"Fantasy vs Historical Companies...OOB" Topic

Recent events and threads on TMP made me ask myself this question.

Over the past 30 years, which segment of the gaming industry has had more companies go out of business, the historical or the Fantasy/SciFi industry.

Since I have been going to shows as a dealer since 1983, I have seen a vast number of companies come and go.

After I can see a few posts of opinions and input, I will post my opinion later.

Not sure raw numbers would tell a meaningful story. It would be like comparing the number of US farms which went under in a given time frame to the number of buggy whip makers which went under. The historicals segment has consistently dwindled since those first Minifigs Middle Earth figures were released.

Allen

OK. This is just a guess . . .

Historical ranges are very generic and not tied to rights. For example, anyone can make their version of Greeks, Romans, etc. Though historical material might restrict individual interpretations, the ranges are legally "safe".

Except for the very openly accepted orcs, goblins, giants, etc., most fantasy manufacturers (and sci-fi for that matter) try to exercise their creativity to the max, meaning that they will try to either make their version of someone else's existing line (which brings about legal problems) or they will try to create their own races and types (which, if not in demand, will usually flop).

This usually means that, while a historical army may have compatible figures of various compatible manufacturers, most fantasy and sci-fi forces are made up mostly of the figures from a single manufacturer. In other words, with fantasy and sci-fi it is all or nothing. And it must be very hard to get customers to buy into their necessarily unique interpretation of races/types/whatever.

In short, I think that more fantasy/sci-fi companies end up going belly up, than do their historical counterparts. Historical manufacturers benefit from making figures compatible with those of other manufacturers and, unless truly exceptional in quality, will rarely benefit from doing figures that stand all on their own.

CC

Good points, CC. OTOH, popular youth culture, at least in America and, I gather, in Britain, has been much more "fantasy" than "historical" in recent decades. My impression — comments please? — is that a large number of kids try fantasy gaming: many then drop out as puberty hits, some stick with it, and some of those move also or instead into historicals.

OTOOH, the minority of adults who game probably spend far more annually on their hobby than do the adolescents, so one historical gamer may equal several fantasy gamers in economic impact.

I have for 10+ years done summer camps for gamers. The Civil War is very popular in Chattanooga, and it has been easier to get PARENTS to pay for a "history camp" than for a fantasy camp. However, my campers are mostly either home schooled or attend a Christian school, and they tend to be very enthusiastic about LOTR and now Narnia — and their parents support them in this.

Doc,

I like your analysis. That would explain why fantasy manufacturers (and I group sci-fi with it) try to squeeze as much money as possible from their figs while they have the attention of their young (and attention deficit) customers!

A perfect example of the turtle and the hare!

CC

". . . so one historical gamer may equal several fantasy gamers in economic impact."

I agree. I am trying to stay to a $1200/year limit ($100 per month) this year (mostly historicals) but, I can already tell you, it will really be in the thousands again.

And I don't have to ask my parents for money for my toys!

CC

Yawn… there we are again with the old shallow youth-oriented fantasy versus more mature historical gaming culture cliché… It's all wishful thinking and has nothing to do with Rudy's question.

When I look at fantasy miniature companies, I see a level of professionalism, both in terms of product quality & marketing, which is less common in the historical segment of the market. It has taken historical companies far longer to start acting like real businesses than it took those catering to the fantasy crowd, but they're slowly catching up. And what do you see? That the more succesful ones, like Foundry or the guys behind Flames of War are just as eager to "squeeze as much money as possible" out of their customers as Games Workshop or Rackham.

". . . so one historical gamer may equal several fantasy gamers in economic impact."

Aren't historical gamers widely known for their cheapness? :-p
The real big spenders seem to me the toy soldier collectors. The ones who don't complain about paying $20-30 for a single miniature with an average "toy soldier" style paintjob.

