"Nord Stream Leaks Underline Gray-Zone Risks" Topic

Damaging a neighbor's environment can be easy, cheap, and deniable.

Defense One: link

Ah yes, a kinetic yet symbolic strike against civilian infrastructures of countries not directly involved in the conflict.
More or less their own and unused, but still.

Symbolic at least for now.

Next stop: Langeled pipeline.
The British would not be amused.

Just in case you missed it in 2015:
Explosive-Laden Drone Found Near Nord Stream Pipeline

And there will be more…

Not to mention all the undersea overseas cables.

Apparently, President Biden is on record saying that if Russia invaded, the US would "blow up" the pipeline.

I don't think we did it, but it doesn't make a lot of sense for the Russians to do it either…

Since the benefit of both pipelines for Russia has obviously dropped to zero, one could understand it as a warning:
"We still have a knife at your throat, next time it could be one of your pipelines."
They love to instill fear, it's their natural modus operandi.
Even if they do not appear to be that convincing, more like opera villians lately.

It can also be easily blamed on the USA in the context of a false flag action.
The US president has already confessed in advance, didn't he?
So why not sow discord in the Western alliance?
The former Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski already implied the USA's culpability on Twitter.
I am waiting for Hungary and the upcoming Italian government to jump on the bandwagon.

And Russia doing things that don't make sense to us isn't unheard of, isn't it?

The former Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski is attention hungry and his opinion is definitely not mainstream. He is opportunist, lately he was very pro-German (even if he has USA wife) and spoke whatever was well received in Berlin (counts on EU career). He is important Polish centroleftist/liberal opposition figure and fights current Polish govt, BTW.

Polish Govt (conservative and strongly proUSA) do not accused anyone, but pointed that the day of NS sabotage was the day Poland opened Baltic Pipe (pipeline Norway->Denmark->Poland, blocked by RuSSia and Germany for 20+ years, this pipeline makes Poland today completely indpendent of Russian gas). The same day. It cannot be coincidence. "The same day" is typical Russian behaviour.

Popular opinion in Poland (mine either) is that sabotage of NS pipelines most probably is escalational Russian threat against all western pipeline/cables especially Baltic Pipe AND against Germany AND sowing dissent among Western world. Sabotage of NS 1 creates chaos and conflicts: Germany may need Russian gas via Jamal pipeline (contract expires 31 December 2022) and Poland may decline, and even if Poland will agree – RuSSia may send less gas and will accuse Poland of stealing "German" gas.
Since NS2 is not completely destroyed (while NS1 is) Germany is pressed to certificate NS2.

We do not know who did it. Maybe Greenpeace with Russian help (good opportunity to delegalize them).
Or Ukraine (but they would risk a lot, UA needs Germany and low prices of gas).
Or China.

It is very dangerous situation. Such operation is considered preludium to war.

Russia could just have turned off the taps. Easy, no potential environmental outcry against them, very little backlash if they wanted to do it.

It is, let us say, Suspicious.

So setting aside Russia and the US, who would have the most to gain? Someone mentioned to me, that even the deep state in Germany is not above suspicion.

Almost like a Good fiction novel, except this is real and dangerous.

It was the Amish obviously.

I was leaning towards The People's Front of Judea.

Cui bono?

Will be very interesting to find out who did this. My $ is the 1st usual suspect of Russia. But that would make no sense … or would it ?

Them or aliens … they have underwater bases everywhere … 🛸👽

Subject: ANALYSIS: Nord Stream Pipelines Sabotaged, and Only One Country Benefits

Sadly I have to believe the US or Russia. With the US the most to gain. Don't want to believe that and don't believe that it is a smart move with the current world situation.

Anything else I say about smart moves, will just get me in trouble.

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I doubt the US would sabotage the pipeline.

However, I fully believe it would have been Russia, sabotaging their own pipeline, in order to blame the US, create division, & create an ecological disaster in the Baltic that the surrounding countries have to now deal with. I cannot use the word that want to use for it, but it ends in uckery.

