""Will Historicon be moved from Lancaster?" Part II" Topic

All there are three posts on this on TMP with lots of good comments. I posted on the first one that there was a thread on the yahoo group about it. Several when over to to the membership forum (which is limited to members of HMGS) and tried to sign in. Pete also posted to the HMGS East unoffical group (open membership) as well as the exhibitor group and the staff groups.

I was emailing Pete on another issue and he told me about the number of folks attempting to join the HMGS-East Forum. I explained is was prob due to my posting on TMP. Pete asked me to post his three messages here on TMP for him. I am posting them here rather then on the three other threads.
VR
James Mattes

TO MOVE OR NOT TO MOVE – THE HISTORICON QUESTION.

From Pete Panzeri: Chair, Convention Site Committee.

The HMGS East BoD has long pondered "IF" and "WHERE" to move Historicon.

To date we have held fast to the principle that "The best course of action
is to act, but to also NOT OVER-REACT." And my personal promise has always
been (regardless of whether we moved or not) to "Prevent any indiscriminate
or disastrous Historicon relocation." Therefore, as HMGS East president,
I've initiated and chaired a BoD committee to serve as our "SITE TASK FORCE"
to (a) Establish clear relocation objectives (b) Conduct a professional
comprehensive site survey, and (c) set screening and evaluation criteria for
any move.

BoD OBJECTIVES:

1. Collect All Data and Evaluation will focus on determining if Historicon
should

a. Remain at the Lancaster Host.

b. Move to a new Location

c. If B, then when and where?

[A side benefit is that we have more options in-hand for our other
conventions or emergency relocation needs.]

SITE TASK FORCE PURPOSE:

a. Collect and compile factual, up-to-date convention site data from all
sources.

b. Review, refine, and implement approved "Screening and Evaluation
Criteria."

c. Evaluate Site Data and Criteria for an accurate comparison.

d. Render recommendations to the BoD.

OUR APPROACH: Compare the Host with the top few candidates in all of the
same evaluation categories. Then, if the Host were overall equal or better,
the recommendation would be to stay.

SITE CRITERIA

(Used to determine how well a venue meets our needs.)

SCREENING CRITERIA

(Used to screen out sites failing to meet our minimum needs. * )

1. Location: "The TARGET BOX" is from DC (inclusive) North to Philly. No
further West than Gettysburg (+/-)

2. Exhibit Hall Space: Requires a minimum of 80k Square-feet (Host has
almost this much) immediate and more space to expand into, up to at least
120k Square-feet.

3. Hotel Accommodations: Minimum 300 rooms onsite, and another minimum of
700 quality rooms within 2 miles with varied price levels.

4. Hotel Room Cost "affordable rooms" for a goal of $150 USD or less. /

5. Parking: Minimum 1,000 Cars (w/in ¼ mile -- Preferably Free)

6. Overall Quality (2 Stars = HOST. )

7. AVAILABILITY: Site is available during our target window (15 July to 7
August)

(* Excepting any expected negotiated changes).

EVALUATION CRITERIA

(Screening criteria included for comparison.)

1. Location (Population mass proximity. More is better)

2. Exhibit Space Available (More is better)

3. Exhibit Space Cost (Less is better)

4. Accessibility: Airport/Highway Proximity (Closer is better) (and human
civilization. ) Interstate Highway confluence,

5. Number of Hotel Rooms (More is better)

6. Hotel Room Cost (Less is better)

7. Onsite Parking/Cost (More is better/Free is best)

8. Local Dining & Tourism (More & closer is better.)

9. Prohibitive Issues I.e. Mandatory Union up/un-load, Flea Market
Laws/Taxes etc. (None is better)

10. Overall Quality (Better is better)

So with much of this data in hand, what place is perfect? NONE! What is
best? None clearly yet. The Lancaster Host Scores right up with the top
three choices. We have to negotiate to get what we need. And we are in the
midst of that now.

