"Tariffs and Boardgames" Topic

Well worth a read if you like boardgames: the worst losers are retailers.

link

This article assumes that China will not come to the negotiating table within a short measure of time. Other countries have balked, defied, then recanted and came to the negotiating table, rather than lose valuable trade with the USA.

If you look at the statistics of China's trade volumes with the USA, you will see that China is extremely dependent upon their sales to the USA. They will not survive a trade/tariff war with the USA, as the USA is around 90% of their trade business! Negotiations are only a matter of a short amount of time. Cheers!

The President and his Commerce Secretary have stated, multiple times, that these tariffs are not a negotiating tactic. Until proven to be a lie, the assumption must be that they are sincere.

Thanks for sharing this article. Much appreciated. The direct and the effects of these tariffs are going to be very hard on our table top gaming hobby. As game manufacturer pull back or close it will lead to a loss of retailers, support for local conventions and fewer products available to us all.

Just about every game product out there has an imported component if it is not entirely imported. Some have said 3D printing will pick up the slack in miniatures but those printers are all imported to my knowledge as well.

If you want something, I would get it yesterday.

USA accounts for 14.8% of China's trade business.

time to work on that lead mountain. I have stopped boardgaming in 1991 , but I have 4 or 5 boardgames at home I have not played. So, if I need to play the reserves will do nicely. This will all sort out in a few months. I do not expect it will affect any of my purchases, anyway.

Maybe a good opportunity to buy used games and miniatures? Start watching TMP market and elsewhere?

Even if it is a negotiation tactic – and the administration's intent seems to be to replace some taxes with tariffs – it will crush small businesses.

If I'm Bill's Boardgames and I had a product in the pipeline, due to launch in June. Do I import now under 50% tariffs and lose sales etc.? Or do I wait until trade negotiations are concluded and forego cash flow for an indeterminate amount of time?

Companies without very large cash reserves cannot survive this kind of "negotiating."

"If you want something, I would get it yesterday."

I'm already lookin' at Print 'N Play game potential, and most things PDF.

This of course will not help our brick-and-mortar retailers survive.

Ush, I think Americans probably looked at Brexit as a crazy, populist, nationalistic-improbability that could never happen on these shores.

(seems the same mindset can screw folks over, wherever they live)

Several nations, including India and Taiwan, have announced they will not put reciprocal tariffs on the US and actively seek negotiations which could include the removal of ALL tariffs between the US and their nations, going both ways.

These announcement are going to have a huge impact on the rest of Asia, as all these nations compete for US market access. The dominoes have already started to fall.

Here's a question:
If tariffs are economically a Bad Idea, why do all of these countries have their own tariffs on the US?

Back in the 1980s, American board games were very expensive in Britain due to tariffs.

Now so many books and board games are printed in China. I checked a couple of cases of books in my store stock. Osprey and Concord printed in China. Even my cases of Rocco books and Napoleonic artwork and American Civil War artwork were shipped China.
So a tariff war will hurt the retail gaming industry.
Though I will say that small outfits, such as myself, will have our items printed in the USA.

Back on an actual intelligent discussion of this topic, I would point out that energy prices in the US are currently plummeting. We're now down to $3 USD per gallon gas price average across the state (locally it's under $3 USD), from the Biden era $6 USD average. I expect these will fall even further, approaching Trump's original low of under $2 USD a gallon. These reduced costs will appear in reduced costs of consumer goods, particularly food, and related services, too. This will also result in an increase in wages as companies profit off their reduced energy and shipping expenses. It's going to be an economic boom— just as it was the last time around. (China needs that Wuhan lab to get busy.)
Note also that the decrease will affect goods sold overseas— again, particularly food. That means more money coming into US farmers and related workers and industries. (It also means that Iran and Russia will have less money to spend on their war-making efforts.)

