"How Scientists Predict if a Spacecraft will fall and..." Topic

… and kill you.

"MAYBE YOU'VE HEARD that Tiangong-1, China's 19,000-pound prototype space station, is scheduled to rain down on Earth … eventually. As in, some time between now and next April. Most of the spacecraft will burn up in orbit—but sizable chunks (up to 220 pounds, by one estimate) could end up making landfall.
Thing is, nobody's sure where those chunks will land. Experts aren't exactly perturbed by this: The odds are slim (like, one-in-a-trillion slim) that some part of Tiangong-1 will come crashing down and do you bodily harm.

What you probably haven't heard is how experts go about determining those odds in the first place. In which case, please allow me to introduce you to the supremely fascinating world of object reentry risk analysis—the science of predicting which of the tens of thousands of derelict spacecraft, spent launch vehicles, and various other hunks of technology orbiting our planet will survive their inevitable plunge through the atmosphere and pose a threat to people here on Earth.

The first thing you need to understand is this: When a spacecraft plummets to Earth, it rarely makes the trip intact. The extreme heat and violent forces of atmospheric reentry obliterate most small objects (the industry term for this is, awesomely, "aero-thermal demise"). But the components of larger spacecraft can and do survive, depending on their thermal properties, how aerodynamic they are, and where they live inside the spacecraft…"
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Amicalement
Armand

"Aero-thermal demise" Oh I am so stealing that.

(smile)

Amicalement
Armand

Time for a Dead Like Me reboot.

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Mike Bunkermeister Creek
Bunker Talk blog

Missed me by that much.

To be whacked by a falling piece of space junk has got to be the ultimate statement of plain, bad luck….