doc mcb | 21 Mar 2023 2:17 p.m. PST |
link "Writer David Goldman, who writes as the brilliant "Spengler" at Asia Times, foresees an ending of sorts to the Ukraine conflict, based on the West's inability to supply the resources to keep an extended war coming. In his latest Asia Times piece, he noted the private thinking going on of people who make up the foreign policy community: A gloomy assessment of Ukraine's prospects for victory against Russia emerged from a recent private gathering of former top US soldiers, intelligence officials and scholars with resumes reaching from the Reagan to the Trump administrations. Short of trained personnel and ammunition, one speaker argued, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky might consider a Chinese peace plan, especially after Beijing's successful mediation of the Iran-Saudi dispute. The several dozen attendees, many of whom had held cabinet or sub-cabinet positions, met under Chatham House rules, which forbid identification of individual participants but allow the content itself to be presented. |
doc mcb | 21 Mar 2023 2:17 p.m. PST |
While most participants continued to favor the Biden administration's gung-ho stance on keeping Ukraine supplied and paid until they could fight off the Russians, the numbers were not in its favor. Russia was just so much bigger than Ukraine in terms of manpower and resources and money and alliances with other big powers -- such as China and India. The small still voices came through at the end of that conference, noting that most of the Ukrainian army was dead, its best soldiers, trained by the U.S., were now war casualties. Ukrainian valor was real but Russia could nevertheless win that war based on its overwhelming resourcing, for the same reason the North won over the South during the Civil War, despite the South having many effective and motivated soldiers. |
doc mcb | 21 Mar 2023 2:21 p.m. PST |
There's much more at the link. |
Sho Boki | 21 Mar 2023 2:47 p.m. PST |
"Russia could nevertheless win that war based on its overwhelming resourcing" Someone tries to say that all white world have less ressources than one poor muscovy? "for the same reason the North won over the South during the Civil War, despite the South having many effective and motivated soldiers."
Ukraine have motivated defenders of homeland and ressources of all white world, mucovites have only numerous drunk cannon fodder and soviet stocks. |
Prince Alberts Revenge | 21 Mar 2023 3:45 p.m. PST |
It depends. Russia just held talks with Xi which will probably result in a one sided deal for the Chinese. Putin and his cronies seem to be willing to keep throwing flesh and steel into the meat-grinder to keep from losing. The steel and the flesh is getting older and less effective. Hard for me to say the side dusting off BTR-50s is "winning". The one thing I do know is that I've read a lot of analysis and opinion pieces by "experts" throughout the course of this war, the more I read the less I consider them experts. |
Fingerspitzengefuhl | 21 Mar 2023 3:47 p.m. PST |
I'm seeing the Russian army gutted, units rebuilt 3 or 4 times, this includes the bulk of the VDV and naval infantry forces, the ‘elite', but not by western standards. BTR 50 and T62 are appearing…. They have no NCO structure… Many of their staff officers are dead – who plans/writes the operational staff work? They lack modern communications. They can't logistically support operational manoeuvre. They cant concentrate. They are constrained by railway logistics They don't use pallets…… |
Legion 4 | 21 Mar 2023 4:12 p.m. PST |
Fingerspitzengfuhl +1 All of that is so true and the Russians rate somewhere like many African or Mid East armies. |
Editor in Chief Bill | 21 Mar 2023 5:47 p.m. PST |
I'm optimistic for Ukraine. If God has a side in this war, I think He is on their side. |
nickinsomerset | 22 Mar 2023 1:19 a.m. PST |
The soviets are desperately wheeling out their supporters, the internet is full of Scott Ritter and some chap Mcgreggor spewing out the soviet party line at the moment. What is currently happening on the ground shows what a pair of fools they are, Tally Ho! |
Fingerspitzengefuhl | 22 Mar 2023 5:01 a.m. PST |
I must apologise, I may have misled you all… Oryx is now reporting T-54B moving on flatcars…. |
ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa | 22 Mar 2023 5:55 a.m. PST |
Is Ukraine loosing? By all objective evidence in the public domain. No. Is Russia loosing? No, but they have yet to meet any of the of their stated strategic goals (though some of them are very woolly). And frankly it looks like it very unlikely they can anytime soon. Could Ukraine loose? Yes, if we leave them swinging. especially after Beijing's successful mediation of the Iran-Saudi dispute AFAIK China got them to re-establish formal diplomatic relations. Solve any of the underlying problems, no. Ukraine itself has T-54/55 derivatives kicking around. But then I think anyone would agree that Ukraine's armoured forces are very much a Cold War tank buffet. Russia is the country that supposedly enter this conflict with a huge modern tank fleet… |