Damon.

@Garand I don't want to believe the US would. Hope you are right. Will we ever know?

the deep state in Germany

Dumb state.

I highly doubt there is a deep state in Germany, but I'm sure there is a dumb state.
Oh, and yes, there are probably still some who are on Russia's "payroll" or otherwise part of the fifth column.
But they are not part of the deep state, they are just leftover from the former, widely accepted German raison d'état, which says that people who offer us dirt-cheap energy so that we can be economic world champion in exports will not harbor any bad intentions…

"I was leaning towards The People's Front of Judea." I'm leaning more towards the Judaen People's Front suicide squad myself.

To you all. The Peoples Front of Judea are renegades. You should follow tThe Judean Peoples Front!

Heretics!

Germany deep state (specifically Wessie BND-ish pro-USA faction opposing Scholz) teoretically could destroy NS to void all mass protests of those proRussian Putin-Versteher Germans demanding cheap gas from Russia for leaving Ukraine to die.
Now there is no need to protest – there is no NS1/2 to open.
However I doubt Germany deep state would risk that or have will and coherency to do so. Germany doesnt have even single LNG terminal.

Any revenge Russian terrorist attack against Baltic Pipe will be treated by Poland as an act of war.

The US as the culprit makes no sense. We are not desperate for a diversion. And we are not going to harm the environments of NATO nations or interrupt their energy supplies during a war which Russia is now losing. The US could not supply enough gas to Europe even if we wanted to and would hurt its own economy by destabilizing the European energy market even more. Things are tough enough there.

About a month ago, Gen Jack Keene explained with maps on Fox how Russia was about to wrap up the war and would now finish off the Ukrainians. This was around the 28th of August. Carlson also said the same.

Almost the next day, the Ukranian offensive started.

We have to keep in mind the obsession with politics in America and how the media manages political campaigns and information.

IMO only the Russians have anything to gain from this diversion, crying victimhood while stirring chaos, a common authoritarian game. Blaming someone else to take the heat off themselves, divide, stoke fear and resentment.

IMO only the Russians have anything to gain from this diversion, crying victimhood while stirring chaos, a common authoritarian game. Blaming someone else to take the heat off themselves, divide, stoke fear and resentment.

Exactly. This fits with Russia's methodology ("No YOU'RE threatening Nuclear War! Not us! You're the ones committing atrocities! Not us!"). At this point, if Russia denies any involvement, I think as a rule of thumb, simply assume it was them. You'd probably be right.

Damon.

I don't know. Until definitive proof, I think the culprit is open. Although would you believe proof of any country anymore? 🙂

With the tech we have now, someone would have to have known of a vessel(s) in the area.

A few of you seem to be shifting the blame to Israel. Do you have inside information "Brian"? 😉

There really is a load of this stuff on the web and Theories as to who has the most a gain.

No matter what, if sabotage, it is a dangerous game to be playing.

Subject: Sabotage Suspected As Russian Gas Leaks From Ruptured Nord Stream Pipelines In The Baltic Sea


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1945 is 100% sure it's the Russians. That's why I find all the Suppositions interesting.

Subject: Russia's Attack on Nord Stream Pipelines Means Putin Has Truly Weaponized Energy – 19FortyFive


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The Gateway Pundit just posted a piece about which nation is probably responsible for this. I really hope they're wrong.

"Apparently, President Biden is on record saying that if Russia invaded, the US would "blow up" the pipeline."

No, no he didn't.

"Then there's the clip of President Joe Biden proclaiming that, should Russia invade Ukraine, "there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2 … I promise you we'll be able to do it." This clip is all over right-wing Twitter, alongside claims that it is "Biden's confession" to sabotaging the pipelines. Complete with lots of exclamation points.

