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"So the lesson is - never make a prediction" Topic


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528 hits since 22 Oct 2012
©1994-2026 Bill Armintrout
Comments or corrections?

Personal logo 20thmaine Supporting Member of TMP22 Oct 2012 9:50 a.m. PST

even if that's your job : link

Presumably if they'd said "lets go for caution and tell everyone to leg it" and the quake had been as small as they expected then they'd have been in trouble for overstating the situation.

Damned if you do…damned if you don't.

Texas Jack22 Oct 2012 9:58 a.m. PST

Man, that is taking government accountability a bit far! Of course now every earthquake will be predicted as the end of the world and this office´s usefulness, if indeed it ever had any, will be at an end.

Eclectic Wave22 Oct 2012 9:59 a.m. PST

That was very short sighted of the Italian government. Now, for fear of being prosecuted, scientists will either make no predictions or at the very best, predictions that will be so vague as to be useless. Predicting earthquakes is not an exact science and has a reliability record that's worse than predicting the weather.

Personal logo etotheipi Sponsoring Member of TMP22 Oct 2012 10:51 a.m. PST

accused of having provided "inexact, incomplete and contradictory" information about the danger of the tremors

The resolution to this problem seems simple to me. Instead of making predictions, and thus adding "subject matter opinion" and "interpretation" to the bare facts, they should just publish all the raw data and allow the public to interpret it for themselves.

… and that goes for the weather, too!

adub7422 Oct 2012 1:37 p.m. PST

"sighted of the Italian government"

One judge is hardly the Italian government. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail.

Gunfreak22 Oct 2012 2:19 p.m. PST

Not to be overtly racist or biggoted, but he was probebly drunk and horny, and one of his 5 misstreses is probebly pregant and demanding child suport. Which made him slighly annoyed.

Cincinnatus22 Oct 2012 4:09 p.m. PST

I saw this story today and it seemed so ridiculous it made me wonder if there's not more to it than is in the story. If not, that's a very poor ruling.

nazrat22 Oct 2012 7:45 p.m. PST

"Not to be overtly racist or biggoted,"

Too late!

Buff Orpington23 Oct 2012 3:41 a.m. PST

"Not to be overtly racist or biggoted,"

Or dumb as mud.

Eclectic Wave23 Oct 2012 9:17 a.m. PST

One judge is hardly the Italian government.

----------------------------------------------

The Italian Government pressed the charges, the Judge didn't!

adub7423 Oct 2012 2:02 p.m. PST

:) I won't pretend to be an expert in Italian law. But I assume if it's like it is in the states… then one overly aggressive DA looking for reelection isn't hardly the Italian Government either.

My point is… a single ruling in a single court without any appeals is too small of a sample size for blaming a whole government.

Cincinnatus23 Oct 2012 4:51 p.m. PST

Funny but it doesn't seem to work that way for the US. We have individual citizens do something stupid and whole nations decide we're Satan.

That's just one person or a small group of people. Not even an official part of a state or federal agency.

Mike at Work 223 Oct 2012 9:59 p.m. PST

well, llike 50% of convictions in the italian courts are overturned, so they will spend some time in prison and/or pay fines (not refunded when proved innocent) and it will be over with.

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