"Russian Military Incapable Of Operating On A Nuclear" Topic

…Battlefield

"The Russian military couldn't operate on a nuclear battlefield in its current state, despite escalating rhetoric about nuclear weapons, a think tank said.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, referenced Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov's recent comments that Russia should use low-yield nuclear weapons following its loss of the occupied city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine…"

Main page

link

Armand

Kadyrov's about as dumb as a bag of hammers. I haven't exactly seen a lot of MOPP gear distributed amongst the Chechens

Given they can just about operate on the conventional battlefield, the nuclear battlefield seems like a very bad idea. Not that they've eschewed bad ideas recently though.

If Putin does use a nuke, I think it would be against a strategic target like Kiev. The purpose would be to cut off the head of government and demoralize the people- not that either would work, necessarily, and by doing so he'd be committing a war crime and guarantee the wrath of the west.

His speech on Friday talked about Hiroshima and Nagasaki. I don't think he would have made that reference if intended just tactical bombs, and over the weekend he moved his strategic bomber force to a nuclear bomb equipped base near Finland.

Kadyrov's about as dumb as a bag of hammers.

And is bucking for a parent-of-the-year award!
link

Are they doing the maint. on their nukes ? Maint. does not seem to be their strong suit. Like many other things in the Russian Military. Which is rapidly becoming an armed mob vs. a real military. But as always never underestimate your enemy.

Saw Ret. 4 Star Army GEN Jack Kean on the news. Said that much of Putin's talk is just saber rattling for local consumption. But again, when it comes to nukes, he said we have to take it seriously. But don't overreact …

He also said, IF Russia used nukes in Ukraine. The US[maybe some others in NATO?] would retaliate with non-nuke missiles, air strikes and drones. And wipe out everything the Russians have in the Ukraine.

That makes sense …

Would Putin be stupid enough to attack NATO ? I doubt that would happen.

a real difficulty in all this is to try to interpret, understand, and predict, using logic, the actions of someone who doesn't use logic. It's hard to tell where the nationalism, greed, narcissism and posturing end and the bat-crap crazy kicks in.

"bat-crap crazy" that's not Putin, that is his act he knows that he Russia is not any longer perceived as powerful. So if he can put on his clown close then maybe he can still scar us.

Thanks.

Armand

If they do drop a bomb on Kiev, what are the chances it doesn't go off?
Should the Ukrainians then return the favor and return it to Moscow on a one way truck?

@dapeters

I have a gnawing suspicion that, while he may not be "bat-crap crazy," Putin is not himself. Putin used to always seem assured and, well, kind of affable.

It was not so long ago that he got a case of the giggles at a televised symposium when one of his agri-flunkies suggested increasing pork exports to Malaysia.

Putin is 69. Russian male life expectancy is 68.

If his doctors have put him on the clock, what does it really matter to him whether he succumbs coughing out his last everlasting in a cancer ward, or suffering an 8mm headache, or warming his face on his balcony by the light of a western nuke. He wouldn't be the first dictator to want to take his country down with him.

Let's hope there are a lot of people in the chain between giving an order and turning a key.

About 50% or so, back in the day, for Russian/Soviet nukes to work (better supposedly for later variants, but of course recent events call those numbers into question).

Ukraine should definitely nuke Moscow and Putin if they get nuked. We should loan, or lend-lease some to them given the breakdown in the treaty after they agreed to turn over their nukes.

That would/should definitely give Putin pause.

Even a dirty bomb or three, well placed in Moscow could be very devastating to the Russians and their leader.

Maintaining and replacing nuclear warheads is very expensive, and their are valuable components to steal (like tritium, as well as, obviously, plutonium, not to mention electronics), so it seems very likely that the Russian nuclear arsenal won't perform up to specs.

But, as the saying is, one nuclear explosion can ruin your whole day.

"We should loan, or lend-lease some to them"

NATO fingerprints don't even need to be on the nukes. The Ukrainians could announce after 2014 invasion in violation of the 1994 treaty they restarted their nuclear weapon program covertly.

@HMS Exeter maybe but could all be an act. If it's not then he has to worry about his own people retiring him (I am sure that also is causing stress.)

I think the Russians also have to be concerned about the consequence of their missile misfiring (In truth I don't know enough about their systems to say that's even a possibility, but given how well their tech as preformed…)

This is NOT surprising given how poorly Russia's military troops have performed.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Putin make a play for the former Baltic States, much like they've done in Eastern Ukraine. Invade, occupy, annex, and threaten use of nukes to protect them and freeze in place any and all responses, since no one wants a conflict to go nuclear.

As I've mentioned previously before on this topic, Putin is following his/my playbook on this, and I doubt NATO will take action against such a move, since they don't want to see a nuclear war in Europe.

I doubt Putin will use nukes, but are NATO/EU leaders willing to go to war to protect former Soviet/Russian provinces?

Granted, they ARE now NATO members, but I suspect they'll be sacrificed for "the greater good" should this happen.

I hope I'm wrong, but we need to strengthen defenses on the front lines in and over/around the Baltic States NOW to prevent that from occurring, in order to prevent Putin from creating another "Crimean Crisis" inside NATO territory.

Four Russian nukes will be needed to provide a greater than 90% assurance of a detonation with a 50% reliability rate. I imagine they know that too and will plan accordingly, just like the USAF did with their warheads when target planning, back during the height of the Cold War.

Kadyrov's about as dumb as a bag of hammers. I haven't exactly seen a lot of MOPP gear distributed amongst the Chechens

There is a fair distance between Donbass and Caucasus, so dropping a few tactical warheads in Luhansk might not result in serious fallout in Chechen republic. Maybe.

However, Russian citizens across the border from Luhansk might have a bit of concern if mushroom clouds start popping in the vicinity, especially if the wind happens to be coming from south-west or so.

As for the Chechen troops, I have no idea where they are currently located, though my understanding is that they are usually not seen too close to the front line – and I would not count on them hanging around for long once a mushroom cloud appears in the horizon.

Kadyrov probably would not be too glad had Grozny got tac-nuked back in the 90's.

I doubt Putin will use nukes, but are NATO/EU leaders willing to go to war to protect former Soviet/Russian provinces?

Granted, they ARE now NATO members, but I suspect they'll be sacrificed for "the greater good" should this happen.

NATO credibility (both internal and external) is based on the mutual solidarity of its members in face of external aggression. Failing to do so for any of them would effectively be the end of NATO as a defensive treaty.

"However, Russian citizens across the border from Luhansk might have a bit of concern if mushroom clouds start popping in the vicinity, especially if the wind happens to be coming from south-west or so."

Exactly while Putin maybe willing the others who prop him up may not.

"As for the Chechen troops, I have no idea where they are currently"

There going to be used to keep the Russian from running.