"How Long Can The Western Consensus On The Ukraine War Hold?" Topic

Not WHAT but WHERE. The northernmost point must be where the Russians cannot go around. So where it must be by your opinion?

My opinion, which not worth a cup of coffee, is that South Korea's DMZ will not work in Ukraine. The border with Russia is too long, and you also have to factor in Byelorussia as a weak point you can't ignore. So maybe the 1938 Czech defenses would be a better case to review -- if it hadn't been for Czech President Benes breaking the Czech constitution and unilaterally surrendering, the Czech defensive lines would have caused the Nazis serious trouble.

The Czech defenses were designed in a series of mutually supporting bastions and "fall back" defensive lines (which you can see in this amazing interactive map)

link

The Russo-Ukraine border could see something like this -- a border with anti-tank and anti-infantry obstacles and mines, sensors and drone patrols. Then you'd have a series of interlocking fixed defenses as bastions withing mutual fire support range, layering back to a final layer of defenses, designed to funnel attacks and slow down an invader.

Like the Czechs, the strategy is to attrit the attacker and enable allies to respond with support, expeditionary forces, pressure on Russia, etc.

"And yes, facing reality, Russia will not pay for a Ukrainian DMZ -- so who will?"
Nobody asking that, we were talking about rebuilding the infrastructure destroyed by the Russians and compensation to the relatives of fallen Ukrainian heroes.

Of course, I understand that you can't say anything sensible about this and are starting to distort the meaning. :-)

You'll have to explain what you mean. You were insisting Russia will have to pay for the DMV, and in my opinion they won't. I think the Europeans should pay the primary costs and take the leading role for the DMZ and Ukrainian defense and reconstruction, and the US will support.

So you understand that your planned line can always be flanked by the Russians and therefore it will never work? And that's why you prefer to talk about building nuances.

The line and peace can only work if the northernmost point of the line is at least in Narva and Narva will be defended by Azov Brigade.

What is DMV?
The terrorist aggressor must pay not for DMZ but for the infrastructure reconstruction work, of course. Crime must not pay.
And until it is paid, the sanctions will not be eased. This is also stated in the European peace proposal.

If Russia doesn't want to pay, they don't want peace either. It's high time for Trump to switch from bullying Zelensky to convincing Putin, April 20th has also passed.

Trump in action.. at last.
youtube.com/shorts/wTQFvomTcuo

I don't think you get it -- anyways, if both sides wanna keep fighting, fine, just not with US cash. The Europeans can pick up the slack, they've been coasting long enough.

When does your deep concern about military spending on Israel begin? Or that war really deserves the cash…?

By the way… a BIG saving would be to recognize Taiwan as part of China… imagine the cash you would save there!

And while we're at it… sign an agreement with North Korea handing over South Korea… you can't imagine the amount of cash and troops that could return home and take those thousands of new jobs that are being created…

Armand

Tango01, Russians fighting for Ukraine are not mercenaries. They are traitors. And mostly they are recognized Nazis. Their leader was deprived of a Schengen visa for his Nazi activities in Europe:

link

And by the way, oddly enough, he is Jewish.

They are not people – they are Nazi trash. Not worth your attention…

"I don't think you get it"
I think vice versa.

"anyways, if both sides wanna keep fighting, fine, just not with US cash"
And this shows that you don't get it.
The Nazi aggressor attacked his victim, the victim is not interested in fighting, but the Russian Nazis want to continue fighting. Then comes the bully Trump and starts extorting money from the victim and demands surrender to the Nazis and also the surrender of property. Making false accusations that the victim himself attacked the aggressor. And now you come and explain that let the Nazi aggressors continue to organize a genocide against the Ukrainian people and against Europeans in the future, the US does not make any obstacles to it, it helps instead.

At first, everyone was excited about Trump, who promised to end the war in one day. All he had to do was make Putin lose his appetite for fighting. But Trump did the exact opposite.
_____

You hit the spot, Tango. :)
I previously outlined a timeline of Trump's betrayal plans here.

