"Kazakhstan Declares State Of Emergency. Government" Topic

… Resigns With Violent Protests Raging Over Fuel Price Increases

"Thousands of Kazakh protesters armed with clubs and metal bars have stormed a mayor's office as police hit back with stun grenades and tear gas amid unprecedented unrest over soaring gas prices.

Explosions were heard in Almaty, Kazakhstan's biggest city, after demonstrators gathered at a square near the mayor's building.

An Instagram live stream by a blogger showed a fire blazing in the office and gunshots could be heard nearby during the violent scenes…."

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Armand

I can't blame them.

Sadly, we just roll over and take the massive increases due to poor policy decisions.

Americans should be a lot more outraged too, though NOT to the point of setting fire to things like some people do, and have done not too long ago in multiple cities across our land.

Wonder if Russia will send in troops to maintain order, since this this within their 'sphere of influence' – or do they have troops to spare at the moment? I imagine the Russians worry about radical Islamists taking charge there.

Reportedly, that aid has been requested, though I'm not sure how real it is.

Perhaps about the same as Afghans asking for help just before the Soviet Union invaded their country too.

Makes me wonder if some troops may get lost and land in Belarus, Poland, or the tiny Baltic States too, by accident, since Russian troops do seem to get confused periodically while on holiday, or other assignments.

You are confusing exactly opposite situations. The legitimate government of Kazakhstan has turned to its partners in a formal military treaty for help with a request to send troops to ensure the security of the state. There is no need for covert operations here.

About the agreement according to which Kazakhstan requested foreign assistance:
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Russia-Led Bloc Accepts Kazakh President's Plea For Military Help

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Armand

well there was a significant wealth split in the country. However as long as various oil and gas joint ventures like KPO, TCO, NCOC, etc were providing profits to their Western owners nobody really cared about unfair elections, corruption, real estate in London of Nazarbaev family…

They also have local nationalism on the rise and centuries-long clan division – a lot of people were getting their positions bcs of clans and bribes.

China has invested lots of money in Kazakhstan during last years, so I guess they're not happy with the situation.

There's plenty of comments that the unrest was initially staged by Tokaev, their current president, to finally get full power from former leader Nazarbaev, but it didn't go according to the plan.

While LPG is an important factor there – I was quite surprised the first time I saw top model Lexus cars converted to LPG – there's much more problems there, and it was really foolish to ignite them all in such a way.

In theory Kazakhstan has a large army, but calling ODKB means Tokaev is not sure if local forces will protect him.
He told on the TV that Kazakh paratroopers were battling some kind of armed terrorists last night, I can't verify if it was true.
If I was as paranoid as Thresher, I could suggest that it was inspired by USA to give Russia some stuff to care instead of concentrating on Ukraine, and it is a version that some of our politicians support.

We just need to see what is happening with oil and gas exports, if there's business as usual, this version might have some truth in it. If there's a strike, or even worse, attacks on JV administrative buildings, then it is something else.

The Kazakhs have also been upset about Kazakh refugees being accepted from Afghanistan (these are apparently descendants of Kazakhs who fled the Soviet Union).

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I wonder if invasion plans for Ukraine have been put on hold because of this distraction?

Well as agreed number of all peacekeeping forces is 2.500 at the moment, do you really think that 2000 Russian paratroopers would have been enough to capture Ukraine? I'm mostly gaming fantasy now, but it looks more like a fairy tale to me…

2,000 is the down payment, the vanguard.

I am also willing to bet there are a lot of off the book assets already there like Spetznaz.

Apparently, a number of people have now been killed.

Sad.

As Dragon mentioned. Just saw on the news, Russia sent some Paratroops to help quell the violence, etc. I'm sure some Spetsnaz were in the mix. If they were not there already. How many more troops will they send ? Now let's see how long it is before the Russian troops leave.

Here's what I see so far from the available sources.
According to preliminary statements, allied troops will enter the territory of Kazakhstan in the very near future. The number is planned to be about 4500 people. 3 thousand of them are Russian troops, the rest from Belarus, Armenia and Tajikistan. Kyrgyzstan is still discussing the issue of the participation of its troops.
Part of the Russian and Belarusian troops have already arrived on the territory of Kazakhstan. They will not accept direct actions against the rebels, but will take under protection various objects, freeing the Kazakh security forces to carry out the suppression of the rebels.
It seems that a turning point has come in the confrontation. All administrative buildings in Almaty have been vacated. Shooting continues on the streets of the city, in some places the resistance is organized. The losses of the Kazakh security officials at the moment are 18 killed (2 – severed heads), 742 wounded. The official loss of the rebels is 30 killed (in reality, I think the figure is much higher). The city is plundered. Troops and police were ordered to kill any armed civilians who resisted. In other areas where protests took place, there is no forceful confrontation, the opposition refuses to support the rebels in Almaty.
Strange, but the rebels do not have visible leadership and leaders, although it is felt that the actions are not spontaneous(seizure of administrative buildings, weapons stores and warehouses of law enforcement agencies, attempts to seize a television center, etc.).

