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"The astonishing unlikelihood of our total eclipse" Topic


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358 hits since 19 Aug 2017
©1994-2017 Bill Armintrout
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Personal logo Great War Ace Supporting Member of TMP20 Aug 2017 5:21 p.m. PST

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Fun read. I hadn't bothered to think about distances and ratios. This does sound like something not merely coincidental. Anything else as perfectly aligned and sized as our total eclipses would be seen as "constructed" to appear that way.

Gunfreak Supporting Member of TMP21 Aug 2017 12:29 a.m. PST

Why do you link to a page that talks about proof of god on the science board?

MHoxie21 Aug 2017 12:31 a.m. PST

"This is rather as if you imagine a puddle waking up one morning and thinking, 'This is an interesting world I find myself in — an interesting hole I find myself in — fits me rather neatly, doesn't it? In fact it fits me staggeringly well, must have been made to have me in it!'"

-- Douglas Adams

Personal logo Patrick R Supporting Member of TMP21 Aug 2017 3:36 a.m. PST

So ?

I was confronted a few days ago by a driver who felt he had more right to turn right than I had crossing the street when it's green and he cut me off.

I could have wondered that the likelihood of this happening is almost impossible because seven billion people, divided over the surface of the planet and all the hundreds of millions of cars, the odds of me, that particular car and that spot coming together is almost inexistant that I could conclude that some strange force had a hand in this or admit that it's simply a coincidence.

Given the size of the universe, the number of planets and moons, one coincidence is not a good correlation for evidence of some greater design.

Winston Smith Supporting Member of TMP21 Aug 2017 4:38 a.m. PST

At this moment in time, the radii are perfect. However, the moon is getting closer. Or is it moving away? I forget, but it's orbit is not static. In a million years the coverage will not be equal. Still a good show, but still……

Gunfreak Supporting Member of TMP21 Aug 2017 4:42 a.m. PST

It's moving away. In a few billion years it will slip away from earths gravity and hurl into space.

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP21 Aug 2017 6:43 a.m. PST

It's trying to escape the Earth's fate.

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP21 Aug 2017 6:48 a.m. PST

MHoxie, this is the crux of most of AGW's musings on this site. "The Universe is designed just for us." Sure! I've brought out Adams' quote many times, but to no avail.

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It's been termed "survivor bias".

Personal logo Patrick R Supporting Member of TMP21 Aug 2017 7:11 a.m. PST

Earth Will Have Its Last Total Solar Eclipse in About 600 Million Years

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Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP21 Aug 2017 10:48 a.m. PST

Where I live in Southern Ontario, we are only getting a partial eclipse without about 75% coverage. Right now it should be getting to the maximum. I have the day off and am building terrain for my ACW game for Fall-In. I'm looking out the window and it's getting dark out, but due to overcast clouds and not the eclipse. I threatens to rain by the looks of things. frown

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP21 Aug 2017 11:04 a.m. PST

So the Sun is out now and only about 40% covered. I ran out and took a quick (unprotected) look at the Sun. Couldn't tell the difference. More frown

How are things looking from your vantage points?

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP21 Aug 2017 11:18 a.m. PST

It's moving away. In a few billion years it will slip away from earths gravity and hurl into space.

Actually it won't. In 50 or so billion years it would be in a totally tidally locked stable orbit with the Earth. It would be if our Sun would let it. The Moon will suffer the same fate as us.

Martin from Canada21 Aug 2017 11:34 a.m. PST

I got decent pics with my smartphone, but I had to use manual settings on the ISO and shutter speed.

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP21 Aug 2017 1:21 p.m. PST

So, in a break from gluing foam sheets, I did some calculations like the guy in the OP did. To get a perfect 400.452 ratio the Moon would have to have been 232,000 miles away instead of the 239,000 miles that it is away from Earth now. That's 7,000 miles it has flown away from us from the perfect ratio.

The Moon travels away from us at about 1.5 inches per year.There are 63,360 inches in a mile. Therefore it takes the Moon 42,240 years to move away one mile. To move away 7,000 miles it would taken 295,680,000 years.

The author is "amazed" that his calculations tried to show that 400.452 was equal to 389,121. He said they "match up perfectly. Not almost perfectly. But perfectly, and bizarrely so." However, the ratios that he finds so "amazing" actually occurred perfectly over 295 million years ago.

"It may be true that seeing a Grand Designer behind these breath-taking events requires what we call a leap of faith; but it may also be true that seeing mere coincidence behind them requires an even greater leap of faith."

I guess the Grand Designer had the very primitive biota of the late Carboniferous period in mind, for observing this breath taking event. (Sorry, just waiting for glue to harden during terrain building)

Edit: I erroneously thought the Moon was moving 2 1/2 inches away from us a year. It's only 1 1/2 inches which pushes the time line even further…..well before the archeosaurs (the creatures that would eventually develop into primitive dinosaurs in the early Triassic.

