"Did the US just attack......." Topic

….Russia?

Very interesting analysis and connecting of dots:

link

If so, what will the Russian response be?

@stone

Check this link on TMP

Subject: [TMP] "Nord Stream Leaks Underline Gray-Zone Risks" Topic


TMP link

That's a really scary article.

That is a truly, truly stupid article. It's the dictionary definition of "motivated reasoning."

"Naturally, pro-Russian sources—including right-wing media in the United States—has a suspect. They are pushing a series of clips and statements suggesting that America did it."

"As CNN reports, the U.S. had actually warned European allies back in June that U.S. intelligence had determined there was a threat of attack against the pipelines. Of course, for the "America is always guilty" crowd, this is just another example of genuine double-naught spy twistiness.

Then there's the clip of President Joe Biden proclaiming that, should Russia invade Ukraine, "there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2 … I promise you we'll be able to do it." This clip is all over right-wing Twitter, alongside claims that it is "Biden's confession" to sabotaging the pipelines. Complete with lots of exclamation points.

And Twitter is right. Biden did have an insidious way of bringing Russia's multi-billion dollar pipeline project to a halt. He used … diplomacy. Back on Feb. 22, as the U.S. issued fresh warnings and Russian tanks gathered on the border, Germany suspended the completion of Nord Stream 2. The next day, Germany officially halted all construction. In May, a month before the U.S. issued its warning to European allies, including Germany, NBC news noted that the pipeline was "unused and abandoned." Industry analysts reported that they "never" expected the pipeline to be commissioned, and senior officials noted that there was "no other use" anticipated.

President Biden declared there would be no Nord Stream 2, and there was no Nord Stream 2. Not a single bomb was required.

So that's the case against the United States. They warned that the pipelines were vulnerable, and Biden said Nord Stream 2 would be gone if Russia invaded. Oh, and a Polish politician that not one of them had ever heard of before Tuesday made a joke. That's certainly impressive evidence."

More importantly, Gateway pundit utterly fails the "Motive" element. By cleverly eliminating numerous parties through "Means," they can ignores lots of nations and groups with motives.

And the "Means" argument is, charitably, grossly flawed. They try to make this out as an unbelievably difficult operation that only the world's most advanced militaries could pull off. It is not. There's plenty of civilian capability to place things on the bottom of the Baltic. And that's exactly what you need to do: place something next to each pipeline.

emckinney brings up a really good point. Is there a private entity someone can point to? I'll go get some popcorn.

emkinney pretty much debunked the whole silly argument and it is just that silly.

Any nation with a submarine force which has the range could do this, and all you'd need to get the range is a refueling from a surface ship.

But the fact remains that Germany is facing a real energy issue coming this winter and might have been open to caving in to the Russians.

Gateway Pundit. I did not really see how the ideas in this were based on much of anything, despite him getting the Brietbart Award for Excellence.

For all we know it could even have been Ukraine, trying to put more pressure on Europe and AUKUS for support. It could even be just shoddy construction finally giving way.

Until they send a USV or divers down to have a good look it's all just speculation. Even afterwards we won't be sure the investigators and media are telling the truth.

Hmmmmm, which leader has been cutting off energy shipments to Europe AND would benefit the most from such an attack, is a Judo blackbelt, likes to take photos of himself barechested, AND is currently conducting an undeclared war in Ukraine?

"Problem fixed… onward with the economic crippling of Europe!".

Don't feel bad, since the USA IS being economically crippled by SOARING energy, food, rent, interest, vehicle, and commercial goods prices too.

"Is there a private entity someone can point to? I'll go get some popcorn."

The current 'news' is all misdirection. There's a Bond villain involved… ;-)

Don't feel bad, since the USA IS being economically crippled by SOARING energy, food, rent, interest, vehicle, and commercial goods prices too.

