"Iranian plan to assassinate Donald Trump" Topic

So would the President Elect have the right for immediate retaliation on Iran and the Iranian government on day one in office?

iMHO based on this and everything else they have done in the last 10 years.. yes.

I believe the current administration should. They won't, but the justification is there in spades. ♠️

"According to court documents, Iranian officials asked one of the men charged, Farhad Shakeri, in September to focus on surveilling and ultimately assassinating Trump. Shakeri is still at large in Iran, the Justice Department said.

This is a newly disclosed plot and marks yet another alleged attempt on Trump's life by the Iranian regime."

Subject: DOJ charges three in Iranian plot to kill Donald Trump | CNN Politics


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Subject: 3 charged in Iran-linked plot to assassinate Donald Trump as revenge for killing Qassem Soleimani: DOJ – ABC News


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Subject: Iranian asset charged in plot to assassinate Trump, DOJ says | Fox News


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Do you retaliate for a foiled plan?

Had it succeeded, POTUS would have no choice but to retaliate.
Just planning is one thing. A shot and a graze … 🙄, so much room for a conspiracy theory there.
But a successful hit demands a full out tech assisted retaliation.

"Do you retaliate for a foiled plan?"

🤔

No… you retaliate for a foiled plan, another foiled plan, more plans, the Houthis and firing on shipping, firing on our troops with their surrogates, attacks by them, their surrogates on Israel and the killing, torture, raping and hostage taking of US citizens, the hostages taken during Carter and a long litany of other crimes they or the surrogates they supply and pay for have done. You do it before they are capable of using nukes and before they have a successful assassination.

I believe we have been justified for a long time.

You can retaliate for a foiled plan as far as I am concerned. This wasn't posturing and saber rattling. I don't care what side of the aisle the intended target sits on. Stuff like this can't go unanswered.

79th +1

35th OVI

" believe the current administration should. They won't, but the justification is there in spades." Are you sure that the current administration won't, do you have some information that the rest of us do not or are you just speculating?

In reality you don't have a bunny's idea what will or will not happen.

Fitzovich…given they're trying to restrain Israel it's a fair bet the current admin won't. That isn't just speculation. Rational analysis points in that direct.

Fitzovich – 4 years and they have not done anything, so yes it's a very good bet. And as smithsco said, they have restrained Israel. Also China and other countries are heavily dependent on Iranian oil. So the odds are good, they won't.

But maybe they will pleasantly surprise me and do something decisive against the Iranians.

Frankly we should still get with the IDF and do a full out air offensive taking out more of Iran's military targets … Why … because we can …

35thOVI +1

35thOVI and Smithsco,
Thanks so much for your informative posts.

I am happy that you were able to share the information from the national security memos and the briefings that you attended at the White House. I would hate to think that you were simply offering opinion and speculation based upon our failed fourth estate that is only interested in filling airtime between ads for drugs we never knew we needed.

Really appreciate your knowledgeable insights……..

Fitz, you are most welcome 🙏

The memos and briefs were available to us in the current POTUS's garage, in boxes next to his vintage car, when he would forget to close his garage door. Seems to be happening more and more often.

Amazing what blows into the street from open boxes.

🤔

Fitovich, with all due respect, what's your problem? Both 35OVI and Smithsco followed up with the reasons for their opinions. Neither made any declaration of their inside knowledge. You're welcome to your different opinion. Lighten up, for Pete's sake.

Plus, new the POTUS will not give or even think about giving $ to Iran. He will start with heavy sanctions. Iran's economy is not doing well now. A NATO officer on CNN, just said something like; nations like Russia are a cancer on the world. They disrupt the world order … He didn't say Iran, China, N. Korea, or islamic terrorists. But I have a strong tendency to agree … They all don't seem to play well with others.

Again, Iran is trying to assassinate the POTUS elect and other members of the last Trump admin. A former USN ADM, on CNN said, in response to these assassination threats to US citizens. IRGC, and other military/C3 targets need to hit and hit hard. Again, we saw what happens with risk adverse and fear of escalation leadership and its effects our enemies. 0 = 0 …

And repeatedly saying "Don't" does not work. Our enemies know it is just like an Beware of Dog sign. They know there ani't no dawg !🐶 He is locked up in a cage and can't get out. Just a sign … is geopolitics by amateurs devoid of the reality of the actual situation.

