"China is preparing to INVADE Taiwan in Fall" Topic

"Taiwan's top diplomat said he couldn't speak on the authenticity of a purported Russian intelligence document that claimed Chinese President Xi Jinping had plans to annex the island nation this fall.

Joseph Wu, Taiwan's minister of foreign affairs, said on Wednesday that his country would have to prepare regardless. "No matter if or when China decides to attack us, we must always be ready to defend ourselves," he told reporters in Taipei.

During a defense committee hearing in the island's legislature, Wu told lawmakers that he was aware of media reports about the document said to be written by an anonymous analyst with Russia's Federal Security Service calling themself "Wind of Change." The foreign minister said he wasn't able to verify the alleged FSB document, but said Taiwan's own intelligence services were closely monitoring relevant chatter…"
Main page
link

Armand

I would hope the debacle for Russia in Ukraine would make China pause. The Ukrainians are very nationalist But are the Taiwanese?

I'm surprised this hasn't happened already.

Well I won't be vacationing there this summer …

I'd think based on how the Ukraine turns out may have the PRC/CCP rethink that invasion.

Well, either it'd a forgery or someone in the Russian intelligence service is an idiot.

The invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for the People's Republic of China. It demonstrated that the industrialized nations had the will to impose crippling sanctions to punish the unprovoked invasion of a fellow democracy. Also, the weakness of the Russian military undermines the threat value of the PLA and forces Xi and the top leadership to wonder about what hidden weaknesses the PLA might contain. Xi and the top leadership would like to stay in power; seizing Taiwan is merely an amuse bouche. You don't trade a complete dinner for it.

Thanks.

Armand

After Ukraine, I would not want to predict anything. But after listening to Peter Zeihan on this it certainly sounds like China' domestic issues would preclude this, along with an untested military, and a huge fear of economic consequences, just as they are trying to be seen as a world player.

I am not sure about an FSB whistle blower either, seems like, if there was such a thing, he would get it in the neck before he got the whistle out of his mouth. And with the amount of disinformation Russia has sold the world these last few years, I am suspicious.

Let's hope not.

And with the amount of disinformation Russia has sold the world these last few years, I am suspicious.

Agreed. It could just be an invented distraction, trying to get western leaders to look elsewhere.Then again, it may be Xi testing the waters as well, to see just how distracted the west, and US in particular, is.

Then this isn't an intelligent way to test the waters. What responses would mean what???

If the U.S. government says, "Yeah, no, we don't believe it," is that supposed to mean that the United States would acquiesce to an invasion? Only someone who uses "password" as their password would believe that.

How Putin ends up in the Ukraine in the end will help Xi to decide if he should invade Taiwan, As I said before …

Xi is watching this all very closely …

Yes, Legion. I can't imagine it's making him want to try it himself. But the threats will continue.

The threats are part of the game played. Posturing, saber rattling, propaganda, etc. is the norm. Xi sees, IMO, the negative outcry of the world vs. Putin & his war. It's probably something the CCP wants to avoid. China has much more worldwide trade to consider. Putin's Russia, no where near as much. Rarely do you see an item in the store that says "Made in Russia" …

"Rarely do you see an item in the store that says "Made in Russia" …"

I've tried sewing the "Made in Russia" tags onto natural gas and it's a %&#$@!

Ha! Good one, I have actually never seen a single consumer item made in Russia. In my life, to my knowledge.

China's economy is ten times the size of Russia's. That's power.

Legion – overall, is it the men or the material or both that have made Russian military perform unexpectedly poorly in this war? Low marks for leadership are not the whole story. Can these guys build and maintain an advanced military structure based on what we are seeing here? They must be pretty stretched by now logistically.

I have read of the brain drain from there in recent years, less stringent education standards as well. They are not running things as well, it seems.

Ha! Again, Legion you don't have to repeat yourself, I just saw the other thread, where you answer. Thanks!

Russian vodka is about the only item I'm aware of, other than the occasional models.

Ha!…

Armand

You are right Thresher. Nobody else makes Russian vodka like Russia. I have never bought any figs made there. Zveda? Or something like that are the ones I see mentioned sometimes.

