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"Operation Karabakh Coffin" Topic


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04 Nov 2021 4:53 p.m. PST
by Editor in Chief Bill

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arealdeadone04 Nov 2021 3:57 p.m. PST

An interesting article regarding Azerbaijan's neutralisation of Armenian air defence last year. This was called Operation Karakabakh Coffin

It's in Serbian but I've translated here.


Armenia's air defences in Nagorno Karabakh
Quite dense mixture of old and new systems

- 24 upgraded Osa-KM (SA-8 Gecko) – short range
- 6 Tor M2MKM (state of the art SA-15 Gauntlet) – short range
- 1 battery S125 (upgraded SA-3) – medium – long range
- 3 batteries 2K12 Kub (SA-6 Gainful) – medium range
- 2 batteries 2K11 Krug (SA-4 Ganef) – thoroughly obsolete and probably being used as decoys
- 1 battery S300PS (SA-10 Grumble) – long range
- Various MANPADS and AAA.
- Article doesn't mention EW systems including anti-drone systems like the Repellent that were used rather unsuccessfully (ironically a Repellent anti-drone vehicle was destroyed by a drone).


A battery is 4-8 launchers plus radars, fire control systems etc etc.


Azeri plan
- An-2 utility/agricultural biplanes to be used as decoys to draw fire from Armenian air defences which would then be engaged by drones and loitering munitions. These would be taken off by a human pilot who would then bail out.

It was also hoped that the An-2 drones would force Armenia to expend its stocks of more scarce modern missiles like those used by Tor- M2MK

- The An-2s were loaded with explosives so if they weren't shot at, they would be used as giant kamikaze drones!

- Drones such as Turkish Bayraktar 2 and loitering munitions such as Israeli Harop used to strike identified air defence sites.

- Interestingly helicopters were used to strike SAMs as well. This had previously not been reported. The helicopters in question were Russian Mi-35 Hinds of which Azerbaijan operates up to 50. More interestingly they were firing Israeli Spike-NLOS anti-tank missiles at ranges of 30 km.

This explains low profile of Hinds during the war (I thought they weren't used) and why losses were low or non-existent.

- Extensive use of electronic jamming and other electronic warfare.

Estimate is that about 60% of Armenia's deployed air defences were destroyed.

A lot of this was confirmed visually – I've already posted past links to Oryx blogs' superb tally.

It should be noted Azerbaijan's limited fleet of fixed wing combat aircraft (18 x MiG-29, 18 x Su-25) were not used in these operations.

The Azeris did admit to losing 1 Su-25 with the death of the pilot.

The MiG-29s role in the conflict is unknown. It is known that top cover for Azeri operations was flown by Turkish air force F-16s.


But it still remains that the operation was the first time an integrated air defence network was neutralised primarily through the use of drones
----


Now it's interesting that:

1. Azerbaijan is a small country. It's traditional air power is limited (as mentioned 36 ageing jets).

Yet it was able to put into place a very sophisticated and coherent plan using cheap, expendable yet very modern equipment such as cheap drones, loitering munitions and ironically an agricultural aircraft from 1947!


2. Armenia too is a small country and even poorer than Azerbaijan.

Yet in the Nagorno-Karabakh it managed to deploy quite a layered air defence network (this doesn't count units stationed Armenia proper that Azerbaijan could not target due to rules of engagement/political considerations – basically Russians guaranteed defence of Armenia proper).

Most NATO states could not hope to put up such a layered air defence.

Due to cutbacks even the US is lacking in air defence.


3. The drones and loitering munitions as well as stand off systems guided by the drones (like Mi-35 launched Spike NLOS) made a mess of these air defence systems and basically neutralised them.

This has massive implications – the Russians and Chinese are investing heavily in ground based A2/AD systems.


If the Americans get their head around the right way and start investing in cheap combat drones (not expensive stuff like MQ-9 Reapers) they could create a force easily capable of overwhelming a layered A2/AD system.


But it cuts both ways. The Chinese and Russians could also use these cheap weapons to easily neutralise limited NATO/US air defences and then proceed to smash up NATO/US ground formations like the Azeris did to the Armenians (and also Turks in Idlib, Syria).


The role of conventional air power is interesting here – the Azeris/Armenians lacked capability with fixed wing aircraft and even if they had more modern aircraft, these wuold have been neutralised by the air defence networks.

The other issue is modern fixed wing aircraft require massive fixed infrastructure. A drone can operate from a civilian airfield but a supersonic jet needs a long runway.

These are vulnerable to missile attack (as proven by recent Iranian attack on US base in Iraq).


It should be noted number of proper hardened airbases has shrunk dramatically in Europe after Cold War. Many have been bulldozed or demilitarised.

That means those fleets of advanced stealth jets have only a few easily targeted air bases to operate from.


Could well be any future European conflict between Russia and USA actually results in fixed wing manned aircraft lingering far behind the frontlines whilst the majority of combat missions are done by cheap expendable drones.

arealdeadone04 Nov 2021 4:08 p.m. PST

Whilst on the topic of using old aircraft as kamikaze decoys, the Chinese have been confirmed they are converting ancient J-6 (MiG-19) jets into kamikaze/decoy drones en masse:

link

The US does this with F-16s (and previously F-4, F-100 and F-102s) but these are vastly different as they have no combat capability and are literally used as targets (and thus with expensive conversions as the jets are expected to be responsive prior to final flights as a target).


As the article states the US prefers new build and more expensive options for drones such as MQ-9 or new Loyal Wingman concept.

smithsco05 Nov 2021 9:02 a.m. PST

Thanks for this! I'm curious on anyone's thoughts here. If heavily layered air defenses don't work anymore against a for with drone and a good plan, is there a point in investing in current air defense systems?

ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa05 Nov 2021 10:09 a.m. PST

I'd suggest that the concept of a layered air defences isn't broken. Only that it needs modification to accommodate the changing environment. Bearing in mind much of what Armenia had was designed in 60/70/80s and the airborne threats of that period.

My guess is that 'Western' militaries probably think that hordes of cheap drones will be too susceptible to higher intensity EW – which may partly explain the large more capable system that seem to be proliferating among those militaries. I suppose the argument could be made that military commanders simply can't understand the new technology and its ramifications – but given the rapid pace of technological change the current generation of senior officers has witnessed I think that may be a stretch. Personally I'd though be considering additional close-in gun systems capable of dealing with smaller targets. But I'm sure the military-industrial complex would insist on an insanely expensive and unproven DEW system as the best option….

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