"Trolling China?" Topic

"…What's more aggressive than its close-in surveillance is perhaps today's callsign 'JUNKY81,' which is probably calling PLA names," SCSPI said of the consecutive U.S. Air Force operations off northeastern China…

Newsweek: link

China should consider manning up and not be so sensitive. If they want to dish it out, then they should learn to take it.

I went and read the aritcle. So this Chinese think tank considers a snarky call sign more aggressive than close-in aerial surveillance? Their priorities seem a bit, um, misplaced.

I just heard now that we are out of A'stan … well most of us … The PRC/CCP may make a deal with the Talis to occupy Bagram. You can't make this up !!!!

Never should have given it up in the first place. Or until we go everybody out.

We need to in their sandbox at every opportunity we get.

👍👍

I'm thinking that if the Chinese go in after the Afghan mineral wealth good/horrible things could well result. The Chinese soft power playbook will mandate civilian reps go in, not military.

These highly arrogant/diplomatic reps will avert/guarantee friction with the fractious micro'sub'regional'ethnicities which dictates differing protocols down to the zip code level.

Such friction will quickly/instantly brew up to violence which will trigger a Chinese armed response of peacekeepers/strike troops to stabilize/cauterize the area.

Of course the Taliban will respond with a measured/psychotic insurgent reaction.

Cooler Taliban heads will recognize the value of the Chinese presence and urge restraint right before they are denounced/executed.

Violence will beget violence and the Taliban will get out their tried and true book of freedom fighting/superpower humiliation.

Only they're going to find the Chinese will be using an unfamiliar manual of their own.

The Chinese will not be demoralized by casualties.

The Chinese will not be discouraged by world opinion. Especially when one of their first moves will be to isolate Afghanistan from all outside contact. Pull down the cell towers and pull up the phone lines. If you guys like the 9th century so much, let us help.

The Chinese won't be in any hurry to wrap up their presence and leave. Ask the Tibetans.

The Taliban could reach out to the world for military assistance. Yeah, right.

The Chinese won't balk at concentration and re-education camps. Ask the Uyghurs.

After 20 years of the Chinese the Afghans might well find they've finally met their match. That's assuming they scan till remember who they were.

HMS Exeter, you assume the Chinese are dumb enough to conquer whole country like USA or USSR were.

Most likely they will:

1. The contacts will be business people as well as diplomats, Again this is how they do it everywhere else including Australia and New Zealand.

2. They will buy off whoever they have to. This could include cash or building roads or supplying weapons or providing international support.

3. Bring in their own labour force and set them up in work camps like they do everywhere including Europe.

4. Any security detachments will be responsible for mine sites and related infrastructure and that's it.

It will be a very small geographic footprint and a very self contained operation. As I said they do this even for safe parts of the world like Eastern Europe.

That's exactly how they are doing things in South Sudan right now and that country is nearly as messed up as Afghanistan.

Westerners need to stop thinking about China's actions from a western perspective – the Middle Kingdom doesn't work that way. You're looking at a cross between Confuscianism, Buddhism, Sun Tzu's Art of War, Mao's Peoples War and the flexible Deng Xiaoping Theory – not western states bound by Treaty of Westphalia, neoliberalism, universalism, western military interventionism etc etc.

Oh and if the Chinese see the operation as too risky and thus unprofitable, they simply won't do it.

If you look at China's actions they are all extremely low risk.

Even harassing Taiwan with massed warplane incursions in low risk because Chinese know Taiwan or USA won't do anything to escalate the issue.

"Trolling China?"

Are you saying that would be a bad thing?

China as currently governed (??) is Imperial China
with modern comm, transport, mililtary, industry
and diplomacy.

Think about that.

Note the Chicoms have been already mining copper in A'stan if the reports are correct. It has been mentioned they may want to take over Bagram. They understand what a critical piece of real estate that is. As opposed to some … 🤔

The Chicoms are making deals with the Talis, etc. And if it came down to shooting, which I don't think it will with the Talis/AQ vs China. The Chicoms know how to take very draconian measures. Even more so than the USSR, did, IMO. Are not afraid of taking losses. And care nothing about CD.

Plus both the Chicoms & Talis/AQ have no love for ISIS-K. They may reduce their numbers further. They are less than insects to both …

Regardless, IMO … the PRC/CCP and the Taliban know "the art of the deal" …

2. They will buy off whoever they have to. This could include cash or building roads or supplying weapons or providing international support.