And Twitter is right. Biden did have an insidious way of bringing Russia's multi-billion dollar pipeline project to a halt. He used … diplomacy. Back on Feb. 22, as the U.S. issued fresh warnings and Russian tanks gathered on the border, Germany suspended the completion of Nord Stream 2. The next day, Germany officially halted all construction. In May, a month before the U.S. issued its warning to European allies, including Germany, NBC news noted that the pipeline was "unused and abandoned." Industry analysts reported that they "never" expected the pipeline to be commissioned, and senior officials noted that there was "no other use" anticipated.

President Biden declared there would be no Nord Stream 2, and there was no Nord Stream 2. Not a single bomb was required."

"The Gateway Pundit just posted a piece about which nation is probably responsible for this. I really hope they're wrong."

As I mentioned in the other thread (and pasted in an explanation), the Gateway Pundit piece is deeply, deeply stupid. Not as in "I disagree," but as in, "You don't understand how logic works and your basic 'facts' are wrong."

@emckinny

I know it's easy to hit sites with "right wing" and discount them out of hand.

It looks like Nordstream2 was completed and Forbes quotes the same Biden lines. Forbes is considered "slightly right of center". You give Biden too much credit. I hope the US did NOT do it, but you can't dismiss the possibility. Also US Natural Gas does stand to benefit. There are reasons either Russia or the US would do it. There might even be a third party.

From the link I posted in this thread from Forbes:

"Nord Stream 2 had been completed in 2021 but has never been used. So how is there any gas in it to leak out? Because the operators of the line had filled it with 117 million cubic meters of gas in order to commission and test the line. As pressures rapidly decline the dramatic half-mile-wide Baltic Sea bubble show will fade.

And there is plenty of grist for the conspiracy mill—that maybe President Joe Biden had called in a hit on the pipelines. Biden, earlier this year (at a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz), threatened to "bring an end" to Nord Stream 2 if Russia invaded.
"If Russia invades—that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2," Biden said. "We will bring an end to it."
"But how will you do that exactly, since the project and control of the project is within Germany's control?" asked Andrea Shalal of Reuters.

"We will, I promise you, we'll be able to do it," said Biden."

Older February article from PBS that quotes the same lines and also names some other countries that would benefit from no Nordstream

Subject: Biden threatened to block Russia's Nord Stream 2 amid Ukraine tensions, but what is it? | PBS NewsHour


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PBS? That far-right bastion of disinformation?

@microgeorge I know. I am so ashamed. 😔

Actually I believe there are 3 potential culprits that have the capabilities, baring China somehow sneaking in. There are about 3 others who would benefit, but I don't believe they have the capabilities. But there are equal reasons for them not to do it.

Everyone has written off the possibility of accidents, so we must assume sabotage.

I am not really in any doubt that Russia did this, but we are free to make our own choices based on what we hear from our preferred sources, given we have no direct access to proof. I am not a huge Biden fan but I think he has handled the war about as well as we could have, and I remain in awe of the fact that the Ukranians and NATO exposed and have severely damaged one of our greatest adversaries. Historic times.

As for the pipeline, Biden met with Merkel well over a year ago about not issuing the permits for #2. The idea that these Biden quotes refer to a literal destruction of the pipeline is backed up nowhere I have heard of. Biden openly talking about attacking the pipeline itself with weapons is what is being presumed, not an inference I can go. Biden is said to be pretty tough at times, the WH staff calls it going "Dark Brandon". But attacking the pipeline to physically destroy it is out of character.

The case for it being the Russians seems much more like their typical play.

CNN is running this story: link

Damon.

I would much prefer the Russians be responsible. Hopefully proof can be found.

Although it is a very expensive asset to the Russians, who could just turn off various segments of the pipeline, so it doesn't make much sense for the Russians to destroy those sections of the pipeline.

