"Raid on Kursk" Topic

The situation is very fluid. Individual soldiers reporting this and that. Reports being under or over- estimated in importance. Official russian kommuniquets which I do not trust at all and Ukrainian which keep quiet.

Sometimes old footage is being passed of as recent. Some images are photoshopped.

Wishful thinking from both sides plays a role.

But no matter what, when troops can dig in and coordinate their fighting and deploy mines the rate of advance slows alot.

Then we are back to trench warfare just like on the Eastern front.

So, maybe the Ukrainian advance have slowed down quite alot, we have no idea. But russian will not be able to oust them from Russia proper. Russia does not have the manpower or skill or hardware to drive Ukraine back.

The convoy that was wiped out had reportedly pulled to the side of the road at night to rest.

The 18-year-old boys fought steadfastly and effectively, largely thanks to them being able to hold back the Ukrainian attack until experienced troops were transferred from the front.

The Russian military command has reportedly redeployed forces from unspecified operational reserves, including additional units composed of conscripts, special forces (the Main Directorate of the General Staff of Russia, GRU), special operations forces (SOF), additional Chechen special forces unit Akhmat operating under the aegis of the Russian Ministry of Defence, as well as the 1st Army Corps of the "Donetsk People's Republic" [self-proclaimed and non-recognised quasi-state formation in Donetsk Oblast – ed.] and former servicemen of the Wagner Group to areas in Kursk Oblast.

Commanders may be resisting calls to transfer any units from other fronts. However, units that were involved in the Kharkiv fighting are reportedly being relocated – that should open up opportunities for Ukrainians there.

Ukrainian Pravda: link

The Ukrainian Forces have proven many times to be so much superior to the Russians. Just think how the situation would have changed if the US top leaders would have sent them what they need so much sooner.

Russian news reports 76,000 people evacuated from the fighting.

Ukraine reports number of Russian attacks elsewhere reduced. This may also be due to airfield strikes blowing up supplies of glide bombs…

It is not a fact that there is an urgent need to push Ukrainian troops back in the Kursk region right now. It would be much more effective to stabilize the front here and strike elsewhere. For example, by continuing to close the encirclement in the Donetsk region.
Now the Russians have an advantage, since they can use conscript forces to hold the stabilized front, since the fighting is taking place on Russian territory. And return most of the experienced troops to where the Russian offensive continues.
In addition, I wonder whether the agreement with North Korea on mutual military assistance in the event of an invasion of the territory of one of the parties will be activated… It provides for exactly this possibility.

I feel it is almost impossible to get even a remotely correct picture of what is happening.

Ukarine says nothing except a few tid bits here and there which are guaranteed "out of date" to preserve opsec.

Russian milbloggers claim this and that, russian civilians same thing. Anecdotal at best.

Official Russian "information" is so full of lies it can be totally discounted as a source of information.

I guess we just have to wait and see.

I have heard the same Bill … Looks like Ukrainian Forces are on the offensive. And the Russians again demonstrate their inability to effectively fight modern warfare.

Frankly based on many things we really can't believe much of what Putin/the Russian say. And that is nothing new …

problem will be supply lines
supply lines in ukraine were surrounded by friendlies
now the supply lines are going into russia
they are now vulnerable to russian partisans attacks
unless the locals can be persuaded to change sides against putin?

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" Russia widens evacuations to second border region after Ukraine offensive"

When "dependent only upon their own resources", the Russian Army has been historically bad with logistics, I.e. supply to troops. I have no idea about the Ukraine, but since they have recently fought on the side of the Russians, I could only assume, theirs would not be great either.

problem will be supply lines
supply lines in ukraine were surrounded by friendlies
now the supply lines are going into russia
they are now vulnerable to russian partisans attacks
unless the locals can be persuaded to change sides against putin?

I'd think the Ukrainian Forces know they have to place line of communication units to cover their advancing forces.

However, I don't think their forces have penetrated in that deeply in Russia … yet. So, their lines of communications may not be that long.