"In what order will Trump betray us all?
1. Ukraine
2. Baltics
3. Western Europe
4. Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, etc. Once chip production is moved out of Taiwan.
5. Betraying Israel is a bit more difficult
6. Freedom of the American people under a new Tsar"

Israel is on the bottom of the list. It is dangerous to make the Mossad an enemy.
______

"Russians fighting for Ukraine are not mercenaries. They are traitors."

Yes, they are not mercenaries but also not traitors.
Traitors and mercenaries are these Rossianins who fight for Nazi Rossia. They trampled underfoot their own constitution and are committing ethnic genocide. So yes, you are right, Rossianins in Rossia "are not people – they are Nazi trash". You captured this self-portrait very perfectly.

"And mostly they are recognized Nazis. Their leader was deprived of a Schengen visa for his Nazi activities in Europe:"

And the link you provided clearly states that this is not a Nazi with a swastika and "Heil Hitler!", like the leaders of Russia's Roskosmos, but an ordinary Russian who is fighting against ordinary Russian traitors, Kremlin mercenaries and Nazi scum.
So he is an example that not all Russians are "not people but Nazi trash", some Russians will fight against these Kremlins warmongers. Even if they share the common Russian false perception of the superiority and national purity of the Russians.

Observations show that there are about 10% of Russians who are human beings and not Nazi scum. But not all of them stand up to fight against Kremlin illegal bloodthirsty regime.

Sho Boki, do a good deed, restore justice – bring this Nazi scum back to Europe. Let him and his accomplices make Europe the way they and you want it to be. Europe has forgotten a little what wonderful people you are…

It is SBminisguy and Trump with Putin want to bring your Nazi scum back to Europe. I do not want. On the contrary, I want to keep you out of Europe. That here would be peace and prosperity.
As the Russian proverb says – it's good where there are no Russians.
And Russians who fight for Ukraine help us all with this, they try to liberate Russia from Nazi trash and live then in free Russia.

Evil Putin Puppet and Tsarevich Trump, forces his Nazi demands upon the sacred head of poor Ukrainian leader. Inappropriately at the funeral of the leader of the Catholic world. Even God is offended!! Catholics the world over are appalled!! God "their self" is offended and promises retribution!!

😂 Just thought I'd write the post and headlines for you ahead of time. Save you the time.

Subject: Ukraine's Zelensky says St Peter's Basilica meeting with Donald Trump has ‘potential to be historic' | Irish Independent


link

What's that line? 🤔

"Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of God"

Now back to the outrage and accusations. 😉

"..there was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through "Banking" or "Secondary Sanctions?" Too many people are dying!!!"

Somebody start to understand situation at last. Maybe he will even start doing the right things now? Like Churchill predicted. He even knows what needs to be done.
Or he prefers to bully Zelensky again instead?

South Korea's DMZ will not work in Ukraine. The border with Russia is too long, and you also have to factor in Byelorussia as a weak point you can't ignore.

Well the concept can be used. But the ROK/Nork DMZ is only 151 miles. It would take billions of $ and how many thousands of troops will it take ? To make an effective defense/deterrent vs Russians …

Finally the penny has dropped with Trump.

Trump wrote that Putin doesn't seem very open to any peace proposals (!)… that this surprises and disappoints him… that it's wrong that he bombed kyiv(!)… (now?… he's been doing it for 4 years, killing civilians!!!)… that maybe he's not taking him seriously (!)…that maybe he should start thinking about some banking measures against Russia (!)…

Abysmal ignorance, as I've already said… he should hang his advisors from the Golden Gate Bridge…

Armand

Well the concept can be used. But the ROK/Nork DMZ is only 151 miles. It would take billions of $ and how many thousands of troops will it take ? To make an effective defense/deterrent vs Russians

My armchair general solution is to do layered defenses with bastions supporting bastions

============================
(wire, obstacles, mines and drones)

<^> <^> <^>
(first layer bastions/defenses to slow and funnel attacks

<^> <^>
(2nd layer bastions and defenses in planned fall back/funnel areas)

<^>
(Final defense layer, close in city defense, etc,)

Thinking influenced by the Czech defenses which were so well crafted that the Germans copied them for defenses elsewhere. If Benes hadn't betrayed the country with unconstitutional complete surrender, the Germans would have gotten chopped up pretty badly. The Czech defenses in layered depth and set up to slow and attrit an attacker and funnel them into kill zones, with three layers of defenses and planned fall backs before final defenses in major cities. Of course they had good terrain on their side, Ukraine doesn't have the same terrain.