As for the stock market, I'm personally excited about the plunge, because it's gonna put some key stocks in reach of my investment again as the panicky morons sell them off. Apple isn''t going anywhere, nor are several other companies I could name. In Apple's case its goods will likely be exempt from US tariffs, as it has already committed to and begun work on manufacturing facilities in the US, which is Trump's standard for who gets tariffed and who doesn't. Make it here, no tariff, no matter what any foreign government decides. That's brilliant, by the way. China has multi-national corporations which they support and encourage to trade in the US. If they put restrictions on these companies from opening manufacturing in the US, they only shoot themselves in the head. So they must allow these corporations to build in the US— but they can do so while ranting about how they'll never take down their tariffs… because that will mean their tariffs won't mean anything, as they won't tariff the goods of companies based in China but made overseas and returned to China!)

Don't forget: China is at negative population growth. Their position as an economic, political and military superpower is derived from their worker population, which fills their factories and their military. But that population is rapidly growing older, and cannot be replaced. (So much for "abortion as population control" as a good idea.) You need 15-35 year olds as factory workers. You also need them as soldiers. You can have one or the other; they cannot be both at the same time. You know what you call an army that has no privates? Nothing; it can't exist. And the window for which you can have any given private/soldier/grunt at any given time is going to be ten years at the most for a reasonably functioning soldier. Just like with professional sports, the number of men who can maintain the physical capability for active combat reduces the older they become— and if combat is going on, that number is further reduced as by those who become casualties. It's great to have an old guy (under 40) as your QB, but the rest of your players can't skew that old.
So in a few years, China's numerical dominance in workers and soldiers is going to vanish, because time is a relentless b******. All officers/management, nobody holding the gun or the wrench.

So, weaving back, China's economic might, which is nothing like the US's, is teetering on disaster. They're racing towards the ocean with the cliff fast approaching, and the brakes are doomed to fail. Because not only do they not have the men, they don't have the women to make more men. They sold ‘em all as adopted daughters to grateful families in the US over the last three decades. That's what you get when you tell your women that you only want male babies, and force them to give away the daughters as "orphans." When your male babies become men, they don't have any women to make babies with themselves. Oops. (Guess their actual version of the Handmaids Tale in reverse is not want you want, either.)

As for toy makers— again, I think an exemption could be found. But actually, I think the tariffs announced this weekend are going to vanish in short order as nations respond in an attempt to beat out other competitors. China will have to give way, or see their trade efforts supplanted and replaced by other nations.

Well,

If China crumples under this threat of Trump's tariff regime, sure hope we'll get first crack on those fresh, harvested body parts making it to the marketplace.

What can be agreed, we certainly don't need a greater Brain Drain Crisis than we're already facing!

Parzival,

You can't overlook the fact that TDS lives rent free in the heads of many of the posters on this site.

India, Vietnam and many others are already ramping up their industries to replace china as the source of cheap stuff. Nature abhors a vacuum, even in economics.

And if a company claims they were blindsided by the tariff equalization, then their stockholders/owners should consider replacing management, because after November 6th, even an idiot would know what was coming in 2025 and should have begun planning for it then(if not sooner).

And if a game is going to cost $40 USD to $50 USD, then it is on the designer to make sure the product is worth it.

Agreed. I'm not impressed with SJG whining, when so many of their products are, quite frankly, over-priced and low quality in terms of components. I love a lot of their games, but the production values in some are severely lacking.

Just announced: Japan will be entering negotiations with the US regarding tariffs against US-made goods (particularly automobiles). I expect that electronic devices will also be in the mix (don't worry, you'll be able to afford that new Nintendo Switch 2 in time for Christmas).

Oh, and as for domestic production of board games and components, these people (in Madison, Wisconsin) seem to be able to do it just fine: link

I don't want to say it's all rosy. I suspect (but have not confirmed) that the bite is gonna be in injected molded plastic. However, this list of-US based companies might have some who would be more than happy to expand into miniatures and models production. So I seriously doubt that any return to US manufacturing is either impossible or all that difficult even on relatively short order. link

Bill Ackman, Billionaire investor, who endorsed Trump's 2024 presidential bid, says the new tariffs are tantamount to launching an "economic nuclear war."