Don't think the Russians may be able to hit the flanks of the Ukrainian forces. They have taken heavy loses. Don't think they have the assets.

Don't know if Russia has that many partisans, to be effective?

General Syrski (Spelling) CinC Ukrainian forces says Ukraine controls 1000 square kilometers of Russian territory (time to brush up on metrics my American friends ;))

Trust it or not but it does not get more official than that.

In many places Ukrainanian troops are met ny Ukrainian flags and locals who applaud and welcomes them.

They are fed up with russians in "Russia proper" and the big cities who do not care for the people in the provinces.

Many provide updates where Russian troops deploy and in what strength.

Others want to take up arms against Russia.

I guess they do not feel much loyalty to mother Russia.

It will be interesting to see what percentage of people who "want to take up arms against Russia" actually do so.

"…guess they do not feel much loyalty to mother Russia…"

What?…Didn't 92% of Russians vote for Putin?…
(sarcasm)

Cuprum… immediatelyn you have to call the 666 line (report treason free line) and report those traitors!…

Armand

I've seen the video of elderly Russian women greeting Ukrainian troops and asking for a ride. The soldiers were surprised that they spoke Ukrainian, though they said they were not Ukrainian.

Hmmm … Guess many in Russia didn't vote for Putin ? There are even units of Russians fighting alongside of the Ukrainian Forces.

Amazing that Ukrainian troops are STILL advancing.

Russians building a defensive line along a highway, north of Ukrainian positions.

Russian conscripts surrendering, claim they have little to no military training.

A colonel in UAF claims more than 2000 Russians have surrendered. Some, albeit v few, wants to join the Russian legion which fights for Ukraine.

Russian conscript training is not impressive at all, mostly they are used as basically unpaid manual labor for the benefit of the commanders. This is well documented in several books by ex Russian soldiers.

Russia is keeping the pressure up on the eastern front. The attack in Kursk have not noticeably relieved the pressure on the eastern front. Less glide bomb attacks but still Russia is making gains.

Attacks in the Belgorod region have met strong Russian resistance. Artillery, drones and bombs. So not much success there. But Ukrainian attacks keep those Russians in place, pinning them.

Korenovo is still resisting the UAF, that seems to be a very tough nut to crack. They have held basically since the Ukrainian invasion.

I think Russias best chance is to try to slow the UAF down and focus on serious defensive lines quite some distance away. Trading time for space.

When autumn sets in with rain and mud and vehicles bog down I think the Russians will dig and mine like crazy.

Hopefully Im wrong and russia collapses, but I do not think that will happen.

There are claims of Russian soldiers behind the front line in Kursk region looting houses that have been left empty by the local evacuating civilians. If true, then this sounds like a rather serious morale/discipline issue. Considering the news of Russian soldiers looting around in Ukraine in spring 2022, it does not sound entirely unbelievable.

If the troops are busy looting the property of friendly civilians, rather than spending their time digging in and preparing for battle, then maybe one should not expect too much of them when the bullets start flying.

So… Russians lot their own countrymen when the Ukranians didn't … what a shame!…

Armand

From MSN : The Eastern Front

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And of course the US top leadership is concerned. That the Ukraine's advance into Mother Russia is using US weapons that they were not supposed to use on/in Putin's backyard … Some US elected & appointed officials in the WH needs to read some military history. And get schooled by US Military advisors.

Again, if the US top leadership had given all that Ukraine needed to push Russia out of their territory. Well over a year ago. Just imagine how much better Ukraine would be doing again, and again besting the Russians … As it is Russia has lost massive amounts of infantry and armor. Plus holds little ground in Ukraine.

This error by the US top leadership is as bad as their A'stn debacle. Which helped Putin to decide to invade Ukraine. As he saw the current US leadership does not have the right stuff.

So how much blood is on the top US leader's hands from both A'stan and the Ukraine-Russian War ?

Take Aways : Fear of escalation and risk aversion makes your enemy just the opposite. E.g. Chamberlin just before WWII broke out.