But can Ukraine *make* obstacles? For example, create the conditions for areas to be flooded to create an obstacle, so they flood a low laying area to force attacks into other approaches, etc.

SBm +1

What you posted is generally a good plan. And defense in depth is SOP if you plan on staying there.

And this line of defence end up in Narva or go further to north?

Baltics Disconnect From Russian Grid

"Two years ago the Baltic States, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, increased their defense spending and aimed for three percent of GDP on their armed forces. A more dramatic action was severing economic ties with Russia. For 65 years Estonia and the other Baltic States received their electrical power from Russia. In early 2025 the Baltic States switched to the European electricity network. This left the Russian Baltic Sea enclave of Kaliningrad, formerly German Konigsberg, isolated from Russian power supplies. This enclave now depends on new coal and gas fired power plants with coal and liquid natural gas shipped in from Russia. This enclave is also a base for Russian retaliation against the Baltic States. This is in the form of Russian merchant ships dragging their anchors along the seafloor to break or damage electrical or communications cables. With Russian forces tied down in Ukraine, Baltic States military and police forces boarded the offending Russian ships and encouraged the crews to cease their mischief…"

link

Armand

Great news, Tango))) This means the European Union will have to spend a lot more on their maintenance ;)

link

Kremlin ramps up forces near NATO front

link

How scary… Russia is not capable of taking Luxembourg

Armand

Disinformation Roulette: The Kremlin's Year of Lies to Justify an Unjustifiable War

link

Maybe SOMEONE in Trump's entourage has read this at some point?

Armand

US and Ukraine sign the minerals deal, paving the way for Ukrainian Ceasefire commitment. Stay tuned!

Indeed. Deal is signed and Vance announced happily that now US may walk away from Peace process at last, there will be a long war and let thousands of Ukrainians will be killed as they are angry to be killed (and never say "thank you!" for that).

Deal is signed and Vance announced happily that now US may walk away from Peace process at last

The US will have civilians in Ukraine with deal. That alone will have some deterrent value. The US was just giving arms, money, etc. to Ukraine. With NATO it was just a loan. Amounted to billions of $. USD

That was becoming untenable. With the new US POTUS trying get some control of the US spending. How can the US just keep giving $. USD Without some way to continue to be able to produce arms … and everything else. The POTUS was handed a total mess that the previous POTUS and Admin left behind. Biden et al wasted billions upon billions as it now coming to light. How can anybody think the USA's wealth is infinite? Especially now… Regardless, I don't think the US or NATO is going to let Ukraine out on a limb.

there will be a long war and let thousands of Ukrainians will be killed as they are angry to be killed (and never say "thank you!" for that).

Isn't that already happening ? The new POTUS has only been in office 100+ days. The previous POTUS had 4 long years to screw things to the level it was when Trump entered the WH. Not just in the USA but many places in the world …

Deal is signed and Vance announced happily that now US may walk away from Peace process at last

The US will have civilians in Ukraine with this deal. That alone will have some deterrent value. The US was just giving arms, money, etc. to Ukraine. With NATO it was just a loan. Amounted to billions of $. USD

That was becoming untenable. With the new US POTUS trying get some control of the US spending. How can the US just keep giving $. USD? Without some way to continue to be able to produce arms … and everything else. The POTUS was handed a total mess that the previous POTUS and Admin left behind. Biden et al wasted billions upon billions as it now coming to light. How can anybody think the USA's wealth is infinite? Especially now… Regardless, I don't think the US or NATO is going to let Ukraine out on a limb.

there will be a long war and let thousands of Ukrainians will be killed as they are angry to be killed (and never say "thank you!" for that).

Isn't that already happening ? The new POTUS has only been in office 100+ days. The previous POTUS had 4 long years to screw things to the level it was when Trump entered the WH. Not just in the USA but many places in the world …

Apparently it will be years and many billions more before the US can access many of the materials. Meanwhile Ukrainian civilians are being killed at twice the rate they were last year at this time regardless of peace talks.