NEW SITE CANDIDATES:

We reviewed over fifty potential convention locations, and examined a dozen
that met initial screening criteria. The final Six in alphabetical order
are:

* Baltimore , MD Convention Center

* Gaylord's Convention Center, National Harbor , MD (Just N. of
Washington DC )

* Hershey Convention Center , PA

* Lancaster Host Resort, PA (Baseline for comparison)

* Lancaster , PA Convention Center

* Philadelphia Convention Center , PA

TIMELINE:

We will not move Historicon 2008, but a move as early as 2009 is possible,
later more likely. However, at this point the BoD has withheld from any
decision to move, or where to move. We expect to be able to compile and
review all the final data and Site Criteria and decide on or before Cold
Wars 2008.

BOTTOM LINE:

Our Objective is NOT to "Move Historicon," but to (a) determine whether or
not we need to move, and/or (b) if we can locate a venue significantly
superior to the Host in meeting our needs.

The BoD has hosted sensing sessions and conducted surveys to inform the
membership, and solicit feedback from all members' concerns and needs. We
will continue with that. Your input is needed and welcome, so please share
your feedback with the BoD soon. We look forward from hearing from you.

"Play the Game!"

Pete Panzeri

president@hmgs. org

"BE LIKE MONTY"

Opinions and Assumptions For-and-Against" Moving Historicon.

From Pete Panzeri pete@jodiecon. org

[ I preface all this with assertion that during the past 15 years since Historicon first moved to Lancaster , PA , I have been both "for" and "against" moving Historicon to a larger venue. I am now decidedly neutral. -- My personal experiences on the Historicon Question are below, if interested.]

Two loaded questions haunt all of HMGS East:

1. WHY should Historicon move?

And (if so)

2. WHERE should Historicon move?"

The first question is often answered emphatically by participants from every key-faction of our convention program --- most of whom can readily use a lot more convention space. Many from our Historical Miniatures Gaming Industry have appealed zealously to the BoD to move Historicon as soon as possible, and we have a large waiting list of vendors seeking to come to Historicon as exhibitors. Also, most of our current exhibitors seek to expand, but we have no more space to give them. Our Flea market is over-crowded as well. Expanding these areas would not only increase the quality of our show, but our income and flexibility as well. Many game masters, tournament coordinators and gamers are continually struggling for more tables and rooms for gaming. Finally for our gamer-attendees. Aside from the perception of a facility crowded with people, nearby hotels in the area are now -more than ever – sold out in advance.

However, to the contrary, I often hear the assertion that in all of these cases, a more efficient and effective use of available convention space and hotel blocks is undeniably a far less risky solution than moving.

Indeed, over the past two years our Historicon Convention Management Team has re-worked all of our space-usage and even secured larger room blocks from nearby hotels. The result is that we have found a lot more space right where we are. Finally, many HMGS East members have asked the valid question: "If Historicon has not grown to any noticeable degree over the past ten years, then why do we now need more space?"

The often cited "Move = Growth" perspective seeks to answer that question. Many feel that moving to a larger site will result in accelerated growth for the convention. There is some precedence for that. Over the past 20 years we have seen one very important trend: Many gaming conventions (including HISTORICON itself, as well as ORIGINS and GENCON from which HMGS born) all grew exponentially when moved to bigger and more accessible venues.

One key comparison of the "Move = Growth Theory" is that in 1996-97 when HISTORICON at Lancaster, PA reached peak years of around 4,000 attendees, both ORIGINS and GENCON saw little more than 5,000 [individual] attendees each. This alone is amazing. In less than ten years HMGS East's HISTORICON was nearly caught-up with top two gaming conventions in the USA ! However, in the following ten years since, ORIGINS and GENCON had settled into much larger convention sites and subsequently grew to over 15,000 attendees. Meanwhile, HISTORICON stayed in Lancaster and did not grow, but dropped down to below 3,000. Having said all of that, we must admit, growth in other cases still does not prove or disprove that Historicon would/could grow as much by risking a move now.

So, what follows is a compilation of data for the membership review and provide feedback to the BoD.

Some Estimates, Facts and Assumptions for HMGS Historicon Site selection:

· Historicon in Lancaster PA , currently draws just over 3k attendees. (Peaked about 4k in 1997, recently at about 3.2k).

· Approximately 12,000 different persons have attended at least once over the past 12 years.

· Approximately 2k have attended "religiously" (3 out of 4 years or better) over the past 10 years.

· Approximately 5k have attended at least "half the time" over the past 10 years. (includes religiously)

· Approximately 7,000 people have not returned for a second or third time.

