"Should Putin Be Offered A Way Out?" Topic

Could we end the war if we promised Putin a life of luxury in a country with no extradition?

I don't think so. He already is an extremely wealthy man, possibly not in good health, seeking glory before his time is up. The big problem now is the nukes. How willing is he to just end it all? How would you talk him out of it?

Maybe he uses tactical nukes to turn the tide.

This admin is not sympathetic to Putin in any way. No deals except on NATO and Ukraines terms seem possible. And Putin does not appear very likely to go for NATO/Ukraine terms.

How this ends still seems scary uncertain.

Putin already has all that and more.

I wouldn't bet on him throwing in the towel unless he gets a bullet to the head.

He sees himself as a hero of the new Russian empire and determined to be remembered as such.
There is no room in his mind for this ending in anything but some form of victory.

Just show him the door. And by door I mean window. H

He should be offered a way out of the Ukrainian conflict, but I doubt he would accept one the Ukrainians would accept.

Revolver or automatic.

I seem to remember a Twilight Zone (or like program) with a bad guy that an old man had trapped in a grain pit. The bad guy had a broken leg and the old man was about to take his grandson on a long trip and told the bad guy that there was "A way out". The bad guy ask what about the way out and just before the old man turned off the lights, he tossed a single round for the bad guy's pistol into the pit.

+1 Callsign 21 …

Russia ain't gonna be conquered. The war ends with:

-Russia disintegrating (unlikely--"There is much ruin in a nation."
-Regime overthrown by popular uprising
-Putin replaced by supporters, overall regime intact (for the moment)
-Negotiated settlement

Or, the war drags on indefinitely. Fighting had been going on since 2014, so constant, very low-level fighting is plausible.

He is a dictator. By definition they don't care about human life. If he really is ill leaning towards death, why wouldn't he use nukes? What has he personally have to lose? Or, at least, this is my concern.

Offered A Way Out?

It seems to me that there are 5th or 6th floor windows on the Grand Kremlin Palace.

Locked in a room with a revolver and one round.

+1 emckinney.

I suspect nothing will happen at least until spring. A failed Russian spring offensive will bring in my opinion Putin replaced by his supporters and overall regime intact.

When the snows fall the Ukraine offensive will slow maybe even stop.

Ukraine wants nothing less than 2014 borders restored, including Crimea back. I agree, Russia should get nothing and Ukraine should get reparations. I think Russia should give up their nukes, they make Ukraine give up their nukes and then invaded them.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

Only way out offered to Vladolf should be a game of Russian roulette with a fully loaded revolver…

I doubt he would accept it. All the dictators of the 20th century who ended their rule by exile had already been overthrown and had no other options. Its a matter of human nature.

"A way out…" As in some form of appeasement?
No.

Will he see reason?
Probably not. I'm not convinced his arrogance and worldview allow it.

IMO, the best end-scenario is Mr. Putin 'retired' by underlings and cronies sometime this winter. I don't see anything short of regime change putting a reasonable end to the conflict.

Be careful what you wish for. There's no guarantee that a Putin replacement will be any more accommodating, and I don't know if the Russian people will accept a return of Crimea to Ukraine (as much as I or anyone else might want that).

Putin is not the cause, Putin is the consequence of a deeply rooted and widespread delusional imperial, even fascist mindset in Russia.
It will not end with him.
It will end when Russian demographics no longer allow the regime an aggressive modus operandi and Russia's remaining internal colonies break free of Russia.
Chechnya, Tatarstan, Bashkiria and what not.
A more sinister reason they send minorities from all over their colonies into the bone mill is, they, the Russians, consider these people inferior, it almost borders on ethnic cleansing.
Putin and his cronies are exactly the right people to hasten Russia's end as an declining empire since 1917.

So.
No Exit.