So is most of the rest of the world, mate, so don't feel too picked on. I'd happily swap your fuel prices for ours ($2.209AUD/litre for 98 Octane ULP- $5.41 USD a US Gallon).

Dal Gavan, it is hard to make these points in the US. Petrol in the UK works out to about 11 bucks a gallon and inflation is worse.

The US is a long way from crippled. But we are stuck in permanent campaign mode. It's always political Ground Hog Day. We are all guilty of it now.

the fact that the German public is in the streets clamoring for the reopening of the pipeline and it appeared the German government was about to buckle

I assure you that 'fact' of yours is not the case, but it may be a 'fact' that probabably suits your case.

It smacks of Russian black propaganda for the reasons emkinney cites, except it's a far-right anti-American site. It follows the Make Sh*t Up propaganda method. The worse thing is that anti-American people will run with this and spread this crap on social media.

Hoft's so-called analysis states, "Means eliminates most suspects. Only a government with an advanced naval warfare capability could have executed the sabotage."

Not so! The damaged pipeline is approximately 270 to 320 feet down. This is not a difficult dive for military submarines of all types, and dozens of civilian submarines available through contractors or even for private purchase. That means ANYONE with the money can outright purchase a submarine that can operate at that depth.

Russia does have a motive. It would be sending a clear message to Germany, in particular, and Europe that they're not going to get Russian gas.

Hoft says, "And only the United States had this opportunity." NOT TRUE. In June the Russians conducted a military exercise in the Baltic with the, "Russian MoD saying that the exercises involved "about 60 surface warships, boats and support vessels, over 40 aircraft and helicopters, as well as up to 2,000 units of weapons, military and special equipment of the Baltic Fleet."

The Danish government also just stated that the Russians routinely operate in this area.

Hoft concludes that, "Only the United States had all three elements of a crime: means, motive, and opportunity." As shown, this is completely false.

So, the Russians and MANY others had the means. Russia has motive -- screw with Europe. And Russia had tons of opportunity.

I'd recommend we wait and see what the investigation shows. But then again, this is how propagandists get attention without waiting for any facts. Unfortunately, this line of thought is out there and already being spread around, as demonstrated on this thread.

So is most of the rest of the world, mate, so don't feel too picked on. I'd happily swap your fuel prices for ours ($2.209AUD/litre for 98 Octane ULP- $5.41 USD USD a US Gallon).

Dal, I just got back from the US. While our gas prices are bad, the cost of food in the US was appalling!

No doubt it's Russia, if we have one thing we can be sure about them: what they do is systematically stupid but always unexpected

Then there's the clip of President Joe Biden proclaiming that, should Russia invade Ukraine, "there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2 … I promise you we'll be able to do it." This clip is all over right-wing Twitter, alongside claims that it is "Biden's confession" to sabotaging the pipelines. Complete with lots of exclamation points.

And he literally said he would "blow up" the pipeline…

Not that I think he did it.

He also predicted the Russian stock market would "blow up."

G'day, Nick.

That's a surprise, mate. I remember fondly how cheap a good meal was when I was in Atlanta. Considering how much prices have risen here the US must really have been hit hard. (Even in 2019 Aussie lamb was cheaper, and better quality, in the high street butchers in Eastwood, Notts, than it was in Coles in Queanbeyan).

Very interesting debate.

1. What does Russia gain by destroying the pipe line

2. What does the US gain by destroying the pipe line.

Europe is the big loser and it will be a hard winter for my family in Germany.

Dal Gavan. Food, interest rates, inflation, utilities, it's a long, long list, mostly self inflicted. How's the Australian boarder? You had over 5 million illegals walk into Australia in the last 2 years, known and unknown? We could populate Ireland again (5,060,845 Irish population). Fentanyl Coming over your boarder in massive quantities? They making it look like skittles too? Just wanted to point out, gas is not the only issue. 😉

Oh, Did I mention the hit on 401k's? If you are not retired, no biggie. But if you are and relying on it, you are getting hit pretty hard.

