"How Long Can The Western Consensus On The Ukraine War Hold?" Topic

I had heard a similar number of NATO MBTs going to Ukraine. Now they just have to get there !

How to fix a howitzer: US offers help line to Ukraine troops

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Armand

Is The West Prepared To Fight An All-Out War With Russia, Regionally Or Globally?

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Is Ukraine Forcibly Conscripting Ukrainians Of Hungarian Descent In Transcarpathia?

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Ukraine's Air Force Spokesman Says Airfields Are Being Upgraded For Western Fighter Jets

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Top Aide To Ukraine President Zelensky Says Kyiv In Talks With NATO Allies About Getting Long-Range Missiles

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Armand

NATO Military Chief Says The Alliance Is "Ready" For A Direct Confrontation With Russia

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Armand

Interesting note on how we got here as the Twitter files keep coming out like bombshells. Elon Musk's Twitter releases this week about pre-purchase Twitter practices include the revelation of the "Hamilton 68" project started in 2017 after Trump's presidential win by senior Democrats and "former" FBI agents. The Hamilton 68 project created and spread *thousands* of fake stories boosting the idea of the Russian threat to the US, and promoted the now discredited Trump/Russia collusion hoax.

This does not absolve Putin of his actions -- he and he alone chose to invade and try to conquer Ukraine. This war was his choice -- but how he got to that decision point was influenced by a major US political party who on the one hand attacked Russia as a threat while simultaneously signaling weakness.

How does this impact Western resolve?

Left-wing think tank responsible for thousands of fake Russia stories: new Twitter Files

A left-wing think tank erroneously claiming to track Russian online activity was responsible for thousands of bogus stories asserting the nation's influence in US politics, according to the latest batch of Twitter Files.

The Hamilton 68 "dashboard" was the brainchild of former FBI special agent and MSNBC contributor Clint Watts and operated under the Alliance for Securing Democracy, a think tank founded in 2017 — shortly after former President Trump took office.

The ASD Advisory Council included such figures as top Clinton ally John Podesta [and Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign manager], Obama-era acting CIA Director Michael Morell, former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, and former conservative activist Bill Kristol.

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on the one hand attacked Russia as a threat while simultaneously signaling weakness.

I agree totally …

Ukraine reportedly interested by German Type 212A submarine

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France and Italy are in the final stage to supply Ukraine with SAMP/T air defense missile

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Poland confirms the supply to Ukraine of 30 PT-91 Twardy tanks

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Belgium could send former Leopard 1A5BE tanks modernized with Cockerill 3105 turret to Ukraine

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Sweden could follow Germany with the delivery of Stridsvagn 122 tanks to Ukraine

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Donors from Latvia send to Ukraine local-made quads with combat platforms and electric scooters

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Ukrainian army to receive all Estonian FH-70 155mm and D-30 122mm howitzers

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Armand

What a logistics nightmare! On the one hand, it's great that Ukraine is getting weapons systems to help fight off Russia, on the other hand where do get the spare parts and repair kit for all these AFVs and weapons systems?

US President Biden Says U.S. Will Not Be Providing F-16s To Ukraine

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M2 Bradleys Have Begun Their Voyage To The Battlefield

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Armand

Re the Belgian tanks:
Belgian buyer of Europe's spare tanks hopes they see action in Ukraine, The Guardian 31/1/23.

The Belgian government has previously baulked at the price being requested to buy back arms it had sold off cheap, with the UK government then buying them and donating them to Ukraine.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

This and the conduct of POTUS at Helsinki could have some bearing Putin's world view, no less than your conclusions about Obama, which also could use further study..along with Bush, Biden, etc.

As I have said before, if we tread close to the political line here, we cannot judge the actions of some and not others. But we need to give historians some time to reflect and study.

For a little light side reading about then-Presidential candidate Teddy Kennedy:

Ted Kennedy's Soviet Gambit

…Kennedy's message was simple. He proposed an unabashed quid pro quo. Kennedy would lend Andropov a hand in dealing with President Reagan. In return, the Soviet leader would lend the Democratic Party a hand in challenging Reagan in the 1984 presidential election. "The only real potential threats to Reagan are problems of war and peace and Soviet-American relations," the memorandum stated. "These issues, according to the senator, will without a doubt become the most important of the election campaign."