· A core of approximately 500 attend all three conventions "religiously"

· Approximately 50% of our attendees come for the show's duration (4-days).

· Approximately 30% of attendees are Saturday day-trippers.

· Approximately 20% of attendees bring family for 3-4 days.

· Only approximately 20-25% of attendees can be accommodated onsite (300 rooms).

· Our attendee demographics hit center mass on 38 Y.O white married male with $60+K a year income,

· About 90% of our current attendees live North of Washington DC (inclusive).

· "Center mass" on attendee residence is around Philadelphia , but only 15% live in Philly environs.

· Highest density of attendees 25% live in a combined Baltimore/Washingto n Metro/Suburb triangle.

· Est. 10% Long-distances (300+ miles) attendees is limited by local airport access. (Side Note: Often is cheaper to fly into Dulles or BWI and rent a car, than it is to fly in/out of Lancaster PA or Gettysburg .)

· GENCON, DRAGONCON and ORIGINS gaming conventions ALL saw a 20% drop in 2006 (during summer Gas inflation) but Historicon actually grew 3-5%. (Assumed due to both our strong economic demographics, and our attendee proximity.)

· For comparison, see websites for the three larger US Gaming Conventions (non-historical) : GENCON, originsgames. org , gencon.com, dragoncon. org.

· See hmgs.org (again) for more details on HMGS and HMGS Historicon (The worlds' largest Historical Gaming Convention) and all three HMGS conventions historicon. org, fallin.org, coldwars. org )

Historicon will typically have:

· 600 + Gaming Events in its general gaming area, and "Club Rooms" taking about 40k square feet, and 1,000 rented tables.

· 150 + Gaming Industry Exhibitors who rent approximately 350 spots (6' space/table for 4 days).

· 300 + Flea Market vendors who rent approximately 300 slots (6' table for 4 hours).

CONCLUSIONS?

What does all of this data tell us? Well, first any such data could be erroneous, so we cannot "bet the ranch" on any one fact. We do know our Exhibitors GM's, Tournament gamers are struggling with space issue. But we also know moving a convention is a risk, and takes a lot time and extensive pre-planning, and many man-hours and volunteers dedicated to make it work.

Also, the surveys and data indicate that if only 1 in 10 of the 7,000 gamers who once attended (and NEVER returned) came back, then Historicon would have RECORD ATTENDANCE. Also, our Historical Gaming Industry would have RECORD SALES, and all of HMGS would have RECORD SUCCESS instead of the serious drops in attendance we've had for 10 years. Several surveys of Historicon Veterans at non-HMGS conventions cite the top two reasons for this as "over-crowdedness" and "nothing new."

Those are only SOME of the arguments and opinions I've collected for and against moving Historicon. There are more. All have merit, and all are probably faulty. Some move-stay convictions I've seen seem more due to personal gaming and/or business preferences, but most and some dedicated only to ensuring a continued success of our conventions "for the good of the hobby." Like me, I am sure we all wish to claim the latter nobler convictions as our own.

Finally, to be responsible, we must all recognize that VERY MUCH is at stake in a proposed move of Historicon, our most treasured asset. We risk loosing Historicon [a place for it] if we move and then cannot "go-back" to the Host. And therefore we must "Be like Monty" (Field Marshal Montgomery) and prepare ourselves for action ONLY when and where the conditions and odds are overwhelmingly in our favor.

"Play the Game!"

Pete Panzeri

president@hmgs. org

MOVING HISTORICON --- A PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE:

We all have personal perspective and convictions for "The Historicon Question" Here is mine:

When Historicon moved to Lancaster from the Penn-Harris over 15 years ago, I was ecstatic with the new site, and quickly became passionately nostalgic for the setting. I was vehemently against moving (as I know many are). However later, as a frustrated convention coordinator (trying to "fit everybody in) and as a GM myself (struggling for space), I became "less enchanted." I then spoke out in favor of moving. In all of those roles, I took a personal interest in "the Historicon question." I also felt qualified and thus obligated to help seek a solution. (Having personally founded and directed several small conventions across the USA, Europe and Asia – My first in 1978 – founding HOT [ORIGINS and GENCON historical miniatures programs] and serving over 15 years to produce many HMGS conventions) .

