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"South American Wars - How Likely?" Topic


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190 hits since 11 Mar 2018
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Comments or corrections?

jefritrout Supporting Member of TMP12 Mar 2018 6:52 a.m. PST

Don't think it will be Brazil v Argentina.

If it occurs it will involve Venezuela in some way, whether a civil war or versus Columbia, or Guyana. If it is Guyana then I believe other countries will involve themselves as well.

Personal logo John the Greater Supporting Member of TMP12 Mar 2018 10:51 a.m. PST

I agree with jefritrout. I would put the chances of one or more civil wars at 100%. But for Latin America that is not exactly going out on a limb. Venezuela is the prime candidate.

As for interstate wars, Argentina vs Chile would be my guess. By the way, that would be very cool to wargame.

Mithmee Supporting Member of TMP12 Mar 2018 11:51 a.m. PST

I agree the most likely war would be against Venezuela and Columbia.

But Brazil will have more pressing issues due to it rampant population growth.

Sir Walter Rlyeh13 Mar 2018 12:15 p.m. PST

44 years is getting up to half a century. So likelihood of a major war on a big continent with a half a century window? Extremely high to probable.

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