"Blinken Warns China Against Armed Attack on Philippines" Topic

Subject: Blinken Warns China Against Armed Attack on Philippines – The New York Times


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I'm sure Blinken will send a strongly worded letter of protest when the Chicoms sail their fleet into Manila Bay. I hope my relatives in Manila resist tooth and nail if they are invaded by Communist China.

Why don't the allied nations simply escort the next supply ship to the Philippines marines on the shoals?

I am sure that China is now terrified. We got a strongly worded letter! We must back off immediately!

Well, let's go ahead and sink em?

I'm sure that would "break someone's rice bowl". 😉

The Philippine Navy has a couple of Korean built frigates and corvettes that should be able to easily handle the most capable Chinese Coast Guard vessels – the Type 56. The Type 56 was actually a PLAN vessel, but had its missiles removed before being sent to the Coast Guard. It still has its main gun and is extremely capable as a Coast Guard vessel, especially in the intimidation role.
By using the Coast Guard and Militia to engage in hostilities with the Philippines, it keeps it lower key and non-military. If the Philippine Navy engage with the Chinese Coast Guard, China can plausibly claim the the Philippines raised the level of the conflict.
While the Philippine ships would be able to handle themselves against the Chinese Coast Guard, in operations like these the PLA Navy is never far away in case they are needed. If a Type 52DL destroyer, Type 54A frigate or Type 55 cruiser entered the conflict, then the Philippine navy really doesn't have the capability to offer much resistance. Even the air-force doesn't really have the equipment to help with only about 12 Korean T-50 light attack planes.

I think the old maxim 'The threat of force is often more effective than its application' comes into play here. Uncertainty as to what the other side is capable of/up to will hopefully keep things at the 'sabre rattling' stage.

Those countries around China must be ready to defend themselves. The US cannot defend them all regardless of alliances. I do not see a multi-national force in a specific country to block a thrust. Neighbors in the zone will not risk retribution by sending troops to a neighbor to help.

A good point TimePortal. There are some countries in the region with world class naval capabilities, while others have almost nothing.
The countries with decent navies include Japan, South Korea and India.

I actually plan to run a game at Historicon where the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force will be carrying out an attack against PLAN ships. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Maybe it is time to get all these allies into a group like NATO. Bring back the old SEATO name. A strong coalition of a number of nations in the region could make the PRC/CCP think twice.

A strong coalition of a number of nations in the region could make the PRC/CCP think twice.

That's part of what ASEAN is supposed to do, Legion, but with an emphasis on an economic role. But it's hampered a bit by the member nations who don't want "Western interference" (eg a US-led SEATO) as much as they don't want PRC interference. The PRC plays on that, too, as well as stirring up old ethnic tensions where they can (eg Karens versus Malays and Thais).

By themselves they aren't a big threat to the PRC's plans. If the US, Oz and India are invited in as associate members, however, or Taiwan is permitted to join, things would get very interesting. Perhaps terminally so.

I didn't know some of that Dal. Thanks for the intel … But I'd think without some US support it may be hard to really suppress China's "ambitions", etc. Of course, never fight the Chinese in a land battle on their own turf. That is SOP. But on the sea and air, it could be a different outcome. However, again no one wants WWIII with China.

But I'd think without some US support it may be hard to really suppress China's "ambitions", etc.

I think the ASEAN nations know that, Legion. But they are all ex-colonies and few, if any, would remember the colonial days even slightly fondly. Not to mention memories of Japan (now a key "Western" ally) in WWII. Plus some also have borders with the PRC, so it's not just maritime confrontations they have to be wary of. They remember 1979.

Pragmatism will eventually tip the scales, I think, especially with the PRC's increasing belligerence.

I am sure that China is now terrified. We got a strongly worded letter! We must back off immediately!

We do joke about diplomatic letters but there is nothing wrong with a diplomatic letter to underline that the US will stand by its commitments. Of course the problem comes if the other side hears a lot yapping that seems to cast doubt on the US's
(and indeed any other of the major powers) willingness to stand by its treaty obligations and the letter is not seen as a statement of intent. That's when miscalculations can be made. Contrary to popular opinion it seems words can have consequences.

+1 ROU. We give them an earful of opinions of our own weaknesses. A stream of negatives. It just encourages them, I think. And it ignores the fundamental power and competence of the west that they only wish they had.

Those guys on the Eisenhower are busting their butts daily on anti-Houthi missions. You put any one of us in the WH, brief us with the deep intel, then ask us what to do about Iran. And suddenly it might not be so easy to run our mouths about leadership. Or maybe it is and we blow it. I think Reagan and his team would agree, after a couple of dozen decades with no western nation making much headway with the inherent chaos of the ME, this is no light lunch.

IMO mocking of Blinken is unwarranted on the letter. It's not a joke. And the Chinese respond to us all the time with their displeasure about stuff. Each side engages in these diplomatic games to release some steam and keep us out of shooting wars.

We have plenty of agreements and military exercises with the Pacific rim states. If we gather all of us up and form one military treaty coalition, we give the Chinese a single clear cut enemy to howl about. IMO, mix it up and keep em less focused.

Manila Bay is safe from naval incursion. IMO the Chinese are upset with the new and/or upgraded US bases on the north coast facing the South China Sea and our new friendlier relations there. We play some sort of contact game with their air and sea forces on a regular basis.

Martyn's Historicon game sounds great!

ROU +1

Dal +1 Good intel … thanks !