I suppose there is caviar for some…..which we call "bait" around here, if I understand it's origin.

We're worried about a report from the Russian Intelligence Service now!?!?

What more do they need to do to demonstrate their complete incompetence? They have led Putin and the Russian military into a disaster with Ukraine thats unfolding before our eyes.

Having said that I agree that the Taiwanese need to be alert and prepared – as they are.

Tortorella: Zvezda is a pretty good Russian maker of model kits and soldiers (the latter at 1/72 scale). I own many model kits by them and they are pretty great.

Ukraine also makes some nice figures in 1/72. I also own some Soviet WW2 artillery kit from an Ukrainian brand whose name escapes me now.

And with the amount of disinformation Russia has sold the world these last few years, I am suspicious.

These days it's difficult to differentiate Russian propaganda / disinformation from US media / deep state propaganda. Case in point, the Hunter Biden laptop which now even the NYT admits was not part of a Russian disinformation campaign.

We should all be very suspicious and skeptical regardless of political affiliation.

H B is a case in point. And we have had to live with a famous media star being featured on Russian state tv.

Both sides have seemingly endless baggage. But I don't think this approaches the extremes going on with Russia' s portrayal of the war, it's leadership, or the political rationales Putin comes up with.

I've tried sewing the "Made in Russia" tags onto natural gas and it's a %&#$@!

You may have to rethink that …

Legion you don't have to repeat yourself, I just saw the other thread, where you answer.

Well in case some have not seen that. I'm glad someone reads what I post. Sometimes they answer for something I already answered. But hey, good to see other's opinions, facts, etc. Or see my answer is similar to others. I have not jumped the shark, off the reservation, etc. !! 🦈

Legion – overall, is it the men or the material or both that have made Russian military perform unexpectedly poorly in this war?

I'd think it has to do more with poor training, motivation, supply and leadership. As generally there is nothing really wrong with their equipment. Albeit older, some they were using when I was in the Army in the '80s. A weapon is only as good as the trooper/crew behind it … plus capable leadership.

Low marks for leadership are not the whole story. Can these guys build and maintain an advanced military structure based on what we are seeing here?

Right now my opinion of Russian leadership is pretty low. I have seen nothing to think otherwise.

They must be pretty stretched by now logistically.

They have lost much of their combat power it appears due to a poor to non-existent Log chain. They thought they didn't have to as Putin's War would be over in a couple of days. They were wrong. And it seems they are not that good at doing catch-up with their resupply, repair, maintain efforts.

In doctrine, tactics, logistics, etc. they are "NO GOs". They need to go back to school.

I have quite a few Zvezda kits under my belt, & another in the mail as we speak (ordered it right after the invasion started, so I could be sure I'd get it). The kits range from so-so to very good. IMHO their T-34 based kits are some of the best out there for this tank in 1/35 scale.

Their new T-62 is also supposed to be more accurate than the Trumpeter kit (from China BTW), & light years better than the old Tamiya kit.

Damon.

emckinney,

Then this isn't an intelligent way to test the waters. What responses would mean what???

Does the leak get much airplay in the western media? Is there much discussion about it in western political circles? Does anyone, apart from Taipei and Japan, take any notice at all?

Or are the Westerners all completely focussed on telling Vlad what a bad person he is?

That's what testing the waters means, mate. Here it barely got a mention in the media and no mention from the pollies (though they are distracted by the upcoming elections).

Glup!

Armand

Solomon Islands PM says China security deal 'ready for signing'

link

Armand

U.S. Says China Could Face Sanctions if It Supports Russia's War in Ukraine

link

Armand

@Legion 4,

Right now my opinion of Russian leadership is pretty low. I have seen nothing to think otherwise.

A supposed phone call intercept has an ordinary Russian soldier saying their leadership is just "not mentally advanced". Can't argue based on the evidence so far.