Knowing all of this, when a BoD plan surfaced to move Historicon to Valley Forge, PA surfaced, I went so far as to become elected to the HMGS East Board of Directors (a painful price). Then, as a BoD member, I looked closely at the Valley Forge proposal, and pushed-hard to abandon that risky and flawed plan. We did. That leaves us where we are today. Adhering to principles and not let my own personal or self-serving preferences prevail. Subsequently, I've promised to adhere to a "Prime directive" for the Historicon Question: "Prevent an indiscriminate or disastrous Historicon relocation." That does slightly imply " A bird in the hand … "

And now, after nearly 4 years on the BoD, after personal fervent searching, data collection, and course of action review. I am neither an advocate-of, not detractor-from moving Historicon. I simply want to make sure we get it right. (I am like Grandma. I don't care if it's a boy or a girl. "I just wanna see the baby!")

I am confident we can succeed for a few more years in the Lancaster Host despite any inadequacies. HOWEVER, I am also equally confident that if we rationally and systematically evaluate all new site options to meet our needs, that we can succeed and even grow. Having said all of that, I am now dedicated to being the (accidental) "honest broker."

"Play the Game!"

Pete Panzeri

president@hmgs. org

Does our opinion truly matter?

Aparently not, or else Historicon would be held at my house. ;)

Yes it does. I have made copies of all the comments over the past five years, here, on the Forum, via e-mail and the surveys as well. I am working right now on the Fall In survey, I would not put in 20 plus hours so far for nothing.
VR
James Mattes

Or, in Wilkes Barre.
What I said yesterday still applies. I haven't changed my mind after sleeping on it.

HMGS is not a democracy. It is a representative republic. We vote for our rulers, and they go out and do what they feel like. It's a fine system.

HMGS is not a democracy. It is a representative republic. We vote for our rulers, and they go out and do what they feel like. It's a fine system.

Or, more like Lucy says about Christmas on the Charlie Brown Christmas Special: "it's a big commercial racket. It's run by a big Eastern syndicate, you know."

…it is, afterall, an HMGS-East Syndicate.

…it is, afterall, an HMGS-East Syndicate.

Yep, and that syndicate needs to decide if it wants to stay the same or grow. Machts nichts to me!

The other conventions throughout the country need to look at the 7,000 folks that went to Historicon once and never went back. That's a huge potential group of attendees for a really massive historical convention. A convention of that size in St. Louis, Chicago, etc. would truly be amazing and obviously dwarf Historicon. If Historicon doesn't want those 7,000 people, somebody should find a way to get them to their Con.

I commented on this issue to a long-time dealer at Fall-In regarding the lack of dealer space at the Host. He lamented that the Board is adamant about increasing dealer space. He also mentioned that just about every line of miniatures being made today is currently represented by a dealer at H-con. Any additional space would be utilized by hobby shops or e-tailers hawking the same products at near-retail prices. Do we really need that? I had never looked at the issue in that light. Food for thought.

Not to be a smart ass (for once), but please explain to me why GROWTH = GOOD.
The stock answer is "Of course, we should grow!", but the reasoning why is not to me self-evident. I see nothing wrong with staying the same size.
Sure, GENCON et all have grown, but so what? Are we keeping score?
"Because we must!" is not a good answer, either.

The "Field of Dreams" Mentality is inherintly flawed.
The growth of Origins and Gencon are largely due to the explosion of the gaming industry around that time, largely due to MtG. When I was at Origins in 98, there were several thousand people there, specifically for the MtG tournaments!

Not to be a smart ass (for once), but please explain to me why GROWTH = GOOD.

Probably because the BOD equates it to meeting their Charter of "Growing the Hobby?"

Of course one could argue that folks who travel from Oz to attend, are not necessarily the tarketed market…

So what will be the Next Great Thing in historicals that will have the industry exploding, resulting in thousands of additional gamers campin in Amish pastures just to attend Historicon? Will it be Howard's next set of rules? Or Sam's? Or was Mr. Robinson right, and will it be Plastics?

Allen

…but please explain to me why GROWTH = GOOD.

It's so obvious: Growth=power. Power=money. HMGS-East is trying to take over the world.