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Kinda like Obama's hot mic moment with the Russians promising "more flexibility" to Vlad on missile defense and other issues if Vlad would tone things down so he could win the 2012 election. Which Vlad apparently did, Obama won and then reneged on a defense deal with Poland which made Vlad *very happy*

And then Russia invaded Ukraine just a few years later…hmmm..wonder why "Vlad" thought he could get away with that???

Obama's hot mic moment: YouTube link

Everything stated here is factual and can be sourced.

As I have said before, if we tread close to the political line here, we cannot judge the actions of some and not others. But we need to give historians some time to reflect and study.

As historical wargamers we're all amateur historians, and we should all well know the results of appeasement and weakness. There is nothing I have stated about Obama's actions and foreign policy results that cannot be proven.

I did not say Obama did not play a role. What I was getting at was

We have to let this one go, it will play out in the future and we can take it up down the road if we are around.

As I recall, Trump's team had a multi-pronged approach to Putin that involved both carrot and stick applied on a predictable behavioral basis.

Extend carrots. If Putin acts bad, use the stick. Extend carrot. Putin acts bad, use the stick.

The Trump admin approached Putin for high level talks to discuss mutual trade and security issues. Putin was then caught having rivals assassinated, Trump then upheld sanctions on Russia and passed *more* sanctions on Russia. Trump extended an offer to get Russia back into the G7, Putin did something stupid and Trump levied more sanctions on Russia. Trump called for talks to try and settle the war in Syria, Putin rejected the talks and had a Wagner Group battalion attack a US FOB. The US wiped out the battalion.

How a 4-Hour Battle Between Russian Mercenaries and U.S. Commandos Unfolded in Syria

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The truth about the brutal four-hour battle between Russian mercenaries and US commandos in Syria
Up to 300 Russian and Syrian fighters killed in the attack

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At the same time Trump was browbeating NATO members to meet their defense obligations instead of riding on US coat tails, even threatening to leave NATO unless the contributed their agreed upon fair share. He also made defense deals with Poland and the Baltic States, released military aid to Ukraine, etc.

From The Hill – left of center DC news source:

President Trump is tougher on Russia in 18 months than Obama in eight years

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Trump also leaned on German and the Europeans to diversify their energy supplies and not be dependent on Russian oil and gas. The German US delegation laughed at Trump after he warned in his speech about the dangers of becoming dependent on Russian energy. Oopsie!

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But this carrot and stick approach was completely undermined by

So sure, let's talk about this war of mistakes and how it can end. It needs to end. It needs to end in a negotiated peace deal that leaves both sides some victory and both sides with sour grapes – because that's the only way we ultimately avoid mushroom clouds.

But I do I agree the end of the war will leave neither side happy. The US and NATO may come out on top, but we don't know what will happen. I have often said here that the leadership in DC walk the nuclear tight rope every day. Every breath POTUS takes is criticized on top of that. There is nothing harder than nuance in foreign policy, military response, diplomatic resolutions. I think we will find out this year if we have gotten this right.

It needs to end in a negotiated peace deal that leaves both sides some victory and both sides with sour grapes – because that's the only way we ultimately avoid mushroom clouds.

Why should the "victim" country end up with sour grapes? It is not as if both Russia and Ukraine share blame for this war – it is solely Russia's fault.

If we go around being afraid of "mushroom clouds," Putin wins.

Why should the "victim" country end up with sour grapes? It is not as if both Russia and Ukraine share blame for this war – it is solely Russia's fault.

Sorry, that's just reality. Short of someone internal ousting Putin, and hoping for that isn't a foreign policy, it's wishful thinking, Russia isn't going to be totally defeated. The US and Europe can send as many broken down tanks as they want to, if Putin feels his life is on the line do you really think he's going to back down? Russia hasn't mobilized their Draft, which would let them tap a pool of 15 MILLION men of military service age.

If we go around being afraid of "mushroom clouds," Putin wins.

This is not a conflict by proxy in Afghanistan, or Korea. This is a conflict on Russia's border directly involving Russian soldiers. The stakes are very very high if we continue to be casual about nuclear weapons.

You can't ignore nukes. They are the MAD assurance against external regime change and total national defeat. That's why North Korea got them. That's why Pakistan got them. That's why Israel and India got them. That's why Iran wants them.

Do we want to get to the point where Putin thinks it's all or nothing? So you want total war with a nuclear power? Is that what we're racing towards now, because we "can't let Putin win?"

Say, I have a great retro game we can all play! Classic game from Yaquinto called "Ultimatum," you can flush the bombers to the fail safe points and plan your nuke war from the safety of your kitchen table!

