From the NYT Dec 16 front page:
On a frigid December night, The New York Times accompanied members of a surveillance team for the Ukrainian Army as they used a thermal sight to find enemy positions miles away. An explosion lighted up the sky as a small surveillance team for the Ukrainian Army scanned the horizon over Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine.
The job was straightforward: The small team of several men, led by an American known as Wolf, would be Ukraine's eyes on their battle for Bakhmut that night, huddling in the Soviet-style apartment and staring at the white-and-black glow of infrared images as it tried to identify Russian positions.
Link to the entire article that appeared on the front page of the NYT on Dec 16, 2022: link
The NYT team was with them for 6 hours which was a rare lull in the battle. Later that day they called in the artillery that knocked out three AFV and killed about 50 infantry. It's hard to believe the reports you hear as neither side is reporting the true causality rates. According to "Wolf" who has observation and FO teams in the area the Russians are taking about 500 causalities a day, mostly KIA because WIA are not evacuated and many die from hypothermia. From his observation at the Ukrainian causality collection points in Bakhmut, he estimates about 100 a day mostly WIA from artillery.
I've been supporting this team for 6 months and personally know some of the team members. Right now they are about a dozen members with more teams deployed along the Bakhmut front. Since there is not enough artillery to go around not every attack can be engaged, there are priorities. "Wolf's" teams have been controlling up to twenty US M777 howitzers that are mostly in defilade behind hills west of Bakhmut. On many occasions, they stopped large Russian attacks with up to 100 men and a half dozen armored vehicles killing almost all of them. That's why they've resorted to squad and platoon-sized rushes. The M777s are extremely accurate and fire a combination of impact and air-burst rounds.
The chain of command is unlike Western militaries. The Ukrainians are slow to trust Westerners. You must get to know the individual artillery battery commanders and show them what you can do. Gifts of booze and prized weapons help too. They have a limited supply of ammo and don't want to waste it. They can have rounds on a target in minutes and their fire missions are normally 3-5 rounds against a local counterattack. The M777 crews can relocate an emplaced gun in 70 seconds.
A few days ago "Wolf's" team came under White Phosphorus artillery attack and a few members suffered lung damage and have come down with pneumonia. He claims so far that in 6 months he has not lost a member of his team. The teams are on the front lines in buildings so they can get a good view of the battlefield so if they are not careful they can be spotted. He said a few weeks ago his team may have been spotted as a Russian 122mm tank round hit the room directly above them. Fortunately, no one was hurt but they did not stick around.
The Western teams do not man the trenches and rarely take part in counterattacks. The Ukrainian command does not want to waste them as they are the only ones doing effective SigInt and artillery FO using drones. The Western SigInt teams are attached to Ukrainian Special Forces and report directly to the highest level of their intel units. There are also US intel agencies involved too which should come as no surprise.
"Wolf's" job as a team leader with five other teams in the area is to take all of the SigInt and satellite data collected, analyze and sort it out, send a report to Ukrainian intel and designate priority targets for the next day. There are more targets than assets to hit them. It's not unusual for them to knock out a Russian mortar team and a few days later another one sets up in the same exact spot.
Lately, there has been some political infighting between the Western teams for personnel, missions, and assets. Evidently, some leaders are there to enhance their reputation and it has not gone well for them. A couple of teams dissolved and many joined "Wolf's" teams. His team has been able to put together their own signal capture equipment using various civilian hobby equipment and electronics from some manufacturers in the US. They have mostly raised money on their own for this. They've also built their own drone as the quadcopter drones don't have the speed and range needed to go 20km behind Russian lines.
Last week his team was in a bar and there was a known Muslim arms dealer he was checking out because he recognized him. It turns out he was a target of his Marine SigInt team 7 years ago in the Mid-east. They had called in a drone strike on him and listed him as KIA but it appears he was only wounded and lost an eye. They waited for him to go to the bathroom to finish him off but he left before that. Maybe next time. It's the Wild Wild West like that in Ukraine and people go "missing" all of the time. It's taken for granted that the Ukrainian military and intel command is infiltrated with paid Russian sympathizers and since he meets with their direct commanders the Russians are probably already aware of him and his team. He has a number of locations and "safe houses" they stay in.
Western Team Leaders are responsible for providing vehicles, food, and shelter for their team members and keeping the morale high (beer and vodka). Most of the guys admit to being "functioning alcoholics" but no booze on missions. They also accumulate their own weapons cache. It's not unusual to have 10,000+ rounds of 5.56 for their Bren 2's, grenades from various countries, RPGs, anti-tank rockets, and other goodies at their safe houses. Most get paid about $1,000 USD US per month. The field medical care is not as coordinated as Western military and there have been reports of WIA overdosing on medication
"Wolf" and a number of his team members have been propositioned by some of the local young women to bear their child even if they don't marry them. A few of them have said they'll "give it a try." He feels the "Warcation" is going to continue into April.
To get the latest status maps this is a good site to track the battle: link
The battle has been going on for over 4 months over a city with a population of about 70,000. The lines have mostly been static because whenever one side consolidates units for an attack they are spotted by drones and pounded by artillery. Much of the ground is open and too dangerous to cross. A modern version of trench warfare has developed with the constant bombardments turning the landscape into the Somme in WWI. The Russians have the advantage in numbers and ammo, and the Ukrainian's advantage is in rapid response to fire missions and accuracy.
The typical Russian attack tactic is for a group of 25-50 rush out of their trenches and go as far as they can and then dig in. These attacks may only advance 25-50 yards and may get pushed back by counterattacks. However, the Ukrainians don't have enough artillery and manpower to push all of them back so the Russians are slowly making advances by at an extremely high price. The wounded are rarely recovered and many freeze to death. It's not unlike the WWII Human Wave attacks "motivated" by NKVD troops (now the Wagner Group) behind them. Most of the offensive is run by Wagner cadres that don't participate directly and track the attacks by drones. The attacks in the north and south of Backmut have slowed and the attacks into the town from the east have intensified.
Status map Dec 27:
The goal of the Russian advance to the south of Bakhmut is to get within 1-2 km of road T0504 which is the main supply route to Bakhmut. If they do it will be under direct tank and artillery fire and the road will be cut off. Right now it is under Russian artillery observation and indirect fire. Fortunately, the fire is very inaccurate. Many of the 122mm and 152mm artillery barrels are worn out. The 152mm shells mostly penetrate deep into the ground for very little blast and shrapnel effect unless it lands on top of your underground bunker. The Russian quality control for their 120mm mortars is so bad most rounds vary from 1-3% of the intended weight. They've found shrapnel showing manufacture back to the early 1970s.
"Wolf's" team is renting a house 10 miles east of Bakhmut and commutes across T0504 running a gauntlet of artillery and mortar fire. For now, the Russians have pulled back their attacks in the south and are defilade behind some hills so the road is fairly safe but still under indirect fire.
Some "experts" say Bakhmut has no strategic value and the Russians are wasting resources on it. However, if the Russians take Bakhmut they will have two Ukrainian command and supply centers to the west within range of artillery fire and the entire sector could collapse.
All Russian advances are channeled down roads as vehicles are ineffective in the wet ground and mud. To advance out of Bakhmut there are hills and high ground the Ukrainians will be able to use to stop their advance. "Wolf's" team feels it's almost certain the Russians will eventually take Bakhmut but they have a lot of surprises in store for them when they come to town. The kind of surprises the Geneva Convention frowns upon.
Wolfhag