"What if Italy stayed neutral in WW2" Topic

"What if Mussolini kept Italy neutral in WW2 like he originally wanted playing both sides with the Allies and Germany. Without Italy in the Axis powers how would the invasion of the Soviet Union go since they probably won't delay it without needing to help Italy. After WW2 and entering the Cold War how would Italy fare in the polarizing climate and how would they handle decolonization…"

From here

link

Armand

Hmmm… It's an interesting idea.

For some reason Reddit won't let me access the link (perhaps it's the two other Reddit tabs already open in my browser). Hopefully, I'm not repeating anything from that discussion here.

Spain managed to stay "somewhat" neutral but then, Franco did not have similar territorial ambitions to Mussolini or perhaps, was not in a position to achieve them, let alone choose a side after the civil war. What if there had been an Italian Civil war and Mussolini won but at great cost?

Suppose Italy declares neutrality in or before 1939, they may decide to hold onto whatever territories they have already claimed but at the invasions of Southern France or Greece do not happen, Germany does not get dragged into Greece and can direct focus to the invasion of the Soviet Union instead. Alternatively, does Germany invade Greece anyway, to establish a base of operations in the region?

Would Germany respect Italian neutrality any more than it did Belgium's? What guarantee is there that Italian possessions in Africa would be left alone by Germany? I guess that would depend on how ignoring neutrality would achieve the goals set by Germany.

Would the Allies respect Italian neutrality if that put their African possessions at stake? Italian neutrality might take some pressure off the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean at least.

One thing is certain. What-ifs are great thought exercises…

There was a story about this in an alternate history book – basically Italy would do pretty well – likely hung onto their African possessions as long as the French did, and without a hot war waged for 3 years in their country a lot less damage and repair needed – during the Cold War they could play both sides!

A better consideration would have been What if Spain had joined the Facets alliance.

Issue at hand. Italy initiated the invasion of Greece. So that have pushed them forward Germany. Neutral Italy means no action in North or Eastern Africa.
More likely a German invasion of Italy and Albania. Invasion of Russia delayed.however a Russian invasion would lead to war.

Well my Nonno might have lived beyond 46 years old and not gotten murdered by commies and dumped into the foibes. My Aunt Elsa and Uncle Alonzo might have grown to have families and we wouldn't have lost all our land and property. Other than that – my Mum and Dad would not have met and I wouldn't be here writing this.

Why would Germany invade Italy? Just because it's what they did?

Thanks!

Armand

@Frederick – Your comment raised a question on resistance groups in Italy, particularly communists. I wonder if they were even viable. After all, there would have been little to no support from the Allies via SOE or OSS, the Soviets would not be able to fill that void and the Italian government would have spare resources to deal with resistance.

@TimePortal – That was on my mind too. The Spanish escape route for downed airmen and the resistance would be gone but if Italy was neutral would that be as easy or harder?

@WoolshedWargamer – I'm sorry to hear that. Conflicts often lead to strange twists of fate. Sometimes, bad, sometimes good.

A while back I was involved in an oral history project and one of the stories that stuck with me was a young RAN lieutenant on a destroyer that met his future wife after rescuing her from a boat that had been torpedoed.
The professor who taught me photography back in the 80's was German Jew who fled to the UK, got detained as an enemy alien, sent to Australia on the HMT Dunera in 1940 and interned until 1941. He stayed on after the war, became a successful fashion photographer in the 60's and his images are now in the collection of the National Gallery.

@JohntheOFM – I figure that if Germany cannot influence Italy to join them, they would need some other reason, like control of the Mediterranean from Italian ports or airfields. I'm mindful that Germany shared a border with Italy via Austria, so they had a way in.

I wish I could remember where I read it, but I recall a story where well before Italy entered the war, Hitler asked one of his generals "What's the impact if Italy enters the war"? The general said "We'll need 4 divisions to hold the passes between us." Hitler looked at him, and said "No, on our side." The general replied "Then we'll need 15 divisions to give them some backbone."

If Italy stays neutral and doesn't invade Greece then Churchill's whole Mediterranean strategy and the 'soft underbelly' wouldn't exist. Italy becomes a very useful buffer for Hitler, actually.

Thanks also…

Armand

Just ordered the Paper War issue with Operation Isabella which cover Spain in WW2.

A fascinating topic that I've never read up on before -- wow, so many variables at play. The war would have played out so very differently without Italy as a player.

Now, Spain was always very reluctant to enter the war because it was so broken by the Civil War and had small ambitions compared to Italy … Franco played his weak hand very well. He stayed out of the mischief, sacrificed a few die-hards in the Blue Division, but never antagonized the Allies enough to threaten his position.

