"Millenium Challenge 2002 - Was Van Riper right?" Topic

I'm opening up the discussion on this because of the Ukrainian success in asymmetrical naval warfare success against the Russians in the Black Sea and the use of tactics in the Millennium Challenge 2002 retired Gen Van Riper was put in charge of the OPFOR team.

link

Van Riper played the Red Team opposing force commander in the Millennium Challenge 2002 wargame. He easily sank a whole carrier battle group in the simulation with an inferior Middle-Eastern "red" team in the first two days.[6]

Van Riper adopted an asymmetric strategy. In particular, he used old methods to evade his opponent's sophisticated electronic surveillance network, using virtual motorcycle messengers to instantaneously transmit orders to front-line troops, World War II light signals to launch airplanes without radio communications, and fishing vessels as launching platforms for anti-ship missiles that outweighed the platforms themselves. He used a fleet of small boats to determine the position of the opponent's fleet by the second day of the exercise. In a preemptive strike, he launched a massive salvo of cruise missiles that overwhelmed the Blue forces' electronic sensors and destroyed sixteen warships. This included one aircraft carrier, ten cruisers and five of six amphibious ships. An equivalent success in a real conflict would have resulted in the deaths of over 20,000 service personnel. Soon after the cruise missile offensive, another significant portion of the opposing navy was "sunk" by an armada of small Red boats, which carried out both conventional and suicide attacks that capitalized on Blue's inability to detect them as well as expected.

Such defeat can be attributed to various shortfall in simulation capabilities and design that significantly hindered Blueforce fighting and command capabilities. Examples include: a time lag in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance information being forwarded to the Blueforce by the simulation master, various glitches that limited Blue ships point-defense capabilities and error in the simulation which placed ships unrealistically close to Red assets.[7][8]

After the simulation was restarted with different parameters, he claimed that the wargame had been fixed to falsely validate the current doctrine of the U.S. Navy.[9] He is also critical of plans for the occupation of Iraq and their implementation following the Iraq War. On April 24, 2006, he joined several other retired generals in calling for then-US Secretary of Defense and Iraq War architect Donald Rumsfeld's resignation.[10]

Here is a somewhat "blow by blow" description of the event: link

Considering the events of the last 2 years of the naval war in Ukraine, did Van Riper have it right and teach the West a lesson? Have they learned anything? What does the future hold in tactics and technology? Does this impact China's invading Taiwan?

Wolfhag