Will this deal deter Putin? I think he will keep the war going now that the US has bailed out on military aid. Trump showed some spine doing this, I hope it works.

Will this deal deter Putin? I think he will keep the war going now that the US has bailed out on military aid.

Not really…looks like Trump released some munitions aid to Ukraine, and the minerals deal is really a long-term "loan guarantee" where military aid is considered coming out of future minerals sales, not just an open-ended gift. It ends the blank check problem, and will probably be tied to events rather than open ended spending, and anti-corruption actions.

Still early days. Next, both sides have to agree to an actual ceasefire they enforce on their military commanders, then peace talks, then a deal, then DMZ, then reconstruction… lots of "If THIS, then THAT" statements to get through…

Regarding the quantity or quality of the military equipment to be delivered to Ukraine… the obvious change now that want to be show is that now they pay (in some way) for it… before it seemed like it was given free away (!)… saying that… peace with a person like Putin… not even by a direct phone call … there is no movement or measure of any weight in sight on the part of the USA to bring Putin to the negotiating table… only the "pressure" on Zelensky is what has been seen…

Armand

Meanwhile Ukrainian civilians are being killed at twice the rate they were last year at this time regardless of peace talks.

That has more to do with Putin. He is going to push the envelope for as long and as far as he can.

Trump is also planning on harsh sanctions on Russia … there is only so much the USA and even NATO can do at this point.

Trump showed some spine doing this

He has shown much more "spine", etc. Then the previous Admin. Had Joe and/or Karmela were still in the WH. Things would be so much worse. Again, Putin, all our enemies and even allies saw what the situation in the WH was and the Dems and media kept outright lying.

Four Signs Russia Could Be Preparing for War With NATO

link

Armand

Evil Orange man is going to send weapons to the Ukraine!?😱
But I keep reading here and in the media, he would not go against his "old buddy Putin"!😱
He is rewarding the Ukraine for the minerals deal!?😱

"The US is planning to send advanced air defence systems to Ukraine after Donald Trump signed a minerals deal with Kyiv and threatened to walk away from peace talks…"

But …. But …. He's Evil and a Putin puppet!! Everyone says so!! 😱

I must believe he's evil! I must believe he's evil!😈 But… But… OH I'm so confused 😵‍💫

Subject: US to send more weapons to Ukraine


link

"The U.S. could withdraw from peace talks with Ukraine and Russia if the two sides show no progress, President Donald Trump says.

Trump made the comments during an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" that aired Sunday, telling host Kristen Welker that there is "tremendous hatred" between Ukraine and Russia.

The president says he remains hopeful a peace deal is possible, but confirmed that the U.S. would not remain a mediator indefinitely."

Could this all be part of negotiations and there is some plan? 🤔 NO!! He's the 😈. The media tells me so! I must believe… I must believe.

😉

2 more Patriot units going to Ukraine, one to be refurbished and sent from Israel. Kyiv is taking a beating. The Houthis just dropped one close to Tel Aviv airport, they are still at it.

Yeah I saw both those stories on FOX. Putin is just trying to bomb Ukraine into submission. Like the allies did in WWII. The Russians, North Koreans, etc. continue to take high losses and gain little ground. Has been that way since the war started.

The Houthis are losing a lot of assets. With the US[and now UK] doing an air offensive. For over 47 days, hitting 1000s of targets. And as always sooner or later a missile, etc. will get thru. The only way to stop the Houthis completely is to hit their resupply from Iran. The IDF is thinking about hitting them anyway.

With Syria falling, Iran's resupply to Hezbollah has pretty much stopped.

Iran is still buying time until they get deployable nukes. But if it comes down to it, the IDF and probably the USA will do a joint air offensive. And cripple Iran's nuke program. And I'm betting the IDF will takeout Iran's theocratic gov't. Like most islamists, both the Houthis and Iran won't stop until most of them are dead. Knowing they will go to paradise. Same goes for Hamas/the Palestinians … The IDF is on the offensive to finish off as much of Hamas and their supporters as they can. Get as many hostages back as they can dead or alive.

The word in now, IIRC Qatar is actually supplying a many moslem terrorist as Iran.