Scary discussion of the Nuclear option:
youtu.be/kbfi3PuXfT0

The way Idi Amin and Ferdinand Marcos left their dictatorships saved a lot of innocent blood. They didn't deserve to retire in luxury, but if seeing they get justice requires more months of war and thousands of people dying, they can get their justice in the next life. If the occasion presents itself, sure, let Putin escape to enjoy his billions anywhere else, let Russia have whatever kind of elections they can manage and start paying reparations.

Giving guys like him a way out is one of the very, very few times I would choose expediency over what's right. If it were a bunch of soldiers choosing to fight to put him down like a dog that would be one thing, but it's innocent people with no choice who are dying, and it's more months before the rebuilding can begin.

But I don't imagine that's feasible here, though. Not unless Russia rises up against him, and currently the people who should be doing that are fleeing the country rather than cleaning house.

It seems to me that there are 5th or 6th floor windows on the Grand Kremlin Palace.

He'd bounce more from higher floors or the roof …

Just say'n …

"saved a lot of innocent blood".

I was thinking the same thing and possibly averting him using nuclear weapons. If he is as sick as some reports imply, he might have a couple years left to live anyway. Let his final moments be a realization he has written himself into the history books as an idiot for time and eternity.

+1 Andrew and Tgerritsen. Give him no option out and he might just fire off the rockets to all and any who he feels like. What would he care if he was dead at the end anyway? Lots of talking heads are making statements as if they know for sure what he'll do and that's a dangerous assumption.

If he uses a Nuke, he have no where to go. Even his ardent allies in Xi and Modhi will avoid him like the plague. Russia will become a Pariah state.

If anyone could take him out it is the fictional Grey Man. He hang glides into the Kremlin at night all the way from Poland, lands on a roof wearing chimney camo and a suppressed Blaser R93 disguised as a lightning rod. He then waits for days until Putin takes a walk on the grounds, takes his shot, escapes to Germany via a man ballon.
The Putin cronies blame each other and all die in a shootout. Russia holds a referendum, votes overwhelmingly to become part of Ukraine and Zelensky takes over.

I dream of these things daily.

"Snake Pliskin … I thought you were dead ?!?" …

Yes! I forgot about Snake! I wonder what kind of shape he is in today?

This thread assumes he wants a way out ……

I hope the FSB and GRU would take him out before allowing him to use nukes. Sadly, Russian military doctrine delegates authority to use tactical nukes to the theater commander, who is currently Gen. Alexander Dvornikov. Dvornikov grew up in the Soviet Army and is not a nice guy. He owes his current stars to Putin, so there's a chance he might use nukes anyway or even lead a counter-coup against Moscow if Putin were deposed.

"This thread assumes he wants a way out ……"

No assumption it was a question, should we offer him one? Should we put it on the table to end the crisis, avert the use of nukes and restore food shipments to the millions facing famine and death by starvation?

I doubt Putin will agree to any such option.

Why would he, since he is doing just fine, even if his military is being destroyed in Ukraine, and embarassed on the world's stage.

"Why would he, since he is doing just fine"

Currently I agree with you but his situation could unravel quickly and evolve into something less than optimal for him. If he is not cornered he might be open to diplomacy.

Yes! I forgot about Snake! I wonder what kind of shape he is in today?

He is still doing good AFAIK.

his situation could unravel quickly and evolve into something less than optimal for him.

He has to know he is in trouble. However, he still has bodies to throw into Ukraine, even if they are below substandard. But sooner or later somethings got to give. The straws are building up on the camel's back.

I think what it will come down to weather he feels safe retiring in Russia or some place else and then I don't see every Ukrainian being happy with either.

he had a possible way out by withdrawing
now the idiot formally annexed and made ukrainian territory
part of russia he has just screwed himself

Is Putin on the way out?

link

Armand

We can only hope …

Back to the original question, I think the number of countries where Putin could safely stay without risk of extradition is a bit on the short side. Some possible candidates that come to my mind:

1.) Byelorussia: Lukashenka would no doubt be willing to host his old pal. However, without support from Putinist Russia, Lukashenka himself would not be likely to stay in power for long – and whatever regime comes after him might not have qualms about sending him to an international war crime tribunal (and that is the lucky scenario for Putin).