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SBminisguy you are writing exactly what Putin is hoping and needs to happen by playing into Russian propaganda. He is purportedly not in good health and his cronies have lost significant chunks of their wealth. The Russian aims of the war have not been accomplished some of which at this point can not be. He made Russia look feeble.

@dapeters

SBminisguy you are writing exactly what Putin is hoping and needs to happen by playing into Russian propaganda.

Sorry pal, your feeble attack on me as a Russian shill won't work. I spent the flower of my youth as a Cold Warrior, even learned Russian to understand all the better how to defeat the Soviet Union.

And guess what -- when the USSR imploded and the West won, the existential threat of the Soviets also ended. Everyone I worked with, everyone I knew who served, all felt the same way -- the past is over, the USSR is dead, and now what? We had the chance to engage Russia constructively with a new Marshall Plan and woo them to the West or turn our backs -- we turned out backs, a once in history opportunity pissed away.

Today Russia's economy is a wreck, it's a 2nd world nation with a large second-rate military run by a despot. But it no longer strides the world as a giant.

The only power projection Russia can make is at the tip of a cruise missile or ICBM. RUSSIA. HAS. NUKES.

And there's the rub, isn't it? This isn't proxy war, this is a direct war with a nuclear armed nation run by a dictator who was a KGB Officer. Do you get that?? The stakes are as high as anything, as high as they were during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

While not a formal measurement, the Doomsday Clock stands at 90 seconds to Midnight and we're all here on the TMP and in Social Media screwing around like it's a game, the outcome of which we can control.

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We can't. It's not a game. Watching videos of tanks exploding set to a pop music theme isn't serious. And we need to be serious here.

That's what I'm calling for since we've gone past the point of making Russia bleed for its attempted conquest and make it so painful they'll break off and come to the peace table -- because our moron "leaders" are in full jingoistic chest thumping mode babbling about total victory and an end to Putin.

That shuts the door on diplomacy. There's no peace table Putin will sit down at as long as our moron leaders talk regime change, war crimes trials and taking Russia's Black Sea Fleet out of action.

Or do you really see Russia surrendering to Ukraine? Do you see Russia surrendering at all? I can't see that happening.

So what's your end game, what's the goal? Do you think a NATO army is gonna march to Moscow and hang Putin for his war crimes? Is that your end goal?

Someone doesn't need to be a shill (accomplice) to say what Russia wants people to say. Sabre-rattling is done so that people will take notice and be worried by the sabre-rattling, so repeating the sabre-rattling is helpful to the sabre-rattler.

Everyone has the right to do this of course.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

@Druzhina -- what is your goal re: the war in Ukraine? How does it end?

I answered this on the other thread, SB, as you know. My opinion. I think there must be an acceptable out for Putin if we can stomach it. The nukes are there, nobody in DC forgets this, the longer we walk the tightrope the more chance there is of falling off.I am hoping this next offensive/counteroffensive will leave everyone exhausted and more ready for a deal. But who the @#$& knows?

The craziness of MAD is on Russia's mind as well. We should all be scared. But this war cannot end with Russia taking Ukraine, IMO. If it does, Putin won't even need nukes for the next time.

@Druzhina -- what is your goal re: the war in Ukraine? How does it end?

I hope it ends however the Ukrainians wish it to end.
At present that appears to be the ejection of Russian occupation, the prosecution of war criminals and the rebuilding of Ukraine.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

EU doubles to 30,000 number of Ukraine troops to train

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Armand

am hoping this next offensive/counteroffensive will leave everyone exhausted and more ready for a deal. But who the @#$& knows? The craziness of MAD is on Russia's mind as well. We should all be scared. But this war cannot end with Russia taking Ukraine, IMO. If it does, Putin won't even need nukes for the next time.

Mostly agreed, but I think Russia's military will be totally shattered by "winning" in Ukraine, and if they took it they couldn't keep in the face of prolonged, well supported insurgency operations. Russia simply can't win even if they win, so I hope, as you said, by the end of this fighting season they will be ready to cut a peace deal. If not, then we keep supporting Ukraine until they are ready to settle. But that support should be monitored and conditional as opposed to this hurried cash flinging with attendant graft and corruption we're currently doing.

SBminisguy I don't think you're a shill, I think you're a nationalist-isolationist. But you are making the same points as Putin.

"We had the chance to engage Russia constructively with a new Marshall Plan and woo them to the West or turn our backs -- we turned out backs, a once in history opportunity pissed away."

