"European Defense Leaders Are Warning That The Belarus" Topic

…Migrant Crisis Could Morph Into A Military Crisis

"European defense leaders are fretting that the surging migration crisis at the Belarus-Poland border could spark another crisis — violent conflict.

"The potential for escalation is extremely high," Estonian Defense Minister Kalle Laanet said Wednesday at a press conference during the Annual Baltic Conference on Defense, a regular event that gathers the defense community in Estonia.

His comments were echoed at the same press conference by senior defense officials from Greece, Lithuania and the U.K., who all shared the fear of escalation…"
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Armand

Migrant Crisis

I seem to have heard that somewhere before ?

"I seem to have heard that somewhere before ?"

Yep. Artificially-generated crises are a great tool for autocrats.

From wich countries are majority of migrants

Strange how the migrant crisis hasnt led to a war in Italy,Greece,Turkey,the UK,Hungary---Oh Belarus isnt Nato….war is suddenly an option….go figure that one.

It is simple, where there is no NATO but muscovites, there is war.
NATO is the only peacekeeper.

A lot of the migrants are from the Kurdish autonomic region of Iraq.

War was fairly close between Turkey and Greece when Greece refused to accept migrants from Turkey. Turkish fighters flew very provocative close to Greece and Turkish warships acted aggressively against Greek ships.

In this crisis Russian bombers have flown in Belarus airspace close to the Polish border.

Belarus is flying in migrants from MENA and truck them to the border. I would call that hybrid warfare.

Thanks

Armand

What Life Is Like In Belarus

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Armand

I've been travelling to Byelorussia regularly from 1995 to last-year-before-covid. I've even been staying in the same hotels the author is mentioning here.

I've seen how popular Lukashenko was in the beginning – and it was exactly bcs he kept Soviet Union style system, limited privatization, was providing large dotations to the industry and agriculture. He himself was regularly pointing a finger on destabilized and robbed Russia and scaring his people that if they pick a different way, their country will end the same as their eastern neighbour.
What he was always forgetting to say, that they were living on borrowed time and money. Money mostly came from Russia in credits and loans with no interest, transit payments for oil and gas and re-export of processed oil from one side, and banned food from Europe on the other side.
Like Erdogan, he tried to navigate between Russia and the west with blackmails. lies and threats. Most of the money-making industry belongs to him, so he indirectly employs millions of people.
The problem is, that after last year crackdown he can't hope to get the support from the West, he has to rely on China nd Russia. And we are no longer going to support him for free, without more integration of Byelorussia. Chinese are in a buying mode, taking control of the power gen, electronics and some other industries where Lukashenko had to sell the actives to keep tha country afloat, so wwhen/if teh country will be intergrated into union state, China will be controiling plenty of resources.
In short, they will go through shock market changes 25 years later than their neighbours. This is the price they will have to pay for former stability which can't be kept anymore and just turned into stagnation with a president for life, who is no longer popular.

Thanks!.

Sounds pretty the same of a South/Central American lider at his best…

Armand

Is not Belarus basically still in Russia's/Putin's orbit ?

No doubt of that….

Armand

barin1 is he becoming a problem for russia
russia is putting in troops on exercise there ,could russia pull a fast one and take him out ?

How The Crisis On The Polish – Belarus Border Can Escalate Into A War

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Armand

Well he is about as loyal to Russia as Pakistan is loyal to US.
Russia was trying to support another candidate at the last president election, he was put in prison, however Western press writes only about detained "pro-democrtaic" candidates.
For years before post-election crackdown Lukashenko was selling fuel, processed from discounted Russian oil to Ukraine. He also has not acknowledged Crimea as a part of Russia and prevents privatization of enterprizes as he is afraid they'll end up in Russian hands (ok, they're ending up in Chinese hands, but it is another story).
He is trying to play his own game, and appeals to his population as defender of independence from both West and Russia. The problem is. that the population is fed off with him (not all, I guess he still has at least 30% of hard core supporters). Byelorussia is not a banana republic and we can't just shoot the guy or dispose of him in a coup, it won't work. He will be forced to handle a part of his independence for the support, and he will have to step down before next elections….or he will pull another trick to stay in power, but I think it won't work this time.

Thanks.

Armand

"Byelorussia is not a banana republic and we can't just shoot the guy or dispose of him in a coup, it won't work".

Well, Putin's agents could, though poisoning, or radioactive pellets/other materials do seem to be preferred in many cases by his assassins.

You're missing the point – we have the means, but it still doesn't mean that you can kill a leader of an allied country and hope that it will help your problems.

Russia Wants A New European Security Pact

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Armand

Another Warsaw Pact ? Don't think that's going to happen ! If the Russians want to stop NATO from going further East. Well e.g. Poland ain't going to leave NATO. But Putin must know much of NATO is a paper tiger. Especially with the major downsizing, cost cutting, etc.