2 more Patriot units going to Ukraine, one to be refurbished and sent from Israel. Kyiv is taking a beating.

Not so fast -- Zelelensky just spit on part of Trump's peace deal proposal, insisting that Crimea is sacrosanct even though it was taken 13 years ago and there's no way in hell Putin will give up the home port of the Back Sea fleet.

The potential deal being floated in the media was Ukraine cedes Crimea to Russia, and in return gets all or part of other taken territory back. An end to the war, giving the chance to start constructing a DMZ, rebuild the Ukrainian Army, and start Reconstruction.

Nah, Zelensky doesn't want that. He wants total victory war. So let him do that without those Patriot batteries or other US support.

I think Zelensky feels he's being clever, get Trump into the mineral deal and then fruck around and try to get the US into direct conflict with Russia so we win the war for him. Ain't gonna happen, Trump should just walk until Zelensky actually wants to talk.

Yes, we already know that you prefer Trump to continue bullying the victims and win this shameful war for Putin.

All what we need to know about this war.
Directly from Russian people..

x.com/United24media/status/1919471753597698154

Yes, we already know that you prefer Trump to continue bullying the victims and win this shameful war for Putin.

Nope. I prefer to end a hugely destabilizing, bloody and expensive war that has no clear victory goal and risks escalation to World War 3.

Your plan is to just let Ukraine bleed out in the hopes Russia bleeds out first? Or what, you're gonna send NATO armies into Ukraine to retake Crime and the Donbas -- when at the current casualty rate Germany's army of only 70,000 would be shredded in three months of combat and risk nuclear war?

It's always easy to be bold with someone else's money and life…

"Your plan is to just let Ukraine bleed out"
It is your plan – Ukrainians must die or surrender, don't help them.

"you're gonna send NATO armies into Ukraine to retake Crime and the Donbas"
It is your plan again – to send NATO armies into Ukraine to die.

"It's always easy to be bold with someone else's money and life…"
Like Trump and you – Ukrainians, give to us your money and surrender to muscovites or die? And after Ukrainians all other Europeans too..

Swedish Saab CB90 Fast Attack Boats Donated to Ukraine Deliver Advanced Combat Capabilities.

link

UK confirms final withdrawal of AS90 artillery as entire fleet transferred to Ukraine

link

Beyond the Hype: Why Drones Cannot Replace Artillery

link

Armand

@Sho Boki
We will never agree on this, reality will reveal itself in time. And I'm focused on reality, not Armchair General fantasies of total victory.

Reality says -- Ukraine has no path forwards to a conventional military victory in a war of attrition against a wealthier and numerically superior foe, even if that foe's army is of lower quality.

Despite all your fervent best wishes, despite all your anger and angst, reality says Ukraine wins by surviving intact as a sovereign nation and the chance to emplace layered defenses and reconstruct its military, economy and society.

And reality says, we don't know what we don't know. We only get happy brave sacrificing Ukrainian stories from the Western Media, we don't get the full story. So we have to poke at the story and ask -- how solid IS Ukraine? We see videos of men being kidnapped off the street into the Ukrainian army --but not lines of volunteers eager to go fight.

Why?

We see Zelensky complaining that he's only seen less than half of the US Aid secured by the US Congress, leading you to wonder -- where did the other $100 USD USD Billion go?

Are we seeing a fantasy version of Ukraine in the media? Is it a Potemkin Village, hollow behind the facade?

That's my fear, that Ukraine is running on the ragged edge, and could implode and collapse the longer this war of attrition continues, in which case Putin wins everything.

So, Sho Boki, why do you want hand Putin a victory?

"And I'm focused on reality, not Armchair General fantasies of total victory."
Not at all. Your fantasies about total military victory alone proves that.
You just support old and wrong traditions of US policy that US must support Rossia in any cases because it is easier to deal with one big criminal regime for US than to have relations with several free and democratic states on ruins of this regime. It was POTUS Bush who travelled between Republics who intended to separate from Soviet Union and called them not to rock Gorbachev's boat.

"Reality says -- Ukraine has no path forwards to a conventional military victory"
See, you told about military victory again. So you are far away from reality.