I totally agree, we should have done that, But the US does not believe in handouts (unless you have lots of lobbyist.) and it does not matter at this point anyway.

What I don't see happening is Putin quitting, sure he will agree to sit down and talk WT.. let's have a truce and as soon as the Russian can they will regroup and the war will go on. You don't seem to want to understand that he wants the whole of the Ukraine, he wants the whole of the old Soviet hemisphere, This will not stop until he is out of the picture.

No, I am not saying that the US or NATO or even the Ukrainians should push this war all the way to Moscow. I think that might be enough for the worst case scenario. But as long as west keeps giving aid to Ukraine so that they can push him out then we are actually getting out of it cheaply. Anything else and we risk OUR TEENAGERS fighting in Poland or Estonia in a couple of years. When something happens to Putin and that will be the beginning of the end of war.

SBminisguy I don't think you're a shill, I think you're a nationalist-isolationist. But you are making the same points as Putin.

If it's "isolationist" to make sure that a foreign policy action BENEFITS the USA in some define way, then sure, call me an isolationist.

But that's not what I've been saying. It's not in US' interests to let Russia get away with military conquest. It's also not in the US' interest to be in a direct Hot War with nuclear-armed Russia.

The reality is this war ends when Putin ends it -- either his regime is ended, which you cannot use as a basis for your policy, or conditions are painful enough that peace is preferable to continued war.

1. Defend Ukraine, make sure we have real oversight over the military aid with no blank checks.

2. Make Russia pay for its aggression while its attacking Ukraine, and make it painful enough to make peace an alternative.

3. Stop with the counterproductive chest thumping from our so-called leaders who shouldn't be posturing like they are. Stop talking about "in it to win it all the way," and start talking about the conditions for peace talks. Stop this senior leadership chest thumping about taking out Putin, get real, act like adults in the face of a serious crisis and again -- maneuver for the conditions of peace talks.

Btw, still looking for more contributions by the EU to defend Ukraine. The US has been footing most of the bill. If the Europeans *wanted* to they could handily fend off Russia.

*The EU has 8x the GDP of Russia
*The EU has 3x the population of Russia
*While Russia spends 3x the percent of GDP on military that the EU does, in raw dollar terms the EU now spends 3x on defense than Russia.

But then where does the money go? Does it go to salary and social engineering or on readiness and weapons? I don't know the answer, but I suspect most of their defense spending is spent on salary and social goals.

Combined they have spent slightly more than America has by the figures from last month.

The sooner the US/NATO, etc. gets the weapons to the Ukraine the sooner this will be over. One way or another.

Again, US leadership – "A Day late & a dollar short!" …

German Government Studying Diverting Green Funds To Defense Projects

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Netanyahu Says Israel Is Considering Sending Its Iron Dome Air Defense System To Ukraine

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Spain plans to supply Ukraine with up to six Leopard 2A4 tanks

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Armand

Why some EU countries in the east are still pro-Russia

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US Secretary General António Guterres Fears The World Is Headed For A 'Wider War' Over Ukraine-Russia

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Armand

Putin's Chechen warlord crony calls for Russia to invade Poland to 'denazify and demilitarise' the nation after Ukraine

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Armand

German Military Chiefs And Politicians Want a Return To Conscription

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Developers Of JAS-39 Gripen, F-15EX To Supply ‘Lethal Bombs' To Ukraine That Could Hit High-Value Targets In Russia

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Armand

US President Biden Will Travel To Poland To Mark One-Year Anniversary Of Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

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The Pentagon Wants To Develop And Use Drone Swarms To Destroy Enemy Defenses

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Hollywood did it first….

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Armand

In 2022 The U.S. Pledged Or Gave Ukraine $196 USD Billion In Military, Financial, And Humanitarian Aid

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Armand

So in one year we've sent Ukraine the equivalent of 7x-8x Russia's annual military budget, with few oversight controls. Wonder how much of the nearly HALF TRILLION $$ we've sent is making it to the front line?

How do we know that there is a problem on this? There will always be some graft and war profiteering, no one in history has solved that.

But how do we answer this question? I hope we are not talking about Congress here.

We have to keep supporting the Ukraine. If Russia takes part of the Ukraine and holds on to it in the end. That will embolden the PRC/CCP. They may attempt to take Taiwan.

The debacle of the A'stan withdrawal emboldened Putin to roll across the Ukraine border. As he Xi, Iran etc. saw what a cluster that was. They judged our leadership and even the military as not capable of such ops of that size, etc., etc.