2.) Syria: another dictatorship that has had cosy relations with Putin and might owe him a favour. Though perhaps again not entirely stable regime to rely on.

3.) Iran: another oppressive regime that is still dealing with Russia (including selling them drones to use against Ukraine), but again long term stability cannot be guaranteed (pay attention to the current protests). Besides, when it comes to a life of luxury, quality vodka might be a bit in the short supply.

4.) China: an authoritarian regime dealing with Putin's Russia, but they seem to be in it for profit rather than principle. If Putin gets kicked out of power, they probably have zero interest in him – and having him around might provide an unwelcome example to the people that leaders can get kicked out of office.

5.) North Korea: perhaps one of the more stable dictatorships around (unfortunately), here Putin might be able to spend the rest of his natural life before the local regime collapses. However, they have already enough loonies threatening the world with nuclear missiles, so there won't be much special knowledge Vladimir will be able to offer them. Besides, taking into account the local economy, there might be issues with affording a "life of luxury" (a privilege reserved to a small leading elite elite), unless outsiders covertly offer to provide supplies in exchange for the locals keeping him around.

Any other worthwhile host countries to consider?

Saudi Arabians…. Azerbaijan… Kazajistan… Venezuela… Cuba… Nicaragua… plenty of African "countries"…

Armand

Interesting suggestions. However, I think many of those have drawbacks:

- Saudi Arabia: their hereditary monarchy seems pretty stable at the moment, and they might be able to afford plenty of luxury with all the oil money, but there are some rather severe lifestyle restrictions (such as poor availability of vodka).
- Venezuela: again possibly unstable regime, and it is challenging to have a life of luxury in a country with constant shortages of everything.
- Cuba: again an economy that might have trouble providing luxuries (or even basics, as demonstrated by recent electricity issues), though rum and cigars might be readily available. Might be too close to US for Putin's comfort, and I am not quite sure how cosy he is with actual communists these days.
- Kazakstan: they seem to have been trying to put a bit of distance with Putin regime since the beginning of the war, despite having been rather close previously. They might not be too cosy with being his retirement home.

Putin's money could stock a villa anywhere with all the items he craves as long as they are not against the law. He could also afford some decent private security.

Switzerland or Brazil are non-extradition countries according to a quick google search.

Switzerland or Brazil are non-extradition countries according to a quick google search.

Swiss Federal Office of Justice website does not seem to agree:

link

Furthermore "particularly serious crimes such as genocide, war crimes or crimes against humanity" can be prosecuted in Swiss courts regardless of where they have taken place:

link

Don't feel like digging too deep into Brazilian government sources, but they seem to be also readily extraditing people to various countries, though they may have reservation for Brazilian citizens. I would not count on the granting Putin local citizenship very easily.

Seems you have never visit or take any contact with Cuba or Venezuela…

They have plenty of luxuries… more than you can imagine… but only for the rulers or important visitors…

In my first visit to Cuba… I cannot forget that in my first breakfast at the hotel… they offered Norway Salmon (fresh)… French Roquefort (a huge piece you can carv on it)… Bulgarian quail eggs … Spanish acorn Ham … and many more… believe me … I know they were real …

In Venezuela… with some government support… you can get caviar or Kobe beef… as much as you want….

Good places to retire for bad guys as Putin…

Armand

Yes, there needs to be a way out of war. Fantasies about his miraculous demise are largely just that. Putin has stupidly staked regime survival on Ukraine, so we need to negotiate a "win" of some sort that both Russia and Ukraine will hate, but which moves the Doomsday Clock back away from midnight.

I dunno what that looks like -- let Russia keep some bits of Ukraine but then also pay off damages to Ukraine with energy/oil and cash? Let it be a UN managed "referendum" in the occupied areas, etc.? The conflict is helping nobody except the defense contractors and grifters right now.

No matter what happens … Putin will get away with war crimes unless someone kills him …