Hey, it's here on Elon's X, so you know it's gotta be true!

link

The text says: "What CEO and what board of directors will be comfortable making large, long-term economic commitments in our country in the middle of an economic nuclear war?"

The text says, "This is not what we voted for."

But then why so blindsided, Billionaire dude…"even an idiot would know what was coming in 2025 and should have begun planning for it then(if not sooner)".

We live in a world of professed experts I guess, until they're not.

If China crumples under this threat of Trump's tariff regime,

Last time China was losing a Trump trade war, we got a global pandemic. I wonder if Wuhan has a new strain or they'll try something else.

Well, we should rest assured, that there's another Kennedy in the Government again, and he'll be ready to meet that task (brain worm and all).

I'm thinking exploding cell phones (timed to go off during the State of the Union Address)…..looney tunes I know, but Trump's got Loomer on it already!

Btw Louis, you're not Jeffrey Goldberg are you?

you're not Jeffrey Goldberg are you?

No

Interestingly I'm getting emails about companies will have to raise prices…oh sure, your Kickstarter isn't fulfilling for 6 months and tariffs could be off, back on, or off by then with no notion of waiting or refunding any price increases.

🤔

Well, lo and behold: The EU has announced they are ready to negotiate to zero out all tariffs with the United States. Over 70 nations so far have expressed the desire for similar negotiations.

(Who knew how many nations somehow were able to have tariffs on the US without destroying their own economies? Are tariffs somehow only magically destructive for the US, but not for anybody else?)

The only holdout of significance is China, whose leader accused Trump of "bullying." So the actual dictator who rules China with an iron fist, is engaging in genocide agains the Uighur minority, is threatening to invade Taiwan, has denied and lied about the release of the genetically modified COVID-19 from a Chinese virus lab in Wuhan, suppresses freedom of speech, freedom of the press, and freedom of religion, and has violated China's promise to allow Hong Kong to retain its political and economic autonomy, is calling the democratically elected leader of the United States a "bully" for proposing tariffs on his greedy Pooh Bear butt.

Oh, the irony.

Oh and the stock market? It's on the rise again. NASDAQ is over 15,000 (again). Dow Jones is catching up.

Laughing at the panic party.

NASDAQ was up .1% while the Dow was down .9% and the S&P 500 down .2%. At the moment markets will react favorably to the idea of negotiations (futures are up as of 2200 MDT) but any authoritative statements from within the Administration that these are not negotiable will probably continue the slide.

Of all the media that best represents the closest thing to consensus among business, the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times are perhaps the best indicators of market thinking.

At the moment markets will react

Investors are probably unloading green energy stock for petroleum companies.

NVIDIA was overpriced so I see this as an opportunistic correction. The S&P is down 3% for the year so it's like having 97 cents vs a dollar. Not enough to induce me to jump off buildings

It'll be interesting to track the *upcoming* KS campaigns as you mentioned.

This will probably be one of the best, early hobby indications of the man-on-the-street reaction.

Parz and Mtn +1

I notice none of the crowd answered your question.

"If tariffs are economically a Bad Idea, why do all of these countries have their own tariffs on the US?"

I'm sure you were not really expecting an answer. 😉

Markets go up and they go down.

Right now Dow futures
39,276.00
+1,111.00
+(2.91%)

This just in: The EU is pressuring China not to retaliate, but to negotiate with the US on reducing or eliminating tariffs.

Oh, and Indonesia has announced that they will also work to eliminate tariffs and will, according to their government, "purchase more American goods." As I said, Asia wants to deal with the US, and Asian nations want to make those deals quickly, so as to get ahead of their competitors— mainly China and South Korea.

Oh, and I love people calling tariffs a "trade war." If it is, then the US didn't fire the first shot. Everybody else did, by placing tariffs and VATs on our goods. The difference is we're just now firing back.

Trump's not a bully. He's the new sheriff, and he's laying down the law.

It's boom time baby. Hang on and enjoy the ride.