Of course, the intercept might be disinformation but the judgement is fair in my view – as a former defence analyst trying to be objective in such things. The key bits of evidence I've considered are:

1) The excellent video by Perun, "All Bling, no Basics – Why Ukraine has embarrassed the Russian Military". Everyone, including the US, has to prioritize their defence investments for what they see as the likely conflicts, key defence issues. Not investing for a very likely conflict with Ukraine is definitely "not mentally advanced".

YouTube link

2) A plan that seems to have been based on very optimistic assumptions that there'd be no resistance. Where was the "red teamining?" I use "red teaming" as a term or a challenge function. Just not "mentally advanced" planning.

3) Even accepting that the attack on Kyiv was a "feint" then it was horribly executed…horribly. Too many troops assigned to the feint. Not coordinated with the supposed major attack in the Donbass area. Waiting until after the "feint" is defeated and then sending those northern troops to the eastern region is very poor use of a feint given the need to refit the northern troops and send them via exterior lines of communication. And to top it off, why not broadcast this great "feint" plan. Again, just not "mentally advanced" execution of a plan. Seems to me to be more of a "lipstick on a pig" after the fact rationalization. This does not mean that there aren't major objectives in the south and east as explained by Task & Purpose in his video, Russia Regrouping in Ukraine is worse than you think".

YouTube link

It may not be well known but operational planning was done only by flag officers (generals and admirals) in the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact. Colonels and below were not responsible. In the flag officers give their overall intent while officers (majors to colonels) analyze the situation, develop alternative courses of action, red team the plan, develop the detailed plan, etc. There's good reasons why this works but one is that flag officers start to become more "political" while the next level down focuses on the latest in military operations. However, in the Soviet Union/Warsaw pact there wasn't a lot of trust of lower ranks. It was easier to ensure political loyalty of flag officers. Perhaps it's still the same in the Russian military of today which would be consistent with what we've seen.

But…don't think that despite the errors above that the Russian officers can't learn and do better. They may yet "mentally advance" to competence and do so quite quickly. Perhaps attrition will aid that advancement. As Frank Chadwick (Command Decision rules) observed about the British armoured corps officers in the Western Desert of WWII. They eventually learned to coordinate with their infantry and artillery but a lot of that was due to the high attrition of "dashing cavalry officers" who seemed to be unable or unwilling to do so.

Thanks!

Armand

Western Pressure Grows On Solomon Islands To Abandon Their Security Pact With China

link

Armand

Shadoe +1 … Yes the learning curve for the marginal at best officer corps is steep. And I'm not sure they figured out what to do with the poorly trained, motivated troops, flammable AFVs, etc. We will see in the upcoming offensive operations how they fare … My $ is on the Ukraine … again.

Now China is getting a little karma payback going on in Shanghai. With a massive outbreak of COVID.

Plus I hope they are watching how flammable Russian AFVs are, and how poor Putin's military is overall …

Would the PRC/CCP do any better doing a very difficult invasion of Taiwan by sea, etc., etc. ? Plus it's the Taiwanese's homeland/their backyard …

US Warns Solomon Islands To Not Permit China To Build A Military Base

link

Armand

China Conducts Its 2nd-Largest Air Incursion Into Taiwan Defence Zone This Year

link

Armand

The PRC/CCP is going to threaten, posture, saber rattle, etc. It's all part of the "game" … Has been going on for a long time. IMO I don't think they will invade in the Fall …

China has a number of internal issues to concentrate on this year, like the lock down chaos, the food shortage caused by culling their diseased pork herd, and most of all their seriously slumping economy, which they are trying to hide.

Invading Taiwan will not fix any of this.

Yes they have many internal problems, many we don't know about. But their latest handling COVID … was medieval …

I think the Chinese leadership has to be a stupid as Putin to do this and what would be their prize, they out invade Siberia if their in that kind of mood.

DF-26: China's New Missile Plan To Kill A Navy Aircraft Carrier From Distance

link

Armand

And their oil supply lines are long and hard to defend, especially the Indian Ocean route from the Middle East. They won't give up on Taiwan. But I think they will find less military ways to slowly acquire it. After watching Putin show his hand and flop, they are too smart to go that route. I hope. Maybe. (Ukraine disclaimer).

