Yes, I had posted that somewhere here before. Again the top leadership in DC/WH again made a very bad decision. Not listening to the intel months/weeks ago. And his GENs. Now look at how many US troops and others are on the ground now. They'd be better off at Bagram.
As I said on another thread :
Legion 4 27 Aug 2021 7:59 a.m. PST
If Bagram had been kept open, this wouldn't have happened, since it is far more defendable.
Agree totally …
Aircraft, attack helos, drones, and artillery on the ground could provide a lot of protection for any and all flights, if and when needed.
Yes … agree …
Roads from Kabul to Bagram are not defensible. It's at least an hour's drive depending on conditions.
As I have said before, CH-47s, etc. were used to take people to the Kabul Airport & Bagram. I don't think there was a plan to use the roads very much.
You would need a helluva lot of helos to ferry over 100,000 people to Bagram (that's current number flown out).
It's a case of simple mathematics:CH-47/53 – 55 passengers (1,818 sorties)
MV-22 – 32 passengers (3,125 sorties)
UH-60 – 11 passengers (9,090 sorties)
That's assuming full loads too and no US personnel onboard save basic crew.
You're also risking having helos shot down by ISIS-K oor Taliban who didn't get the memo.
This was to be a phased withdrawal … not the cluster we see here. You don't try to do this all in 10 days …
BTW I don't think the ACL of CH-47 is 55 … closer to 30 … back when I was a PL & S3 Air in the 101.
From the net[can't find my FMs!?] :
The CH-47D can operate at night and in nearly all weather conditions. The CH-47D is equipped with an air-to-air refueling probe. The Chinook can accommodate a wide variety of internal payloads, including vehicles, artillery pieces, 33 to 44 troops, or 24 litters plus two medical attendants.
IMO 44 people would be sitting on the floor and each others laps to get this ACL. The CH-47 has the power to lift 44 though …
I've worked a little with CH-53s when in the 101, they were USAF. The Army does not has 53s. But here too 55 PAX seems to be too many.
From the Net[wish I knew where my FM are !!!!?] :
The CH-53A carries a crew of four; pilot, copilot, crew chief, and an aerial observer. It can carry various payloads, including up to 38 fully-equipped troops, 24 litters with medical attendants
Again 55 would be sitting on the floor and each others laps, etc., …
In either case it would unsafe to load up 55 PAX.
"It's a case of simple mathematics"
Also along with the Lift Ships there would have to be gunships and maybe CAS, flying with the serials, etc. That how it is done. Or should be … As well as SEADS – Suppression of Enemy Air Defense Systems. Known or suspected … Again that is how it is done. Use different air routes as well ..
Bagram was a fortified position in a sea of jihadis etc. We would not be where we are today with this option, IMO. And other former military of all ranks up to COLs & GENs have said similar … So I'm going with their opinions and in turn mine.
Absolutely no way US could 'RETAKE' Bagram… AND be able to utilise it for evac. Taliban COULD not allow…. would 'blow the top off' any 'agreements'
True that is why it won't happen … it is too late now. It should never have been abandoned in the first place. Bad political decision among many others. Starting with not listening to the intel months/weeks before.
and Bagram would become a mini Stalingrad / Dien Ben Phu. Utterly useless for evac.
Had it not been abandoned this would not have been the case … For the Taliban to do full out attack on Bagram, they'd have to concentrate a very larger number of bodies with all the supporting fires they could muster. They'd be in the open per se and be very good targets. Anyone ever wonder why Bagram was not attacked ? What I just posted is why … Also the Vietminh took horrendous losses at DBP.
link Would the Taliban/AQ risk that ?