"Yes, if it was only gas he says longingly." 🙂

Has Australia hit recession level yet? I am not up on things down there.
Cheers. 🙂

Shark check the link to the other thread I listed at the top of this. There are potential gains listed for both countries in articles there.

Both can gain, both can lose. Good and bad for both. There are smaller countries that Also could do both. For the Ukraine this would seem to me to be a huge win, but are they even capable of it.

The point is, there are other suspects and we know nothing.

G'day, 35th. Australia's all islands (the two main ones being a bit on the large side), with no land borders since PNG was given independence. Anyone who tried to walk here would be a tad soggy when they arrived, mate :-)

Inflation is going up faster than they thought, and rising cost of living- food, power, rent/mortgage and fuel- and interest rates are causing some pain, but we're not officially in recession yet. As someone who is retired and rely on my army pension, I am feeling the pinch a little- I haven't bought any new figures this year!

Del, yes I knew the boarder did not exist for you, (as ours does not Evidently. 😉). I was being Tongue in cheek.

Our government will not admit recession, even though all the indicators that signified a recession forever, have been met. But trust me, we are in a recession.

But you better be careful, you can never be sure when the Atlanteans may decide to migrate to dry land. 😉

Cheers

"To Russia with Love" … I'd be really surprised if the USA had anything to do with this. Again my $ is on Putin, he's moved into the realm of a Bond villain.

35th, all due respect but unemployment under 4% is not a recession indicator. Everybody who wants to work is still working.

I remember other recessions where jobs were non existent. I remember when we could only get gas on certain days and prices were astronomical. Under Reagan, interest rates were incredibly high. I bought my first house at 10.25 % near the end of his time. I remember Nixon declaring a national price freeze because inflation was so bad.

2008 was a total nightmare, with families losing their entire savings to greed and corruption. It took four years to rebuild the economy.

I think we are on the verge, but consumer spending is still solid and the dollar is the worlds strongest currency. Look at what has happened to the pound.

The pandemic disruption and the war in Ukraine are the perfect storm, historic game changers. We are far better off for now than we might have been.

Of course the issues we talk about are valid, we will always disagree on some things. We know the problems. But I am grateful for everything we still have here and there are always good things happening as well.

I agree Tortorella. I don't see a recession here in the boondocks of North Central Massachusetts, there are more jobs here than there are bodies to fill them. Across the border from me in New Hampshire a medical/water filter company is even offering a $3,000 USD signing bonus and still can't get the workers they need. Anecdotal so YMMV.

Tort on this we disagree, but that's fine. What would the world be if we all agreed? 🙂

I remember the interest rates of Carter. I was lucky enough to take on the previous owner of my first houses interest rate of 9.5 percent and felt fortunate to get it, since interest rates were so, so much higher.

I compare the current administration to Carter, and we are not even finished with year 2 yet. Interest rates and inflation are increasing monthly now. How long until we surpass Carter?

And I believe most of this is self inflicted.

They can try to spin a recession all they like, but….

"In many macroeconomics textbooks, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the GDP, according to Dawit Kebede, senior economist for the Credit Union National Association. That means, by the textbook definition, the U.S. is in a recession.Aug 1, 2022"

If you shop for groceries, you know how much higher things are today, than in 2020. Double and sometimes triple the cost.

Home interest rates As of yesterday
"30-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average interest rate for a standard 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.72%, which is a growth of 39 basis points compared to one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) Thirty-year fixed mortgages are the most frequently used loan term. A 30-year fixed mortgage will often have a greater interest rate than a 15-year fixed rate mortgage -- but also a lower monthly payment. Although you'll pay more interest over time -- you're paying off your loan over a longer timeframe -- if you're looking for a lower monthly payment, a 30-year fixed mortgage may be a good option.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 5.86%, which is an increase of 24 basis points from the same time last week. You'll definitely have a higher monthly payment with a 15-year fixed mortgage compared to a 30-year fixed mortgage, even if the interest rate and loan amount are the same. But a 15-year loan will usually be the better deal, as long as you're able to afford the monthly payments. These include typically being able to get a lower interest rate, paying off your mortgage sooner, and paying less total interest in the long run."