It also appears it may have emboldened the PRC/CCP to send at least one massive spy balloon that crossed the US from West to East. Over 21 high value Military bases, etc. Including our ICBM sites, B2 and B-52, etc. bases, etc.

IMO the reason for all this is obvious …

Also, it appears the #1 European supplier of Ukraine's MBTs, AFVs, etc. is Russia. With all their abandoned, damaged but repairable, etc. MBTs, AFVs, etc. The Ukraine changes the markings and uses them against their former owners. That should be an embarrassment for the Russians. But it seems they have no shame. Or tactical effective combat skills, etc., for that matter. They have learned nothing …

I think we will always come back to this, Legion. And we disagree. If I you and I had to pick the weakest, worst president we have ever seen, I think we both know who we each would pick. And if we had to pick the most politicized media, I think we know who we would each pick.

But I think there is such a combination of factors at play, and so many are still so angry, that it just has to play out. We are moving beyond these players, such as they are. The sky has not fallen. There are younger people waiting their turn….

If there is a problem with improper handling of aid to Ukraine, we need to know.

Now is a critical time as the Ukranians absorb the weight of the Russian offensive. They are taking a lot of casualties but the Russians don't seem to be any tactically different then they were before. They will lose a lot of men and material and run out of steam, I hope. Then in the spring, with material help from all over, the Ukrainians can make one more big push, hopefully at least getting into a position where a ceasefire and talks might be possible.

Spain just pledged to send four Leopards. A drop in the bucket. How do we not see this as a symbol of resolve from a nation with so few military resources? The fastest way to end this war is not to give in.

Moldova's President Has Accused Russia Of Plotting To Overthrow The Country's Pro-EU Government

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Russia's Foreign Spy Service Says The U.S. Is Providing Support To Train Militants To Attack Russia

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Armand

Really why give money to people knowing that some succumb will make off with some off it when we can do this at home.

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And we disagree. If I you and I had to pick the weakest, worst president we have ever seen, I think we both know who we each would pick. And if we had to pick the most politicized media, I think we know who we would each pick.

Maybe … Regardless … we need to keep supporting the Ukraine. IMO that is a given.

Dutch F-35s Intercepted Two Russian Fighters And A Recon Aircraft As They Approached Polish Airspace From Russia's Kaliningrad

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French Historian: World War III Has Already Begun

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Armand

Go Dutch !!!

Yes, we may be in a de facto WWIII. But as long the Ukrainians keep fighting and Russians keep dying. The war will continue.

US Secretary of Defense details new military aid for Ukraine including tanks and air defense systems

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Rheinmetall to produce 300 000 35mm rounds for Gepard anti-aircraft tanks for Ukraine

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Last of 4 Leopard 2A4 tanks promised by Canada on the way to Ukraine

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France sends to Ukraine a first batch of 14 AMX-10RC anti-tank armored vehicles

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Eight countries agree to supply Ukraine with 75 Leopard 2A4 and 2A6 tanks

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Ukraine receives Fennek 4x4 reconnaissance armored vehicles from Germany or Netherlands

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Germany announces additional delivery of Gepard anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine

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Rheinmetall wants to deliver KF51 Panther main battle tanks to Ukraine

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Lithuania supplying Ukraine with 36 Bofors 40mm L/70 anti-aircraft guns to fight Russian Geran kamikaze drones

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Armand

That will embolden the PRC/CCP. They may attempt to take Taiwan.

Russia's war of conquest in Ukraine won't really factor into China's decision to try the same in Taiwan. China can see the strain on Western militaries, so a prolonged war that drains Western resources into Ukraine is a positive for China, leaving the US and Allies less able to support Taiwan in any meaningful way.

Good point SB. Just as pouring our resources into Ukraine is draining Russia's military. MaybeChina comes out ahead here. But our naval resources must be relatively untouched by Ukraine.

Rheinmetall wants to deliver KF51 Panther main battle tanks to Ukraine

I would like to see that. History repeats itself !

China can see the strain on Western militaries, so a prolonged war that drains Western resources into Ukraine is a positive for China, leaving the US and Allies less able to support Taiwan in any meaningful way.

Yes and that is why they may take advantage of the situation. As well as other factors, but I don't want be in the DH.

Moldova Swears In New Pro-Western Government

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Defense Secretary Austin Says The US Will Enter The Conflict If Russia Attacks Estonia

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The Long Term Fight

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Armand