Charlie 1221 Aug 2017 5:45 p.m. PST

The author is "amazed" that his calculations tried to show that 400.452 was equal to 389,121. He said they "match up perfectly. Not almost perfectly. But perfectly, and bizarrely so." However, the ratios that he finds so "amazing" actually occurred perfectly over 295 million years ago.

Hate to bust his bubble (not really!) but 400.452 and 389.121 do NOT "perfectly" match up. Any dull math student can tell him that!

It may be true that seeing a Grand Designer behind these breath-taking events requires what we call a leap of faith; but it may also be true that seeing mere coincidence behind them requires an even greater leap of faith.

Well…. The first takes a suspension of physical reality. The second merely takes an examination of physical reality.

I also read that the occurrence of this eclipse over the US is confirmation that the US is "God's Chosen" (or at least in the minds of some curious ultra-fundamentalists). Have to say, some of my Hebrew friends would take justifiable umbrage at that; they were here long before the US!

Personal logo Great War Ace Supporting Member of TMP21 Aug 2017 5:58 p.m. PST

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I stayed home. Salt Lake City observed 90% occlusion.

The Grand Designer had a long term phenomenon in mind, lasting millions of years. So the margin for error, while small, remains with us. When we get "out there" and find out that our moon is the only one that creates total solar eclipses, then all you all skeptics will have to rethink this hard case denialism you are pathematically bound to.

Or even more weird would be a discovery that habitable earthlike planets seem to come with these single moons that create total solar eclipses. Finding more than one or even an amazing number of them, all with these incredibly precise ratios, would indicate "builders".

MHoxie22 Aug 2017 12:19 a.m. PST

"The Grand Designer had a long term phenomenon in mind, lasting millions of years. So the margin for error, while small, remains with us."

He did his best. Good enough, for government work, as they say.

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP22 Aug 2017 2:45 a.m. PST

The Grand Designer had a long term phenomenon in mind, lasting millions of years.

Since the GD doesn't seem to share his design purpose with me personally, but seems to with you, can I ask, "To what avail"?

Why build a phenomenon that is "perfect" 295+ million years ago?

Finding more than one or even an amazing number of them, all with these incredibly precise ratios, would indicate "builders".

You fell for the author's argument hook, line and sinker. It's only an "incredibly precise ratio" if you force yourself to agree that 400.452 and 389.121 are equal. They are not, in case you don't know. But keep banging that theological square peg into a round hole, by all means. It's entertaining.

Like MHoxie states, "Good enough for government work".

Nice picture though. Leaving the lens cap on one side of the binoculars would have made a better image. Our maximum wasn't that good.

link

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP22 Aug 2017 4:33 a.m. PST

So I started doing some calculations with Jupiter and Saturn and their largest moons, Ganymede and Titan respectively. These moons are much too small to fully eclipse the sun (given that the gaseous nature of these planets would preclude anyone seeing an eclipse).

I suppose GWA would say this is evidence of a "builder" not being interested in having eclipses for these planets. I would counter that the incredible tidal gravitational forces of these gas giants would preclude the formation of large moons.

On the other hand Charon will easily eclipse the Sun totally, almost every time it gets between the Sun and Pluto. At the phenomenal distance of 1.6 billion miles from the Sun, Charon only needs to be .14 miles in diameter to occlude the Sun from Pluto. Charon is about 700+ miles in diameter. So what theological significance can I glean out of that? Nothing, I assume. Charon and Pluto are extremely close and tidally locked. But at least you could see an eclipse from Pluto.

Personal logo Great War Ace Supporting Member of TMP22 Aug 2017 5:36 a.m. PST

Why build a phenomenon that is "perfect" 295+ million years ago?

Everything was "perfect" when conceived and carried out. Evolution is "perfect", if it doesn't unaccountably get replaced by yet another theory which is even more "perfect" to explain how life goes along.

If "God" was toying around with total solar eclipses, during an idle moment, out of cosmic boredom, it would have been for what seemed good enough at the time. Perhaps a passing thought, "Oh, this will mess with some of them, later on," brought a smile as "God" moved on to other matters.

You fell for the author's argument hook, line and sinker. It's only an "incredibly precise ratio" if you force yourself to agree that 400.452 and 389.121 are equal. They are not, in case you don't know. But keep banging that theological square peg into a round hole, by all means. It's entertaining.

They are close enough that a more fair comparison to shapes of pegs and holes would be round and ten-sided, not square. I think it would rather easy to bang a ten-sided peg into a round hole.

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP22 Aug 2017 7:23 a.m. PST

If "God" was toying around with total solar eclipses, during an idle moment, out of cosmic boredom, it would have been for what seemed good enough at the time. Perhaps a passing thought, "Oh, this will mess with some of them, later on," brought a smile as "God" moved on to other matters.

So it's all about me? wink

Martin from Canada22 Aug 2017 5:15 p.m. PST

'Je n'ai pas besoin de cette hypothèse' -Laplace

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP22 Aug 2017 5:34 p.m. PST

thumbs up

Personal logo Great War Ace Supporting Member of TMP22 Aug 2017 5:53 p.m. PST

It does delight the imagination.