Another bit of irony: We all know that Xiang and his ilk desperately want to be loved and respected by the world. They're like the boyfriend or girlfriend who are so profoundly jealous that they try to force their intended into "loving" them. But you can't do that. If they really want to be respected, they would cease all suppression of political and religious expression, stop micro-managing people's lives, and embrace full and complete economic and democratic reform to truly be the "democratic republics" they claim to be but are not. You want your people to love you and hail you as the greatest leader your nation has ever known? Then give them FREEDOM. And not only your people, but the people of the West will hail you as great, too.
Right now, you're the bully. And that's all you really are.

For anyone else not up to speed on their TLAs(*):

wiki – T.D.S: Trump derangement syndrome

(*) TLA: Three-Letter-Abbreviation

This might shine some light on the situation:

Yuetueb – Why Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense (big picture)

Parzifal, VAT is a sales tax raised on everything sold in the EU and UK. Doesn't the US have sales taxes ? From my brief time there I seem to remember three lines on each receipt for local, state, and national sales taxes. Would you call those tariffs ?

I'll let Parz give the answer, but will throw in some.

1) The US has no National sales tax.
2) the U.S. has no VAT tax
3) the tax is at the state level and that varies by state, with Alaska the lowest (almost 2%) to Louisiana highest (almost 10%).
4) VAT taxes are normally higher. Japan and Australia are 10% the UK is 20%. Other countries lower, higher or varied.
5) many countries do not add their VAT taxes to export items.
6) the U.S. can have a local sales tax or not. That varies between locals. Also % varies.

So a car purchased in Ohio

"According to the Sales Tax Handbook, you pay a minimum of 5.75 percent sales tax rate if you buy a car in the state of Ohio. You need to pay taxes to the county after you purchase your vehicle and those rates can lead to an additional 2 percent payment at the time of purchase. Ohio's state sales tax rate can change depending on the type of purchase you make"

Since we have no VAT, I do not really understand how it works that well, relative to export/import.

My own question: a car manufactured in UK, does it get a 20% vat tax added to its sale price, if sold in UK?
We know a car coming to UK from The U.S. does.
I could see that as being unfair.

In the U.S. a car gets state sales tax, no matter where manufactured.

Reuters explanation of VAT taxes.

Subject: Why Trump has thrown VAT into the trade stand-off | Reuters


link

"My own question: a car manufactured in UK, does it get a 20% vat tax added to its sale price, if sold in UK?"

Yes it does. VAT is essentially the same as sales taxes in the US. Note that some items are zero rated, VAT is not charged on such items made in the UK or imported from elsewhere.

The UK has very few tariffs on US goods, the US "tariff" is actually based on the difference in total values of goods heading each way across the Atlantic. I think that imbalance is not in the UK's favour but we got hit with tariffs anyway

S&P down 1.6%, NASDAQ down 2.1%, Dow down .8%.

Unless someone in authority either announces a successful negotiation or states definitively that these are negotiable, things will likely stay sliding.

Locking Navarro and Lutnick in a room with their mouths taped shut would help. The US Treasury Secretary Bessent or Rubio at State seem to be the grownups in the room talking about negotiation.

Tariffs are a national sales tax paid by the importer in the US. The importer can eat some, none or all the tariff or the exporter could lower the price by some, all or none. Ultimately any tariff that is not eaten by the exporter or importer, and generally neither will fully absorb the cost, is passed on. Any tariff not absorbed by the exporter as a price reduction or importer accepting a lower margin will be passed on to the consumer. Since the actual cash paid out is by the importer, the majority of costs will be borne by US companies or US consumers. Foreign companies may lose sales but anything that gets imported post-tariff will be paid by the consumer for the most part.

David thanks.

Last question.
So then, would a Ford shipped from the U.S. and a Land Rover manufactured in the UK, selling in Liverpool have the same vat percentage applied to both?

the US "tariff" is actually based on the difference in total values of goods heading each way across the Atlantic.