And, I think, the Russian troops will not leave soon. Too much invested Russian money and important Russian facilities. For example, Baikonur is the largest Russian cosmodrome. Yes, and the current government of Kazakhstan will be directly interested in this.
But much more Chinese money has been invested in Kazakhstan, by the way. And after these events, the Chinese influence, it seems to me, will be somewhat yielded in favor of Russia.

Dozens Of Protesters And Security Officers Killed In Kazakhstan -- News Updates January 6, 2021

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Armand

I think it will not be superfluous to remind that there have already been similar events in Kazakhstan. In 2011, in the city of Zhanaozen, the police shot oil workers demanding higher wages and better working conditions (within 8 months). The exact death toll is unknown, the Kazakh authorities denied the use of weapons against the protesters (allegedly the shooting was carried out solely for self-defense purposes), but eyewitness video proves that this was not the case.
Then for some reason nobody cared about it…

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I find it really fascinating that only Daily Mail is calling looters looters, if you look at BBC or Guardian coverage you have the buildings that are somehow burned, shooting that somehow starts, food problems coming from…what exactly?

I've been in Almaty many times, very nice city plagued by traffic jams, with multinational community.

I guess a pretext of foreign terrorist attacks is just a pretext – Tokayev wanted to show his army and security forces that the help will arrive. To get the help, the member ODKB state had to be attacked from outside. Seen Russian, Armenian, Byelorussian troops helping them is sending a message that they are not going to be sold or betrayed as happened in other places, but they have to do their job.
The rioters were looking for weapons – they were targeting police offices, military training facilities, hunting supplies stores. If these weapons are used on the streets against security forces they will, and had to shoot back, so all these "slaughtering" comments of Daily Mail are has to be taken with grain of salt.
In fact, if Russia was really wanting to get itself a chunk of Kazakhstan, it could allow infighting going a bit further, and then move into northern regions where there's a lot of ethnical Russians to protect them, however I think it is not happening – all are keen to finish it asap.

Cuprum and Barin thank you for your point of view on this forum I always love your contributions.

Thanks, all this happening so close makes us very concerned – its easy to see how a peaceful protest is quickly converted to a riot, how incapable authorities can be (they have just promised 30 free minutes and a couple of hundred of free sms to all for switchng off internet…I mean they seriously think their own people want these glass beads?) and how some people will lead others to be killed to get sacred victims for their uprising.
And the real problem is that it can happen in other places – there's way too many poor people and quite a number of billionaires in FSU countries.
Also, I don't see how Putin will even be thinking about transfer of power, seeing what is happening with Nazarbaev…

Cuprum and Barin thank you for your point of view on this forum I always love your contributions.

I agree totally. Both Dragon & I being, old US Army "Cold War Warriors". We may have our POVs based on those days, etc., IMO.

Dragon may or may not agree … I won't speak for him. But it is great to have comments from "the other guys" … so to speak.

I agree with you Legion

Cuprum + Barin + 1

Armand

Dragon +1 🐲

At the moment, I get the impression that the events were inspired from within Kazakhstan itself. The absolute silence of Nazarbayev (former president (read – autocrat), now head of the National Security Council) is surprising. Is he alive? His people still hold most of the key positions in the state. All this is complicated by the clan structure of society typical for Asia, and where the former and current presidents belong to different clans. I think that there is a struggle going on for the redistribution of power in the country between the clans. I will assume that the doubling of gas prices is a deliberately created pretext for public discontent and a prepared uprising in advance.
And of course, all external players are trying to use the current situation to their advantage. If so, Putin has played brilliantly.

P.S. Nazarbayev is still alive, but has already been removed from his post. Well, this only confirms my conclusions. I think that after the end of the events, many leaders in Kazakhstan will be removed from their posts and replaced by those loyal to the new president.

If so, Putin has played brilliantly.

He is no fool … he is a force to be reckoned with. He is a very strong leader.

For better or worse in Western eyes …

And yes … he is a dictator & gangster, IMO and others …

"…And of course, all external players are trying to use the current situation to their advantage. If so, Putin has played brilliantl…"

Can you extend who could be the "external players"?…

Armand

Unrest In Kazakhstan

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Kazakhstan Detains Former Security Chief

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Armand

The Kazakhstan Crisis Is A Much Bigger Deal Than The Western Media Is Letting On

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Armand

Can you extend who could be the "external players"?…

Russia and the allies are obviously in the foreground.
China is secondary.
These are those who are interested in the earliest possible stabilization of the situation in Kazakhstan and the preservation of the current government.