aegiscg47 | 22 Mar 2023 6:29 a.m. PST |
While the Russians have definitely taken heavy losses, plus their air force and navy have not performed well either, I'm continuously baffled by many who think that the Ukrainian's losses aren't just as heavy. Recent reporting is that Ukraine has lost most of their best trained troops, there are serious ammunition shortages, and they're seriously short on transport to get replacements, new weapons, etc., to the front. You also aren't hearing and/or seeing much about all of the NATO artillery, HIMARS, etc., any longer probably due to most of it being destroyed. Short of NATO forces actually intervening on the battlefield, I'm not sure what options are left for Ukraine. A NATO implemented no fly zone would help Ukraine tremendously right about now. |
doc mcb | 22 Mar 2023 6:46 a.m. PST |
I am afraid aegis is correct. |
soledad | 22 Mar 2023 10:29 a.m. PST |
I do not think Ukrainian losses are nowhere as heavy as Russias. Not even close. Russia is bleeding badly and there are pictures of T55 tanks on flatbeds possibly going to Ukraine. We will find out if that is true in a few weeks. I would say we will have a definite answer within three months if Ukraines forces are depleted or not. If there has been no Ukrainian offensive within that timespan maybe Ukraine has suffered heavy losses. My money is on Ukraine have lots and lots of uncommited forces waiting for better weather before being unleashed. They are currently training on western materiel before being committed. |
Prince Alberts Revenge | 22 Mar 2023 12:53 p.m. PST |
I just saw the "winning" side is dusting off T-55s. Things must be going to plan. Yes the Ukrainians also have Slovenian upgraded M-55s but they are upgraded and we knew the armor imbalance in Russian favor at the beginning of the war. |
Andy ONeill | 22 Mar 2023 1:29 p.m. PST |
There's lots of people analysing losses for both sides. Ukrainian losses are far lower than Russian. They're doing better than the Russians. |
Prince Alberts Revenge | 22 Mar 2023 1:51 p.m. PST |
You also aren't hearing and/or seeing much about all of the NATO artillery, HIMARS, etc., any longer probably due to most of it being destroyed. I've seen imagery of M777s and some of the Polish SPGs being destroyed. I have yet to see any photographic or video evidence of HIMARS destroyed except for a few poorly made decoys (to include from Russian sources). I have seen Russians claiming to have destroyed several hundred HIMARS but those are just words. I've seen reports of HIMARS strikes as recently as a few days ago, I imagine one reason you don't hear as many incidents of big strikes is that the Russians have moved the larger HQs, hubs and caches further back and out of range. They are currently training on western materiel before being committed. Yes, something I've noticed is that alot of units with the new kit have been stationed in areas away from the front line. One brigade that had M2 Bradleys and the aforementioned M55s were north of Kyiv in a quiet sector; They were exclusively equipped with western arms and were training in combined arms. I have also not seen any of the PT-91 Twardys in action or some of the other better kit. Alot of the units in Bakhmut seem to be units that have been there a while or recently mobilized and hastily trained units. If Ukraine was in a desperate situation, I imagine we would have seen some of these units with this gear. I imagine they are husbanding these precious assets for an offensive. How that plays out or what comes after, I don't know. Neither do the "experts". |
TSD101 | 22 Mar 2023 2:41 p.m. PST |
Russia has already lost. They destroyed a generation of young men, and all the educated men with the money and means to leave have fled and won't return. Their military has been exposed as a second rate force that wouldn't last a week against frontline NATO units and their only resort is nuclear blackmail. Eastern Ukraine is a mess, they will be digging ordinance from the fields for decades and it will take a generation to rebuild those cities. Putin is an international pariah now charged with war crimes and his options are shrinking by the day. |
Legion 4 | 22 Mar 2023 3:03 p.m. PST |
There's lots of people analysing losses for both sides. Ukrainian losses are far lower than Russian. They're doing better than the Russians. I agree … Bottom line Russia hasn't taken much more territory than they did a year ago. Plus, they are taking higher losses than Ukraine. Putin's military are far from competent … Short on AFVs, mostly pushing dismounted very poorly trained Infantry in a WWI style war of attrition is not a winning strategy, IMO. Russia has a larger population, but they are losing more troops more quickly. Plus, many military age males have left the country. How long will the Russian people put up with these losses ? Many, many of their sons are not coming back … ever. They are not only KIA but MIA … Even it Xi gave Putin MBTs, IFVs, etc. it is highly unlikely the Russians would use them any better than they did a year ago. |
Prince Alberts Revenge | 22 Mar 2023 4:55 p.m. PST |
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