10% was a default setting thus even the penguins got the 10% and yes, the calculation has zero to do with VAT or tariffs, merely the trade balance with the default for positive balances or those where the formula yielded a lower number, defaulting to 10.

To add to what DM wrote, VAT/GST were supposedly designed to get rid of "black" and "grey" markets, simplify over-complicated sales taxes, levies and excises, and (surprise, surprise) provide funds- for profligate governments who are always short of money- for pork-barrels, perks, indefensibly high salaries (our PM gets a ridiculous $600 USDK: link ) and boondoggles.

Depending upon how they are used, they are taxes on the population of that nation, not a disincentive to import foreign goods- tariffs do that. However, if an imported product is subject to VAT/GST, but the same product, made locally, is not, then the VAT/GST is a default tariff.

As for boardgames, if Clash of Arms releases Torgau as part of their BAR series I'm buying, even if it means pawning my coffin and getting re-buried as landfill.

PS

the calculation has zero to do with VAT or tariffs, merely the trade balance with the default for positive balances or those where the formula yielded a lower number, defaulting to 10.

McKinstry, the US had a positive trade balance with Australia, so I don't think things are that simple. I think we got hit with 10% (higher for some specific areas/goods) because we won't abandon our biosecurity laws and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, and let even more US firms make huge profits at our expense. If the "reciprocal" 10% tariff is the price of keeping the bio-security and PBS then I'm happy to pay it.

Thanks Dal

The brilliance of the American internal trade system is that NO state can place a tariff on any good imported from another state. Period. In fact, if a good is not made in or offered for retail in a particular state, it was long treated that the state could not charge sales tax on that good, which was a big deal in the era of mail-order and early online shopping. Some states have since asserted otherwise, and begun to collect their sales tax through the argument that if an item is available for retail sale or the selling company has a presence in that state, then the good is "local" and can be taxed— and the seller has to collect it.
(Back in the ‘90s, Tennessee asserted that they could place a sales tax on any good coming across the border whether the company had any presence in the state or not, and that the purchaser was supposed to "voluntarily" calculate and send in the tax. You can imagine how many people volunteered to pay. On that issue, we were NOT the Volunteer State.) In any case, in all states all goods are subject only to the sales tax the same as goods produced in the state; it cannot be higher.
Interestingly, the US could indeed tax interstate commerce, but traditionally does not do so— however, federal taxes do appear on certain things, like fuel, and "regulatory fees" may also exist. (Phone service and other similar cross-state services bear federal taxes.) However, these taxes are assessed in all states and territories equally.
Given that the whole reason the US Constitutional Convention was called was to end state tariffs, it's easy to see why such things are forbidden or not done!

By the way, the above system is clearly highly viable as an economic state of affairs. It is indeed one of the primary reasons the United States has the most successful economy in the world.

I confess, I don't know the details of the Value Added Tax. On the other hand, if a tax is complicated, then the reason it is is to hide its idiocy and impact from the populace.

If I had my druthers, I would propose that the Unites States (and other nations) end both the income tax and the property tax and switch revenue sourcing ENTIRELY to a national sales tax and tariffs, excluding food, medicine, basic clothing, and housing sales/construction costs. This would turn all taxation into an entirely voluntary decision by the taxpayer— if you don't want to pay the tax, you don't buy the item. Period. If you want to buy the item, pay the tax. But no government should have the authority to take your money or your property away from you without your consent, except in cases of fines for gross criminal behavior.

I believe that if any nation did indeed switch to such a structure, that nation would see its economy boom and its government revenues rise tremendously. Because if people have more money in their pockets, they either invest it or spend it— and that's exactly what makes an economy grow, more than anything. Because an economy is nothing more than the buying and selling of goods— that's what it is. In fact, that's all that it is. And if you tie your government revenues to that, and work to promote that, everyone will benefit. Indeed that is the third most important function of government. #1 is defense of the people and their rights and property. #2 is fair and just application of laws and oversight of disputes. #3 is promoting, encouraging and actively boosting both internal and external commerce.
Everything else either falls under these three, or shouldn't be done at all.