Compare this to 2020

"Mortgage rates have already hit historic lows. In fact, the U.S. weekly average mortgage rates were 2.99% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan; 2.54% for a 15-year fixed-rate loan; and 2.91% for a five-year adjustable-rate mortgage as of August 20, according to Freddie Mac."

As far as unemployment. I could use the tired MSM line during Republican administrations. "This does not reflect those who have just stopped looking." 😉
But I won't. I know too many people in management, from fast restaurants, through manufacturing and into high tech.
I hear the same thing:

"We cannot get anyone to work. They fill out applications and don't show up for the interview. They come in for the interview, but never respond back when we call to hire them. They show up to work, work 1 to 2 weeks and quit."

I cannot pass a business that does not have "Now hiring".

So unemployment is low, but there is a Plethora of jobs waiting to be filled.

We have 2 generations that just don't seem to want to work and are happier sponging off of mom and dad. I blame them, but I blame mom and dad too. I believe these are the same ones demanding we pay off theirs student loans.

I am not condemning them all, there are good workers out there. But there are enough lazy ones to make a huge difference. A difference I have never seen in my lifetime.

I know this has nothing to do with the pipeline, but does address the comments about gas and food prices previously.

"Don't feel bad, since the USA IS being economically crippled by SOARING energy, food, rent, interest, vehicle, and commercial goods prices too."

Have you looked at the U.K. recently? Everything is hunky-dory here.

"We have 2 generations that just don't seem to want to work and are happier sponging off of mom and dad."

And that has nothing to do with the current policies of the U.S. government.

I could explain the factors affecting all of this (like grandmas dying of COVID and pulling people out of the labor pool to provide child care), but that would take far too long.

My mortgage rate was over 10% under Bush #1 which I got down to 9 5/8 by paying 3 points and 20% down. 3 years later I refinanced to 7 1/8 while putting another 15% down so I've got to laugh at people who have to pay 2 -3% and complain about it. Interest rates were kept artificially low for quite a while by the Federal Reserve.

Subject: NATO Formally Blames Sabotage for Nord Stream Pipeline Damage – WSJ


link

"We have 2 generations that just don't seem to want to work and are happier sponging off of mom and dad."

(And that has nothing to do with the current policies of the U.S. government.)

Don't give them Covid payments. Don't pay their student loans. Don't give them any taxpayer money, If they are not paying taxes. That part IS the government.

Mommy and Daddy, kick their lazy butts out of the basement. Stop paying their insurance, car payments, college tuitions, medical care and World of Warcraft accounts. Make them get out and work.

(I could explain the factors affecting all of this (like grandmas dying of COVID and pulling people out of the labor pool to provide child care), but that would take far too long.)

Hmmm grandma providing child care? For free? Da#n and here I had to pay Day cares for my children and both of us work. But then the government did not force me to have them, so I guess that makes it my personal responsibility. "Personal Responsibility" interesting words. 🙂

link

Subject: Who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines, and how will we find out? | Washington Examiner

This article I found interesting. Who could do the investigation that everyone would trust?

link

Dapeters, they all peddle their own version of the truth and they all Perpetuate hoaxes. Yes it involves their political perspectives. What are the political views of these who decide what is right, left or center? The New York Times has not backed a Republican Presidential candidate since Dwight Eisenhower.

I found this in your Wikipedia link that was judging TGP, hilarious.

" and by CNN as a website "prone to peddling conspiracy theories".[57] In August 2019, "

Wow!! Is that the pot calling the kettle, black?
Or should I say; it would take one to know one.