I agree with Legion 4, the U.S. should cooperate with the IDF, both countries have interests to protect. That said, I believe that it is going to be a long time until the U.S. is trusted by the IDF, after the IDF's shared plans for a retaliatory strike on Iran were reportedly leaked. Hopefully a change of the administration will help to rebuild the trust between allies. I am concerned, however, by some of the reports about the politicization of the Pentagon brass. Hopefully, the reports are wrong or exaggerated.

Yes … Peace thru Strength is nothing new … But only competent realistic dynamic leadership understands that …

Dude chill…I'm allowed an informed opinion based on observation. I don't just watch the news. I actually don't watch it at all. I do read a lot about politics and history and have a strong frame of reference for what people have done in the past as well as the patterns of behavior of the current administration. Could I be wrong? Sure. Will I be wrong? Probably not.

Best retaliation would be to repeat Israeli attack at factories producing Shaheds and whole Iran missile industrial. Everybody happy: Israel, Ukraine, NATO, budget clerks, Democrats, Republicans. Its much cheaper to destroy missiles on the ground than in the air.

An assassination attempt on a President-elect is likely a legitimate pretext for a declaration of war assuming the proof is conclusive. Revealing that proof with the understanding that it might affect a conviction of the actual minions being charged is probably worth that risk. It is also a spectacularly stupid plot on any number of levels as picking that fight be it now or January 21, 2025 has no good upside for the Iranian regime.

Politics aside, at a minimum, sending Israel added weapons be they JDAM's or F-35's tomorrow would be an immediate response with virtually no repercussions that could tie the hands of an incoming administration.

Iran directly participated in the killing of American troops in Iraq during the Bush and Obama admins. They seized an American patrol boat in international waters during the Obama admin. They attacked Saudi oil facilities in 2019 during the Trump admin. They've waged war on our allies and helped the Houthis attack shipping during the Biden admin. Trump was the only one who struck back in a meaningful way by killing Solemani. Biden bombed Iraqi militias and the Houthis. Maybe he will do the same again. Reality is that the US and Israel should launch an air and naval campaign to eliminate all Iranian air defenses and their navy. When Iran gets out of line we should then strike with impunity.

Smithsco
one might note that Israel also attacked a US ship on the high seas. link

I'm sure most of us remember that and I have always had my doubts that it was the accident they claimed it was.

But today we fight an evil common enemy , bent on the destruction of both our countries. Radical Islam at their most evil. 9/11 and 10/7 are still prominent in my thoughts.

We are allies with Britain today and they burned the White House.

Lol, Liberty incident. Story first told in an issue of Playboy iirc. Being a CIA vessels means the flag used does not matter.
We knew about this in college. No big deal. We continued to fix IDF damaged tanks at Anniston Army Depot. Many college students worked there. One of my friends job was finding body parts and putting them in a bucket.

Hell of a difference between a screw up in the Six Day War and 20+ years of Iran's activity. You know that as well as I do. I have no doubt about that. It's a poor counterpoint. Thanks for illustrating the stark difference in America's relationship with Israel and Iran. Seems to make my point for me. Much appreciated!

Timeportal…it's like the scene in Fury. That's horrifying.

And the Israelis would intentionally attack US ships because?

Iran has furnished us with casus belli after casus belli since 1979. It's not like this is new or different from, say, any of the other instances of that regime participating in or supporting the murder of innocent people.

Personally I think this is a bit mad. The Guardian's of the Status Quo trying to murder dissidents on the soil of another sovereign country? Yeah, check, there is a ton of previous there. I was reading the other day about some poor guy who got kidnapped in Qatar taken back to Iran for show trial and execution. Using crims' sounds a bit dubious.

Going after a former President / Presidential Candidate / President elect, depending on the plots timeline, sounds down-right stupid and escalatory even as revenge for Solomani – and almost certain to result in a kinetic response. Contrary to what some here probably imagine the Iranian state ain't. The IRG is though a sort of semi-detached bit and these days seems to be populated by a combo of the truly foaming at the mouth and those who are more interested in wallowing in bathtubs full of back-handed cash and therefore may be slightly different. Possibly imagining that a US strike on Iranian targets might unify the country more in the favour of the sitting regime or that it might cause significant US internal strife? Depends how far the down the rabbit hole of their own propaganda they've gone I guess.

Also can't entirely shake the idea that Iran has enough regional rivals who might like them out the way, and wouldn't be too screamish about potentially murdering Iranian dissidents to make it look good, that someone might try and set them up! We know Iranian intelligence may be comprised. I'm assuming the have FBI have more than just the evidence of the crim's on the presidential-bit. Because people like that totally wouldn't make stuff up to make it appear like they were cooperating big-time!

