"Will Evergrande Crash China? No..." Topic
8 Posts
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Editor in Chief Bill | 03 Jan 2022 10:00 a.m. PST |
You were asked – TMP link Do you expect the Evergrande collapse to have a significant impact on the Chinese economy? 38% said "it will cause momentary problems for the Chinese economy" 21% said "never heard of Evergrande" 19% said "it will seriously harm the Chinese economy" |
Cardinal Ximenez | 03 Jan 2022 11:57 a.m. PST |
The CCP won't allow it to happen. |
Tgerritsen | 03 Jan 2022 12:39 p.m. PST |
The real question is 'Will Evergrande crash Xi?' |
SBminisguy | 03 Jan 2022 12:42 p.m. PST |
The CCP won't allow it to happen. It has already happened, now it's matter of spin and minimizing the fallout from their ad policies. |
Thresher01 | 03 Jan 2022 12:51 p.m. PST |
"The real question is 'Will Evergrande crash Xi?'". Well, he's up for a new title, to rival Mao, so we'll see soon. My guess is he will NOT be held accountable for this, but some believe fireworks within the communist party there could be forthcoming soon because of his bid for the new title, so…… My guess is if he does succeed, then his political opponents will be disappeared, and/or liquidated in short order. |
Cardinal Ximenez | 03 Jan 2022 2:06 p.m. PST |
Correct SB. I should have added "officially". |
emckinney | 04 Jan 2022 9:19 p.m. PST |
China's construction and real estate market is a morass of speculation, overbuilding, leveraged leverage, fraud, and overextended consumer credit. The bubble has been around far longer than a lot of people realize, and it's blown holes in a lot of provincial budgets. The government might want to hold back any collapse, but that doesn't mean they have the capability. |
SBminisguy | 05 Jan 2022 11:18 a.m. PST |
The government might want to hold back any collapse, but that doesn't mean they have the capability. Yep, and read some interesting articles that posit that Xi is so aggressive *because* of major internal issues like the collapse of Evergrande. This is based on a twist of the classic "Thucydides Trap," part of Hegemonic Stability Theory which posits that Great Power conflicts are sparked by a rising hegemonic power seeking to overtake an aging hegemon and emerge as the dominant power. But what happens when a rising Hegemon stumbles?? This article describes the "Peak Power" trap as a possibility -- that China is actually is really bad shape and it may take big gambles before its decline becomes pronounced. China Is a Declining Power—and That's the Problem The United States needs to prepare for a major war, not because its rival is rising but because of the opposite. link |
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