I think it is the easy answer to blame the current generations for being lazy. Guess what? People have been saying that for THOUSANDS of years (I call it the "Get off mah lawn!" factor). You don't think my grandfather's generation ("the Greatest Generation") didn't complain about my father's ("Baby Boomer?"). Back then they were lazy, dirty hippies. Now those lazy, dirty hippies run the country.

Furthermore, by falling back & blaming the current generation for being lazy is an easy way to not have to take responsibility for the problems & challenges this generation has to face. As an example, I'm from GenX, & my college debt amounted to around $25,000 USD for my total college career. My daughter is going to enter college in 2 years. She wants to be a surgical nurse. She is looking at Temple. 1 year at Temple is now $30,000. USD Assuming all loans & no scholarships, she is set to accrue $120,000 USD in debt. This isn't even factoring issues like the increase in healthcare & housing costs.

And before you blame one single party or individual (which is the popular thing to do), this has been a trend that has been going on for at least the last 30 or 40 years. It is not something new, & if anyone is to take the blame, you can put is squarely on BOTH sides for not looking for a solution.

I don't think the current generation is lazy, but I think they value their time more, or want better offers for work, ones that mean they will be EQUAL or AHEAD of where their parents were, just like their parents were at least equal or ahead of theirs. The current generations may be the first in US history that are not going to be better off than their parents. But it is the easy way out to say they are just lazy, stereotype an entire generation with millions of people, without actually looking at the underlying factors that influence the situation.

Damon.

Opinions should be free – but free can also mean worthless!

The FSB must love this stuff. They don't even have to pay anyone to write it.

And that's the 90's calling they want their internet ads back! Some of them were seriously seizure inducing and garish.

Damon, I did not say all, I said there are enough of them to make a difference in the work force. That is not my opinion, that is that of management and workers I talk to. Not just in my state. Although I have seen some really bad ones lately. But I have never seen jobs not filled like today. Never. When I was a teen, we worked the KFC's, McDonalds, etc. They were starting jobs, you did not work there to make a living. Now many don't want to take those jobs. I see older workers and retirees.

Colleges are way over priced. Fight back. For one, stop sending money to your Alma mater until they start cutting costs and reducing tuitions. Fight the ridiculous cost of books. My classes changed the manuals yearly. Things don't change that fast. Also having to buy the Professors books, what a joke. Books were a first class rip off. Stay close to home, don't go to Temple. Go to a more affordable college you can commute to, I did. Work part time to defray the cost. I did that and never had to take out a loan and I never got a scholarship. I made both my kids do the same. Do your first 2 years at a community college, Cheaper and transferable. There are many ways to stay out of debt. Write your Congress people to force state run colleges to lower tuition.

You are correct, they are way over priced.

The world is going to need skilled workers too, plumbers, electricians, etc. and they are going to be more and more in demand.

You Rarely start out at the top in life. You have to work your way up. You do the dirty jobs if necessary. Too many think they should automatically live like mom and dad. I didn't. I worked my way up.

Take care

35thOVI

+5

And inflation is falling in the U.S. Look at this graph. The bars are inflation relative to 12 months before. link

That means that in June 2022, prices were 9.1% higher than they were in June 2021.

In July 2022, prices were 8.5% higher than they were in July 2021. That means that prices fell from June to July of this year.

In August 2022, prices were 8.3% higher than they were in August 2021. Prices fell for the second month in a row.

If that graph gets to zero, it doesn't mean that inflation has stopped. That would mean that prices had deflated back to 2021 levels.

"So unemployment is low, but there is a Plethora of jobs waiting to be filled."

link

Employment is back to pre-COVID levels, but there's still a demand for more workers.

People aren't sitting out the labor market because they're too lazy, unless you also believe that that was the problem when employment numbers were growing under President Trump.

You have everybody employed and low-wage businesses complain that they can't hire workers? First-world problem.

Oh, there's one complicating factor in the employment numbers. Weekly hours worked have fallen since December 2021.