Interesting points all. If I remember the 70s and 80s correctly, it seemed in the 70s there were a very few companies producing historical figures in metal. One or two made fantasy offerings which seemed to explode during the AD&D era into the dominance of Games Workshop. I would guess that in raw numbers more fantasy commpanies close shop, but fantasy is a larger market. Right now we are in the "golden age" of minis in that you can find an extreme variety of figures for just historical alone. Another point to ponder is the tendency for historical companies to have a "zombie-like" existence once the original owner sells up. At Cold Wars I bought a couple of packs of 20mm modern figures made by MLR in the 1980s, but still manufactured as "Combat" and sold by FAAUSA. The figures are now 20yrs old!(and very good BTW).

Rotorvator,

For most historical gamers, volume counts.

If the quality merits it, I don't mind paying top dollar for metal, as long as I get a large variety of figures to fill out my army.

RPG gamers, and young fantasy gamers in general, normally buy a handful of figures at most, albeit at a high price. The latter is limited by income, while the former does not require large number of figures and wants each figure to be unique. I don't know very many adult fantasy gamers who are purely customers (in other words, not into the business themselves somehow).

I can't comment on the toy collectors. I don't know a very large number of real gamers as it is, but real toy collectors seem to be rarer still (at least in my neck of the woods).

CC

Ok. To the question then . . .

"Over the past 30 years, which segment of the gaming industry has had more companies go out of business, the historical or the Fantasy/SciFi industry?"

I have not been gaming with metal for anything like 30 years. However, from leads on TMP posts I often go to the Manufacturer's directory. Once there I find that most Fantasy and Sci-Fi lines have changed owners repeatedly, while very few of the historical ones have apparently done that.

That is the only apples-to-apples evidence that I can find for saying that "Fantasy/SciFi" is my answer. Everything else I posted here is just a guess (speculation) from general observations.

CC

A lot of the fantasy gamers I know collect large Warhammer armies (5-6000 pts), and more than one. Some systematically buy every new one that comes out.

You shouldn't underestimate the buying power of kids btw. Many 16-20yr old have part time jobs which bring in money they can spend on whatever they fancy, as they still live at home & don't have any costs. These incomes in themselves may be relatively low, but they can waste all of it on whatever they fancy. And for younger kids there are the parents… nagging can be very profitable ;-)

You may have a point about the quantity historical gamers will buy… but didn't the big battalions go out of fashion? I regularly read old timer remarks about the decline of big battles & the rise of historical skirmish gaming on various wargaming forums.

So, Rudy, what is your opinion on which companies go out of business?

CC

Just thinking back over the 40+ years I've been involved in the hobby, it appears to me that when historical companies go out of business, often their lines soldier on (e.g., Scruby/Ultimate/Historifigs). And many companies do both historicals and fantasy, of course, so where do you put Ral Partha in this.

My impression is that most of the time when a miniatures company goes under, it's due to some outside factor. Retirement (death or partnership breakup can also be included here) is one – that's what shut down Scruby and Ral Partha. Merger is another (Der Kreigspielers became part of Heritage) Gross mismanagement is another (supply your own examples). Rarely is it lack of sales.

Ah my opinion, remember that I cannot do long posts. The key points and my focus tend to get lost.

Well it seems to do a proper analysis, you would need to break the industry into several key areas.

Such categories would include United Kingdom as compared to USA companies; distributors- retail stores; type of product casting-terrain- game- paper (rules and support) and decades of operations (operated in the 1970s-1990s-2000). maybe even a consideration for casting scale?)

The market seems to have changed over time and with different % of focus in the UK vs USA.

And there are a lot more manufacturers based outside the US and UK than previously, particularly in Europe.

David McBride has just launched Splintered Light Minis. It's all 15mm fantasy now, but will have historicals (Arthurian/Dark Ages) soon. He's got a "real" job and doesn't have to make a living at it. But we'll see which side of his product linbe prospers most.

Peter, one thing that I have noticed about the non-UK/USA casting companies is that a vast majority are historical oriented.