Seriously though, there is a point where growth can be deleterious: size becomes unmanageable, or increases need for more administration, greater convention facilities, more problems related to congestion at cons, etc., etc., etc. All points to ponder on the road to world domination.

And well, conceivably, growth would help all the vendors who haul all their stuff cross country only to break even. More people involved: more chance at a sale. All this presumes adequate space for filtering about of course.

Not so much an HMGS thing other than they feel a responsibility to help vendors succeed. Just a guess.

I have heard horror stories, here on TMP, from GENCON attendants, pre-registered, who had to stand in line for hours. That gives me pause.
What's the point of having 10,000 attendees, if you can't get in?

That does sound like something Yogi Berra would say, doesn't it?

If I may be so bold as to put it in perspective, but I think it's less about the space and numbers and more about the quality of the space and facilities.

Obviously, that's a gross generalization, but why spend 4-5 days in squalor when one can stay at a nice place and have a better time?

Ah, nycjadie. You have seen the Black Hole of Calcutta restrooms?

I have to agree with nycjadie on this. I only stayed at the Lancaster Host one time, and won't do that again! Shabby rooms, chlorine fumes from the pool and bad food. We still attend but we stay in a better class of hotel such as a Marriot or the like.

And well, conceivably, growth would help all the vendors who haul all their stuff cross country only to break even. More people involved: more chance at a sale. All this presumes adequate space for filtering about of course.

And, also assumes that the expense for the Vendors did not go up considerably. The costs of a shinier venue need to be passed on to all participants. So vendors would have to pay more for their share of the more expensive exhibit space, possible Unions to move their, Parking, etc.

And also, if your attendees are paying more to attend in Hotel fees, parking, and registration that's less money available for the Vendors.

I stayed off site for Cold Wars in '07. (I'm not about to say where as I want to get a room there next year too!)

nycjadie is spot on about the state of the Host. I've *smelled* the 'Black hole of Calcutta' restrooms from the lobby and have no desire to repeat the experience.

Good points on increasing the number of commerical businesses in the vendor hall. I see an increasing number of of businesses chasing the same dollars with the same products. I'm more driven by the quantity and quality of the games offered than a multitude of product for sale.

Growth=power. Power=money.

So all the Hot Chicks will start attending?

I've attended some of the Mega-sized Gencon conventions in the Midwest and thought that they were too large and that the game registration was too cumbersome. Historicon is just the right size. It's big enough to attract people from all over the USA (plus some foreign visitors), has a great selection of dealers, it is relatively easy to sign up for games, and it is relatively easy for a game judge to set up his game. It is big without being overwhelming. I like that.

My only complaints would be directed at the restroom facilities, the lack of parking space and, to a lesser extent, the condition of the lodging rooms. It would seem that something could be negotiated with the Host about more frequent upkeep of the rest rooms during the convention.

I've complained many times on TMP about the conditions at the venue, and the general location, but I am going to channel my efforts more constructively from now on.

I understand that Historicon is an HMGS-East gig, and therefore it should be located in the US East. Other regional gamer societies (like HMGS-Midwest) host their own cons, like Little Wars in Chicago every April. While it is doubtful that the US (or world) could support three or four Historicon-sized historical miniatures conventions, size isn't the only thing that matters in a convention experience and I think the best thing for me personally is to pursue attending conventions that are more accessible to me (here in the northern US Midwest).

"So all the Hot Chicks will start attending?"

You mean like britney and Paris?

The day they show up, you'll know you took a wrong turn soemwhere along the line.

Allen

…after all, it's all about ME, right?

:)

there were several thousand people there, specifically for the MtG tournaments!

I remember seeing this at local cons (not 1000s though). I also saw that they left as soon as they were bumped out of the tourney. I would rather look at hourly headcounts (by area) than registration numbers

The Host is a sucking.chest wound of a site but HMGS-E is not talking of abandoning it for Cold Wars, just Historicon. I'm OK with that as the smaller numbers and lower temperatures of March put a lot less stress on the facility. Historicon is but one of three HMGS-E cons and why not see what moving one to a first class facility can accomplish. The net difference in cost is minor compared to the costs of spending 4 days and buying all those neat toys.

The net difference in cost is minor compared to the costs of spending 4 days and buying all those neat toys.