If Spain had joined the Allies at a convenient time -- say, late 1943 – it would have caused a lot of problems for Germany, I'm thinking, but could Germany have done much about it by then?

If Spain entered the war in 1940 as Hitler desired, I don't think it could have ended well for Franco, and probably only caused the Allies minor inconvenience.

What do you think?

There was also a regime change in Yugoslavia that supposedly delayed the German invasion of Russia somewhat, although I suspect that weather would not have allowed it much earlier.

@ScottWashburn – Totally agree, the whole idea of a opening a second front in Italy to placate Stalin is ruined unless the Allies can find a viable alternative. Then there is the question of what happens in the rest of the Balkans. Does Germany need to get involved there? What do they gain by doing so? If they choose to leave the region alone, do Bulgaria or Hungary decide to get involved or perhaps the Soviets support pro communist forces in the region for an uprising?

@piper909 – I can't claim to have looked at material on Franco during this period in any detail, so I'm going out on a limb when I say that Franco's main goal was self preservation. By remaining neutral, the Nationalist Junta could focus on maintaining control within Spain. After all, the civil war had only ended in early 1939. Another what-if is that the Nationalists secured victory 5 years earlier and are in better shape to join the Axis. Inversely, if the Republicans won out 5 years earlier, perhaps Spain would be more aligned with the allied cause.

There is the small matter of Gibraltar, an allied possession right on Spain's doorstep. I'm not sure if the British could hold it if Spain was not neutral.

How neutral and starting when?

None of the European powers knew Italy's true military potential until Italy actually started fighting. Before that it was a nation with a lot of troops, a lot of tanks, a lot of planes and a lot of ships. It is run by a leader who has shown a willingness to act unilaterally. If Italy wasn't somewhat friendly towards Nazi Germany in the 1938-40 time frame Hitler would need to take Italian intervention into consideration in his plans.

After France falls Italy becomes less of a factor. The failure to intervene in Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland and then the French campaign would have sent Hitler a message that he did not need to worry about Italian intervention.

The campaigns in North Africa, Silicy, and Italy were where the US Army learned how to fight. If Italy stayed neutral, those campaigns never would have happened, and no one in the US army would have seen the elephant. The green troops of Kasserine Pass would have been the green troops of Omaha Beach… with General Fredendall commanding them.

The transformation from green to experienced would have happened some where. Earlier invasion of France. OrNorway or Low Countries.

Good points, Cke1st and TimePortal. Without an active Mediterranean theatre, for want of an alternative, would the Anglo-Allies attempt a cross-Channel invasion in 1942 or 1943? And would it have met with disaster? This was a huge strategic problem for Churchill in particular, since before 1944 the British would have had to bear the brunt of the logistics and manpower, and he didn't feel that Britain was up to it on its own.

An early invasion failure akin to the glorified raid of Dieppe could have drawn out the war considerable -- or left the Soviets in a position to advance across Germany and up to (over?) the Rhine before the British and Americans could get into France themselves.

I would expect earlier invasion would have had severe losses. However that would have been the only American and British focus. So an overwhelming effort seems possible.

@Bill N –

"How neutral and starting when?"

Sorry, it's late here and I want to make sure you meant Italy. Please let me know if I got that wrong!

It's a great question. For the how, perhaps Italy would have mimicked Spain? I suspect that like Spain, a neutral Italy would be more biased towards the remaining Axis powers. As to when, I think that can happen before 1939 provided Mussolini is happy to try and preserve any territory gains and copy Franco. Alternatively he could declare neutrality at the outbreak of war in the West, as part of a wait and see who wins approach.

To be fair, there was a preview of Italy's potential during the Spanish Civil War. Mussolini provided tanks, artillery, machine guns, volunteer troops and air support to the Nationalists.

Before that, the Italians were active in Africa, invading Ethiopia and Abyssinia. Admittedly, these countries were in no position to oppose the Italian forces, so not really a test of capability for future conflicts.

I was surprised to learn that Germany supplied arms to the Ethiopians during that conflict because Mussolini opposed the annexation of Austria. There was a pact in place between Italy and Austria and Italy considered Austria to be within it's sphere of influence. Mussolini was eventually pressured to reneg on the arrangement and concede Austria to Germany.

So we have another what-if. Italy honours the pact with Austria and defies Germany. Germany goes head to head with Austria/Italy in 1938. Germany is denied use of Italian ports in Africa and so on…

I agree with you that Hitler would not necessarily see Italy as a problem, provided it remained neutral.