"Why doesn't anybody make...." Topic

This question seems to come up quite often and I thought the following notes might be of interest.

Let's assume you want to produce a single figure of your favorite hero from the War of Jenkins' Ear. You want it done in 15mm. And you wonder why it hasn't yet been made? Consider:

1) The cost of a good sculptor is about $10 USD per millimeter, so a good 15mm sculpt is $150. USD I'm not saying it can't be done cheaper, but this is a good figure to start with. So for your first $150 USD you now own the green.

2) Now you make a master mold. This will run you about $50 USD if you want your own. Of course, you could share with others and save a few dollars, but let's assume you want your own.

3) Next up is a production mold. This will cost you $50 USD to have made.

4) Now that you have the mold you're ready to cast. Let's assume your caster charges you $0.25 USD per 15mm figure and you order 400, for a total of $100. USD

At this point you have now spent $350 USD and have produced 400 figures. If you sell them at $1 USD each and sell out, you will make a gross profit of $50. USD Of course, you could produce fewer up front, share a production mold and go with a cheaper sculptor. So let's assume your investment for this figure is just $200. USD If you sell them at $1 USD each you now need to sell 225 copies to break even.

Now consider that you want not a single figure, but a pack of His Majesty's Desperately Bucolic Guards. For this you need one officer, one flag bearer, one drummer and three infantrymen (light inf, grenadier and line inf). Now let's assume you want to do three poses – marching, advancing and firing. Even if you use the same command group for all three, and you have no variations within the pose, your sculpting costs are now $1,800. USD You will probably need one master mold and four molds – $250. USD

So if you pack them in packs of 8, at a casting cost of $2 USD per pack, and sell them for $5 USD per pack, you now need to sell 683 packs (2050/3=683) to break even.

Now think, how many packs of this unit will the average gamer need to make one complete unit? Let's assume five packs per unit (one command, two line and one each of lights and grenadiers). That means you only need to sell 137 complete units.

That may not be a lot of units for, say, Space Marines, Ancient Romans or Napoleonic French. But ask as you consider your sales potential you need to ask:

(1) How many people game this conflict?
(2) How many do it in 15mm and not 25 or 10 or 6?
(3) Of those, how many collect the appropriate army?
(4) And of those, how many will buy these figures?

After all, some people will already have made their own unit through head swaps or modifications. Others will have proxied with paint. Others may just ignore the unit entirely, and substitute a regular line unit or whatever unit they have handy.

Of course, the above analysis assumes 15mm. In 25mm the break-even might look like this:

Sculpting: $3,000 USD
Molds: $300 USD
Casting: $0.50 USD per figure / $4 USD per pack of 8
Retail Price (8 pcs): $20 USD
Gross Profit per pack: $16 USD
Break Even in packs: 257
Break Even in Units: 52

There are, of course, a number of ways to get all of these costs down. For example, a manufacturer with a large range can modify one figure to make another for much less than a new sculpt. Doing a simple head or weapon swap for example. But even a modification or head swap requires some sculpting dollars, and all the other costs for molds and production.

Lastly, note that there is nothing on here about research time or costs. Nor for revisions to sculpts, licensing fees, marketing and advertising, general overhead (i.e. Paypal gets a slice, packaging, postage), etc.

Regards,

Mark "Extra Crispy" Severin
Owner, Scale Creep Miniatures

I love the conversations that start, "Why don't you make…" then finish "I'll buy 1" :-)

Or better yet, "I'd think about buying one…"

Excuses, excuses.
So, where are my 32mm WJE Bavarian Horse Grenadier kettle drummers, like you promised me at Susquehanna-con?

Didn't Foundry release some Russian guards in ceremonial dress or something for their SYW range, a unit that didn't even fight in the SYW?

Who makes Cacti in 28mm in metal?

… its a wonder anything gets made at all …

It's why you can buy a Tiger tank from every 15mm WW2 manufacturer, but a Maus from only one ;-)

Wait a second.
You got into the business and actually expect to make money?

Seriously, though, this is exactly why the Eureka 100 club(or whatever number it is) is pure genius! Why bother speculating how many special units members of TMP, a yahoo group, etc. will order (even when dozens of people chime in and say that they will!)

I would like to place an order for 1 (one) Mark Severin figure holding an empty wallet :)

There's also the factor that many gamers, quite understandably, will hesitate to buy minis from incomplete ranges. The capital required to bring an entire line of figures to market is quite a bit more than for 1 or 2, although one does save through conversions and such as Mark notes.

Spot on Mark!

I've bookmarked this page for future edification of self and others.

I also particularly enjoyed His Majesty's Desperately Bucolic Guards and would think about buying some.

@Pete:

What scale?

@Martian Root Canal:

For $500 USD you can have the real deal…

@pphalen:

The Eureka clubs are a good idea but rely on having a promoter to make people aware of it!

@doc:

And if that's not enough, in any given scale someone will want it to be compatible with big 15s or small 15s, of Foundry but not Renegade and so on.

@the OFM:

I thought I e-mailed you? They're ready. Send a paypal for $4,200 USD to info@scalecreep.com and I'll get them in the mail right away.

$500? The only problem with the real Mark Severin is that I would have to start a new scale…on second thought, I'll pass.

Wait. If he sends you $500, then your wallet won't be empty, will it?

How about he sends me the money, I'll PM you when I get it, and then you can see about getting his sculpt done? :)

Plus, I'm not compatible any other ranges…

12mm. But I intend to complain about Olmec heads no matter what you produce. I have street cred to maintain!

Big 12 or small 12 or what?

One last thing…

We're talking about one sculpt per pack. Think of a WW2 platoon pack. Some of the 15mm Resistant Roosters WW2 figures have over 10 unique poses per pack!

I DID send $4,500 USD to info@scalecrepes.com, but all I got back were very thin pancakes.

12 mm heroic pancakes, or more true 12 mm?

Who makes Cacti in 28mm in metal?

TCS makes saguaros. I've got some.

Heroic, of course. I never buy anything in true scale anymore. That is SO last century.

TCS makes saguaros. I've got some.

Made.
Not sure if they were picked up with the rest of the resin buildings…

Big 12 or small 12 or what?

I really mean 1/144 or N scale. I'm not actually going to tell you which, but I'll complain they don't really fit with my 10mm stuff.

Oh, you mean "compensating for something 6mm"

I'll get right on it.

Time to outsource production overseas to reduce costs.

Battlefront is moving their factory to Malaysia.

No doubt, they and others may find or develop sculptors with a lot of talent, willing to work for much less, until the rapid prototyping machines become less costly, and replace them.

Well I posted this on part 2 but then decided that maybe it should go here.

EC make sure that you include the cost of 'Flying the flag' at "PretentiousCon". Expect to pay over $400 USD USD for rooms and $1,000 USD in gas plus $200-$700 for a single booth and advertising. Oh yes food!

That is a lot of lead that you have to sale just to cover overhead let alone the cost of raw materials needed to make and package the initial stock and your restock of what you sold!

In my opinion you may be a little high in sculpting cost or a little low in mould cost projections. My 15mm Sahel castings are going to run about the same in both areas. Maybe actually a little higher in the mould area than sculpting but I have not yet got the final numbers in cost.

In the UK, substitute pounds£ for USD and you're about right. Then you'll also understand the problems of shipping products from teh UK to the US and trying to get it to arrive at a sensible price for the US market!

Plus,I'm not compatible any other ranges…

Let us be the judge of that. How tall are you to the gum line?