotten).

We should stick with the military details and direct news links pertaining to operations, lest things become heated. Just my .02, YMMV….

But I can certainly empathize with the sheer amount and range of emotions people in the region must be feeling.

Cold Warrior, WHAT was that reporter saying? Cut?

kyoteblue,

Again, not a problem at all. I would also like to thank everyone who is contributing, and the fact that for the most part we have kept this thread out of volatile territory (now when is the last time that could be said of a current event thread on TMP that has grown this large ;-).

Saber6,

No, from what I gathered, he is screaming the name of his cameraman (Ishak?), my Turkish is about as good as my Finnish, ie: nonexistent! :-)

Well, my developer who left Georgia a couple of days before the fighting kicked off came into the office today – apparently he was amazed last night to see video on CNN of the factory he was working in two weeks ago now in flames (an aircraft modification and manufacture facility next to the main airport in Tiblisi).

Poor guy left Georgia, got into the States and headed off on a hiking trip; he got back from that yesterday to find out everything that happened. Talk about your post-vacation buzzkill!

War Nerd and Ralph Peters are both worth reading, but both suffer from an inability to keep their personal biases out of their analyses; War Nerd scatters it all through, while Peters tends to put it at the end of his writing. But both have lots of useful nuggets of information and should not be dismissed out of hand; just take them both with a grain of salt.

Russian government denies any intent to drive on Tbilisi (video report):

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Our heroic Turkish reporter once again:

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I love this guy!!!! :-)

Wow. In that turkish report you can just about hear the guys in that AT gun section thinking, "great we just got these things camoflouged and now HE comes along. Thanks, Mr TV!"

Apparently, Western military experts are stunned at the speed of the Russian attack, and advance.

I really don't understand that, since every time the Russians attack anyone (lots of historical precedents available), the West is always stunned and surprised. There have been enough "incidents" in the past, that you would think the experts would have a clue by now that the Russian military can mobilize quickly, and effectively, when desired.

I'm not taking sides here, but it appears that if the reports of a Georgian offensive instigating the situation are true, they clearly didn't think the process through. It appears the Russians are better chess players, having fully evaluated their responses in advance.

Are there any more details of the naval battle, or the air campaign available?

In my brief search, the Georgian Navy is listed as having:
1 x ex-Soviet 206MR Missile Boat (named Tbilisi), with 2 x P-15M Termite Missile Launchers, a 76mm gun, an AU-176 Mortar, and 1 x AK-630M 30mm gatling gun; and 1 x La Combattante II (named Dioskuria), and armed with 4 x Exocets, 2 x 533mm torpedoes, and 2 x twin 35mm cannons.

There are a few other vessels available too, including 15 – 20 patrol boats, 4 – 4 Aists, 3 x 1400M Grif Patrol Boats, 2 x small Albatross ASW Boats, and 2 x 106K Vydra Storm Boats from Bulgaria.

Not much of a navy to be taking on the Russian Black Sea Fleet with.

Anyone know what Russian vessels were involved, and/or reports of amphibious landings, etc.?

I thought one of the brief glimpses of a vessel I saw on TV tonight appeared to show a Russian amphibious ship, like a Ropucha class vessel, from her overall shape, and the outline of her island. It was just offshore, alone, and moving from right to left across the screen. It appeared to be unescorted.

Without being coarse a small man with a strong friend sho
uld never try to, with a sudden upsurge move a foot so as to connect with a giants privates.

Where is Borat when we need him?

This was brilliantly planned by the Russians. They provoked the Georgians into action when they had their own "peace keepers" on the ground and divisions just over the border with their engines running. All timed to coincide with the Olympics.

The Russians have trashed the Georgian military. They have an excuse to keep troops in the separatist territories following hostilities as they painted Georgia as the initial aggressor. Georgia is possibly going to fracture further if the Russians can play on internal Georgian divisions. They may be able to shut down or gain control over Georgia's independent oil pipeline. They have also shown that the US and NATO can't be relied upon to take action to defend their "allies".

Sounds like a formula they can repeat.

One odd thing – when the Russians label some of their their troops in Ossetia "peace keepers" why do western reporters repeat this identification and thereby give it credence?

I wonder if this will precipitate a faster exit from the gulf over the next year. It may be easier to keep a lid on the Russians with larger forces in Europe.

Looks like that's a wrap – Medvedev has ordered an end to military operations. Final score Russia 1, rest of world 0 by my count….

Went in hard, ignored the protests, bit of a bloody nose for the other side to remind them who has the bigger bat?

It probably strays too much into CA territory, but will the the disputed regions be now looking for annexation with permanently stationed peace-keepers, or are we seeing a complete (staged) withdrawal?

I can't see a withdrawal happening; probably a nominal independence for the disputed territories with de facto Russian control. South Ossetia arguably more likely to formally join Russia due to the obvious appeal of unification with North Ossetia.

Just my 2p of educated guesswork, obviously, but I see Russian "peacekeepers" remaining in both regions for quite some time.

Dom.

Dom,

Yep, looks like it is over, thankfully! Part of the condition I am hearing on Russian media will be the permanent basing of Russian troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

There was also a Russian demand that Mikhail Saakashvili should step down that filtered out around the same time, then the ceasefire announcement.