If I had to speculate, my guess is that the U.S.(and maybe the UK since they've been helping to lead the charge into war) was afraid that Europe was going to strike a deal to end the war and get the natural gas flowing again. The U.S. stands to make a lot of money selling LNG to Europe and they really seem to want to prolong this proxy war for some reason. Not much else makes sense.

The Gateway Pundit also specifies the opportunity the U.S. Navy had to plant charges on the pipeline. Means, motive and capability become more convincing at this point. Please let me be wrong.

It was a Bond villain behind it… ;-)

That just might be a good theory as any … !

The Gateway Pundit article is grossly over estimating the difficulty of doing this sort of thing. The depth of the pipelines are approximately 100 meters in this area. Any nation with a submarine force or commercial ocean drilling capability could pull this off. Divers could place limpets on the pipelines, or submarines could lay mines themselves.

The USN could do this in the 1970s, it would be naďve to think other nations don't also have this capability. If you're not familiar with Ivy Bells (placing a listening device on communications cables) this is interesting. Link:
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Opinions should be free – but free can also mean worthless!

The FSB must love this stuff. They don't even have to pay anyone to write it.

And that's the 90's calling they want their internet ads back! Some of them were seriously seizure inducing and garish.

Some doubt the motive the Russia could have to destroy partially own pipelines. Some pointed that it could be to avoid paying Germany penalties for deliberated stopping gas in NS (Germany would demand compensation since Russia stopped sending gas via NS1).

I agree sabotaging NS1+2 may be bad for Russia.

But I believe it is good for Putin.

The Kremlin is not a monolith. There are many people in Moscow and St.Petersburg who lost a lot of money and – what's more important – lost privileged jetset lifestyle. Lets call them "peace faction". They dream of returning to 2018. "Peace faction" perceive Putin (and his court) as the main obstacle. They would love to remove Putin THEN exchange withdrawal to 2014 line AND gas via NS1+2 FOR reducing sanctions and return to bussiness-as-usual. Best card of "peace faction" was Nord Stream 1+2.

Putin by destroying NS1+2 has removed this card from "peace faction" hand. "Peace faction" cannot offer easy and cheap gas to Germany.

There is also rally 'round the flag effect – NS sabotage raise support for Putin, especially amongst "war faction" hiperpatriots (who are second opposition faction and probably bigger threat to Putin than "peace faction").

Hernán Cortés burnt own ships, so his people couldnt retreat.

I believe that Putin has decided to destroy (partially own) NS pipelines to escalate international situation, hit Germany, create instability in Europe but also weaken internal opposition, stabilize his desperate position and to prolong own life.

Good enough motives?

Yes, Umpapa excellent points here. If there is a peace faction, I hope we can restore it.

nah, lets just wipe out the war fraction. Recover all of Ukraine and it will take them out. Who wants idiots that kill folk for worse than no gain.

Subject: NATO Formally Blames Sabotage for Nord Stream Pipeline Damage – WSJ


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Subject: Who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines, and how will we find out? | Washington Examiner

This article I found interesting. Who could do the investigation that everyone would trust?

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Germany doing that, it is beyond laughable, it goes beyond ridiculous conspiracies to straight up bazar fantasy. The Deep state is the folks who keep talking about "the deep State". The conspiracy is right in front of you as evident of this nonsense.

The US probably did it to keep European countries from removing sanctions against Russia. The US had the assets and opportunity in the immediate area to accomplish this mission

I am pretty sure the US has no way to get enough natural gas to Europe to save the day. I believe there may be port infrastructure issues there as well. Thus the pipeline's strategic importance. Others here may know.

Luckily, Gateway Pundit is not running the investigation. If you believe in a Deep State, you may not accept any official explanation down the road anyway. So we may never agree or know.

This guy argues it was an accident:

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He makes a good case.

Good find and interesting writer. Lawdog, law enforcement vet, is the other side of Jim Wright, a good writing, clear thinking conservative to Wright's tough guy ex military liberal.

Yeah, I had not realized the explosions were 17 hours apart.