Well they've apparently promised $31 USD million in aid to Afghanistan. No doubt without all those pesky ethical conditions and financial audits required by the 'west'. That will buy a certain amount of tangible good will as will their official recognition of the Taliban government when it comes.

The unknown is just how ungovernable Afghanistan remains and if insurgencies do continue to operate will Chinese-funded infrastructure and resource stealing projects be targets? If this was to happen and the Taliban were unable to stop it and the Chinese unable to buy them off, what would happen next? For China to overtly interfere, against all their protestations that they don't, might be seen as massive international loss of face. Its also fair to say that on-mass the Afghani population can be somewhat mistrustful of outsiders and an overt foreign military presence, even by 'invitation', might light a fire under that. Also I can't see the Taliban on the whole being entirely comfortable with the idea either – and bear in mind they no doubt see themselves as the true inheritors of the mujahedeen's 'victory' over the USSR and as well as sending the American and its allies packing, I don't think they would be scared of going three for three with world 'superpowers' if China pushed the relationship to hard.

Great to think we are handing this tar baby over to China-good ruck.

Are not afraid of taking losses.

An interesting comment. You know it's not 1950-53 anymore?

You also realise that in the last 40 years China has fought 0 wars and suffered virtually no military casualties save some border skirmishes?

To put things in perspective in same time, US and allies has engaged in several major wars and who knows how many minor ones and suffered thousands of dead and tens of thousands wounded.

If you include US affiliated Iraqi and Afghan Armies. the death toll is over 100,000 allied soldiers.

China unlike US has an aversion to war. They have embraced Sun Tzu's art of war and seek to win through subterfuge, exploitation of greed, corruption, and human nature itself.

As I said, westerners don't understand the modern Chinese – it's illogical to a westerner that you would do something behind the scenes when you have access to overt measures of violence and coercion such as economic sanctions.

Its also fair to say that on-mass the Afghani population can be somewhat mistrustful of outsiders and an overt foreign military presence,

When did China say it was depploying troops to Afghanistan? It didn't.

Setting up a lithium mine doesn't require a large Chinese geographic footprint.

And it can be self sustaining – literally a hole in the ground with an airstrip and work camp.

Big mines in Australia are already like this. Everything save the ore is flown in/out.

The Chicom apologists are strong today

The Chicom apologists are strong today

No apologist.

Remember that time US, UK, Australia and friends REALLY, REALLY, REALLY UNDERESTIMATED the Japanese in 1941?

If the west wants to eventually defeat or at least limit* China it must learn how it operates.

And they have already figured us out which is why they are on their way to being the largest economy on the planet, have occupied the SC Sea and wield massive influence even in western democracies!

*Coexistence is impossible. Great powers compete. If they lose ambition they wither and die.

Remember that time when Japan REALLY OVERESTIMATED their capabilities and how it ended ?
You might think China holds the cards , but their military is pretty 2nd rate. They are much like the Russians.. plenty of smoke and mirrors with a very good disinformation team.

When did China say it was depploying troops to Afghanistan? It didn't.

They didn't and its very very unlikely (not just for Afghanistan) for a number of reasons some of them already discussed here. But who knows.

Eventually China's colonialist ambitions will get materially 'trolled' somewhere on the planet. The question is what do they do next?

An interesting comment. You know it's not 1950-53 anymore?

It's not !?!?!? 🙄

You also realise that in the last 40 years China has fought 0 wars and suffered virtually no military casualties save some border skirmishes?

Ah … you realize how's about the PRC invading Vietnam in '79, etc. link
link AARs mention they took high loses and really didn't demonstrate a lot of combined arms. You are so well read/smart you must know ?

From the second link :

PRC Losses :

Chinese estimate:
6,954 killed
14,800–21,000 wounded
238 captured[6][9][10]
Vietnamese estimate:
62,000 casualties, including 48,000 deaths[11][12][13][14]
420 tanks/APCs destroyed[15]
66 heavy mortars and guns destroyed[15]
Western estimate:
26,000 killed

That is a lot of losses in a short amount of time. AARs report they fought like they did the Korean … And took high losses in both conflicts. And nothing demonstrates they may not do the same today. Never over or underestimate you enemy. But we all expected the PRC would come at you in very large numbers and possibly in waves. Better to prep for that than otherwise. Any good commander would. But many here have not been in that situation.

Another good link : link

Another : link
From this link -

Owning to its large population and the huge disparity in economic and military capacity vis-à-vis Vietnam, the PLA relied on "human waves" of ragtag soldiers, a tactic used nearly three decades before during the Korean War, and a "scorched-earth" policy to conquer Vietnam. These tactics enabled Chinese soldiers to completely destroy everything in their paths, overrun population centers, and occupy strategically important mountainous areas and high spots along the boundary. These areas then became sites of low-profile yet deadly conflicts, which took place throughout the following decade.