Having completed around a 500 monthly VAT returns since July 2000 when a VAT (GST in Australia but the same thing) was introduced in Australia I can state that a VAT is not a tariff.

From a consumer's point of view it is no different from a sales tax and is added to the price of a product. Not all products have a VAT added. Fresh food, milk, medicines, and various other products are VAT Free.

For a business it gets more complicated as you claim back the VAT your business pays against the VAT you charge when selling your product or services.

The VAT rate charged is identical irrespective of where the good or service is sourced from. So if I buy $11 USD of hobby supplies from a shop in Sydney or from Aliexpress the same VAT of $1 USD is included in the final price.

Large foreign (non- Australian for me) online businesses (Ebay, Aliexpress) are registered for Australian VAT and collected it from Australian purchasers and pay it to the Australian tax office.

Small foreign companies are exempt, mostly because it would be too hard to collect and the cost of collecting would exceed the what is collected. Also there is a threshold of sales that needs to be exceeded before you need to register and charge VAT on your sales and many small foreign companies would probably not exceed this amount in their sales to Australia. Currently A$75,000 – about US$40,000

Australia's VAT was based on the tax systems in the UK and Europe so I assume it is roughly similar.

Happy to go on and on and on but I would rather not 😂

Dal – I believe every nation where the formula did not result in a number higher than 10 defaulted to 10. The White House released the formula and every country that did not yield a number over 10 defaulted to the minimum even where the US had a positive trade surplus.

VAT is charged on all goods sold in the UK, regardless of where they were made.

I know that visitors from abroad are NOT charged VAT, they get special (reduced) prices and receipts, though usually only in high-end shops such as the top jewellers frequented by rich Saudis.

I know little to nothing about exports as such. However, at the very least there would be a much reduced VAT based on wholesale prices rather than retail prices; I suspect that there is no VAT at all on exports.

Who gets the better deal ? The country receiving, let's say $1 USDm for its exported goods, or the country that gets to receive the $1 USDm dollars worth of goods that would have cost $1.5 USDm dollars to make itself ?

Thanks Dal

Thank you for those links you gave me to read, 35th. Even though I didn't agree with all of them, they gave me a broader view than I was getting from the sensationalist and self-serving media and commentators here.

I believe every nation where the formula did not result in a number higher than 10 defaulted to 10.

Thanks for that, Makka. I missed it in the other info I read. <devils advocate> Though that does somewhat weaken the "reciprocity" argument about the tariffs. </devils advocate>.

I can state that a VAT is not a tariff.

True, but in the situation I mentioned it becomes a de facto tariff- semantics notwithstanding. I know there's a lot of semantics involved in defining taxes, tariffs, excise, etc, much to Aussie- and probably other nations'- lawyers' delight. To simple me, if the government is taking money from me it doesn't matter what label they and their legal teams stick on it, it's still a bloody tax.

Welcome Dal. Cheers

But if a tax is levied equally between home and foreign suppliers, it just creates a flat playing field …

Stock market soaring today. So apparently, the sky is NOT falling.

Just heard Art Laffer speaking on this— the genius economist who advised Ronald Reagan and created the Laffer Curve (which rates actual government revenues vs. tax percentages, and shows that higher tax rates in general do NOT produce higher government revenues, but quite the opposite).

Though he is opposed to tariffs in principle, his take is that the current tariff announcements are brilliant— that they will bring nations to the negotiation table, so that the tariffs can be removed and other trade restrictions can also be eliminated to the economic benefit of all involved— Which is what we are seeing happen.

So again, read the cover of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy:
DON'T PANIC. Things take time to play out. (Though this is playing out very well, very quickly.)

Back on the very niche question of wargaming products, I would say this is a huge business opportunity for US printers and molders. If you can snag a portion of the production needs of US based game companies, they will be able to sell product domestically without facing a tariff at all.
As it is, I have never understand the eagerness of US game developers to partner with China production companies, given China's well earned reputation for IP theft and patent and copyright violation. You deal with the Devil, expect to get burned.