Xi is learning a hard lesson, watching Putin blunder again & again. Putin is in a corner … he may not be able to get out.

Putin has to be able to call it a win, but this would involve Ukraine giving up territory to him, perhaps even just the East and southeast areas he controls. Since they are not out of the fight, why would Ukraine cut a deal with him, especially because he cannot be trusted to honor it?

I may be in the minority, but I do not thing we should have started building up Ukraine's military last year. It would have given Putin an excuse to blame us for forcing him to invade and would have been a major propaganda loss for us. Instead they have had to go with the Nazi excuse, which the world does not believe. Just my opinion,and my instinct not to rush into things.

The Ukrainians are talking about taking the Donbas back, maybe Crimea. They see the Russians are a paper tiger. They probably will take advantage of this to reclaim as much territory and inflict heavy losses on the Russians as possible. As long as they get support from NATO, etc.

It would have given Putin an excuse to blame us for forcing him to invade and would have been a major propaganda loss for us

He may have thought twice if the Ukraine was more well-armed by the US, etc. And even if he did attack for whatever reasons he came up with. Look how much damage the Ukrainians did with what they had on hand. The losses on the invading Russians would have been even worse. If the Ukrainians had much of this equipment the US, NATO, etc. has given them since after the invasion.

Good leaders must look at all the angles as we know, of course. The good to very good ones on up will have to be willing to take some chances/calculated risks. Being too timid is as bad as being too aggressive. Based on terrain and situation, etc. History as we know is full of examples on both ends of the spectrum.

I get what you are saying and mostly agree, Legion.

My point is that Russia began to lose the PR battle almost immediately in this fight, and was condemned worldwide as attacking Ukraine without provocation – we gave Putin nothing he could use. So the unity of the world response, both symbolically and via the sanctions, made Putin an international outcast. It is hard to see how Russia will recover their prior status as a major power after this. They still have the nukes though.

…So the unity of the world response …

Which world?… OTAN USA and Partners maybe… but the rest… China, India, Arab Countries, Africa, etc etc (not counting with many of Latin American)… would continue with good realtionship with the Tzar…

Only an armed conflict against Russia could stop them…

If not… imho… Putin has de winner cards in this game…

And China even began to move yet… when they decided to do it… God help us!…

Armand

China Is Still Focused On Taking Over Taiwan

link

link

Armand

You are right Armand, not exactly everybody, but with the exception of China, and maybe India, most of the worlds wealthiest nations are in sync on hurting the Russian economy, supporting Ukraine.

China has a number of weaknesses, like their food problems, slowing economy, vulnerable energy supply lines, inexperienced military. And they do not want to end up in the same position as Putin is now, not winning and no way out.

My point is that Russia began to lose the PR battle almost immediately in this fight, and was condemned worldwide as attacking Ukraine without provocation – we gave Putin nothing he could use.

Understand … But again, I think a stronger Ukraine with US, NATO, etc. weapons etc. Would have made Putin to think twice and if not their loses would be higher.

Propaganda victories are a good thing. But kill, capture, and destroy enemy personnel and equipment. Causing them to lose the will to fight is a real victory.

China has a number of weaknesses,

Much domestic, but militarily they have to continue building the forces. To project power. If they decide to can do an Amphib invasion of Taiwan. Well at least to attempt it. As we know an amphib invasion is one of the most challenging operations an military can do. And the PRC has little experience in this as combat in general.

I just cannot see them mounting this kind of operation for the first time in their history. The logistics alone are a major challenge for experienced personnel, never mind these guys. They have a lot of troops to move, all their supplies and gear, they would need to coordinate escorts and deal with counterattacks.

Your point about deterrence is valid and you might be right. And I hate the suffering this war has caused and maybe it was worth a gamble to see if he would be concerned enough with the added force to hold off. Not too sure about his mental state at this point in his career and why he made such an historic blunder.

I would not want to underestimate the Chinese military, but I wonder how good they really are as well. No modern era track record. But I believe they are distracted at home right now and they do not want to end up like Russia – an outcast nation that major trading partners have mostly cut off from the global economy.