"Ukraine wins by surviving intact as a sovereign nation"
True. Sovereign nation within internationally recognized borders in Europe.
Otherwise all basic principles of Peace in Europe will be collapsed.

"And reality says, we don't know what we don't know … we don't get the full story."
This is what Russians always says to justify their crimes.

"We see videos of men being kidnapped off the street into the Ukrainian army"
Russian propaganda again. All we see is the detention of citizens who are undocumented and aggressively disobey the lawful demands of the authorities. May be these are Russian spies..

"where did the other $100.00 USD USD Billion go?"
To Americans seemingly. And there somebody complain about big corruption in Ukraine when more than half of help will stay in US.

"Ukraine is running on the ragged edge, and could implode and collapse the longer this war of attrition continues, in which case Putin wins everything."
Or vice versa.

What we know?
In 2014 Russia violates the European system of Peace and all relevant international agreements. So Russia started World War in Europe and the only solution was to restore the status quo. Nothing is changed so far except Russia is no longer capable of ending the war because its entire economy is devoted to war and is on the verge of collapse. Boiling a frog will eventually yield results.

Specialists calculated that if the war continues as it is now, Russia may win it by 2206 but their baabas have to give birth to much more fresh cannon fodder in this case. Thanks to US and Europe, Ukraine has much more resources than Russia.

Putin cannot demobilize any of the mobilized soldiers and is forced to continue paying them their current salaries. So for Putin, war is the only option.
This is why only Ukrainians are ready for some Peace. Then Russians within a year will mobilize more men, produce needed ammunition (as Ukraine will not bomb their ammunition storages anymore) and go directly against NATO.

So if Trump want peace he must bully not Zelensky but Putin. Zelensky is always ready for peace. Trump must give him more air defense together with long range rockets, close Russian borders and use huge secondary tariffs. There are absolutely no need for military victory about Russia as you unrealistically suggest. Ukrainian long range strikes only eliminate their ammunition and war economy, drones and arty eliminate most of their mobilized men, prevents them from preparing for a bigger war. Stronger sanctions, secondary tariffs and closed borders will do the main work.

So Ukrainians are ready for peace but Russians not. Ukrainians agreed with cease-fire and your DMZ and even made a corresponding proposal. Part of Ukrainian lands continued to be temporarily occupied by Russians. All sanctions, tariffs and closed borders remain valid and even increases until occupation continue and all reparations and contributions will be paid. There are no other ways. Direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia may be about schedule of reparations only.
Are Russians interested about such peace? No, not now. They prepared and started war and want that their crime will pay. Peace will be only then when Russians understand that their crime will not pay.

Chapeaux pour vous mon ami Sho Boki…

Armand

What Is Possible For Ukraine

"Ukraine may not win its war with Russia, but the Russians are headed for defeat, even after a cease-fire or peace settlement. The causes are a collapsing transportation systems along with the oil and chemical infrastructure. Another cause will be lack of maintenance and capital reinvestment, plus war damage. Then there are the western economic sanctions. Sanctions began in 2014, after Russia seized Ukraine's Crimean peninsula and industrial Donbas region, and were dramatically increased in 2022 when Russia again invaded Ukraine.

Russia's corrupt government also matters. Putin assigns control of various portions to his corrupt subordinates for them to loot. In return Putin expects loyalty provided they support him politically. One example is how he divided the Soviet railroad system into separate components. One consisted of rolling stock, while the other included the engines, rails and related ground equipment and fixtures. Each component went to an individual oligarch. Putin later divided the first oligarch's holdings into two and gave half to a third oligarch.

The management style of these corrupt oligarchs differs from those of western companies where owners and managers try to preserve the value of their holdings first and maximize profits second. Russia's corrupt oligarchs know they can lose their holdings at any time due to Putin's whims. The oligarchs concentrate on maximizing income from both profits as well as looting their holdings. This lead them to stint on maintenance, capital reinvestment and labor force training.

Worse, subordinates emulated management with similar damaging actions. For example, railroad personnel removed and sold copper wire from any equipment they had access to. Similar problems occurred at numerous organizations like the Russian space agency Roscosmos and numerous manufacturing facilities…"

link

Armand