"Russian Economy Catastrophically Crippled" Topic

Russia's economy has been "catastrophically crippled" by western sanctions and the mass exodus of international companies, according to a Yale University study…

EuroNews: link

Sounds like wishful thinking to me. There is a movement to day Russia is on the ropes and we don't need to help Ukraine much more and I think this is just part of it.

Do they have 25% unemployment like the US did in the Great Depression?

Do they have 12% inflation like the US had in 1980?

Has their GDP declined 13% like the US had in 1932?

Are their people starving and eating rats?

Are Russian refugees fleeing the nation by the millions to escape the poverty like Latin America?

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

Has their GDP declined 13% like the US had in 1932?

Article says:

"Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades worth of foreign investment," write researchers at the Yale School of Management, adding that this situation has been worsened by an "unprecedented" capital and population flight.

Companies have fled but buildings, associated infrastructure and equipment remain. Likewise, employees and their experience and know-how remain. Sounds a bit like reverse nationalization.

The departed Western companies are being replaced by Chinese and Turkish ones. In addition, the export of capital from Russia is now limited by Western sanctions – and this is the best incentive to invest money inside Russia. Moreover, the property of Western companies can now be purchased much lower than their real value.
Sanctions are the best stimulus for the development of one's own economy. Look at Iran. Yes, there will be difficulties, but there is a high probability that Russia will again turn into an industrial country.
So I am personally satisfied with the sanctions …

Just change the definition of "catastrophically crippled" I think I saw something like that today in our national news……

By the way, Putin and Erdogan agreed to build a plant in Russia for the production of famous Bayraktar drones with full localization of production:

link

Unprecedented sanctions have created a new reality. It is not Russia that has become a pariah – it is again that the world has split into pieces, and the West is rapidly losing its hegemony.
The sanctions were a grave mistake, in my opinion. No one foresaw their real consequences.
And, it seems to me, it is beneficial for Russia to delay the hostilities in Ukraine, aggravating the situation described above.

link

Bayraktars? pfftt…
They are sooo April 2022.

It is, first of all, technology. That's the main thing ;)
Plus, an agreement was signed with Iran on cooperation in the field of aviation (including unmanned aerial vehicles).

All history teaches that Russians learn quickly if they are forced by necessity.

Gee, it sounds really great in Russia now thanks to the sanctions. So maybe we should just keep them going.

I do agree there is a new reality.

I'm in favor))) Let our lazy officials get their fat asses off their chairs and start working for real. Or let them come to you, "to escape the persecution of the Putin regime." But do not forget to check their money for the legality of origin)))

Likewise, employees and their experience and know-how remain.

Actually, there has been enormous brain drain as educated Russians have fled overseas. Much advantage to western employers.

Sorry Curpum 2… but I have read enough of your hackneyed phrase: "Russia learns quickly"

They quickly learned what?… not to expand by force over another country whose consequences cannot yet be defined?… militarily/quickly?… after 2 world wars?… after the embarrassment of the invasion of Ukraine… when you have to returned to your borders with your tails between your legs and resorted to terrorism against defenseless civilians in the Donbas using artillery and rockets?… "quickly" not to "invent" support from a population occupied by force as if they were happy to receive the Russians because they always "wished" to belong to Mother Russia? …"quickly" to imprison own citicens who peacefully protest for peace (including mothers with their babies)?…"quickly" not to "disappear" or "poison" political opponents…or now…civilians or Ukrainian military?…

Sorry… but imho…

Same mistakes over and over again…

And about economy sanctions… let's talk next year…

Armand

Oh sure. But I would come back to this conversation and five years later)))

And most of the facts you cited (and fakes) will also be discussed.

Cuprum

Try this article

link

Yeah!… for sure… another fake news…

Putin's New Police State

link

Armand

Just for kidding… what if you began to post here that you re against the war and that Putin is a murderer…?

How long untill they catch you and ended in Siberia?…

Armand

China is too tied to the global economy to risk helping ruzzia – On Peterson Institute for International Econonmics (PIIE)

Huawei closes stores in ruzzia – On Ria Novosti

Xiaomi, Lenovo Silently Cut Off Supplies to ruzzia, Alleges Report – On tech360.com

Export controls against ruzzia are working—with the help of China – On PIIE

-----
Ceterum censeo…
Stop them in Ukraine, send more heavy weapons.
The more dead ruzzian soldiers pile up there, the better.

And a new Lada for every ruzzian father!
YouTube link

link

No Bayraktar factory in SUSSR

By the way, Putin and Erdogan agreed to build a plant in Russia for the production of famous Bayraktar drones with full localization of production:

The article's link is to another lenta.ru article which quotes Erdogan "Putin told me that he wants to work with Baykar. He suggested setting up a plant in Russia, as was also done recently in the UAE".
So hardly agreement.

