"How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond" Topic
5 Posts
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Martin From Canada | 11 Aug 2020 6:08 a.m. PST |
link June 2021. The world has been in pandemic mode for a year and a half. The virus continues to spread at a slow burn; intermittent lockdowns are the new normal. An approved vaccine offers six months of protection, but international deal-making has slowed its distribution. An estimated 250 million people have been infected worldwide, and 1.75 million are dead.Scenarios such as this one imagine how the COVID-19 pandemic might play out1. Around the world, epidemiologists are constructing short- and long-term projections as a way to prepare for, and potentially mitigate, the spread and impact of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Although their forecasts and timelines vary, modellers agree on two things: COVID-19 is here to stay, and the future depends on a lot of unknowns, including whether people develop lasting immunity to the virus, whether seasonality affects its spread, and — perhaps most importantly — the choices made by governments and individuals. "A lot of places are unlocking, and a lot of places aren't. We don't really yet know what's going to happen," says Rosalind Eggo, an infectious-disease modeller at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). "The future will very much depend on how much social mixing resumes, and what kind of prevention we do," says Joseph Wu, a disease modeller at the University of Hong Kong. Recent models and evidence from successful lockdowns suggest that behavioural changes can reduce the spread of COVID-19 if most, but not necessarily all, people comply. Cheers, Martin from Canada |
jdpintex | 11 Aug 2020 6:11 a.m. PST |
So in other words no one has a clue. |
Martin From Canada | 11 Aug 2020 6:18 a.m. PST |
I suggest you read this article in Nature about how the best laid plans can be derailed with insufficient political leadership. link |
John the OFM | 11 Aug 2020 7:47 a.m. PST |
Mike Tyson said it best. "Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth." |
StoneMtnMinis | 15 Aug 2020 8:40 p.m. PST |
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