Thresher01 | 26 Aug 2021 8:56 p.m. PST |
We're not out of the country yet, but it appears our current CiC is planning on pulling out of Afghanistan in the next few days (8/31/21 self-imposed deadline), so, how long until US troops return to the country to attack the jihadis there, or we begin to conduct significant aerial and/or drone ops on them? 1. Less than 30 days; 2. 1 month; 3. 2 – 3 months; 4. 4 – 6 months; 5. 7 – 9 months; 6. 10 – 12 months; 7. more than 12 months; 8. more than 24 months; 9. more than 36 months; 10. 4 – 5 years; 11. 6+ years; 12. 10+ years; 13. or never. My money is on option 3, 2 – 3 months, just because we tend to be a little slow to deal with major issues.
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emckinney | 26 Aug 2021 10:50 p.m. PST |
U.S. troops returning? No Air strikes? Maybe. Drones? Yes. Cheap and you don't have to risk American lives. Perfect when you want to do something--or be to seen to be doing something. |
Martin Rapier | 26 Aug 2021 11:48 p.m. PST |
Ground ops? Not for many years, I think we've had enough of land wars in Asia for a while, and what would be the mission? AFAIK the idea of exporting Western democracy to bad regimes at gun point ended when Bush and Blair left office. |
nickinsomerset | 27 Aug 2021 12:58 a.m. PST |
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robert piepenbrink | 27 Aug 2021 2:44 a.m. PST |
This paints no miniatures. If you want a miniatures question, ask who invades Afghanistan next. China? India? |
John the OFM | 27 Aug 2021 2:50 a.m. PST |
Or how about… If Pakistan and China go to war over Afghanistan, which side should we support? |
Chimpy | 27 Aug 2021 2:54 a.m. PST |
So how long did it take the US to get back to Vietnam? My guess is 13. Never. |
robert piepenbrink | 27 Aug 2021 3:46 a.m. PST |
"If Pakistan and China go to war over Afghanistan, which side should we support?" That's foreign policy, not miniatures. That said, I'd be interested in knowing why you think there would still be a US, and why it would want to take sides. |
etotheipi | 27 Aug 2021 5:06 a.m. PST |
AFAIK the idea of exporting Western democracy to bad regimes at gun point ended when Bush and Blair left office. The idea was killed by alternating administrations either supporting the idea or not. You can't make that happen without commitment. The idea is not dead, either. It's still ongoing in Germany, Japan, and Korea. After five decades, those people are now partners rather than protectorates. "I don't want to do this anymore" = "They're ready to do this without help" is also a lousy parenting approach. ----- To the OP, it will take at least six months for the internal struggle and issues with China to play out into a steady-state. After that, it depends on what the steady-state looks like. |
John the OFM | 27 Aug 2021 6:29 a.m. PST |
This paints no miniatures.If you want a miniatures question, ask who invades Afghanistan next. China? India? The argument about miniatures is moot if Editor allows it. That horse has been beaten. India would have to go through Pakistan to invade Afghanistan. Just like in 1839, the British army had to go through the Sikh Punjab to invade. I still can't figure out how they managed that. Flashman doesn't cover that. Or was it through Sindh, as in "Peccavi"? Assuming there is a US, we would take sides because all presidents think that it's fun and necessary to interfere in the affairs of John Foreigner. Particularly in a "wag the dog" situation to distract from failure. It's what we do! It's part of the Great Game. |
rustymusket | 27 Aug 2021 6:46 a.m. PST |
And the beat goes on…………… |
Inch High Guy | 27 Aug 2021 7:06 a.m. PST |
I suspect it will never completely, totally, end. If there are ISIS or other groups who are a threat to the U.S., there will be SF or CIA contractors there hunting them regardless of what is said publicly. There will be factions or tribes within Afghanistan whose interests are served by aiding these efforts. My opinion, YMMV. |
USAFpilot | 27 Aug 2021 7:12 a.m. PST |
We are already back in Afghanistan. We were down to only 2500 troops and no US casualties in the preceding 18 months. Now we are back with 6,000 troops and taking casualties. |
Thresher01 | 27 Aug 2021 7:37 a.m. PST |
From what I've heard in the last 24 hours, it appears we will have to do that soon, in order to deal with a resurgent ISIS and/or ISIS-K, and Al Qaeda. This withdrawal only delays things, and makes our position much worse, since we've given up our important bases there. I'm not the only one. Leon Panetta, our former Sec. Def. is saying that today too. I imagine we'll have at least small teams of operators go back in to take out the perpetrators of the bombing that killed 13 of our troops yesterday and wounded many more, and killed more than 90 Afghanis. |
USAFpilot | 27 Aug 2021 7:56 a.m. PST |
Yep, and it starts all over again. in order to deal with a resurgent ISIS and/or ISIS-K, and Al Qaeda. And the Taliban have contacts in every one of those groups. They know exactly what's going on. |
javelin98 | 27 Aug 2021 10:03 a.m. PST |
Heck, I'm free this weekend. |
Stryderg | 27 Aug 2021 12:25 p.m. PST |
My guess is 2-3 months. After the next 9/11 attack and few weeks of hand-wringing indecisiveness. And I'll bet 2 cents. What are the odds? Could I parley this into a retirement fund? |
Blasted Brains | 27 Aug 2021 12:43 p.m. PST |
How is the ultra-high altitude cruise missile launch capabilities coming along? Marry a cruise missile with armed drone technology and on-the-ground intelligence and pin-point attacks can be very lethal. Just hard to know if the intelligence is accurate – especially in some place as fragmented as Afghanistan. Heck, do we still even use cruise missiles since we started using armed drones? |
Frederick | 27 Aug 2021 4:20 p.m. PST |
Formally? Hard to say but I would guess not soon Informally (Special forces, drones, contractors) – very soon Will be interesting to see what happens when (not if) the Taliban break their promises with China – the Chinese are not so merciful as the West |
Howler | 27 Aug 2021 7:14 p.m. PST |
Don't think it will happen. But I'm old and senile |
Old Contemptible | 27 Aug 2021 10:38 p.m. PST |
The next time planes are flown into buildings. |
Wargamer Blue | 03 Sep 2021 4:18 p.m. PST |
13. Never. No Allie will support the US. |