Interested in destabilization:
The West (Europe and the United States) is simply creating additional problems for Russia (containment) and diverting its attention from Ukraine, Syria and other places of conflict of interests. But the actions are sluggish and ineffective, which, in my opinion, excludes the active preparation of the conflict.
Turkey is much more interested in expanding its influence in the Muslim world and actively tried to influence the situation, but it was ineffective. She was not ready for such a development of events, which means she did not take part in their preparation.
The conditional "Islamic Caliphate" (Islamic terrorists) – apparently, their representatives take part in the events, but also not in the main roles – act situationally.

I do not see direct external participants, so I draw conclusions about the internal nature of events.
Putin was ready to respond quickly to a similar situation after the events in Ukraine and Belarus. I think the reaction, but a similar scenario has long been worked out impeccably, which we saw.

And yet – it seems the CSTO has turned into a real military alliance.

A Much Bigger Deal Than The Western Media Is Letting On

Well with so many other crises after crises going on in e.g. the USA. And many in the West/USA have no idea where Kazakhstan is. Or what is going on beyond the 6 O'clock News tells them what is going in a biased, agenda driven narrative, etc., etc.

Truly the tail is wagging the dog, IMO … again … 🐩🐕

I am curious as to why Russia doesn't just annex Kazakhstan?

Ukraine could be invaded and conquered also and I doubt NATO would do anything.

The end result would scare Europe mindless and actually might make them spend some money on their own defense. We would have Cold War part 2.

Thanks

Armand

What The Kazakhstan's Crisis Means For Russia

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What Kazakhstan's Crisis Means For China

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Armand

I am curious as to why Russia doesn't just annex Kazakhstan?

Ukraine could be invaded and conquered also and I doubt NATO would do anything.

Because it is an extremely expensive pleasure))) And in fact, in the modern world it is meaningless.

Haven't you seen in Iraq or Afghanistan what is the occupation of a country in which the majority of the population does not want it?
As soon as the predominant desire of the majority of the local population becomes annexation to Russia, and the current authorities completely discredit themselves in the eyes of the population, then this can be seriously feared. As, for example, in the Crimea.
Now influence is more important and more effective than direct occupation)))

The USA failed in Afghanistan because it lacked the resolve to do what needed to be done…

So far, the shoot to kill orders have been working in Kazakhstan.

When diplomacy and influence fail a military option is what is left.

+1 Dragon …

Kazakh President Declares ‘Coup D'etat' Over. Says Order Has Been Restored

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Armand

We will see … Will the Russian forces stay around for a while ?

The conditional "Islamic Caliphate" (Islamic terrorists) – apparently, their representatives take part in the events, but also not in the main roles – act situationally.

Whenever I hear/see the words – "Islamic Caliphate" (Islamic terrorists), those are both very bad things for everyone else who is not them. 9/11 didn't happen that long ago. AQ is regrouping in A'stan. ISIS-K is even more racial than the Taliban. So I hope all of these jihadis/terrorists etc., wipe each other out. But I doubt that will happen.

ISIS in Syria/Iraq are still around … even though they and their followers have been significantly attrited. Many are in "POW" camps. Seems no one knows what to do with them. But they should not be released. Not ever …

This type of ideology has to be "terminated with extreme prejudice". They kill many more moslems than the West did. During both Gulf Wars, the Global War on Terrorism, etc.

They are a threat to everyone who does not believe as they do. Just look what the Taliban are doing in A'stan. It's absolutely medieval. Similar to what we saw when ISIS was running amuck in Iraq/Syria. To create their version of a "Caliphate". My Moslem friends agree …

Talked to a colleague today, he lives in the North in a city with a significant % of Russians.It was relatively quite during the protests/riots, but it's still better to stay home, as the law enforcement is way too eager to detain you if they think you're suspicious.
There are only local police and troops which is undertstandable as 4K of ODKB troops were mostly deployed in Almaty and on border crossings.
Local Russians consider the affair to be an infighting between kazakh clans and mostly avoided the protests.
There're some rumours that Nazarbaev had a stroke and is in hospital.

Thanks Barin….

Armand

About 1/3 of the troops are already home and the rest will return by 19/01. No losses.
They got the results for Kazakhstan, however it is not clear if Russia got smth in return for the help.
Some observers are pointing that Tokaev was very fast in declaring "the mission over", he also started a massive cleansing and reforms in police, state security and border forces.
Some of his other appointments caused a frustration in Russia, such as moving a couple of nationalists in the government. One of them, Mr. Umarov will be an information minister. Some years ago he was posting plenty of nationalist russophobic crap in social media, he backpedaled now, but is still widely known for his ties with Turkey and panturkism ideology.

Very interesting Barin … thanks for the intel. Glad we have you & Cuprum as "our men on the inside ! " …