It goes on to say "At the same time, it was reported that the Turkish aircraft manufacturing company Baykar Makina had never supplied its combat drones to Russia and was not going to".

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

Of course China could be tight on cash and delay investment on the ruzzian part of their silk road 2.0 initiative…
China's Belt and Road spending in Russia drops to zero – On FinancialTimes.com

…but then, why did they expand their current engagement in Saudi Arabia with $5.5 USD billion?
Saudi Arabia received 5.5USDbln in Chinese BRI investments in H1-2022 – On Zawya.com

Since 2014, when ruzzia annexed Crimea, China's Silk Road investments in ruzzia have been well over $6 USD billion in four years (2014, 2015, 2017, and 2019) and $2 USD billion to $3 USD billion in the remaining four years. In 2021 as a whole, Iraq was the largest recipient of investment at $10.5 USD billion.

ruzzia doesn't seems to be their top priority.

Not enough. So long as Putin's Russia continues to prey on its neighbors it needs to be totally decoupled as it was during the Cold War – as does China. Bring home manufacturing, reduce tech and IP theft by China, and reduce imports and exports. China is quite open about wanting to dominate the world, I see no reason why we should fund their ambitions.

There is some major unrest in China due to the housing market. Companies would lease properties from local governments then sell houses to be built on the property. They would then take the money and buy more property and repeat. Those who invested in the new homes are now refusing to make mortgage payments, demanding action from the government, etc. Banks are limiting the amount of money that can be withdrawn to avoid runs on banks.
link
link

Buckmeister +1

Russia it is reported is making a whole lot of Rubles selling their oil to the PRC/CCP, India, etc. Regardless, just like some other nations[will not mention any names !], those at the top won't suffer from an economic problem. They don't buy gas, the don't buy or prep their own food, etc., etc. E.g. Went to the grocery store yesterday and was amazed at the price increases and some empty shelves … Those as the very top never see or feel any of this. Putin[ [and some other world leaders !] and his cronies won't be missing any meals, etc.

And the PRC/CCP is having some internal problems but they still if they have to will continue to support their little bro Putin. Tyrants/dictators stick together.

If you are counting on upgrading your technology by cutting deals with Iran, a nation famous for overstating their level of technology exponentially (remember the Quaher F-313? link ) you are pretty much boned.

Yes, like the Russians & PRC/CCP … you can't trust or believe much is said by Iran.

You must have really hit a nerve to get Tango to react like that!

Damon.

Let our lazy officials get their fat asses off their chairs and start working for real.

You do live in a fantasy world if you believe this.

2 Things.
I am CERTAINLY not pro Russia in this war, but…
WW2… Russia had catastrophic losses in Arms, Manpower and resources… but 'made good' and Won.

As for 'financial' effects… some valid points raised. A whole lot of 'assets' may be lost by some… but they will try to recoup by 'investments' where available…. in 'home' market, or in 'new friends'.

The effects of this war are CERTAINLY having a massive effect on costs/prices… totally out of proportion to the 'actual' effect.
But, that is what you get from relying on a 'Global Economy' and 'Trade'.

This War might be 'lost' by economics…not Won. Something to ponder?

The West will continue to progress and advance consigning Russia to the status of Mordor.

Dragon Gunner… well, Good Luck to Us! Not Russians…may they get on with lives.
But… maybe I am misreading YOU?
Russia as Mordor… NO WIN for anyone.
Please G*d… NO Rabbit Powered Sledges as arms shipments, LOL!

"was amazed at the price increases and some empty shelves … Those as the very top never see or feel any of this."

They should take warning from what happened in Sri Lanka… ;-)

@Heedless Horseman

I couldn't understand anything in your post, complete sentences would help.

Now, that is fun, German exports to ruzzia in May 2022 down to 50,9% year on year:
Pressrelease #294 from 12 July 2022 – On DeStatis.de

Of course, the sanctions.
But…
Exports of pharmaceutical products to ruzzia: +42.4% on May 2021

Do you bleed mother ruzzia, does it hurt mother ruzzia?

Perhaps sanctions should be extended to the medical/pharmacological field.
I presume you don't ask for quarter mother ruzzia?
You like it like that, don't you?

-----
Ceterum censeo…
Stop them in Ukraine, send more heavy weapons.
The more dead ruzzian soldiers pile up there, the better.

And a new Lada for every ruzzian father!
YouTube link

According to Cuprum2 the sanctions are the best thing that could happen to Russia…

Wow, I never would have thought that. Imagine all western companies pulling out and being replaced by more or less nothing and it is good!

Well I guess russia will prosper now that they are rid of those terrible western companies that invested a lot of money in Russia.

It shows that Russia does not need West and we do not need Russia. So good luck Russia! Have a great future without "us"!

Ha!Ha!…

Armand

@Dragon Gunner
Erm… you are right there! My Apologies.. posting in 'the early hours' is not always intelligent. lol
But… I could not make much sense of Your post, either!