Sounds about what I had read/studied …

o put things in perspective in same time, US and allies has engaged in several major wars and who knows how many minor ones and suffered thousands of dead and tens of thousands wounded.

If you include US affiliated Iraqi and Afghan Armies. the death toll is over 100,000 allied soldiers.

WDF does have to do with Chinese tactics ? Seems just taking another opportunity to bash the US & the West … Seems like bias, IMO … again …

Today as students of Sun Tzu … the PRC with buy it before going to war over it. But if they do have to go to a ground war, e.g. A'stan. I think we see similar tactics we have seen before. Lots of FA, lots of Infantry & Tanks en masse possibly in waves. Again they have the numbers. And again they care 0 about CD. These jihadis may not know what hit them or their friends, family, supporters, villages, etc.

When did China say it was depploying troops to Afghanistan? It didn't.

Setting up a lithium mine doesn't require a large Chinese geographic footprint.

And it can be self sustaining – literally a hole in the ground with an airstrip and work camp.

Big mines in Australia are already like this. Everything save the ore is flown in/out.

But that's where you have a secure situation. In Afghanistan it is almost inevitable that despite the Taliban acting as local security, someone or group will take offense at China – perhaps the genocide of fellow muslims in China will tick off a jihadi group that the Taliban don't control and they'll blow something up. That will force a response by the Taliban who will alienate more of its foreign compadres, some Chinese facility will get whacked and the Taliban will be under pressure, and the Chinese will send in some military units to help stabilize things…before ya know it, Bagram AB will echo with the roar of see Chinese strike fighters staging attacks on whomever…

Bagram AB will echo with the roar of see Chinese strike fighters staging attacks on whomever…

Last night at a dinner with the officers of the nearby USAFR base. The COL in charge of the base and wing. Wearing Master Aviator Wings. Said he had been to Bagram many times. It should never have been abandoned, until everyone was out. And yes the op at Kabul was was not handled very well.

Again today on the news reports are the PRC may make a "deal" with the Taliban/AQ to use/rent, etc., Bagram.

It seems that Bagram is one of the most key/decisive pieces of terrain there. Seems our civilian elected and appointed leadership. Must not have seen it that way … ?

Said he had been to Bagram many times. It should never have been abandoned, until everyone was out.

If you're interested, I read this article which says it would have taken a great deal of people to properly defend Bagram:

link

"It's important to establish these details, because these are the things people overlook when describing what has become one of the most popular criticisms of Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan: that he allowed the military to "abandon" BAF, or that it would have been somehow more possible or feasible to carry out a deliberate evacuation from BAF than from Hamid Karzai International Airport. This is false.The number of people required to safely secure BAF and its eight-mile perimeter in 2021 would have required an entirely new troop surge numbering in the thousands. When one considers the logistics involved, and the numbers of soldiers, Marines, and airmen, the number could have easily ballooned far greater than the number readily available for the task."

The author:
"Adrian Bonenberger is a writer and Army veteran who served two deployments to Afghanistan as an infantry officer."

Again today on the news reports are the PRC may make a "deal" with the Taliban/AQ to use/rent, etc., Bagram.

I can't help but think that would be a very calculated middle finger to the 'west' and a statement of intent other regional powers!

Looks like it could well be the modern equivalent of a colonial 'factory'.

If you're interested, I read this article which says it would have taken a great deal of people to properly defend Bagram:

Yes I have heard the same. And I was never there so I will take Bonenberger's experience on this. As he was an Infantry Officer as was I. It would have been a much better place to evac our people that Kabul for a number of reasons.

I read the Kit Runner too. Very informative, too.

However, IIRC the Military wanted to reoccupy Bagram. Again it should have never been abandoned. But the POTUS, etc., put a ceiling on how many troops on the ground so we couldn't do it with the limit of troops there.

Yes, giving it up was the first place, was an error. But yes to use it as a main evac point would take many more troops. I won't/can't argue with Bonenberger's experience on the ground …

He took a look at the big picture that the gov't was selling or trying to sell. A pretty good article. But again I was not there …

I can't help but think that would be a very calculated middle finger to the 'west' and a statement of intent other regional powers!

Yes, that has to be clear, sadly …

A case in point on Chinese deft eco-diplomacy.

youtu.be/TMVt7_7Uni8

"The Art of the Deal" meets Sun Tzu ?