By 20 minutes.

Yep, the average worker works 20 minutes less per full week.

Damon, I did not say all, I said there are enough of them to make a difference in the work force. That is not my opinion, that is that of management and workers I talk to. Not just in my state. Although I have seen some really bad ones lately. But I have never seen jobs not filled like today. Never. When I was a teen, we worked the KFC's, McDonalds, etc. They were starting jobs, you did not work there to make a living. Now many don't want to take those jobs. I see older workers and retirees.

The thing I would challenge here is the WHY are they not taking these jobs?

One point about working at McDonalds: if the job market is decent, people don't want to work at McDonalds, because it sucks & is a little embarassing. McDs has a public image issue. But speaking of my daughter, she works at Chik-fil-A in New Jersey (rather than PA, where she lives). WHy? Because the conditions are better.

I think if a company has an issue where they hire someone, & they ghost after 2 weeks, they shouldn't be complaining about the quality of the workers, but rather looking at themselves, & asking why they cannot attract quality workers? I can almost guarantee the real problem isn't lazy kids that want to sponge off their parents (even if that is the kind of employees they are getting), but rather the work culture, the pay, & that these kids have options. If the job sucks, & they pay is poor, then people are going to go elsewhere. Market effects impact labor as much as it impacts, for example, TVs.

Damon.

McK compare 2020 to now, not 2021 to 2022. That is a fair comparison. I know what the prices are here and know what they were in 2020. Maybe England is different.

I see the teens and college students around me who have never held a job in their lives. So yes, there are workers available, at least for the entry jobs. I worked part time at 16. I did yard jobs from the age of 12, doing dentist office yard work, cleaning up bank lots, delivering papers and mowing lawns. I worked dirty, crappy jobs to get through College. If I can, others can.

FYI gas had dropped since we started draining our reserves, but on Monday of this week they jumped by 35 cents.

Base line: I was better off by a long shot in 2020.

But again, this has gotten off the pipeline.

Damon,

"I think if a company has an issue where they hire someone, & they ghost after 2 weeks, they shouldn't be complaining about the quality of the workers, but rather looking at themselves, & asking why they cannot attract quality workers? I can almost guarantee the real problem isn't lazy kids that want to sponge off their parents (even if that is the kind of employees they are getting), but rather the work culture, the pay, & that these kids have options. If the job sucks, & they pay is poor, then people are going to go elsewhere. Market effects impact labor as much as it impacts, for example, TVs."

If it was 1 or 2 places, I would agree. It's not, it is every place I have talked to.

Just as one Example. One of the best funeral homes around here. They pay top dollar in the funeral business. They have told me everything I have said above. Example of something they hear in many of the interviews they have, when someone actually shows up; "I don't want to work weekends and evenings." It's the funeral business, people don't die at your convenience for Gods sake. 😂

As I said, you cannot expect to start off like Mom and Dad, (unless they are rich. 🙂). It took them years to get there.

But again, this isn't the pipeline. 😉

Dapeters, they all peddle their own version of the truth and they all Perpetuate hoaxes.

I disagree. They all have their own perspectives; the difference is whether or not it's based on facts. In the case of The Gateway Pundit, as I demonstrated above, it outright avoided facts and essentially lied.

That's the problem…we don't know how to objectively verify information or apply logic. If we can say "everyone" does it, we can paint everyone with the same brush and ignore information that doesn't agree with us. I'm not a CNN fan, and I never watch it, but to put them in the same class as The Beltway Pundit makes no sense.

"I'd happily swap your fuel prices for ours ($2.209AUD/litre for 98 Octane ULP- $5.41 USD USD a US Gallon)".

Ha!

I'm paying $5.70 USD+ for 87 Octane in California. We can't even get 98 Octane anymore, excepting perhaps for aircraft (not even sure about that).

Probably $6.00 USD or more now, since it is a few hours later.