"Stock market today: Dow explodes 3,000 points higher, S&P 500 has best day since 2008 as Trump pauses most reciprocal tariffs"

Except China, which he increased again. Good opportunity to find new sources.

"Back on the very niche question of wargaming products, I would say this is a huge business opportunity for US printers and molders. If you can snag a portion of the production needs of US based game companies, they will be able to sell product domestically without facing a tariff at all.

As it is, I have never understand the eagerness of US game developers to partner with China production companies, given China's well earned reputation for IP theft and patent and copyright violation. You deal with the Devil, expect to get burned."

Well, same reason big business the world over did…… cheap, almost near slave labor. Owners and CEO's can't resist that. IMO, also kick backs from the Chicoms for doing business there and even more if you build brand new manufacturing plants for them. Maximize profits in the short term, no thought to the long term. Take their stock options, cash out and retire. I watched at least 3 CEO's do exactly that.

I would say this is a huge business opportunity for US printers and molders.

I don't think much if any quality miniatures are coming out of the PRC to begin with. Virtually all of mine are either US and UK already, but I don't have any plastics and have no idea how they are sourced.

Boardgames are, by the standards of printers, too small a run to care unless you are doing Monopoly or Risk. I'd like to see what GMT or Compass think about printing and die cutting in the US versus China from a cost perspective and for the cost differential, whether India or Indonesia might be better even with tariffs.

I can just hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth as the market rebounds.

If you want more of something, don't tax it.
If you want less, tax it.

Regarding trade deals, tariffs are just one factor to consider in balancing foreign trade. In addition, there is also currency manipulation, exchange rates, VAT taxes, and government subsidies to help your company be more competitive overseas. It's complicated, and many countries and companies try to cheat and game the system.

Wolfhag

Current status: All tariffs paused at 10% for the time being while negotiations are set up. Loser status goes to China, who does NOT get the pause, and now face 125% US tariff rate until they agree to negotiations.

India is looking to eliminate all tariffs on US goods in negotiation. So is Indonesia. So they could be good sources for printing and components. However, I think if the US (and certain once-great manufacturing states like Michigan and Illinois) would work to deregulate and lower taxes on manufacturers and energy providers, I think domestic production costs could be quite competitive. We're not able to be in the market because we've regulated and taxed ourselves OUT of the market— and a great deal of that is actually local in nature, with absurd property tax rates created by foolish city councils and equally foolish state legislatures.

Dow Jones: 40,608
S&P: 5,457
NASDAQ: 17,125

While still down from the peak this year, these numbers are pretty much at the same levels as fall of last year.
Only fools sell stock based on media-driven panics.

Oh, and the recession has been cancelled.

A lot of the fear that is going on reflects a broad example of Gell-man Amnesia. The term comes from a physicist named Murray Gell-man, who in a conversation with Michael Crichton observed that when he read a story on quantum physics in a prominent news source, he knew the story was entirely incorrect, and the writer and editors didn't understand physics. But then when he read a story about economic issues, which he personally didn't know anything about, he caught himself assuming that the article was truthful and well-informed— despite having just realized that the news source wasn't competent in its coverage!

So now we have news media sources which have been demonstrably wrong in their reporting on everything from science to medicine to international intrigue to war to terrorism to business to AI to… etc., etc.. And yet people STILL attach belief to these same sources, and treat them as truthful, objective, reliable, and accurate when all evidence shows that they are none of these things.

Here's a hint: Be careful of any reporting which takes a political tone, especially if it's a tone you agree with. It's not easy to do. "Consider the source" goes in all directions these days— and not just when discussing articles from sources you distrust or even hate. Far more insidious are the sources you personally assume are correct because they follow your personal political preferences or alignment. And I see this as a warning for myself as well as for anyone else— I know that I am willing to credit truth to a story which confirms my own bias, and am not always discerning on such things.

But that's part of the human condition— we credit what and whom we like, and discredit what and whom we dislike— and neither may well be the truth.