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP23 Aug 2017 6:43 a.m. PST

Even if you are just making stuff up?

I mean is it, " …match up perfectly. Not almost perfectly. But perfectly, and bizarrely so."?

or is it, "….close enough"?

A lot of hand waving is going on here.

Gunfreak Supporting Member of TMP24 Aug 2017 4:16 a.m. PST

Its obvious god hates humans, dirty monkey men!
Gods chosen people made in his image is Dimetrodon, we know this as god made the perfect Eclipse for them! Clear 100% proof. God feel the world has gone to a hell in the handbasket after the Permian extinction.

His lovely Dimetrodon gets killed off by satan. Then satan creates the T-Rex in his image. But then Zeus gets jealous and kills off the dinosaurs to create the mammals in his image. Now Ra feels it's his turn so he is killing off all the mammals so he can create the giant Zoidberg like lobster people in his image.

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP24 Aug 2017 5:28 a.m. PST

Makes sense. wink

I'm sad there was no love for the trilobite.

Charlie 1225 Aug 2017 4:00 p.m. PST

Ah, no love for the trilobite. Pity, too. It was a real survivor. But it just ain't sexy.

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP27 Aug 2017 3:41 p.m. PST

Trilobites were varied and fascinating.

PDF link

The closest living relative is the horseshoe crab, also a great survivor…….about 450 million years worth. Sadly, now endangered from human interference.

One example is for good reasons. The true "blue bloods" of the invertebrate world.

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Personal logo Great War Ace Supporting Member of TMP28 Aug 2017 8:02 a.m. PST

Reduce our numbers to a billion more or less and the natural world will come roaring back, and ninety percent of all life can recover to being wild again. That does delight the imagination too.

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP28 Aug 2017 1:01 p.m. PST

And how do you propose going about culling the population? Aye, there's the rub.

Personal logo Great War Ace Supporting Member of TMP28 Aug 2017 4:51 p.m. PST

Not culling, reducing. It would take a generation, if humans limited the size of their families. It is all dependent on education and quality of life.

Charlie 1228 Aug 2017 5:18 p.m. PST

China tried that. Ask 'em how it worked out.

You want to induce your Malthusian solution, you're need a real good pandemic or a total global war.

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP29 Aug 2017 4:24 a.m. PST

Seriously, you guys couldn't adopt the metric system when your government tried to impose it on you. And you think a "one child" edict will succeed?

I can see the complaints now. "India isn't doing it. China isn't doing it. Why should we?"

Not gonna work.

It is all dependent on education and quality of life.

Not working so well for global warming though.

Personal logo Great War Ace Supporting Member of TMP29 Aug 2017 8:55 a.m. PST

Metric and standard is an aesthetic thing. Both work. Bad analogy on educating vis-a-vis human population.

China did not try it; they demanded and ordered it. Not the same thing as educating and inducing.

See, the open secret is "Gov't imposed". That will never work. You have to change minds.

Why is Europe's indigenous population steady in most areas and in decline in some? Because of affluence and education.

There would be no complaints, because Indians, Chinese, Africans, S. Americans, when they have an affluent lifestyle, will also be educated (they go indispensably together), and will reduce population.

How quickly the population would drop is the problem. Education is one thing, choice quite another.

If a core part of the education was convincing the main mass of people of the truth of a much reduced human population as the key to a balanced Nature of the future, then individuals will limit themselves to one child, or two where their population is already in balance where they live. (Three children or more would be acceptable if a child died early and was being "replaced".)

Inducements would accompany the education and worldwide movement to drastically and swiftly reduce population. Inducements would be lucrative or in the form of "bennies". That is the only way for Gov't to get involved. Coercion is right out………..

Personal logo Great War Ace Supporting Member of TMP29 Aug 2017 8:58 a.m. PST

Cross over to the "open defecation" thread: the core issue to raising people out of poverty is to give them an abundance of safe water. I didn't appreciate this before. The presence of safe water in abundance causes a huge increase in freed up time and improved health. The economic benefits are almost inconceivable, and immediate. The education we are talking about follows shortly after, because being liberated from the burden of unsafe and inadequate water allows time to study and learn, and work to earn a living instead of merely surviving.

Personal logo Bowman Supporting Member of TMP30 Aug 2017 6:46 a.m. PST

I do like how these conversations meander like little streams of thought.

I'm not sure your explanation of affluence and education are as simple as you make it out to be. None of the populations are decreasing, but they certainly are not increasing at third world rates.

Education levels aside (I assume birth control and family planning courses are ubiquitous across Europe) the affluence correlation is problematic. Germany and France are rich, affluent countries and both have low birth rates. Italy and Spain are in relative dire straights financially and have crippling unemployment rates. They have lower birth rates than Germany or France. It's not the one to one correlation you expect.

Some of the other issues are nicely summed up here. It's Spain-centric:

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As for your "open defecation" thread, I totally agree. I don't say that often enough. laugh

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