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"How Deadly is Covid 19?" Topic


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Tango0103 Aug 2020 10:06 p.m. PST

"There may never be a 'silver bullet' for treating Covid-19, according to the head of the World Health Organization (WHO).

Countries around the world are locked in a race against time to test and produce a safe and effective vaccine for the coronavirus.

But Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the UN agency, said today that scientists may never find one that works…"

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Amicalement
Armand

Personal logo 20thmaine Supporting Member of TMP05 Aug 2020 8:01 a.m. PST

The difference being that Ebola outbreaks have been effectively contained (in the sense of not going worldwide) whilst Covid is as easy to catch as the flu (water droplet dispersion – cough, sneeze: so wear that facemask evil grin).

Measles – can be deadly, but has a vaccine so nobody need get it. Same for TB (inoculation), and Polio has virtually been eradicated – you don't want it but you'll probably not encounter it outside of a few places.

Tango0105 Aug 2020 9:51 p.m. PST

True….

Amicalement
Armand

Personal logo etotheipi Sponsoring Member of TMP07 Aug 2020 4:35 a.m. PST

The chart illustrates the problem with discussing science in media.

The label on the chart says "fatality rate". That is a specific term, and it is referenced to the WHO. Almost. The WHO has multiple fatality rates and the specific data is not referenced.

Having different models is not "cooking the books" or "lying with statistics". I would bet everyone on this board would have different mental financial analytic frameworks and for buying figures at convention out of pocket cash and making a major purchase that would require substantial payments over a number of years.

The foundation of every scientific inquiry is a set of assumptions about what is (an implicitly, what is not) important. The results only make sense and have utility within that framework. Even scientists have challenges with this when they use models and data from another discipline as inputs to their own work.

So, the chart has specific, contextual data, and the reference doesn't tell you enough to look it up. Though, you could probably find it through hours and hours of trial and error. Also, while they have the label "fatality rate" on the chart, it is a small subheading, and the red outlined bolded title has the unspecified (and emotionally evocative) term "deadly" in it.

They also added the bit about including data from poor countries with little or no health care. I would assume this is manipulation of presentation of the facts (not manipulation of the facts) to lead the reader to draw a conclusion that the number represents something higher than the readers need to worry about.

If they had properly referenced the data, you wouldn't need to tell people this. It's also a vague concept and doesn't include things like (1) how many poor countries with little or no health care (however that is assessed) have huge amounts of medical aid for COVID-19 right now? (2) how many of those countries have a sparse, widely dispersed population that doesn't internally interact much as opposed to global economies that send things and people all over the world every day? (3) how does that affect the denominator (number of reported cases, including non-fatalities)?, and so on.

Asteroid X08 Aug 2020 9:14 a.m. PST

In addition, death rates have been intentionally falsified.

Reported deaths were inflated to assess the impact of potential under-detection of COVID19 deaths. An inflation factor of 50% was chosen since, on average, several European countries reported under-detections of 50% in an analysis conducted by the New York
Times.

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