"Next 5 years predicted to be abnormally hot" Topic

"This summer's world-wide heatwave makes 2018 a particularly hot year. As will be the next few years, according to a study led by Florian Sévellec, a CNRS researcher at the Laboratory for Ocean Physics and Remote Sensing (LOPS) (CNRS/IFREMER/IRD/University of Brest) and at the University of Southampton, and published in the 14 August 2018 edition of Nature Communications. Using a new method, the study shows that at the global level, 2018-2022 may be an even hotter period than expected based on current global warming.

Warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is not linear: it appears to have lapsed in the early 21st century, a phenomenon known as a global warming hiatus. A new method for predicting mean temperatures, however, suggests that the next few years will likely be hotter than expected.

The system, developed by researchers at CNRS, the University of Southampton and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, does not use traditional simulation techniques. Instead, it applies a statistical method to search 20th and 21st century climate simulations made using several reference models (1) to find 'analogues' of current climate conditions and deduce future possibilities. The precision and reliability of this probabilistic system proved to be at least equivalent to current methods, particularly for the purpose of simulating the global warming hiatus of the beginning of this century…."
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Amicalement
Armand

This reminds me of the number of storms and hurricanes the experts predict every year. Needless to say, they are wrong more often than not.

So, will we see another shipfull of scientists in the polar regions, looking for examples of exceptional melting of sea ice, but instead get stranded in the middle of a frozen sea?

It was very funny last time it happened*, though most mainstream media avoided reporting about it, at least until they couldn't ignore the story any longer. Then they brought very little attention to it.

Of course, the global climate control proponents constantly use weather examples to support their climate predictions. But when skeptics and opponents bring up weather examples to challenge those doomsday predictions, then the challengers are immediately accused of confusing weather and climate.

Dan
* The vessel was the MV Akademik Shokalskiy, in Antarctica, December 2013

Gee, news flash! It gets hot in the summer. I bet it may get cold in the winter. Any takers?

Dave

They can't predict the weather tomorrow, and we're supposed to believe they can figure out 5 years from now?

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They can't predict the weather tomorrow, and we're supposed to believe they can figure out 5 years from now?

Yes, for the same reason that you can't predict the exact roll of 2 fair D6, but can say with high confidence that the average roll of 1 million d6 rolls will be 7.

That being said, this paper is facing significant pushback from the climate modelling community. One of the more accessible ones is Tamino's post here: link

Like other doomsday cults. If your date slips, just set it further out. The faithful will follow.

Excellent! More time on the beach!

If you guys can manage to raise the sea level 100 feet, I might finally get to walk to the beach for a change.

Dan

Interesting because a solar expert says we are in for cooler weather in next 4 to 7 years.

LOL. Ancientsgamer, that's a perfect example right there!

Well, I honestly don't understand their need to issue their silly predictions every year. It always feels like they just simply pulled their predictions out of a hat*.

Dan
* Or from under a turban:

(smile)

Amicalement
Armand