If you go to Baltimore or Philly, you will spend an incremental $80-100 just in parking. Food will be better, but more expensive. Rooms will be more expensive, and (in some cases) instead of having to cross the "Highway of Death" you will cross areas of "The City of Death" if you are not at the con site…

Growth is good for the hobby in my opinion. More gamers = more customers = more minis, rules and lower prices. Plus more people to play with of course :)

I'm not sure that "more gamers = lower prices" thing has been working so well the last thirty years or so…

Allen

So all the Hot Chicks will start attending?

Well, not all the hot chicks, but probably a few anyway. Afterall, historical miniatures gaming is not as cool as fantasy or Science Fiction. Those dudes have all the fun and chicks. I don't think the few, occasional
"drive-by" by Amish chicks in their buggies counts.

Well said Pphalen… I couldn't agree with you more.

"If you go to Baltimore or Philly, you will spend an incremental $80-100 just in parking. Food will be better, but more expensive. Rooms will be more expensive, and (in some cases) instead of having to cross the "Highway of Death" you will cross areas of "The City of Death" if you are not at the con site…"

Well if you don't mind not having it at a hotel or at least one within walking distance and don't mind not having alot of restaurants to eat at why not have it at the Farm Show Complex in Harrisburg Pa? It has plenty of space for games and dealers and plenty of parking. And they do have additional parking lots nearby. But as stated earlier there are no hotels within a few miles radius or restarants other then 1 or 2 fast food places close by. But you will have your space.

DJ:

Sounds good to me. Plus, the food can be brought to the con. As Eric at Conquest Miniatures mentioned the other day, he would probably make more money from food sales than miniature sales.

I don't know if I agree that rooms would be more expensive in a larger city. My standard room at Historicon 2006 at the Country Inns & Suites next door to the Host was by far more expensive than my standard rooms at the Hyatt for Origins 2004 & 2008 or the Hilton for GenCon 2005. But that was just my experience. The Hyatt is connected to the convention center in Columbus, OH and the Hilton was just two blocks away in Indy.

Inregards to the 7,000 people who went to Historicon once, there will be many reasons why they did not return.

In most cases these gamers are already attending their local conventions. So we are not looking for a lost tribe of gamers. It is just the fact that all converge to a H'con which makes the number large. But not so significant when spread out nation and in some cases world wide.

When people ask me about Historicon accross the South and the other regions that I display at, I compare a trip to Historicon as a Gamer's Mecca. The historical gamer needs to go their at least once in their lifetime.

Many gamers are strapped for loose cash to spend on an annual trip to such an event. Be happy that they are getting there at least once.

One last point, 7,000 for over 20 years would amount to only 350 new attendees per year. A very small percentage of the total attendance.

RudyNelson -- about 11% in fact. Not that small. I'd like that return on my retirement savings.

As one of those 7000, what analysis is being done to determine why they did not come back? Is anyone trying to get them to comeback?

My reason is distance/travel expense. Move me to with-in 6 hours and I'd be there.

BTW it should read that it is not an 11 percent loss, but a 89% return. THAT I would like for my retirement!

The rooms are fine. I have certainly stayed in worse in other cities and paid more. In my mind the BOD and HMGS serve to provide good cons – change is not a burning issue. I do not suspect that our niche would suddenly grow to the size of GENCON if only we had a huge facility and charged an arm and a leg for admission.

Sounds like another Market Garden disaster, like the Fall-Inn move to Md. My question is who are they trying to screw this time, last time it was Bob G.

"historical miniatures gaming is not as cool as fantasy or Science Fiction." Wow isn't this a sad truth?

Pete analysis of the facts only shows his bias and his belief that growth is important. I don't want HMGS east cons to be anything like ORIGINS and GENCON. I don't think it terrible important that 7,000 folks over 12 years did not come back (my guess is that a good number of these were drag there to begin with.) But just for grins,what are ORIGINS and GENCON retention's like?

I don't know if I agree that rooms would be more expensive in a larger city.

Last time Origins was in Philly (98 maybe?) The con rate for the adjoining Hotel was $130 USD – 150 per night, with an additional $20 USD per night for parking.

Last time I attended Atlanticon in Baltimore (sometime before that) rooms were 90-120, plus parking.