Interesting to see how this washes out.

Rou, another Telegraph article. I agree with them. Just giving Israel a free hand should be good enough.

Subject: Iran has declared war on the United States


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If USA attacks Iran, there would be an reaction. I mean USA has placed b-2 bombers within missile range Iran (45 km). This is not a threat, that is a target. And Iran has an antiair defense designed i China, and built i Iran. It works very well, as one can see in the satelite pictures, which you would find in the non west information stream.
Iran has a massive fleet of small boat designed to stop the Hormuz strait, and has buried their missiles and nuclear wepons deep in the mountains.
I f you want a description of a coming failure read about the US staffs wargame in 2004. Iran has and has designed their defense after that.
Good reading and try to find those satelite pictures. You will be surprised.

hornblaeser,

How did Irans impressive AA defense perform against Israel aerial assault?
Wasn't the 2004 US staff war-games 20 years ago?

I am not sure the Iranian navy would last too long in the action you describe. An Arleigh Burke destroyer can fire 20 rounds of 5 inch a minute, and has other options for surface to surface.

Yeah the Millennium Challenge wargames in the early 2000s are well known as are the lessons. Navy and Army have worked to be prepared for the boat swarms. Apaches, Cobras, Seahawks all armed with hellfires.

Yeah, the last time Iran annoyed the US enough to get a kinetic reaction out of them it ended very badly for their navy. It also seems fair to say that whatever Israel did during the last strikes Iran wasn't able to put up much of a counter. Possibly not massively surprising particularly from what we see of Iran.

YouTube link

There are other videos specifically covering more recent events.

Reminds of a joke that went around back then:

Q: How does the ayatollah view his Navy?
A: From the bottom of a glass bottomed boat.

Judging by the Israeli strikes, Iranian AAW is not particularly robust or sophisticated. I doubt the current administration or the incoming want to tie the new administration's hands with less than 80 days before inauguration, but both should, as has been suggested, remind Iran how poor their track record versus first rate militaries are by sending additional significantly sophisticated lethal weapons to Israel such as F-35's, THAD or something equally beyond their capabilities.

American bombers can be on theground in America and still within striking distance. Remember the Iraqi Wars.

Of course you retaliate.

I think retaliation is fine in this case. But I would say that the CinC still commands and that this would work better as a joint transition action so the Prez-elect has some control over what he will inherit.

Iran directly participated in the killing of American troops in Iraq during the Bush and Obama admins. They seized an American patrol boat in international waters during the Obama admin. They attacked Saudi oil facilities in 2019 during the Trump admin. They've waged war on our allies and helped the Houthis attack shipping during the Biden admin. Trump was the only one who struck back in a meaningful way by killing Solemani. Biden bombed Iraqi militias and the Houthis. Maybe he will do the same again. Reality is that the US and Israel should launch an air and naval campaign to eliminate all Iranian air defenses and their navy. When Iran gets out of line we should then strike with impunity.

Bingo !

How did Irans impressive AA defense perform against Israel aerial assault?

Demonstrating the tactic known as SEADS. The IDF AF cleared air routes taking out Iran's ADA/AAA sites/radars along those routes. I have a tendency to think the IDF AF could do a lot of damage to Iran's Military and infrastructure is they wanted to. Add US air and naval assets Iran's leadership and military may be crying in their hummus …

one might note that Israel also attacked a US ship on the high seas.

Yes we all know of "Friendly Fire" incident. IIRC the Israeli Gov't made solation payments to the families of those sailors on the Liberty. Not that is brought back the dead. But solation payments is SOP for these types of events.

And the Israelis would intentionally attack US ships because?

I'd like to say I wouldn't think so … But the truth is possibly very much classified ? FWIW – As we all know these types of events occur in the heat of battle.

McKinstry +1

The Liberty incident is a well known and documented case. It happened to be CIA controlled boat.

Sounds like Rubio is going to be Secretary of State. He is a strong supporter of Israel, so I think that would not bode well for Iran.

It happened to be CIA controlled boat.

I had heard that, but really don't know what to believe anymore?

Sounds like Rubio is going to be Secretary of State.

Good move IMO … 'nuff said …

Subject: CIA Officer Asif Rahman Charged with Leaking Classified Documents on Potential Israeli Strike Against Iran – The Yeshiva World

And this is why the deep state needs a good cleaning.

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"This town needs an enema !" – The Joker …

I think Rubio having almost no international experience or diplomatic background fits in well here. No one will have any idea about him globally.