You must come from a place of strength, determination, fearlessness, etc. To demonstrate to your enemies that you are as tough if not tougher than they are. Again the current US top leadership demonstrated that they would rather just talk than actually do what the situation requires. I.e. giving Ukraine all they needed without foot dragging.

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Ukranian driving forward. Liberating more territory.

Russian troops are either routed or destroyed

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Kadyrovites looting in Russia. Nothing like a little looting from the country you "serve". I wonder if they truly believe in sharia as they, in that cause, should have their right hand chopped off…

More russian atrocities. A captured russian describes rape and torture.

He admits raping little boys, girls and women.

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On other news, North Korea has condemned the Ukrainian ground invasion into Russian Federation.

Curious to see whether "invasion" or "incursion" turn out to be the applicable term. They've held the ground they took for a lot longer than I would have expected for anything describable as a "raid."

They've held the ground they took for a lot longer than I would have expected for anything describable as a "raid."

If I count correctly, it is currently the 13th day of this operation. So far the Russian military response seems to have been rather limited, so the Ukrainians will probably stay for some more time.

That said, sooner or later the autumn rains will start and turn the fields to mud, making it harder for both sides to manoeuvre.

Kadyrovites looting in Russia.

They seem to be insufficently equipped for urban operations, needing to resort to fire extinguisher in their (not very succesful) attempt to force open a door.

Right, I get that- but the purpose of a raid is generally to get in (preferably using the element of surprise), destroy something, and then get out as rapidly as possible. I suppose on a strategic scale, that could be what's happening, but I would expect a raid on such a scale to have some very obvious objective- a logistical hub, or a transportation center. If that's what this is, I'm not seeing it.

Perhaps this started as a raid, and turned into something else.

Ukranian driving forward. Liberating more territory.

Russian troops are either routed or destroyed

Just change Ukrainian to German and it's 1941 again …

So far the Russian military response seems to have been rather limited, so the Ukrainians will probably stay for some more time.

The Russian are spread thin, they have to pull their heavily attrited forces from other areas. To stem the Ukrainian's offensive ops. But as we have seen the Ukranian Forces have bested the Russians in most engagements.

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Russian conscripts. Poor fellows. It describes what life is for conscripts. It was like this for 30 years ago, and 20 ys ago and 10…

According to a recent statement from president Zelensky, one of the goals of the Ukrainian operation is to create a protective buffer zone, which suggests that the Ukrainian military may be prepared to stay around for a longer period of time.

It seems that the Ukrainian forces are planning to expand this buffer zone westwards, into the area south of river Seym. The only supply routes to this area are over the couple of bridges over the river – and these very bridges the Ukrainian military has been targetting lately. The loss of these bridges makes it significantly harder to supply or reinforce the forces south of the river – or for the forces in this area to retreat (especially with their equipment). Russian engineers are apparently building pontoon bridges as replacements, but these can be even more vulnerable to attacks than the originals.

If the Ukrainian military manages to intercept the logistic routes over the river, and has sufficient reserves to exploit the situation, then they would be able to capture (*) another 500 or so square kilometers of territory, and to secure that part of the front line along the river.

(*) I don't consider word "liberate" quite appropriate in this context.

Russian conscripts

Brings to mind – The walking dead …

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Some interesting analysis on the significance of the Kursk node to the larger Russian rail and logistics network.

Some interesting analysis on the significance of the Kursk node to the larger Russian rail and logistics network.

However, the present land incursion is nowhere close to threatening the Kursk rail junction (never mind the ones farther away). So any attacks on rail infrastructure would need to rely on drones, missiles and/or sabotage teams. Ukraine has been quite adept at using drones, but they have also many other types of logistical targets in their eyes, including airfields, naval docks, oil refineries, diesel fuel dumps and so on.