I assumed that you meant to infer that Russia is to be viewed as an area populated by subhuman creatures, ruled by an all powerful Evil Tyrant?
I am not sure how West will "progress and advance" if Russia and Russians are to be regarded as such a fictional state as 'Mordor'? Putin…well OK… May he be torn to pieces by Ents.

On the other hand, you might have had a sarcastic meaning… in that the West IS 'Demonising' Russia… and you disapprove.

I was unclear as to your intent. And somewhat 'befuddled'at the time!

Pax?

@Heedless Horseman

I came of age during the Cold War and was taught that the Soviet Union was an evil empire. In the military I was taught they were our peer adversary anything else was 2nd rate. In 1989 I was surprised by the sudden collapse of the USSR by implosion. I was impressed when the Russians let the former Soviet Republics leave the USSR unmolested and of their own free will. In time I saw them possibly becoming another extension of Europe, a peaceful coexisting trading partner.

Years later I watched the Russians engage in brutal military campaigns in the former Soviet republics. I started to think maybe they have not changed at all? Maybe our NATO allies need to stop living in denial and actually spend some GDP on their militaries?

Recent events have shown Russia is very much like the Soviet Union. Putin's stated goals and desires to reconstitute the Russian empire should be alarming to any of his neighbors and the rest of Europe.

The way the Russians have carried out their military campaign is barbaric. They are not the peer adversary and clearly incompetent. The Russian military is behaving quite literally like Orcs from Lord of The Rings and deserving of the worlds contempt and disgust. Putin behaves very much like an evil dictator. I see a new evil empire on the frontier of Europe and for me it is quite easy to think of it as Mordor.

What I see happening is the West engaging in cancel culture on a world wide scale when it comes to Russia. Corporations divesting themselves from Russia as quickly as possible. Countries seeking alternatives to Russian energy sources. None of this is going to come back over night. Trade will slow and all but cease with Russia and it will be rendered a 3rd rate backwater country with an evil dictator and an Orc army (i.e. Mordor).

This is not desirable it is what is happening. I don't believe the Russian people should have to suffer because they have an evil toad for a leader. However they need to take responsibility for what they have created for themselves and the fix can only come from within.

The West will continue to advance technologically, trade will flourish and Russia will be left behind. Consigned to their fate by their own actions. I don't see anything else as being possible for a generation or two because of the way Russia has chosen to wage war. They are making themselves a giant pariah state like North Korea.

"WW2… Russia had catastrophic losses in Arms, Manpower and resources… but 'made good' and Won."

Have You heard anything about Lend Lease?

I totally agree with dragongunner. Well written.

Dragon Gunner + 1

Armand

The problem is we can't have Russia a pariah state because even if it doesn't turn to the 'far east' the 'far east' will have undue influence since it will probably become the major trading partner. Its fair too Russia's east has a lot of raw resources that are probably coveted.

Russia is currently under the heel of a rather vanilla aging dictator. China on the other hand is simultaneously developing a line crypto-expansionist nationalist political thought and propaganda that is worrying with side helpings of a truly creepy obsession with conformity and just straight up evil cultural genocide. None of which show any signs that they won't remain the the direction of travel of a very long time.

"if it doesn't turn to the 'far east' the 'far east' will have undue influence"

What can be done? The West is seeking to sever economic ties so they cannot be blackmailed when Russia misbehaves.

"vanilla aging dictator."

The problem is how long will he live? How long is too long to offset what has happened and about to happen? Will his replacement be just like him?

Dragon +1 & +1

"…The problem is how long will he live? How long is too long to offset what has happened and about to happen? Will his replacement be just like him?…"

Probably worst….

Armand

@Dragon Gunner. Thanks for an excellent post. I pretty much agree on all points.

I was non-military… but, in the 80s, I thought that some sort of 'limited' warfare with USSR was almost certain. The collapse of USSR was surprising.
However, I did not believe that Russia would never become a renewed threat… however friendly relations may have been for a while.

The loss of European Military capability is, frankly, VERY frightening. Even though Ukraine War may show Russian military as 'Incompetent', at present… that does not mean that they will stay so. Losses and failings will result in gradual improvement in Russian capabilities. Russians Learn… eventually.

What an economically 'impoverished' Russia 'May' lead to… well, Post WW1 Germany led to, what…?

In recent decades, Western eyes have been on Middle East… and, more recently, Chinese expansion. China is potentially the biggest 'threat'… but, so far… seems content to play a 'long game'. A Russia with increased reliance on China… (when, back then, they were viewed as potential 'counters'), will shift balances.

A different World. And, I think… a 'scarier' World than back in the 80s.

Dragon Gunner +1

Seems our friend Cuprum 2 tried to did what I suggest as a joke (to write against Putin)… because since that day… he disappeared as if by magic….(smile)

Armand

Cuprum2 is here, just not posting.