Closer to the front line, it has been now confirmed that the three critical bridges over the Seym river have been taken out, so the Russian military on the southern side of the river is now reliant on pontoon bridges for their logistics (and those pontoon bridges are likely high priority targets for Ukrainian drone and missile strikes). Meanwhile, civilians trapped on the southern side of the river are being evacuated with civilian boats. In a pinch these could be also used to evacuate a lot of the remaining military personnel (but not their equipment), should any commander be brave enough to order such withdrawal.

Naturally, with the bridges blown up the Ukrainian forces are not likely to try to cross the river in that sector (if they manage to capture the ground up to the river).

Naturally, with the bridges blown up the Ukrainian forces are not likely to try to cross the river in that sector (if they manage to capture the ground up to the river).

they may have no intention to penetrate any further. At least in the sector. They may just let the Russian's attrite themselves in trying to push the Ukrainians out of Mother Russia. The Russians don't seem to do well on the offense … or much else, either.

Peculiarly, the Kremlin representatives, who have been rattling their nuclear sabres regularly since January 2022, have been rather quiet about the prospect of mushroom clouds lately. Even the response to the whole ground attack in Kursk oblast seems to be flagged as mere "counter-terrorist operation".

Putin's go to threat is he will use nukes … again … But he and his people must know that threat does not have the weight it may have once did. Regardless the US, etc. have to take that threat somewhat seriously, of course. But I'm pretty sure the MAD doctrine is still in effect.

"In addition, I wonder whether the agreement with North Korea on mutual military assistance in the event of an invasion of the territory of one of the parties will be activated…"

Are the North Korean Convoy at sight now…?

I guess you can see them from your home…

1400 km2 and growing…

Armand

Putin's slow response to Kursk attack my cost him ?

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Are the North Korean Convoy at sight now…?

It is a long drive from North Korea …

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Armand

FROM MIDDLE-EARTH TO UKRAINE, THE ENDURING VALUE OF WYLIE'S GENERAL THEORY OF POWER CONTROL

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Armand

A jump in time… deja vu of Soviet recruit soldier

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coolminiornot.com/471567

Armand

legion4
"Putin's slow response to Kursk attack my cost him"

he seems to be more interested in capturing pokrovsk major suppy route and high ground in that area .
once that is captured he may release more troops to kursk area
given ukraine says it doesnt intend to hold or advance more into kursk he has time to play with (of course that may be just misinformation aimed at putin by ukraine )?

he seems to be more interested in capturing pokrovsk major supply route and high ground in that area.

Yes, when you have a salient e.g. the Ardennes, 1944, you want to cut off the enemy forward elements in the salient. Double Envelopment is generally the tactic. Ukraine knows this, as we have seen they are more tactically capable than the Russians. The flanks of the salient must be secured and held. Can the Russians penetrate and cut off LOC to the forward units there ? Based on everything we have seen I doubt the Russians can pull it off.

once that is captured he may release more troops to kursk area

Two operations must occur and be successful, IMO.

1) The Russians have to take the high ground/penetrate the Ukrainian flank(s)

2) Then cut off Ukrainian LOCs.

To even think about doing these complex ops, the Russian must have more assets. But where do they get enough to do it ?

given ukraine says it doesnt intend to hold or advance more into kursk he has time to play with (of course that may be just misinformation aimed at putin by ukraine )?

Reports are Ukraine will hold and possibly even advance deeper into Russian territory. The Ukrainian offensive forces the Russians to thin out their lines to try and halt/blunt this penetration.

The Russians pulling some troops off the other front(s) relieving some of the attacks/pressure on the Ukrainians there. And this limits the Russian's ability to attack[or even defend] successfully on the other front(s). As they won't have the assets to do it. And again, somehow, somewhere do they get more assets to do all of this ? If they bring "fresh/Green" troops in from other locations, like we have seen in history many times before. Will these new troops be effective during ops ?

Ukraine may hold and possibly expand their penetration to use this as a bargaining chip. To trade for their lands occupied by the Russians.

Disinformation … To paraphrase Sun Tzu, "All war is a matter of deception." …